jTWG LXXXI I Got Nothin' Game Thread

[Hakulyte]

Re: jTWG LXXXI I Got Nothin' Game Thread

So if you believe Andy and I can't be wolves together, your best choice Haku is to lynch Andy right now.

You're voting H&H regardless?

[Wayward Vagabond]

Re: jTWG LXXXI I Got Nothin' Game Thread

Why even vote H&H and pressure for possible instakill if you guys agree that it should wait a whole lot more ???

Also Haku I don't trust you one bit in this game but lets assume you'd be VT:

If H&H is lynched and is Wolf, you seem to believe (with Andy) that I'm the second wolf. If you're not wolf however, Andy or WV will get nightkilled and you'll be with 1 remaining confirmed PR, 2 VTs and 1 wolf, you'd lynch me probably (cuz for you I'm wolf and would win). If you get there however you'll see I'll flip VT and then the remaining PR gets nightkilled. You're left with 1 VT and 1 Wolf, and I could count on you to solve that based on reads and stuff I guess. You can win Town this way. Or at least make it to the final decision.

If H&H is lynched and is Tracker, do you still think I'm Wolf ? WV gets nightkilled, Andy gets lynched, implying you're VT again someone between Me/You/Sanz/Rapta gets nightkilled, if it's you, the 2 remaining VTs must solve the last wolf somehow. If it's me (if I were wolf you'd win here, so the IF doesnt matter), I also count on you to solve the last VT.

If Andy is lynched and is wolf, idk who you'd target but man I'd believe not me (??). So going with that, H&H gets nightkilled cuz confirmed Tracker. Then it's Me/You vs Sanz/Rapta and we gotta solve who is the wolf between them, Andy would've defended them in his reads post. If we get it right we win, if wrong, nightkill one of us and then Random.org the winning team. This scenario is if you wanna have the final decision with me (or if you wouldn't necessarily trust me when Andy is lynched, you'd have the same decision with either Sanz or Rapta)

If Andy is lynched and is Tracker, WV gets nightkilled, H&H gets lynched, someone between Me/You/Sanz/Rapta gets nightkilled, if it's you, I'd think Sanz/Rapta would lynch me (if I'm wolf Town wins), but then again I'm not so it's Random.org decision. If it's me (same thing, if I'm wolf, town wins), you have to solve the last VT and win for town.

---------------

SO, if anyone thinks Haku might be VT, those are the ways he can win, no matter if I get lynched or not. If any of you is VT and doesn't know who to trust at all, I'd have to say go with Haku as he's the most experienced player, unless that doesn't matter to you. However, follow the possible paths I mentionned and if you get 0 read during the rest, worst outcome is Random.org. Please lemme know if I got anything wrong or assumed too many things.


Good irl night all.

here you go repeating yourself again

[Hakulyte]

Re: jTWG LXXXI I Got Nothin' Game Thread

1) Sanzath - Null - Sanzath, your posts mostly contain the initial shitposting early game + mechanically talk about mass claiming. I'm happy you're willing to go with what I've been asking, but I'd really like to see more interactions between you and the other players. You have a few posts, but it's hard for me to gauge where you are. I think at this point, this is the fastest way to actually kind of lean somewhere. If there's a deep wolf that's fooling everyone right now, it could be you, but considering the state of this game, you're more likely to be town. Just consider that since everyone claimed there's nothing to hide so, if you can think of ways to help us figure out your alignment, you should go for it. You're not even in danger of anything, it's just for helping with the process of elimination with the other players.

2) Hateandhatred - ...

(lolol procrastinating work killmepls)

add to that the fact he's threatening to get me lynch because he thinks that is the only thing I want to avoid.

Also hes targetting opkiller maybe cuz he was hesitating on lynching Haku next, which he convenitenly omitted from his round 1 analysis.

Also his game overview is nice, but thats only cuz hes autistic as fuc

k srsly bye my boss is gonna kill me if I dont work LOL

:thinking:

3) xXOpKillerXx - There's something about your game that makes me wonder what you've been trying to accomplish. I feel like the more you post, the more I have questions instead of feeling like we're getting somewhere. That's normally not a good sign. It's hard to understand your stance about what to do with the state of the game imo and why. If you're town, you really need to choose and try to defend H&H vs Andy right now. You can ignore everything else for this phase.

