TWG CLXVIII: Capitalism [Game Thread]

[Shell]

Re: TWG CLXVIII: Capitalism [Game Thread]

honestly I think it's as easy as lynching McDonald's

their last EoD looks really bad after the flip

Same

[Wells Fargo]

Re: TWG CLXVIII: Capitalism [Game Thread]

How about you explain why first

Sure, I probably owe you that.

I personally think I have a really good read on the player in the McDonalds slot. Yeah, I've been fucked before, but most of those were a while ago, and I do have some small things that I've been looking at. I kind of already know what your response to this point is going to be, but when she was getting pushed on and made the line "If I get lynched now after I first start trying then I swear..." or something like that I don't remember the exact wording, felt pretty townie to me. McDonalds is also more likely to joke about being a wolf as town than as a wolf, and some little things while they were joking felt townie to me; it didn't feel like a wolf joking about being a wolf, at least not to me. McDonalds also pushed Verizon really hard when she didn't have to. If the game plan was to bus Verizon (Roleblocker Wolf) after UPS (vested wolf) died, then it makes no sense for McDonalds to try to save Marlboro (Vanilla Wolf) yesterday. It just doesn't make any sense to me.

Microsoft is in a similar spot for me but for completely different reasons. Town has done an incredible job lynching wolves thus far, I don't think anyone can disagree with that point. Yes, Microsoft's votes early on were worthless, and I do think that this is a point against this slot being town. After that, however, Microsoft was pushing elsewhere (McDonalds) for most of the phase, and voted Marlboro "for pressure" once it became clear that Marlboro was dead as shit. Now, this might melt your brain, but I think this is townie for similar reasons as to why McDonalds is townie for trying to save Marlboro (though McDonalds is more townie for it for sure).

Alibaba I can't really say much about, they probably should die. I think they're more likely to be a wolf than the acquisitioner, but I don't really want to fight someone if they disagree here. I don't think its likely he asked how he would know whether he was acquired or not or whatever the question was, get a response from me, and then still pretend to be dumb, it just isn't how dumbtells play out in my experience. He could be a wolf though, the game just would make a lot less sense to me in that case.

A point against you more than anyone else is my current nightkill theory, which right now is the only thing that makes sense to me, really points to the wolfteam having a competent member making competent kills.

My current theory is:

N1:
Apple wolfkilled
WalMart moved somewhere else (almost certainly China Mobile)
Disney vigikilled

this is the easy one, I think we all agree that this is what happened. Apple is a GOOD wolfkill because he was doing more work than everyone else, and we also can look back at Apple's reads list and see that his reads were pretty fuckin' good.

N2:
Wells Fargo wolfkilled
China Mobile moved somewhere else (almost certainly GE)
Amazon vigikilled

this one is a bit tricky to put together. China Mobile makes very, very little sense as a wolfkill, especially considering the n1 and n3 wolfkills (I'll get to the n3 one in a bit) really seem like they weren't made by TWG playing Chimpanzees like a wolfkill on China Mobile seems. China Mobile also just feels like they were acquired because of the almost completely dropped roleplay. I make sense to be the wolfkill because of the story that the wolves were telling. The story was "We don't want people who vote for wolves and do work to be alive," and Apple and I fit both of those. China Mobile just makes no goddamn sense after the Apple kill. You can basically rule out China Mobile being a power role, ESPECIALLY if they were acquired (but the wolves wouldn't know that, I am saying this point in hindsight), because its such an easy way out of being lynched, and it really was close between the two wagons. The China Mobile kill, if they were wolfkilled, is a kill of incompetence. The night 1 and likely night 3 kills are not. A team of Marlboro and AFK Alibaba (probably 0 presence or very little presence in wolfchat so it would basically be Marlboro by himself deciding) killing me doesn't really make sense, and a team of them + Verizon killing Apple makes I guess a bit more sense, but its still really strange, at least to me. A team of those two killing China Mobile is not at all impossible, but then n3 makes no fuckin sense because GE was almost certainly acquired, because he didn't shoot anyone. The only reason I can see for that is because he was acquired. There is literally no reason not to shoot. Shell pointed out a while ago that seer-immune is just a lot better than 1-shot bulletproof in this setup, and I think he's right, so I don't think GE popped a vest. We know the doctor was roleblocked, so the wolfkill getting blocked or saved is impossible, and so is the vigikill. Basically, the wolfkill being China Mobile made little sense on D2, and now on D4, it makes practically none. The only, and I mean only, possible alternative I see to it is that the wolfkill was China Mobile AND China Mobile attempted to acquire someone else, but it still requires the wolfkill to make very, very little sense.

