FFR Events in the Gambling Hall

[FFR Events]

Originally Posted by SK8R43

the streak literally means nothing. you have a 50% chance no matter how many times you win or lose lmao

It's expected gains, but you're right that it technically isn't some sort of real force actively altering the result of any given bet. I don't think anyone believes that it is though, so I'm not sure what you're point is. It's all just probability, and in the case of expected gains, probability of sets as opposed to single bets.

[FF_rules]

Originally Posted by FFR Events

It's expected gains, but you're right that it technically isn't some sort of real force actively altering the result of any given bet. I don't think anyone believes that it is though, so I'm not sure what you're point is. It's all just probability, and in the case of expected gains, probability of sets as opposed to single bets.

Probability of losing a 9 set amirite.

Total of 5 10k's on table.

[SK8R43]

I know how the strategy works, and that you can literally get as many credits as you want from it. But losing 5 times in a row doesnt mean youre going to win your next bet, its still 50/50.
You can still lose 5 times, place a 500k, take some bets and still win the 500k. :P
I just think its silly for people to believe that having a streak increases your chances, because it doesnt. as mentioned

[FFR Events]

Originally Posted by SK8R43

I know how the strategy works, and that you can literally get as many credits as you want from it. But losing 5 times in a row doesnt mean youre going to win your next bet, its still 50/50.
You can still lose 5 times, place a 500k, take some bets and still win the 500k. :P
I just think its silly for people to believe that having a streak increases your chances, because it doesnt. as mentioned

The whole point of expected gains is that you are playing the probability of the set, not the probability of a single bet. It is absolutely true that the probability of the bet you place or take will always be 50/50, but it's the set (1/2*n) we are staking our credits on. Not taking bets after a certain point due to your loss streak is an extension of this, because if you win during that time, the set is over.

I'm basically putting my money on a coin flip resulting in heads at least once in a set of 10, as opposed to putting that money on it for a single flip. It doesn't have to happen, but it's unlikely that it won't.

[FF_rules]

Originally Posted by FFR Events

I'm basically putting my money on a coin flip resulting in heads at least once in a set of 10, as opposed to putting that money on it for a single flip. It doesn't have to happen, but it's unlikely that it won't.

To continue; the amount you win from a 1/10 flip is many times less than a straight up double or nothing. Honestly it's a low risk low reward style that requires large funds to get anywhere lol.

Even if you ride the gauntlet and finally win after losing everything prior to 500k, because you staked for the set you only win about as much as a double or nothing on the 50k. That said; losing that 500k too means you basically just tanked 900k.

I agree that riding the gauntlet is a false positive so long as you understand that 50/50 means it's entirely possible to lose 10 in a row. But you have to realize 50/50 is still a fair probability to stake the other 9 being at least one heads.

[FF_rules]

10,000 37 minutes ago Won
10,000 47 minutes ago Won
10,000 49 minutes ago Lost
10,000 54 minutes ago Won
10,000 59 minutes ago Won

sweet.

[FFR Events]

Originally Posted by FF_rules

To continue; the amount you win from a 1/10 flip is many times less than a straight up double or nothing. Honestly it's a low risk low reward style that requires large funds to get anywhere lol.

Well it depends on where you start, and how many losses you're willing to give yourself. Honestly the gains aren't bad at all for what I've been doing, excluding the big bet I won I got nearly 100k yesterday, and I've gotten more before. It does take far longer than if I were to just win a single 100k bet of course, but the speed really isn't too bad if the hall has a little activity.

Also nice 10k wins, just got one myself!

[FF_rules]

spent 133,240 credits buying every song I didn't own in the shop. Now to get myself back to 150k lol

Put a 50k up.

[SK8R43]

Originally Posted by FFR Events

The whole point of expected gains is that you are playing the probability of the set, not the probability of a single bet. It is absolutely true that the probability of the bet you place or take will always be 50/50, but it's the set (1/2*n) we are staking our credits on. Not taking bets after a certain point due to your loss streak is an extension of this, because if you win during that time, the set is over.

I'm basically putting my money on a coin flip resulting in heads at least once in a set of 10, as opposed to putting that money on it for a single flip. It doesn't have to happen, but it's unlikely that it won't.

Yeah, but it doesnt matter if you take one and win or lose, the probability is still 50/50. Or if you wait and wait and dont take any bets, the probability is still 50% no matter what your streak is. Flip a coin, theres a 50% chance of heads and a 50% chance of tails. if you get heads, it doesnt mean you will get tails next flip, its still 50/50. If you get 7 heads in a row, theres still a 50% chance you will get heads again, no matter the streak.
I get the whole do 10, 50, 100 etc and you will eventually win. but taking bets inbetween waiting doesnt do anything really.
Unless this is just going over my head.

[Mahou]

Woot, won 50k.

[FF_rules]

Originally Posted by Mahou

Woot, won 50k.

50,000 4 minutes ago Lost

Mahouplzz

[FF_rules]

Originally Posted by SK8R43

I get the whole do 10, 50, 100 etc and you will eventually win. but taking bets inbetween waiting doesnt do anything really.

Back when I had 2mil I was doing the 1k 5k 10k line up 3 times simultaneously. Just gotta keep trap. (I bombed a 500k somewhere in there a few times though and now i'm here)

[Mahou]

And just won another 10k. 65k credits won today. I'm done.

[FF_rules]

Originally Posted by Mahou

And just won another 10k. 65k credits won today. I'm done.

That was mines too... Mahou ...
5,000 5 minutes ago Lost
10,000 5 minutes ago Lost
50,000 7 minutes ago Lost

[Mahou]

Okay I lied, 90k won.

[FF_rules]

Originally Posted by Mahou

Okay I lied, 90k won.

25,000 10 minutes ago Lost

Can I report mahou for collabing with a higher power? I'm done for now Mahou wrecked me lol.

[Mahou]

Sorry mang.

[FF_rules]

Originally Posted by Mahou

Sorry mang.

It's all good. I'll make it back eventually =p

[FFR Events]

Originally Posted by SK8R43

Yeah, but it doesnt matter if you take one and win or lose, the probability is still 50/50. Or if you wait and wait and dont take any bets, the probability is still 50% no matter what your streak is. Flip a coin, theres a 50% chance of heads and a 50% chance of tails. if you get heads, it doesnt mean you will get tails next flip, its still 50/50. If you get 7 heads in a row, theres still a 50% chance you will get heads again, no matter the streak.

Expected gains set probability isn't really different from single bet probability. The probability for a set of n having a likelihood of 1/2^n in this case is just as reality altering as the 1/2 probability itself, which as you might have guessed, is 0. There are two possible outcomes, but the fact it's probability is 50% means nothing for the actual results that occur. However, given a large enough sample, probability tends to line up with the actual results. It is this phenomenon that I am placing bets under, except under a set instead of a single bet.

Taking bets in between modifies the set, altering the expected probability of winning or losing the next bet significantly. As I mentioned I agree with, this probability has no real world effect on anything, but no probability ever has. I'm just trying to make my bets based on how "safe" I am under the imaginary force of probability.

[FF_rules]

Originally Posted by FFR Events

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So off topic; is there an archive for every bet ever made in the gambling hall?