Re: TWG XC: Deja Vu
If anyone TL;DRs this post, I will find you where you live and sodomize you with a rusty crowbar. If anyone thinks they're cute and jokingly does it, I seriously will hunt you down and sodomize you with a rusty crowbar.
"Could have"?
Again, I feel I must point out. Almost every day 1 lynch is human. He PROBABLY was human just because of that, without even looking at any other circumstantial evidence.
And then in a later post, you use the word "probably" to describe the likelihood of gun's role. Is it that he "could be human" or is it that he "probably is human"? Sounds like inconsistent lie management from a rookie wolf to me.
Not exactly.
Case 1: Freezinice is red and is doing his best to discredit a potential threat to his life.
Case 2: Freezinice is green (or MW) and knows that if he had been seer'd during night 1, the seer wouldn't assault him in the way that gun had.
Case 3: He doesn't realize that gun could have been blue without having necessarily having seer'd freezinice. Color shifts often can account for changes in playstyle, but changes in playstyle don't always denote a red shift. This is something you people seem to have forgotten, as you used a characteristic which could have easily been a blue attribute to justify killing gun.
Case 4: freezinice is himself the seer.
So, you see, freezin being the seer himself is only one of many possible subtexts behind what he said.
Because this is EXACTLY what I was advocating as my tactic I would use if I was the seer. If I caught a red, I'd pull **** out of my ass to hammer them. I wouldn't reveal myself to anyone. I would just hammer the caught red until he's thoroughly nailed and deaded.
He admitted to emulating my style in the brash attack to get things rolling, so I think it's entirely possible he'd try employing the same tactic I had said I'd use as seer.
He had little to attempt to justify a vote with. If he screamed with too much certainty from that ONE POST as evidence, it would look REALLY suspicious, and the wolves would definitely realize what was up immediately. I don't think gun is stupid enough to reveal himself as the seer by saying "x is definitely a wolf 100% for sure we should kill him I am absolutely solid and sure here but I can't really present you any good evidence ^_^".
He got those votes quickly. Usually when that happens, it's a good sign that you're ****ed. He had almost no support and when he saw the tables getting flipped on him, of course he's not going to be acting quite so cocky.
Go look at last game with me. When all you ****s started voting for me, I didn't play up the cockiness while I was still on the chopping block. I didn't become bold again until after I gotten myself saved from the lynch.
Don't expect a dude on the chopping block to ooze confidence, no matter how he was acting prior to everyone picking up their pitchforks and torches.
Those posts aren't necessarily indicative of role, but rather being completely and totally pissed off at bull****. Everyone came out of the woodwork to try to kill him and it was clear even early in the day that he'd be going down by day's end. Anyone who doesn't get pissed off at that kind of baseless and yet certain death regardless of role is a robot. It's natural human emotion to get mad in that sort of a situation, whether the player is red, green or blue. The only thing is that being red or blue is going to escalate the emotion because if they die, their respective team is losing a MAJOR asset.
Who said you were necessarily seer'd? The way a lone seer should work is by having two pools of suspects: ones he actively gets lynched and ones that he seers. These pools should be completely separate and not intermingle at all. Ones that he actively tries to get lynched should be potential wolf targets (as wolves would help thin his suspect list there), while ones he seers should be ones who likely would not be wolfed (so that his list of seer'd can give him a nice list of who is not likely a wolf but is still alive).
And no, manti, that's not to say that a list of seer'd greens is a useful tool that needs to be passed on if the seer dies. It's just something which can be useful for the seer to use to pick his future lynch choices and his future seer choices.
In other words, just because you're green doesn't mean the seer won't try to get you lynched, particularly if he hasn't seer'd you and doesn't plan on wasting a seering on you.
The kind of seer who didn't find a red the night before. The kind of seer who is emulating my style of picking people apart and assaulting them to generate discussion and apply pressure on suspects.
He was also not around during the end of the day. He had also flipped his **** and likely just didn't care anymore, having lost faith in his own team (or possibly even the players in general). I've had these sorts of moments myself as a green, but usually not quite as extreme, especially as of late.
That would kill you. In gun's situation his best bet to survive would have been to just openly state in the thread "I am the seer, you cannot kill me." But even that wouldn't have helped because there were too many people voting for him by the final stretch of the day that wouldn't be around to move their vote off of him and on to someone else. It'd take a massive coordinated effort that would likely fail, and as fiction pointed out, he'd still end up dead anyway so he likely wouldn't care to apply all the work anyway. I know I wouldn't. Only reason I pulled it off last game was because I knew manti had enough sheep to coordinate a save with minimal effort from me, and I guessed that manti would be willing to believe me after his posts changed from wild accusations of me being a wolf to "OMG I NEED TO TALK TO YOU RIGHT NOW" (which was clearly due to him having figured me out).
Actually, if gun was a red he could have done came out as the seer too. If the real seer pops up to discredit him, it could potentially flush out the real seer for the wolves to bump off, and it could buy a wolf another day (while getting a poorly chosen human to die in his place). Not that he would have bothered if he was so pissed off for getting lynched for such an absurd reason (even if it IS a day 1 lynch and those are never very justified). Reds who get lynched over bull**** get pissed off too, just as easily as humans.
DURPA DURPA
A dead wolf is useful to nobody [on the wolf team], and staying alive should be on the top of a wolf's priority list, even if it just buys him a day or two.
