TWG 200 Game Thread: Dichotomy

[fatfuck42]

Re: TWG 200 Game Thread: Dichotomy

I'm not too keen on a ben wagon considering how much townier he seems this phase.

[TWGma]

Re: TWG 200 Game Thread: Dichotomy

Okay, pixelated Oliver ain't fun. Time to swap to the other TWEWY avatar.

[DaBackpack]

Re: TWG 200 Game Thread: Dichotomy

then why are you taking his claim at face value?

I'm not blindly accepting it, it's just that his claim makes sense with the current evidence we have. He died in the night, and also "the game was over" this phase. that only happens if there were zero wolves over there, or a full TWO wolves over there. we can evaluate him later

and on top of all of that voting ben... when you've asserted that you believe he's town... and we've already established that no person is going to give us "more information" than another based on the fact that we are expecting a no-flip? am i missing something?

I didn't believe he was wolf given the circumstances. Namely, the wagon forming on him came from a reason I didn't agree with. But after looking at the wagons last phase, it makes the most sense if Ben is a wolf and his partners were trying to defend him.

Force is the clearest example of someone defending Ben, and I'm fine lynching him, but atm it makes more sense to lynch Ben right now (imagine if we lynch Force and he ultimately ends up town. we get very little. if we lynch Ben and HE ends up town, we actually learn quite a bit--- even about Force)

There's a faulty argument made about "no-flip = no information." The cardflip from THIS GAME doesn't reveal anything, but I highly suspect that the cardflip from the second game HAS TO reveal their color.

So basically, to get a cardflip, you have to lynch them twice. We'll find out for sure once we see Gold Stinger's flip I guess.

Furthermore--- like I said earlier, if a wolf is sent to the second game, I suspect that there will be some message about "the game is not over. neither wolves or town have won" or something like that. This is actually tremendously useful to us because it means that (assuming the other game is currently all town...) one of the new players has to be a wolf.

[roundbox]

Re: TWG 200 Game Thread: Dichotomy

I'm not too keen on a ben wagon considering how much townier he seems this phase.

specifically?

[DaBackpack]

Re: TWG 200 Game Thread: Dichotomy

jokes aside, i don't necessarily think the context matters in this case... i'm not going to believe a hard claim in a mystery role game, i'm just not.

I'm just saying that if you think he's lying, then he is a wolf. And if you believe he is a wolf, there also MUST MECHANICALLY be a second wolf in the second game right now. There mechanically cannot just be "a single wolf" over there right now.

Occam's Razor is currently telling me that the other game is most likely zero wolves, since we would have to be extremely lucky to have already nailed two of them. But it's still possible, and I will keep it in mind as we collect new information.

[bugkid666]

Re: TWG 200 Game Thread: Dichotomy

There's a faulty argument made about "no-flip = no information." The cardflip from THIS GAME doesn't reveal anything, but I highly suspect that the cardflip from the second game HAS TO reveal their color.

So basically, to get a cardflip, you have to lynch them twice. We'll find out for sure once we see Gold Stinger's flip I guess.

Furthermore--- like I said earlier, if a wolf is sent to the second game, I suspect that there will be some message about "the game is not over. neither wolves or town have won" or something like that. This is actually tremendously useful to us because it means that (assuming the other game is currently all town...) one of the new players has to be a wolf.

sure sure, this makes sense. i'm having trouble with you because on one hand you say "i'm not blindly accepting anything" and on the other hand you keep insinuating that everyone in game 2 is town. we should equally value both of those options, i think.
i understand you about the flip on gold tonight being important coupled with your suspicion of a new game state message.

i know all we have is theories right now but your adamancy on these points are what you came to the conclusion on and are not yet our reality. they very well might be, hell, i honestly think you're probably right. but we can't take your assumptions as truth because they aren't.\

maybe this post is useless idk, i'm just saying it might be better to worry more about hunting wolves here and less about game 2's circumstances especially since roles will be flipped at the same time anyways.

[bugkid666]

Re: TWG 200 Game Thread: Dichotomy

I'm just saying that if you think he's lying, then he is a wolf. And if you believe he is a wolf, there also MUST MECHANICALLY be a second wolf in the second game right now. There mechanically cannot just be "a single wolf" over there right now.

Occam's Razor is currently telling me that the other game is most likely zero wolves, since we would have to be extremely lucky to have already nailed two of them. But it's still possible, and I will keep it in mind as we collect new information.

:thumbsup:

[benguino]

Re: TWG 200 Game Thread: Dichotomy

Some thoughts I have on some people:

-fatfuck: town lean. I believe they were the first to propose the insta idea and despite things not working out as intended regarding that, I believe it was a good idea at the time as a means of potentially getting more information (that would primarily be beneficial town).

