TWG 200 Game Thread: Dichotomy

[DaBackpack]

Re: TWG 200 Game Thread: Dichotomy

[twgv]celery[/b] oops

[DaBackpack]

Re: TWG 200 Game Thread: Dichotomy

goddamn it celery

[roundbox]

Re: TWG 200 Game Thread: Dichotomy

where I'm going is here:
eliminating Xiz here for SCIENCE isn't particularly helpful for the following reasons

Xiz is a good Samaritan and sacrificing himself for town - Good possibility we end up with no flip revealed, and from what we've heard from game 2, it doesn't sound like it's gonna get anywhere closer before EOD. This also means town parity -1
Xiz has information about the setup and isn't forthcoming - As it says on the tin. It could be advantageous for him to be entered into the second game. This is just free help. Most likely the anti-town option.

___

the scenario I'd like to see is a change in the start of day message in the other game. if we vote someone out today and their start of day message changes, we might have a confirmed anti-town on our hands. it could be confounded by the additions of the incoming night kill(s) in this game pouring into game 2, but typically I don't expect anti-towns to die in the night regardless of the setup.

[roundbox]

Re: TWG 200 Game Thread: Dichotomy

roundbox scum alert 📢

nice of you to join me on the celery vote

I know this is an old read, but I only bring it up because I saw star reference it in the other thread

[DaBackpack]

Re: TWG 200 Game Thread: Dichotomy

an important thing to remember is that (im assuming) nobody in the game knew that there was going to be a purgatory game thread. which means, wolves EXPECTED a color flip last phase, just like the rest of us.

this means that we can still use wagonomics in a more traditional capacity for last phase. In the scramble, wolves sought to maneuver their votes in a way that protected themselves and the team as a whole. They expected a color flip, even if one didn't happen, so they most likely intended to spread their votes across all of the different non-threatening wagons in order to avoid stacking in a suspicious manner.

This makes celery stand out even more.

[roundbox]

Re: TWG 200 Game Thread: Dichotomy

an important thing to remember is that (im assuming) nobody in the game knew that there was going to be a purgatory game thread. which means, wolves EXPECTED a color flip last phase, just like the rest of us.

this means that we can still use wagonomics in a more traditional capacity for last phase. In the scramble, wolves sought to maneuver their votes in a way that protected themselves and the team as a whole. They expected a color flip, even if one didn't happen, so they most likely intended to spread their votes across all of the different non-threatening wagons in order to avoid stacking in a suspicious manner.

This makes celery stand out even more.

I concur. I also forgot to add this possibility to my Xiz chart:

Xiz Chaos - See dictionary entry on "entropy"

there is a possibility that anti-town didn't get this information (dual games), so hypothetically he could be anti-town just wanting to jump into the other game for CHAOS reasons

[DaBackpack]

Re: TWG 200 Game Thread: Dichotomy

nice of you to join me on the celery vote

I know this is an old read, but I only bring it up because I saw star reference it in the other thread

I think it was the parenthetical "I liked it, ok??" that stood out to me as unnecessarily defensive at the time. Especially for ended up as an un-controversial take.

roundbox-- if celery is wolf here, how does that affect mcdaddio for you?

[the sun fan]

Re: TWG 200 Game Thread: Dichotomy

Votecount:
raeko (1)- kappa
xiz (4)- bugkid, xiz, choof, freezin
cedolad (1)- Xel
shadow_god (1)- shadow_god
force (1)- fg
celery (2)- roundbox, DBP

[Shadow_God_10]

Re: TWG 200 Game Thread: Dichotomy

Votecount:
raeko (1)- kappa
xiz (4)- bugkid, xiz, choof, freezin
cedolad (1)- Xel
shadow_god (1)- shadow_god
force (1)- fg
celery (2)- roundbox, DBP

WAT?

I have a Vote on Cedolad

[Shadow_God_10]

Re: TWG 200 Game Thread: Dichotomy

Also good morning

[DaBackpack]

Re: TWG 200 Game Thread: Dichotomy

im not opposed to a xiz lynch, not because of any game-theoretical take on his self-sacrifice proposal, but because chaos is annoying to deal with and I'd rather make him someone else's problem lol

[Charu]

Re: TWG 200 Game Thread: Dichotomy

Gonna bump the vote count from end of last phase. Funny made mention of she found it amusing that two of the five who went on Haku are now dead in this game. I want to discuss potential alignment guesses on what happened with the three night kills.

please let me know PRIVATELY on discord if the following votecount is incorrect

Votecount:
storn (1)- Xel
ben (4)- fatfuck, raeko, choof, kappa
DBP (1)- bugkid
fg (1)- shadow_god
logman (6)- gold stinger, haku, charu, ben, fg, funky
Haku (5)- Subaru, Force, storn, xiz, blind
shadow_god (1)- dbp
xiz (2)- Mcdaddio, spongebob
Mcdaddio (1)- Celery
Kappa (2)- cedo, Freezin
celery (1)- roundbox

you have until :15

On the Haku train, besides Blind (who I still believed was night killed due to his post and not because he decided to disclose me what his role was in full), I think the other kill, Subaru, is probably from some kind of town aligned vigi power since, before this, it was Subaru that was on track to get voted off. So it's just basic vigi play at work here I think since a no-flip happened. Oh, but Charu, shouldn't that have been Haku then? Yeah, it could've but that reality is that Subaru is the one that got the end of some night kill, so that's my """""""theory""""""". It's not much, but it's the best I can come up with at the moment.

