TWG CLXXII - TWGood End!

[AragakiAyase]

Re: TWG CLXXII - TWGood End!

Why do I fakeclaim when I'm under no pressure

That's a stupid amount of risk when fmpov as wolf I can just deep wolf to victory worst case

And if haku wins vs Mellon, we outright win anyway

[AragakiAyase]

Re: TWG CLXXII - TWGood End!

I mean it was obvious the vig was between AA and Mellon at that point lol

I would've claimed vt as wolf

Out of the VT claims I would look the towniest besides blind confirmed

[Charu]

Re: TWG CLXXII - TWGood End!

...So I was gonna do some math and realized I don't count for parity.

FeelsBadMan

[DaBackpack]

Re: TWG CLXXII - TWGood End!

still leaning AA being truthful here, but

if we mislynch today, AND there's an initiate, AND they get a nightkill (which is guaranteed I think)

we are 3 v 3 v alien, and wolves win instantly

[TWG Ike]

Re: TWG CLXXII - TWGood End!

I would've claimed vt as wolf

Out of the VT claims I would look the towniest besides blind confirmed

Nah I don't buy a VT claim from you at that point in the game

Maybe you do it but it raises mad suspicion cause you've avoided it several times before

[DaBackpack]

Re: TWG CLXXII - TWGood End!

I think AA is truthful and raeko is lying

I'm sorry

[AragakiAyase]

Re: TWG CLXXII - TWGood End!

this is the exact scenario I'm slightly worried about because it guarantees an instalose

So let's consider this scenario again

Let's say I'm wolf with a partner and haku is initiate. We've somehow found out that he is in fact initiate, or rather with him claiming mvx it's obvious

We can look at worst case with haku already converted

Right now it's then 5:3:1

Dbp confirmed, charu confirmed, blind confirmed.

Haku vs Mellon

If Mellon loses claim war game is over at night.
If Mellon wins claim war, 5:2:1. Wolves kill dbp, 4:2:1 going into day.

Again, if mislynch then gg.
If my partner is lynched, 4:1:1.
I kill Mellon, 3:1:1.

Now it's mylo because charu doesn't count

It's me, blind, and two others. It would be pretty easy to mislynch one of the other townies over me. And me not dying isn't suspicious when I'm just VT and unconfirmed, of course they'll kill confirmed PRs first.

So even with this scenario there's still an incredibly high chance of me winning. Fakeclaiming, while forcing the scenario earlier, has a much higher chance of not working and then the whole team dies because haku is outed, I'm outed, and partner is POE with 4 confirms

[AragakiAyase]

Re: TWG CLXXII - TWGood End!

Nah I don't buy a VT claim from you at that point in the game

Maybe you do it but it raises mad suspicion cause you've avoided it several times before

I can claim I was trying to blue cover because I had a PR read on Mellon

You yourself were trying to cover in the same way for me

[TWG Ike]

Re: TWG CLXXII - TWGood End!

AA that wolf scenario is sketch cause there was no death, your team would have shot Haku last night TO initiate him lol, you would have planned this in day chat cause informant is still alive

[Charu]

Re: TWG CLXXII - TWGood End!

I think AA is truthful and raeko is lying

I'm sorry

I know the feeling. I just don't see AA being remotely a part of the the wolf teams...

""""""""""""""""""""plan""""""""""""""""""""

None of the scenarios, except for mellon being the wolf here, make sense to me. Absolutely none of them

This is why I'm hoping maybe mellon can shed something, anything, to make it look like AA would do something like this.

[TWG Ike]

Re: TWG CLXXII - TWGood End!

I bbs I also think it's AA town Mellon vig but being wrong is game losing so I'm very hesitant to commit, especially when lynching Haku could be winning on both fronts if his role works for gamma

[TWG Ike]

Re: TWG CLXXII - TWGood End!

Mellon wolf lol

[AragakiAyase]

Re: TWG CLXXII - TWGood End!

AA that wolf scenario is sketch cause there was no death, your team would have shot Haku last night TO initiate him lol, you would have planned this in day chat cause informant is still alive

And it's considering the scenario where haku is a member of the full scum team, look at how I ran the numbers

Still wouldn't fakeclaim as a wolf there it's dumb and risky but I've talked about this enough

[DaBackpack]

Re: TWG CLXXII - TWGood End!

oh wait, if Haku is actually wolf-aligned MVX, where the hell did the third nightkill come from?

[AragakiAyase]

Re: TWG CLXXII - TWGood End!

I bbs I also think it's AA town Mellon vig but being wrong is game losing so I'm very hesitant to commit, especially when lynching Haku could be winning on both fronts if his role works for gamma

Mellon shot haku so it's highly likely she's the strong wolf pr that can strongman kill (mad scientist) or janitor kill so she needs to die otherwise I could be roleblocked