Therefore, by your own logic, if he's DEFINITELY not blue, he's also DEFINITELY not red. Because they both have such a value of self preservation that they'd never get pissed off and stop caring.
I personally would have counted the vote that would have made insta that was made at the time of deadline, but whatever.
And I think you said you'd be subbing-out players who got a phantom. Are you going to do this with u84 and BDN then?
This is how long I lasted when I saved myself from the lynch by coming out to manti.
But considering the alternative, it's still a better option. It'd either be me lynched during the day and another 100% human dying at night, or it'd be a potential wolf being lynched during the day and me dying at night. Even in last game where I was pretty sure that the person being lynched in my place was human, it was the best course of action I could take. In one case, there is 100% chance of two humans dying in the two phases, but the chance is a little less than 100% in the other.
Always better to be wolfed as a blue than to be lynched. Blues should never be lynched, not if there's any reasonable way it can be avoided.
If anyone TL;DRs this post, I will find you where you live and sodomize you with a rusty crowbar. If anyone thinks they're cute and jokingly does it, I seriously will hunt you down and sodomize you with a rusty crowbar.
"Could have"?
Again, I feel I must point out. Almost every day 1 lynch is human. He PROBABLY was human just because of that, without even looking at any other circumstantial evidence.
And then in a later post, you use the word "probably" to describe the likelihood of gun's role. Is it that he "could be human" or is it that he "probably is human"? Sounds like inconsistent lie management from a rookie wolf to me.
Not exactly.
Case 1: Freezinice is red and is doing his best to discredit a potential threat to his life.
Case 2: Freezinice is green (or MW) and knows that if he had been seer'd during night 1, the seer wouldn't assault him in the way that gun had.
Case 3: He doesn't realize that gun could have been blue without having necessarily having seer'd freezinice. Color shifts often can account for changes in playstyle, but changes in playstyle don't always denote a red shift. This is something you people seem to have forgotten, as you used a characteristic which could have easily been a blue attribute to justify killing gun.
Case 4: freezinice is himself the seer.
So, you see, freezin being the seer himself is only one of many possible subtexts behind what he said.
Because this is EXACTLY what I was advocating as my tactic I would use if I was the seer. If I caught a red, I'd pull **** out of my ass to hammer them. I wouldn't reveal myself to anyone. I would just hammer the caught red until he's thoroughly nailed and deaded.
He admitted to emulating my style in the brash attack to get things rolling, so I think it's entirely possible he'd try employing the same tactic I had said I'd use as seer.
I observed, however, that his stance was anything but solid,
and he started to break up and showed symptoms of withdrawal after only 2-3 votes his way.
Go look at last game with me. When all you ****s started voting for me, I didn't play up the cockiness while I was still on the chopping block. I didn't become bold again until after I gotten myself saved from the lynch.
Don't expect a dude on the chopping block to ooze confidence, no matter how he was acting prior to everyone picking up their pitchforks and torches.
The last few posts before his lynching were also extremely thoughtless and gave of the vibe of someone who doesnt care if they live or die. Typical seer behavior?
B) He went after me cause I "rubbed him the wrong way." Not a problem, however if he was a seer and bothered to seer me he would have noticed im green.
And no, manti, that's not to say that a list of seer'd greens is a useful tool that needs to be passed on if the seer dies. It's just something which can be useful for the seer to use to pick his future lynch choices and his future seer choices.
In other words, just because you're green doesn't mean the seer won't try to get you lynched, particularly if he hasn't seer'd you and doesn't plan on wasting a seering on you.
What kind of seer seers someone, then goes after someone else that they have no information on?
C) Even as he was being voted, he didnt even mention the remote possiblity of himself being a seer.
Not sure about the policy of when seers should reveal themselves, but i know if someone was voting me and i was the seer, i would at least pm the voters that info.
Actually, if gun was a red he could have done came out as the seer too. If the real seer pops up to discredit him, it could potentially flush out the real seer for the wolves to bump off, and it could buy a wolf another day (while getting a poorly chosen human to die in his place). Not that he would have bothered if he was so pissed off for getting lynched for such an absurd reason (even if it IS a day 1 lynch and those are never very justified). Reds who get lynched over bull**** get pissed off too, just as easily as humans.
A dead seer is useful to nobody, and staying alive should be on the top of a seers priority list.
A dead wolf is useful to nobody [on the wolf team], and staying alive should be on the top of a wolf's priority list, even if it just buys him a day or two.
Therefore, by your own logic, if he's DEFINITELY not blue, he's also DEFINITELY not red. Because they both have such a value of self preservation that they'd never get pissed off and stop caring.
I personally would have counted the vote that would have made insta that was made at the time of deadline, but whatever.
And I think you said you'd be subbing-out players who got a phantom. Are you going to do this with u84 and BDN then?
This is how long I lasted when I saved myself from the lynch by coming out to manti.
But considering the alternative, it's still a better option. It'd either be me lynched during the day and another 100% human dying at night, or it'd be a potential wolf being lynched during the day and me dying at night. Even in last game where I was pretty sure that the person being lynched in my place was human, it was the best course of action I could take. In one case, there is 100% chance of two humans dying in the two phases, but the chance is a little less than 100% in the other.
Always better to be wolfed as a blue than to be lynched. Blues should never be lynched, not if there's any reasonable way it can be avoided.
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