TWG 193: Animal Crossing [Game Thread]

[TWG Molly]

Re: TWG 193: Animal Crossing [Game Thread]

Hello Everyone! Sorry for being gone for a bit. I was looking at the thread this morning and was about to post when something urgent came up and sucked the time out of day. After being awake for 30 hours and taking a short nap, I feel refreshed enough to try to get some work done in the thread!

I did a suuuuuper brief skim of the current phase (like just scrolling through each page in a few seconds) to get the highlights of what's happened so far. I know some people are waiting for me to post due to the possibility of a counterclaim occuring; I can confirm I have no counterclaim to make.

I reevaluated my reads after looking at EOD and reflecting on the lack of anything happening in the middle of the night and those roads remain unchanged for the most part.

I didn't like Phil's post early on in this phase regarding having people list what they would have done as each PR and also the post about having the town blocked claim. I might make a more detailed post about this later.

I'm currently trying to piece together what happened in the night with the info that Del gave this phase and the vigi claim. I'll be making a post soon for what I consider to be the likely possibilities.

[TWG Molly]

Re: TWG 193: Animal Crossing [Game Thread]

In regards to the Zucker wagon, my first instinct upon seeing a PR claim less than 2 minutes from EOD is to make sure the PR didn't get lynched and the best way to ensure that didn't happen was to cast a vote on what I knew was really the only other wagon at the time. If I had Zucker as a solid town read, then my reaction might have been different.

I'm sure that other people reacted in a similar fashion. At the same time, I'm sure wolves saw this as an easy opportunity to hop on an easy wagon. That said, the Zucker wagon is likely a good place to look in terms of finding wolves, but I don't think being on the wagon in and of itself is indicative of wolfy behavior.

[TWG Dora]

Re: TWG 193: Animal Crossing [Game Thread]

(not anymore, since we're lynching Dora now)

shaddap nerd

[TWG Dora]

Re: TWG 193: Animal Crossing [Game Thread]

alright so im going to try to accomplish 3 things before i sleep

1) wagon analysis

2) who the wolves are in relation to the vigi claim against an unknown factor (me). This is interesting because their blocker 99.9% blocked del so they have no idea wtf is going on either. So this could actually prove fruitful in regards to what stances after boomer claimed. This will probably be more relevant if/when i die.

3) I guess general reads after those first 2 are done, if i come up with anything else on the way ill mention it

this is probably going to be my omega dump as far as effort goes, i have a very busy day tomorrow. so sorry if ppl were expecting me to hover in the thread answering everything. Ill try to get on at least an hour before eod but no promises

[TWG Dora]

Re: TWG 193: Animal Crossing [Game Thread]

also this will probably out me but w/e i guess

[TWG Phil]

Re: TWG 193: Animal Crossing [Game Thread]

what I did is exceedingly common on other sites
this is just at the point where its annoying

[TWG Phil]

Re: TWG 193: Animal Crossing [Game Thread]

alright so im going to try to accomplish 3 things before i sleep

1) wagon analysis

2) who the wolves are in relation to the vigi claim against an unknown factor (me). This is interesting because their blocker 99.9% blocked del so they have no idea wtf is going on either. So this could actually prove fruitful in regards to what stances after boomer claimed. This will probably be more relevant if/when i die.

3) I guess general reads after those first 2 are done, if i come up with anything else on the way ill mention it

this is probably going to be my omega dump as far as effort goes, i have a very busy day tomorrow. so sorry if ppl were expecting me to hover in the thread answering everything. Ill try to get on at least an hour before eod but no promises

assuming you're not a wolf, the wolves should realistically have it narrowed between two scenarios
not exactly "no idea wtf is going on"

[TWG Phil]

Re: TWG 193: Animal Crossing [Game Thread]

also this will probably out me but w/e i guess

I'm gonna be a tiny bit sad if you're the acquisitioner just because its a cool role

[TWG Dora]

Re: TWG 193: Animal Crossing [Game Thread]

I'm gonna be a tiny bit sad if you're the acquisitioner just because its a cool role

nah i meant it will out my identity. which i guess i shouldnt have even mentioned but ~ w . e ~

[TWG Dora]

Re: TWG 193: Animal Crossing [Game Thread]

Apollo [1]
Maple

Dotty [1]
Fauna

Flurry [1]
Cherry

Julian [2]
Agent S, Del

Zucker [9]
[ Flurry, Phil, Tank, Dora ] Rolf, Molly, Julian, Boomer, Chief

Chief [1]
Punchy

Didnt Vote: Zucker, Melba, Dotty, Apollo, Mathilda

==========

Lets face it, with only one death and no cop info this is probably the most pathetic wagonomics table ive ever made. The saving grace is since 2 blues outted its not a complete joke. So ive tried to spice it up by adding elements that have a good chance of being relevant and using them to draw conclusions.