4) Rapta - There's a weird conflict with Rapta and H&H. If H&H flips wolf, I believe this would clear Rapta. If H&H flips Town/Tracker, Rapta is not clear. His actions have been pretty straightforward all game and I don't see any real attempt to push any agenda etc. Probably town.

5) Wayward Vagabond - Un-CC'd Watcher. Always Town.

6) Hakulyte - I won't comment about myself. WV/Andy can do that I guess. I'm just trying to push probabilities.

7) andy-o24 - He was kinda UTR and claimed Tracker. Playstyle fits with role expectations, but

[andy-o24]

Re: jTWG LXXXI I Got Nothin' Game Thread

unvote

Shit, I didn't know the count.

[Hakulyte]

Re: jTWG LXXXI I Got Nothin' Game Thread

Andy, iso H&H and try to figure out what are the slips if wolf.
H&H, iso Andy and try to figure out what are the slips if wolf.

:^)

[Hakulyte]

Re: jTWG LXXXI I Got Nothin' Game Thread

7) andy-o24 - He was kinda UTR and claimed Tracker. Playstyle fits with role expectations, but [...]

[...] it's very hard to evaluate him based on that.

I had a problem with roundbox a bunch of games ago where I was defiant when I saw other players think the same thing as me. I'd probably lean Andy town for that. H&H just have so many inconsistencies that it's hard to just throw the newbie card and be like "well, maybe he did all of this because new".

meh.

tl;dr: I still have H&H/Op in mind and I will have a hard time to reconsider until that PR thing happen.

btw, whoever is town tracker, if you have things in mind that you want to mention for the next phase, you should probably post it now even if it's just theories etc.

[Hateandhatred]

Re: jTWG LXXXI I Got Nothin' Game Thread

GUYS DONT LYNCH ME. if you do the game ends.

7 players left

1 mislynch + 2 wolf kills = 2town, 2wolves.

if you still want me out by 9AM Eastern Time, I will request the modkill so that we survive. that way, at least one wolf will be out.

I litterally left work to type this, so PLEASE WAIT!

[Hakulyte]

Re: jTWG LXXXI I Got Nothin' Game Thread

1 mislynch + 2 wolf kills = 2town, 2wolves.

Wolves don't have 2 killing powers, only one. There's another phase at the very least.

[Hakulyte]

Re: jTWG LXXXI I Got Nothin' Game Thread

I will request the modkill so that we survive.

Huh, convince yourself really hard that this cannot be a strategy.

Modkills are not supposed to a voluntary gameplay element.

[Hakulyte]

Re: jTWG LXXXI I Got Nothin' Game Thread

be*

[Wayward Vagabond]

Re: jTWG LXXXI I Got Nothin' Game Thread

GUYS DONT LYNCH ME. if you do the game ends.

7 players left

1 mislynch + 2 wolf kills = 2town, 2wolves.

if you still want me out by 9AM Eastern Time, I will request the modkill so that we survive. that way, at least one wolf will be out.

I litterally left work to type this, so PLEASE WAIT!

Did you even bother reading the op or the rules or anything

[Hakulyte]

Re: jTWG LXXXI I Got Nothin' Game Thread

Did my first full reread of the thread.

Collected a bunch of quotes I considered interesting. Kind of changed my mind.

I'd like to, but I can't possibly disprove that. However Ill just say that my strategy doesnt involve me being power town

Like I said, no power town involved. Im not saying I am not a power town, just saying that it's irrelevant.

However for the sake of argument, -IF- I am a power town, lynch Rapta. I already have two votes and it'd be a waste if I died

If you're really the Town Tracker, that's setting up a lynch on Rapta for the next phase where you don't have proof which could lose the game for town if we decide to trust you after seeing your assumed flip.

I could also be bluff counterclaimed by a wolf and ruin my entire strategy, on top of being distrusted. Plus, it's illegal to post a screenshot, otherwise it'd make this much easier.

And as far as getting lynched... Like I said, I'll see further development first. My refusal isn't final. Latest I can post anyway is Monday morning, then I have to paint my appartment. That gives the rest of you half a day to decide afterwards.

That being said, if I claimed tracker or watcher, it'd be much easier for the wolves to get me without traces. And if I claimed regular town, they might not get me at all. I much prefer doubt for now.

Also combine what I said about wolves having it easy and you pressing me to reveal what I am... Man you're suddenly sounding suspicious too.

