jTWG LXXXI I Got Nothin' Game Thread

[Wayward Vagabond]

Re: jTWG LXXXI I Got Nothin' Game Thread

Alright why do you think hnh is town

[xXOpkillerXx]

Re: jTWG LXXXI I Got Nothin' Game Thread

Alright why do you think hnh is town

Was gonna post some more thoughts but that will have to wait until I have a reply from everybody on my previous big post. Will not be answering questions until then.

[andy-o24]

Re: jTWG LXXXI I Got Nothin' Game Thread

Just caught up. Gonna charge my phone and do some stuff with the family before giving a good reply.

H&H seems like he's trying to claim PR, but doesn't really know how. Overall his play feels kinda wishy-washy and I'd be fine lynching him as of right now.

I think the massclaim is probably not the best idea for town, because it gives the wolves the targets they want to find. It's usually best to make them work for those kills I would think.

Haku is trending more town than before, but I wouldn't put deep wolfing past him. More stuff later.

[sanzath]

Re: jTWG LXXXI I Got Nothin' Game Thread

I did some maths. Assuming a few things (lynching at random, town PRs targeting at random and wolves night killing at random), if we don't mass claim today, we only come out to about 11% chance of a PR getting conclusive info on a wolf tonight.

I'll side with Haku on this one, I think it's much more valuable to remove 2 towns from our lynch pool today.

[xXOpkillerXx]

Re: jTWG LXXXI I Got Nothin' Game Thread

I did some maths. Assuming a few things (lynching at random, town PRs targeting at random and wolves night killing at random), if we don't mass claim today, we only come out to about 11% chance of a PR getting conclusive info on a wolf tonight.

I'll side with Haku on this one, I think it's much more valuable to remove 2 towns from our lynch pool today.

You should post your maths, not only the results.

[sanzath]

Re: jTWG LXXXI I Got Nothin' Game Thread

You should post your maths, not only the results.

formatting, gimme a few minutes

[sanzath]

Re: jTWG LXXXI I Got Nothin' Game Thread

Day 1
5 towns (2 of which are PR) vs 2 wolves = 5(2PR):2
lynching at random gives a 2/7 chance to lynch a wolf, 3/7 to lynch a VT and 2/7 to lynch a PR
    
    -Lynch Wolf: (2/7)
    Night 1
    5(2PR):1
    Wolf has a 2/5 chance to kill a PR, 3/5 chance to kill a VT
    
        -Nightkill VT: (3/5)
        4(2PR):1
        The PR who isn't blocked has a 1/5 chance to have targeted the right person
        
        -Nightkill PR: (2/5)
        4(1PR):1
        There's a 1/2 chance that the blocked PR was killed, and a 1/5 chance from there that the unblocked PR targeted the right person
        
    --> [3/5 * 1/5] + [2/5 * 1/2 * 1/5] =  3/25 + 1/25 = 4/25 (16%) to get conclusive info in this scenario

    -Lynch VT: (3/7)
    Night 1
    4(2PR):2
    Wolves have a 1/2 chance to kill a PR, 1/2 chance to kill VT
    
        -Nightkill VT: (1/2)
        3(2PR):2
        The PR who isn't blocked has a 1/5 chance to have targeted at the right person
        
        -Nightkill PR: (1/2)
        3(1PR):2
        There's a 1/2 chance that the blocked PR was killed, and a 1/5 chance from there that the unblocked PR targeted the right person
        
    --> [1/2 * 1/5] + [1/2 * 1/2 * 1/5] = 1/10 + 1/20 = 3/20 (15%) to get conclusive info in this scenario
        
    -Lynch PR: (2/7)
    Night 1
    4(1PR):2
    Wolves will 100% kill using their immune wolf, no conclusive info in this scenario
    
--> [2/7 * 16%] + [3/7 * 16%] + [2/7 * 0%] = 11% chance to get conclusive info

[sanzath]

Re: jTWG LXXXI I Got Nothin' Game Thread

I'm also not accounting for situations like the Watcher watching the victim, the Tracker targeting the victim and the Watcher-immune wolf being used for the kill.

[Hakulyte]

Re: jTWG LXXXI I Got Nothin' Game Thread

Note that mass claim also solve conflicts between players because it's forcing certain players to be 100% town and we can assume many things from that conclusion.

It's also clearing any situation where the wolf team claim themselves to be the Tracker/Watcher (this scenario could happen tomorrow if we mislynch because another mislynch will end the game).

The advantage heavily outweight the 1/5 chance to target the right wolf who is doing the kill on a town player.

The information of the visit can also soft clear players if nothing happened. (it's still risky if you somehow visited the immune wolf vs your PR role)

[Hakulyte]

Re: jTWG LXXXI I Got Nothin' Game Thread

I think the massclaim is probably not the best idea for town, because it gives the wolves the targets they want to find. It's usually best to make them work for those kills I would think.

I want you to realize that if we mislynch this phase, it's already mylo and the game is in danger of ending already.

We're not in a big game right now. Since the first phase ended way too early, I don't see how else you will magically find your 2 wolves without some sort of insurance.

Note that both PRs claiming will also leave 1 PR alive tomorrow and the entire game will be centered around the other players who are not in that pool.

[Hakulyte]

Re: jTWG LXXXI I Got Nothin' Game Thread

Another note; We still get 1 PR who will do a check knowing who the other PR is so that will also boost his own chance to actually target the right player.

[sanzath]

Re: jTWG LXXXI I Got Nothin' Game Thread

Another note; We still get 1 PR who will do a check knowing who the other PR is so that will also boost his own chance to actually target the right player.

As I said before, if both PRs are known, the Watcher-immune wolf can safely kill the Tracker, or the Tracker-immune wolf can safely kill the Watcher. Unless the wolves do something else, the surviving PR won't get anything.

[Wayward Vagabond]

Re: jTWG LXXXI I Got Nothin' Game Thread

As I said before, if both PRs are known, the Watcher-immune wolf can safely kill the Tracker, or the Tracker-immune wolf can safely kill the Watcher. Unless the wolves do something else, the surviving PR won't get anything.

Mass claiming helps solve town not wolves. But solving town we can know who the wolves are

[xXOpkillerXx]

Re: jTWG LXXXI I Got Nothin' Game Thread

Mass claiming helps solve town not wolves. But solving town we can know who the wolves are

What do you do in a counterclaim scenario ?

[Hakulyte]

Re: jTWG LXXXI I Got Nothin' Game Thread

As I said before, if both PRs are known, the Watcher-immune wolf can safely kill the Tracker, or the Tracker-immune wolf can safely kill the Watcher. Unless the wolves do something else, the surviving PR won't get anything.

Oh, good point.

I guess they can kill one and assign the kill to the other role making both PRs useless.

I still think they should claim so we never lynch them by mistake and for solving conflicts because we're just blindly targeting players at this point.