-DBP: Town. I feel like I've been mindmelding with him for most of the posts this phase. I'm not entirely enthused about his vote on me but his thoughts/analysis on the situation does appear genuine to me.

-gold: town, but only due to the self-vote...I'm having a very hard time imagining a wolf doing that.

-blind/subaru/logman: town lean. I didn't have much of a scum read on these people earlier and assuming gold is town, I'm inclined to believe that everyone else in the 2nd game is town as well.

-charu: ???. I like most of Charu's posts this phase compared to last. I'm not too sure what to make of him being defensive regarding the neighborhood chat with blind. On one hand, that piece of information alone is not enough to want someone out of the game; however, it is a small piece of evidence which is definitely not something that should be ignored/forgotten about and I'm getting the impression that Charu wants people to ignore or forget it. I think Charu's playstyle has changed a bit over the years (according to himself earlier), so maybe someone else has a better idea regarding how Charu normally reacts to evidence presented against him (as town and/or wolf).

[DaBackpack]

Re: TWG 200 Game Thread: Dichotomy

sure sure, this makes sense. i'm having trouble with you because on one hand you say "i'm not blindly accepting anything" and on the other hand you keep insinuating that everyone in game 2 is town. we should equally value both of those options, i think.
i understand you about the flip on gold tonight being important coupled with your suspicion of a new game state message.

i know all we have is theories right now but your adamancy on these points are what you came to the conclusion on and are not yet our reality. they very well might be, hell, i honestly think you're probably right. but we can't take your assumptions as truth because they aren't.\

maybe this post is useless idk, i'm just saying it might be better to worry more about hunting wolves here and less about game 2's circumstances especially since roles will be flipped at the same time anyways.

I mean I agree, I was just responding because you asked me about blindreper

I do kind of think Game 2 is important because it informs Game 1. If player X enters Game 2 and sunfan says "this game is still running", that is 100% useful information for us to use to build associations.

[DaBackpack]

Re: TWG 200 Game Thread: Dichotomy

Also uhhh

gold stinger has died.
He will be flipped at the same time as the other game's flip(s) for this day phase.

excuse me????????

[Charu]

Re: TWG 200 Game Thread: Dichotomy

Watch this.

Only when OOTC is turned off is when we can actually see the flips

[Charu]

Re: TWG 200 Game Thread: Dichotomy

By the by, I completely skimmed the (S) part.

[fatfuck42]

Re: TWG 200 Game Thread: Dichotomy

specifically?

Last phase it felt like he was posting for the sake of posting and just putting SOMETHING out there, but this phase I'm getting more of a sense that his posts have meaning and purpose to them. You can follow his progression and motivation. I also like that he was one of the few people who wanted the other game to insta logman. If I'm right about wolves being in on the haku rush then I don't think wolf ben would want to potentially flip a player whose alignment would help out town with wagonomics.

[Shadow_God_10]

Re: TWG 200 Game Thread: Dichotomy

Watch this.

Only when OOTC is turned off is when we can actually see the flips

I'm going to say something dumb but here we go

D0 OOTC was turned off yeah?

We didn't see a flip then so... Can we be certain of this?

[DaBackpack]

Re: TWG 200 Game Thread: Dichotomy

Some thoughts I have on some people:

-fatfuck: town lean. I believe they were the first to propose the insta idea and despite things not working out as intended regarding that, I believe it was a good idea at the time as a means of potentially getting more information (that would primarily be beneficial town).

-DBP: Town. I feel like I've been mindmelding with him for most of the posts this phase. I'm not entirely enthused about his vote on me but his thoughts/analysis on the situation does appear genuine to me.

-gold: town, but only due to the self-vote...I'm having a very hard time imagining a wolf doing that.

-blind/subaru/logman: town lean. I didn't have much of a scum read on these people earlier and assuming gold is town, I'm inclined to believe that everyone else in the 2nd game is town as well.

-charu: ???. I like most of Charu's posts this phase compared to last. I'm not too sure what to make of him being defensive regarding the neighborhood chat with blind. On one hand, that piece of information alone is not enough to want someone out of the game; however, it is a small piece of evidence which is definitely not something that should be ignored/forgotten about and I'm getting the impression that Charu wants people to ignore or forget it. I think Charu's playstyle has changed a bit over the years (according to himself earlier), so maybe someone else has a better idea regarding how Charu normally reacts to evidence presented against him (as town and/or wolf).

This post is useless.

The town reads are easy and safe. The closest thing to critical thought in the post is the Charu read. But it's so goddamn wishy-washy and it doesn't actually SAY anything. I bolded every expression where he qualifies or couches a statement in uncertainty. This is wolf phrasing. He wants to give the appearance of wolf hunting, but is 100% fence-sitting.