(As an aside, if you are right about China Mobile being the wolfkill, I think the reasoning behind it that you provided on D3 *is* the reasons why they would kill China Mobile, its just still a bad kill)

n3:
Ge wolfkilled
Acquisitioner moves from GE to... someone else idk who

Mostly said it already, but wolfkill couldn't have been blocked or saved given the info that we have currently. Makes no goddamn sense for GE not to shoot, his kill couldn't have been blocked or saved, the only wolf left is the godfather, who is not nightkill immune, and the acquisitioner is not likely to pick 1-shot bulletproof. Last wolf really has no choice but to kill the vigi, they're the biggest threat to the wolfteam, they just have to hope that the doc doesn't save GE and saves Shell or gets blocked or was the acquisitioner or something. Their back is against the wall.

So you're probably wondering why I've typed all this shit out in a case against you being a wolf.

Basically, I think the wolfkills make the most sense if they have you as a wolf, mainly because they aren't trash and appear to be pretty sensical.

McDonalds kills people for meme factor. I think McDonalds is town, and the wolfkills don't really look like McDonalds would make them anyways.

Microsoft probably doesn't make kills like those, though I suppose its more likely.

Alibaba was afk, so its really just up to Marlboro to make a kill on night 3 most likely, and I don't think they kill me there. Marlboro has talked before about trying to win as a wolf by means of atrophy (similar to how Shell makes wolfkills), and killing me would do the opposite of that. The biggest obstacle I have is that I /could/ be wrong about the wolfkill on n2, and they just chimped out a killed China Mobile.

It really just leaves you. You would make those nightkills. Apple is a good player, I know you could see that, and you would want them dead. I would have voted on two wolves by n2, you would want me gone more than anyone else in the POE. GE was a kill you would be forced to make because you are competent.

Additionally, it FEELS like Verizon was bused looking at the wagon. Facebook has pointed out that the China Mobile wagon was nothing but confirmed town (minus him but he's confirmed now), so wolves should be on the Verizon wagon most likely if they're active. You would need town points to go deep in this game because you could tell you were on a team with 3 potatoes. You also just deepwolf a lot of the time in general.

I could be wrong here. It could be Alibaba, there's a small chance its Microsoft (him telling people to shut the fuck up when he was getting pushed on just kind of feels outside of his wolf range though), it just feels like its you to me. The night actions don't really make sense to me otherwise.

A wolfteam of Microsoft and Marlboro killing China Mobile is just too ????????? in my mind. I'd like to think Microsoft wouldn't make a kill that bad, and I don't think you would kill China Mobile there.

I think I've said everything now.

I appreciate you waiting for the case and wanting to respond/refute it rather than just calling me bad for wolfreading you, that was a mark of class.

[Wells Fargo]

Re: TWG CLXVIII: Capitalism [Game Thread]

McDonalds EOD looks really good after the flip honestly

they would've let the bulletproof die and then be part of the lead wagoners on the roleblocker, then all of a sudden they give a shit about saving the vanilla wolf?

I don't think so.

[Wells Fargo]

Re: TWG CLXVIII: Capitalism [Game Thread]

I really, really don't think its McDonalds guys. I would lynch them last out of the POE. If they're the wolf then I know deadchat is having a fit right now (specifically, Mt. FreezinIce is erupting), but I just don't think that's the case.

[Google]

Re: TWG CLXVIII: Capitalism [Game Thread]

Alright, give me a sec. I'm gonna go through with colored text but for some reason, advanced post settings shit isn't showing up so i have to do bb code by hand

[Wells Fargo]

Re: TWG CLXVIII: Capitalism [Game Thread]

If McDonalds is a wolf, how does she not have free reign over the nightkills given how AFK the wolfteam has been? How does she ever make those nightkills?

Plus, her (apparent) ignorance that Marlboro was a wolf, and her continued push onto Alibaba just doesn't feel wolfy.

Idk.

I need a bit of a break after writing a post like that.

I do want input about my night action theory though. I'll make a separate post for it.

[Wells Fargo]

Re: TWG CLXVIII: Capitalism [Game Thread]

N1:
Apple wolfkilled
WalMart moved somewhere else (almost certainly China Mobile)
Disney vigikilled

N2:
Wells Fargo wolfkilled
China Mobile moved somewhere else (almost certainly GE)
Amazon vigikilled

n3:
Ge wolfkilled
Acquisitioner moves from GE to... someone else idk who
Vigikill MIA

do we think this is what happened? If no, what do you think happened?

the only alternative I can see is China Mobile being a combination of the wolfkill and the acquisitioner moving to GE, and that doesn't really change anything.

Its /possible/ that the acquisitioner hasn't moved since N1, the wolves killed China Mobile and GE, but that one just doesn't feel right.

[Wells Fargo]

Re: TWG CLXVIII: Capitalism [Game Thread]

The reason the acquisitioner not moving since N1 doesn't feel right to me is because there is no explanation for GE not shooting last night.

[Wells Fargo]

Re: TWG CLXVIII: Capitalism [Game Thread]

I think I just figured out who GE was if he wasn't acquired, which is actually kind of hilarious. I should've figured that out sooner.