I am absolutely sheeping phils opinion about the 2nd half of the zucker wagon. Before del's claim it really couldve gone either way and its extremely unlikely that they would bus a partner d0 if there was any reasonable expectation they would live. This is true for several reasons:

A) 1:5 wolf town ratio means there is less room for error than a standard game that runs at around 1:4.

B) Acquisitioner as an additional threat to them.

C) Early bussing for towncred d0 against an inactive is not something that is guaranteed to pay dividends.

So once I soft clear the 4 people at the beginning of zuckers wagon (including myself hi haters) things get more interesting.

==========

Next I clear punchy. Someone playing on a team doesnt do what he did at eod and go after Chief. This is a fairly high confidence read and anyone sharing my headspace should understand it but to briefly explain it:

(Imagine its eod again and your a wolf on Del's wagon. Del claims cop with essentially 1 min left in the phase. You dont have time to coordinate with your partners, especially since its a quick topic and not discord. You have to do what you think would look the best and you have 1 minute to do it. Flopping onto your teammate Zucker for towncred is the obvious move. Not voting for chief, a move that will be questioned the next day.)

Since all the wolves on del did this individually because they thought it was the best move, this is the crux of why im clearing punchy and why i think this represents an amazing chance to lock the game up early by nailing 1-2 more wolves.

===========

So now we have the next step, the people on Dels wagon before he claimed:

Molly, Julian, Boomer, Rolf.

Notice how Chief was on me, yet he moves to Zucker. I think this looks worse than moving from del to zucker, because its a move that is pure gain instead of risk/gain. Those on Dels wagon had something to lose by staying there. They were incentivized to move to preserve del who had just claimed. Chief could have parked his vote on me and nobody would have batted an eye. The word im looking for here is Opportunistic. This was an opportunistic vote switch to try to look better by hammering zucker.

So we have my first wolf read from this wagon: Chief

==========

Here is where it starts to get a bit subjective and I do something that not everyone will agree with. I clear Julian. Why? This might just be my opinion, and this is a much lower confidence read than my read on punchy but Julians reaction to dels claim is not what i would expect from a wolf. He genuinely thought he was on the right track and you could clearly see he felt slighted by the claim and openly doubted it. Since this is an anon game i dont have the benefit of meta to color this read better but I am fairly sure im on the right track with this.

If Julian was a wolf he wouldve known a reluctant switch onto a wolf would do him no favors the next day. I would think wolf!Julian would be less reluctant (publicly at least) and less attached to his scumlean of del.

==========

Part 2 to come

[TWG Eugene]

Re: TWG 193: Animal Crossing [Game Thread]

I don't think being on the wagon in and of itself is indicative of wolfy behavior.

For me, what rubs me the wrong way about you is that you had over 15 minutes left in EOD to discuss wagons (please go to page 50 as I posted wagon development in the last 5 minutes), said NOTHING, and THEN moved to Zucker at 00:58. That's what really bothers me. Had you given a reason why you voted I wouldn't be feeling as off as I am about you

[TWG Tank]

Re: TWG 193: Animal Crossing [Game Thread]

ima let you finish but
ayy im back, signed in then had to step away
here for a bit

[TWG Eugene]

Re: TWG 193: Animal Crossing [Game Thread]

I can confirm I have no counterclaim to make

This locks in Boomer and Del as PR and anyone would be stupid to deny this as fact

[TWG Eugene]

Re: TWG 193: Animal Crossing [Game Thread]

ima let you finish but
ayy im back, signed in then had to step away
here for a bit

Tank, thoughts on info that Del gave and our Boomer claim please

[TWG Tank]

Re: TWG 193: Animal Crossing [Game Thread]

this is before the cop claim but whew this looks bad in retrospect what what



rolf jumps on del after this post with the below as the only reasoning afterwards



i would not be surprised in the slightest if there's at least one between rolf and julian, this smells an awful lot like trying to cover for a wolf partner

what what

think you're barkin up the wrong tree here at best with these comments
sure you werent there but the timestamps are there
not a fan