TWG CLXIII: Allies and Adversaries - GAME THREAD

[meno_rocks123]

Re: TWG CLXIII: Allies and Adversaries - GAME THREAD

"Also it was a bad idea for lito to actually come out as seer even though I did that right before him with no mention of strategizing seer claims."

[Vendetta21]

Re: TWG CLXIII: Allies and Adversaries - GAME THREAD

Have any specific post you're trying to allude to, because I've read your entire wall of backpedaling. It amounts to "Oh shit, lito's the real seer. Guys, I was just joking I'm actually a human and I was faking seer so that we could clear a human in a game where it would be unbelievably foolish for wolves to waste valuable resources that may not even exist in taking out a VT."

Am I missing anything, or should I dig a little deeper?

howabout a bayesian analysis of how wrong i was going to be on the outset (somewhere around above a supermajority of the time)

it's still clear you haven't understood it but i basically point out that there was only a 40% best-case chance i wouldn't be wrong (and known by another player to be wrong) before considering picking lito, which introduces a second compound chance of being wrong (37.5% on average) of calling someone a vanillager who wasn't.

[meno_rocks123]

Re: TWG CLXIII: Allies and Adversaries - GAME THREAD

balance of probability suggests vigi because wolves have the ability to collaborate and 3-4 people talking about who to target might illicit details about someones meta and who they are more likely to pick out, additionally not all wolf roles are red only 1/3rd of them, so given a high-red scenario its 2/16 wolf roles and 1/16 human roles that are red.

Wrong. You're forgetting a regular old non-PR wolf. Let's assume we have 4 wolves because it's a 16 player game and that's totally reasonable. I'd wager that half of them were given PRs, so that would leave 2.67/16 players seering red and being wolves and .33-.5/16 players seering red and being human. That's 5.33-8x higher odds of a red flip being a wolf.

See how numbers can get thrown around like that? I'm really surprised you're so adamant that a vigi died last night when the game is so mystery that we could stack it in either direction by changing any of the numbers above.

[Vendetta21]

Re: TWG CLXIII: Allies and Adversaries - GAME THREAD

"Also it was a bad idea for lito to actually come out as seer even though I did that right before him with no mention of strategizing seer claims."

i never said it was a bad idea for lito to come out as seer. in fact i said it didn't matter after thinking about it. does it matter? am i missing something or is lito less vulnerable coming out?

[Vendetta21]

Re: TWG CLXIII: Allies and Adversaries - GAME THREAD

Wrong. You're forgetting a regular old non-PR wolf. Let's assume we have 4 wolves because it's a 16 player game and that's totally reasonable. I'd wager that half of them were given PRs, so that would leave 2.67/16 players seering red and being wolves and .33-.5/16 players seering red and being human. That's 5.33-8x higher odds of a red flip being a wolf.

See how numbers can get thrown around like that? I'm really surprised you're so adamant that a vigi died last night when the game is so mystery that we could stack it in either direction by changing any of the numbers above.

the set-up says nothing about non-PR wolves

[Vendetta21]

Re: TWG CLXIII: Allies and Adversaries - GAME THREAD

where did you get the idea there were non-PR wolves?

[ShadoWolfe]

Re: TWG CLXIII: Allies and Adversaries - GAME THREAD

Holy shit this turned into a treasure trove.
@Tokzic is wolfchat night-only or 24/7? Did wolves have access to n0 wolfchat? Are non-PR "vanilla" wolves a possible role?

[meno_rocks123]

Re: TWG CLXIII: Allies and Adversaries - GAME THREAD

howabout a bayesian analysis of how wrong i was going to be on the outset (somewhere around above a supermajority of the time)

Thanks for making me look up a word, but it turns out that it's a moot point. We've received three pieces of concrete info this game:
-inD is red
-You claimed seer while peeking lito VT
-Lito claimed seer

A red cardflip doesn't teach us anything. It doesn't increase the probability of vigi or the probability that a wolf even exists in this game. All it tells us is that a vigi or a wolf could be in this game. That's it.

it's still clear you haven't understood it but i basically point out that there was only a 40% best-case chance i wouldn't be wrong (and known by another player to be wrong) before considering picking lito, which introduces a second compound chance of being wrong (37.5% on average) of calling someone a vanillager who wasn't.

And that's a hell of a cover to have prepped in case you have now fucked up and you need to deflect your claim.

[Vendetta21]

Re: TWG CLXIII: Allies and Adversaries - GAME THREAD

there are non-PR wolves, mike?

[Vendetta21]

Re: TWG CLXIII: Allies and Adversaries - GAME THREAD

i didn't prep it i'm a certified quality engineer i can do statistics on a dime when i need to because thats what im trained in

[meno_rocks123]

Re: TWG CLXIII: Allies and Adversaries - GAME THREAD

where did you get the idea there were non-PR wolves?

VT isn't in the list of potential roles, so it's pretty safe to assume that VW is just as possible.

[meno_rocks123]

Re: TWG CLXIII: Allies and Adversaries - GAME THREAD

And I may not be a stats engineer, but apparently I'm a civil engineer now and I had to take a sweet intro to stats course to get where I am.

[ShadoWolfe]

Re: TWG CLXIII: Allies and Adversaries - GAME THREAD

VT isn't in the list of potential roles, so it's pretty safe to assume that VW is just as possible.

VT is listed as a possible role by the fact that the entire VT PM is at the bottom of the OP. There's nothing there about VWs

[Vendetta21]

Re: TWG CLXIII: Allies and Adversaries - GAME THREAD

VT isn't in the list of potential roles, so it's pretty safe to assume that VW is just as possible.

yeah it is

[Vendetta21]

Re: TWG CLXIII: Allies and Adversaries - GAME THREAD

whereas your assumption isnt safe. it could or couldnt be wrong but the post suggests all wolves have PRs because only one of them can use their power each night