I'll be back in the morning for real now, Vita is out of batteries.

You know, the main thing that you got going for yourself is that you have a progression to identify you as the Tracker. You had "that plan" from the first phase with the Rapta vote that looks awkward etc.

Everything makes sense until we try to understand why you wanted Rapta lynched and you kind of provided information about that even if it's still pretty weird.

Andy kind of got here out of nowhere and his reads seems to align with mine for the game. That being said, when it comes to Andy's progression for solving the game/interactions, I'm kind of surprisingly also left in a situation where I don't have much information. This is happening because I posted too much and created a situation where we can just sheep my reads if it feels convenient.

I'm seriously questioning the soundness of mass claiming if nobody has any actual info. If both roles are revealed, tracker-immune wolf kills the watcher, or vice-versa, and no new info can be gained at all during that night. Is that really what you want, Haku?

Do you think it was a bad idea at this point in the game? I'm still liking the idea especially because it led to a counterclaim surprisingly and we're pretty much guarantee 1/2 wolf at this point.

If H&H claims Watcher with no counterclaim, Rapta is Tracker Immune Wolf.

Okay, this is where the game gets a little weird. Andy/xXOpKillerXx starts making sense for me here.

I really hope you aren't the tracker trying to lay low OP, because it's not working. If PR, claim now.

OP claimed VT. H&H is Tracker with a check on me. We're straight up into nonsense right now.

Since we agreed to hardclaim, I'm the tracker.

I tracked WaywardVagabond and I can confirm he visited Hakulyte. I figured if one of the first timers rolled PR, they'd probably target Hakulyte since he had the most presence in D0, so I'd target another player I knew was skilled.

Why WaywardVagabond out of everyone? That is by far the most surprising claim imo. It just feel incredibly convenient and I feel like we had plenty of other targets that made a lot more sense for a check/visit.

Haku, it doesn't matter what he claims, he should be lynched. Unless you find a flaw in my last post, all scenarios lead to lynching H&H for town win.

For logic purposes:

Say we lynch H&H:

He flips VT (wtf scenario but w/e): Unless he fcked up even worse and simply voted Rapta for no good reason, Haku/Sanz are the wolves. Solved.

Haku/Sanzath is in a lynch pool that only contain 1 wolf. That's not a thing.

He flips Tracker: Andy/Rapta are wolves. Solved.

That logic fell apart the moment H&H said he checked me.

He flips Watcher: Can't possibly happen. Solved.

-shrugs-

He flips Wolf: Either Sanz or Haku is wolf, but I believe PRs can solve that next night, right ? The combo Rapta/H&H as wolves is the last possibility however and I wouldn't know how to adress it.

Sanz/Haku doesn't make sense for same reason as above.

Rapta/H&H is actually an interesting one.

H&H voting Rapta could be distancing and if H&H flip wolf, that would make it appear so Rapta is in the other faction.

It's also making sense with the voting wagon on XelNya that ended very quickly.

Rapta agreed with you for the first vote and proceeded to change his mind about what is right at the end of the first phase.

Pairs like Rapta/xXOpKillerXx, Rapta/Hakulyte and Rapta/Sanzath doesn't make sense because we know that there's one wolf in the PRs.

Here's the only possible pairs at this point going purely by mechanics:

H&H/Sanzath
H&H/xXOpKillerXx
H&H/Rapta
H&H/Hakulyte
andy-o24/Sanzath
andy-o24/xXOpKillerXx
andy-o24/Rapta
andy-o24/Hakulyte

At this point, it's all about simplifying and interactions.

H&H/Andy will get solved which should cut in half this list.

You can normally solve me by volume tell in games which means I'm usually town where I have a ton of posts, but this game doesn't really have heavy posters so, I guess I can't really rely on that for self-clearing myself.

I'll just say that my game has been pretty clear in terms of what I've been trying to do.

I also kind of expected wolves to eventually nightkill me because I'm annoying with strategies etc. but if they do that, they're going to be stuck with 1-2 confirmed PRs.

Confirmed players are impossible to argue against to get them mislynched because town players will never agree to lynch a confirmed town. (well, logically speaking)

he soft claimed visiting me in the night, so obviously you guys would lynch me if he is actually a pr

That's a weird posts all things considered because being visited =/= you will die. If you're really vanilla town, nothing will happen. Well, I know the situation changed, but just keep in mind that it leaves a strange impression.