Gold stinger is an outlier, being on the inactive person. If I were to assume, he may have simply died because someone who's 3rd party decided he was being way too mechanical, as you can see clearly in D0 when he made it very apparent that he wanted to lynch out inactives (which I agree with, to be perfectly honest). That's my best guess anyways if said 3rd party has motives to kill off anti-town (regardless if they themselves are anti-town). There's a world out there where maybe Gold was MAYBE a 3rd party himself and that the wolves or whoever decided to off him then and there, but I highly doubt this world is possible with the way majority of players were reading gold stinger D0.

So... where am I going at with this besides sprouting theories?

...

I have no idea, I thought I could get somewhere here, but the remaining names on the Haku vote don't particularly scream heavy scums besides their sudden wish to vote out Haku at EoD.

I still think Storn was having fun with what he was doing. Not a whole lot of him this phase though so that could be concerning.

I think TWGma had thread presence and was decent at following up on some discussions in D0. His wanting to solve the neighbor thing I guess is natural since I was pretty curious if there was others with neighbors D0. Can't help but feel weird having that stuff be disclosed though openly. Could just be me though.

Then there's Xiz wanting to be voted out this phase because he wants to experiment which kind of makes me question what he's actually up to, but I don't think it's anti-town behavior given what we know now ironically enough.

[Charu]

Re: TWG 200 Game Thread: Dichotomy

where I'm going is here:
eliminating Xiz here for SCIENCE isn't particularly helpful for the following reasons

Xiz is a good Samaritan and sacrificing himself for town - Good possibility we end up with no flip revealed, and from what we've heard from game 2, it doesn't sound like it's gonna get anywhere closer before EOD. This also means town parity -1
Xiz has information about the setup and isn't forthcoming - As it says on the tin. It could be advantageous for him to be entered into the second game. This is just free help. Most likely the anti-town option.

___

the scenario I'd like to see is a change in the start of day message in the other game. if we vote someone out today and their start of day message changes, we might have a confirmed anti-town on our hands. it could be confounded by the additions of the incoming night kill(s) in this game pouring into game 2, but typically I don't expect anti-towns to die in the night regardless of the setup.

This entered my thoughts as well, but I'm like... what can he do in that game? If he's willing himself to be in the second game and then someone dies in that game, wouldn't that make his mission, whatever that may be, be put in vain for the wolf team?

Or can a lone wolf in the other game submit no kills? I assume not since the second game apparently can't no vote.

[bugkid666]

Re: TWG 200 Game Thread: Dichotomy

I concur. I also forgot to add this possibility to my Xiz chart:

Xiz Chaos - See dictionary entry on "entropy"

there is a possibility that anti-town didn't get this information (dual games), so hypothetically he could be anti-town just wanting to jump into the other game for CHAOS reasons

you're probably right that lynching xiz accomplishes nothing for us, and yet could possibly benefit him. him dipping out and stating he won't be around for eod affirms this theory. I get that irl he's super busy but in-game this effectively looks like "haha vote me out because I want to be" and then "also not gonna be here to help so good luck with that" which only supports the theory that he is trying to be voted out. his intentions for doing that are unknown obvs (maybe even to himself lol)

I'm still of the mindset that this could be a reverse logic move by him. he knows by pressuring us so hard to vote him out, we are going to refuse and keep him in this game which is what he secretly wants. that being said, unvote for now

[bugkid666]

Re: TWG 200 Game Thread: Dichotomy

Gonna bump the vote count from end of last phase. Funny made mention of she found it amusing that two of the five who went on Haku are now dead in this game. I want to discuss potential alignment guesses on what happened with the three night kills.



On the Haku train, besides Blind (who I still believed was night killed due to his post and not because he decided to disclose me what his role was in full), I think the other kill, Subaru, is probably from some kind of town aligned vigi power since, before this, it was Subaru that was on track to get voted off. So it's just basic vigi play at work here I think since a no-flip happened. Oh, but Charu, shouldn't that have been Haku then? Yeah, it could've but that reality is that Subaru is the one that got the end of some night kill, so that's my """""""theory""""""". It's not much, but it's the best I can come up with at the moment.

Gold stinger is an outlier, being on the inactive person. If I were to assume, he may have simply died because someone who's 3rd party decided he was being way too mechanical, as you can see clearly in D0 when he made it very apparent that he wanted to lynch out inactives (which I agree with, to be perfectly honest). That's my best guess anyways if said 3rd party has motives to kill off anti-town (regardless if they themselves are anti-town). There's a world out there where maybe Gold was MAYBE a 3rd party himself and that the wolves or whoever decided to off him then and there, but I highly doubt this world is possible with the way majority of players were reading gold stinger D0.

So... where am I going at with this besides sprouting theories?

...

I have no idea, I thought I could get somewhere here, but the remaining names on the Haku vote don't particularly scream heavy scums besides their sudden wish to vote out Haku at EoD.

I still think Storn was having fun with what he was doing. Not a whole lot of him this phase though so that could be concerning.

I think TWGma had thread presence and was decent at following up on some discussions in D0. His wanting to solve the neighbor thing I guess is natural since I was pretty curious if there was others with neighbors D0. Can't help but feel weird having that stuff be disclosed though openly. Could just be me though.

Then there's Xiz wanting to be voted out this phase because he wants to experiment which kind of makes me question what he's actually up to, but I don't think it's anti-town behavior given what we know now ironically enough.

extremely good post imo, everyone pls read