TWG CXLIX: Cedolad Replaces Out GAME THREAD

[Hakulyte]

Re: TWG CXLIX: Cedolad Replaces Out GAME THREAD

I am town

You should have said that sooner wtf..

Never lynch AA guys.

[Hakulyte]

Re: TWG CXLIX: Cedolad Replaces Out GAME THREAD

Sorry for having too much fun as a Medic Village Idiot.

btw..

@ fontisian: Find the Mafia, make him get more agro than you and you'll live tonight.

[Hakulyte]

Re: TWG CXLIX: Cedolad Replaces Out GAME THREAD

You should have said that sooner wtf..

Never lynch AA guys.

That's a joke btw. I'm trying to learn fontisian humor.

[Hakulyte]

Re: TWG CXLIX: Cedolad Replaces Out GAME THREAD

She's definitely more funny than me tho. I'll probably just afk, I feel like I'm taking space that shouldn't be taken by me.

[fontisian]

Re: TWG CXLIX: Cedolad Replaces Out GAME THREAD

This is kinda flawed reasoning.

Why is it flawed?

Haku: I already pointed out that dbp, storn and AA likely contain the mafia and SK. I think you are town, Blaster is confirmed, and Xiz and rzr are very likely town with their conviction. I believe that dbp is the most likely mafia of the three for several reasons:
1. He claimed to think I was mafia and AA was SK during the claim in part because I was not voting on AA. If I were actually mafia in this scenario, I would always be voting AA, as a quick lynch gives me the win.
2. He did not try to actually figure out the claim by looking over V's posts, as Xiz did, yet acted very excited when Xiz posted information pointing to the claim being real. If he was so excited, why was he not doing research himself? I suspect it was because he knew I was fake and didn't think he'd find anything.
3. When I rescinded, he echoed Xiz's confusion, but it rang hollow. I think this constitutes a pattern of him trying to immitate likely town players in order to look town, a common mafia tactic.

[fontisian]

Re: TWG CXLIX: Cedolad Replaces Out GAME THREAD

That's a joke btw. I'm trying to learn fontisian humor.

I laughed.

[Hakulyte]

Re: TWG CXLIX: Cedolad Replaces Out GAME THREAD

Why is it flawed?

Haku: I already pointed out that dbp, storn and AA likely contain the mafia and SK. I think you are town, Blaster is confirmed, and Xiz and rzr are very likely town with their conviction. I believe that dbp is the most likely mafia of the three for several reasons:
1. He claimed to think I was mafia and AA was SK during the claim in part because I was not voting on AA. If I were actually mafia in this scenario, I would always be voting AA, as a quick lynch gives me the win.
2. He did not try to actually figure out the claim by looking over V's posts, as Xiz did, yet acted very excited when Xiz posted information pointing to the claim being real. If he was so excited, why was he not doing research himself? I suspect it was because he knew I was fake and didn't think he'd find anything.
3. When I rescinded, he echoed Xiz's confusion, but it rang hollow. I think this constitutes a pattern of him trying to immitate likely town players in order to look town, a common mafia tactic.

I've read everything, but I stopped caring at bold part. Sorry.

[Hakulyte]

Re: TWG CXLIX: Cedolad Replaces Out GAME THREAD

Also, I think storn, AA and Xiz (not DBP), highly contains the mafia or the SK.

[Hakulyte]

Re: TWG CXLIX: Cedolad Replaces Out GAME THREAD

Actually, nvm that call, it doesn't even feel right.

[fontisian]

Re: TWG CXLIX: Cedolad Replaces Out GAME THREAD

Xiz is trying to solve the game. The others are not.

[Red Blaster]

Re: TWG CXLIX: Cedolad Replaces Out GAME THREAD

Why is it flawed?

The mafia would've known it was fabricated from the start, so any reaction fishing from that point kinda becomes moot given they would react accordingly with the knowledge that you were full of it. So you saying "And anyone who actually believed it can't be mafia" means next to nothing when the only person who expressed general disbelief of it was the person you were faking the check on.

Backpack's reaction for example was a mixture of belief and skepticism:

all of your checks, now

I have thoughts about the cop thing, but I want to watch and see what happens

if this is true, this is spectacular

if I totally agreed with you I'd be voting AA right now

I have some reservations

I want to watch AA struggle before giving him something he might latch onto

yes, and this is a major reservation of mine

Strictly speaking, it's possible if V was a wolf and left something in the wolfchat

Is that likely? that's whta I'm trying to figure out

That alone isn't enough to doubt you obviously

[Hakulyte]

Re: TWG CXLIX: Cedolad Replaces Out GAME THREAD

Xiz is trying to solve the game. The others are not.

I agree with this and I'm willing to throw Xiz in the Town pile. Yay for you Xiz.

[fontisian]

Re: TWG CXLIX: Cedolad Replaces Out GAME THREAD

The mafia would've known it was fabricated from the start, so any reaction fishing from that point kinda becomes moot given they would react accordingly with the knowledge that you were full of it. So you saying "And anyone who actually believed it can't be mafia" means next to nothing when the only person who expressed general disbelief of it was the person you were faking the check on.

Backpack's reaction for example was a mixture of belief and skepticism:

I'm not saying anyone who pretended to believe it, I'm saying anyone who actually believed.

For example, I believe that Xiz believed it. Therefore, Xiz is town. I also believe that DBP was hedging his bets on the claim, and it therefore more likely mafia.

In short, this is a tool that /can/ be used to figure out alignments.

[j-rodd123]

Re: TWG CXLIX: Cedolad Replaces Out GAME THREAD

yea the lynch pool is AA/DBP/xiz/fonti/storn

from what ive seen so far i'd clear xiz the most out of them, and i have liked fonti's posts today. if it's true that there was no wolf kill when haku targetted V then fonti is polarized to town or SK

i need to clear someone out of AA/DBP/storn then, is there any reason why i should be reading any of you 3 town?

[Hakulyte]

Re: TWG CXLIX: Cedolad Replaces Out GAME THREAD

I don't think V can be Mafia for a very simple reason.

The only N1 scenario where Mafia doesn't target Vendetta is the one where they hit the bulletproof vest.

If they hit the bulletproof vest, there's no reason for them to not murder the SK next night and throw him/her out of the game.

Therefore according to me, Mafia has definitely target V N1.

If Mafia target V N1, it means that V cannot be Mafia.

I'm fairly convinced that V is the SK tho and that Mafia felt unsecure about continuing to try to lynch V after I claimed that I protected him.

Everything so far is pointing me into that direction. Fontisian's play just raised that suspicion even more to the point that I can't ignore her anymore.

I also have a very hard time conceiving the existence of a world where you're Vanilla Town after fake claiming Cop and soft-claiming SK as a joke.

I also think the Mafia is in a similar situation with the Zenith ragequit sinking ship. #hi AA

The only uncertain left would be storn42 for me, but I think he's doing his typical scum-looking Town play and he feels fairly clear to me to not bother.

If there's 2 or more Mafia alive tho, this game is not going to end well lol.

Sadly, since SK can't claim, I feel forced to lynch that person first in what a normal game would have been like "a good moment to make some pact and do tactical stuff together."

Therefore, because of the rules, I'm sticking to fontisian and I'll have to pray that there's only 1 Mafia left in the game.

*shrugs*