Sanzath - Town
He's genuinely interested in learning what other players are using to base their opinions. His massive statistics post and understanding of how the wolves could manipulate knowledge of PRs shows investment in solving the game that town players need to win but also initial concern with the mass claim strategy.

Hateandhatred - Wolf
He has been soft claiming a power role since the start of D1 and playing an anti-town game overall. He slammed happily an instalynch on XelNya using personal bias to justify it. You should never instalynch that early unless you have a confirmed wolf.
Now to his strategy, which I'm still not sure I fully understand. He is trying to soft claim PR and convince the non-Quebecs that he won't use his role on them, but he's using that to try and condition the wolves to target Quebecs when he will in fact use his power on Quebecs? It is seriously convoluted.
Top it off with his counterclaim to my hard claim of Tracker because he wasn't around to fake claim with the rest of the townsfolk. It all reads very scummy to me and I want to see him lynched.

xXOpKillerXx - Null trending wolf
I'm having a hard time convincing myself he's fully wolf, but it's things like this that make me think he is a wolf. He's trying really hard to compute the situations to make it seem like he's town trying to solve, but of course as a wolf you wouldn't include yourself as anything but VT. He's been pushing for a lynch on Rapta which I don't think is good right now, but also bussing H&H if they're partners. Seems risky for a first timer and with a game this small.

Rapta - Town
It's posts like these:
158
162
257
that I think look really good for Rapta being town. Genuinely interested in solving the game and not making the same mistakes we made D0. His iso looks pretty clean other than being on the XelNya...wagon I guess you could call it...D0.

Wayward Vagabond - Town
He hard claimed Watcher and no one countered, so I'm inclined to believe he's town. He does not get lynched.

Hakulyte - Town
I wasn't so sure about Haku at the start, but I think he's taking charge appropriately to help solve this game with us. Lots of questions to uncover reasoning and interacting with everyone. The only blemish is I think his wolf meta is effort posting to seem town, but I'd like to continue having a strong town lead to help us figure this game out. He's only a consideration tomorrow.

Not gonna lie, this is a really good post that covers everything I "wanted to see", but in terms of having an unique approach to the game, I feel like I'm not really seeing anything new.

These town placements hint that xXOpKillerXx being wolf mechanically and H&H being wolf.

This feels agenda-ish because it fits perfectly with what I've been trying to do.

You might be thinking; "but Haku, if someone agrees with you and you're town, this is good right?"

The answer is "not really". If I'm wrong and I'm targeting a town, it only makes sense that wolves will want to be my friends and tell me that I'm right.

I feel like Andy is trying to make me lynch H&H who is indeed acting weird, but at same it is H&H.

You already claimed to have tracked him and confirmed his Watcher status though...

That subtle post by Sanzath also made me reconsider that I could be wrong.

Andy's claim looks like a copy/pasta of things said in the game.

H&H's claim looks unique/weird, but it also contains a progression with the first phase of the game and this is important because it means it wasn't invented on the spot.

This is harder to feign.

That means I'm inclined to reconsider and vote andy-o24 surprisingly.

----

Going to sleep.

[Hateandhatred]

Re: jTWG LXXXI I Got Nothin' Game Thread

Wolves don't have 2 killing powers, only one. There's another phase at the very least.

Wait, so when sanzath said both wolves could be nightkilling both PRs, that couldnt have happened?

[Hateandhatred]

Re: jTWG LXXXI I Got Nothin' Game Thread

As for voting Rapta so early, I was truly hoping to get immunity from Quebec and get either one more turn as Tracker or be an obvious pick for the watcher (which was my main strategy, but it would have failed hard since WV thought I was a Wolf) for when I get killed, really it's no more complicated. We did wagon on middie, if no more interactions led to anything, that wouldn't have been worse than any other blind vote. But things changed and I got a chance to counterclaim, which is far more valuable than anything I had going on.

Also, of course I'm playing "weird". You guys know me too well, and I'd get suspicion from op, haku and sanz immediately lol, and you know it's true.

[Hateandhatred]

Re: jTWG LXXXI I Got Nothin' Game Thread

Ok guys, I'm pretty sure he meant "let's vote on who I'm tracking tonight", not "let's vote on who to lynch".

I'm confirming that this is what I meant.