[Wells Fargo]

Re: TWG CLXVIII: Capitalism [Game Thread]

Also kind of explains the (slightly) schizophrenic shot of Disney, and the willingness to shoot me if he wasn't acquired...

I need to think about this a bit more.

[McDonalds]

Re: TWG CLXVIII: Capitalism [Game Thread]

i actually don't know why people think google is town too

[McDonalds]

Re: TWG CLXVIII: Capitalism [Game Thread]

that being said i still wanna kill alibaba lol

[Shell]

Re: TWG CLXVIII: Capitalism [Game Thread]

i actually don't know why people think google is town too

Better than YOOOOOOOOOOU

[Wells Fargo]

Re: TWG CLXVIII: Capitalism [Game Thread]

Largely unordered within the tiers.

I don't believe I have all the wolves read as wolves, so don't bother asking me whether certain people can be teamed together. This is a start.

VV
Wells Fargo. Our heads are in similar places right about now, and I value that as a sign of villageriness.
Walmart. They have had acceptable catch-ups, and have been pinging out people who are all bark and no bite.

V
Disney. As I said before, I believe I know who this person is, so where some might see their posting as strange, I see it as fully within their range. They're up here particularly for a few posts like actually making a reads list of Lil B songs and showing general self-awareness of their posting, the first post I picked out of theirs notwithstanding.
Starbucks. I don't like the case they're making against Visa, but it in itself is respectable to notice and identify. They also seem like they're having fun in the thread, which I would not peg as an anonymous-wolf tendency.
China Mobile. Their stance on acquisition and people's reactions to it, since it's taken up much of early discussion, is a good look.
Google has also had some perceptive thoughts, including asking Walmart about one of Alibaba Group's comments that Walmart really just misread and thought was unclear.
Alibaba Group has given a number of reads and thoughts in rather few posts which I like. I only wish their time allowed for interacting with both their town core and their suspicions.
Visa. I think all of Visa's posts can exist in the same universe and I don't understand the case several are making against them. Probably my lightest V read, because them treating people recognizing their meta like an expectation is not great for an anon game.

N
Marlboro. Absolutely nothing to go on.
Amazon. I don't think they ever got back to me on why they were specifically singling Facebook out when others seemed guilty of similar behavior, but they also noticed IBM at least trying to participate, which should be the main basis for our reads anyway. They posted the convertcase link, which while it "trivializes" IBM's gimmick, is a small thing that at least helps other people read their content. One nice thing, one not-so-nice thing, balances out.
GE. I have trouble figuring out their mindset. They've pushed a few people to do things, but have aggressively wanted credit for doing so, and that was in reaction to Visa voting them.
Microsoft. They've been pretty absent and thought expression, while there, is rather terse. Want to hear more.

W
Shell. This is newer, and the one potential association I can see right now. Shell presented a case they considered enough to vote Toyota after they'd previously posted that Toyota seemed fine, but then unvoted after what I consider a minor correction to their case. It's a case I would have called good enough for a first day, as well, and Toyota hasn't posted themselves out of that hole. They've also raised an issue with Disney but it hasn't seemed to stick. Even with Shell's thread presence, I can't tell where they sit on things, since they seem more inclined to opportunism and seizing posts in the moment.
Verizon. I'm with Wells Fargo in that going about the first day by trying to solve the Acquisitioner already is a fruitless strategy, but this is the subject of one of Verizon's longer posts. They also came in not expecting much that was serious, but then they continued to post frivolous comments as the game transitioned into its serious phase. They've mentioned a lack of available time, but they've also not given much over to making serious things happen. They also have no real reads that I can find.
IBM. They've recently hired a new CEO, to my understanding. I don't intend to hold them accountable to the actions of their prior, but their not posting for an entire real-time day is not a good look.

WW
Toyota. Largely a tone read here. Toyota constantly remarks about how first days are hard and has spent many words being skittish about sharing thoughts. That reads more like they're trying hard not to spew anyone. They also keep reiterating a "non-vanilla" read which needs to stop.
Facebook. Shows up, routinely posts fluff, and (I believe) wanted to spoil IBM's identity.
UPS. Also content to just check in and buddy Amazon that one time.
McDonalds. They're focused on Amazon, whose posts make sense to me, to a point beyond just not recognizing "wolfy punctuation" as a stylistic meme. Not a fan of their votes on Visa and their about-face on Toyota (similar to what Shell did, but in the opposite direction) from earlier.

I think I also want to believe that all of these townreads are right (aside from WalMart obv but that one doesn't count). The wolves probably shit themselves when they saw this list if that was the case, and the wolves just have to kill the guy who gives a perfect town circle that large on d0.

[Wells Fargo]

Re: TWG CLXVIII: Capitalism [Game Thread]

gonna iso Microsoft and GE real quick