TWG CLXIII: Allies and Adversaries 2 - GAME THREAD

[ShadoWolfe]

Re: TWG CLXIII: Allies and Adversaries 2 - GAME THREAD

I concede that I didn't take Chaos Wolf into account, but you realize that if there's no Chaos Wolf in this game, my world is suddenly fairly likely?

tl:dr; I think the game is already auto between Shado and meno.

sigh no, it's not fairly likely.
Look, in almost every world I've considered, there is a chaos wolf in this game. In almost every world where j-rodd is wolf, he was the chaos wolf, and in every world (except one) where he is town, he was chaos-wolfed to turning gray.

What I'm trying to figure out is which of those j-rodds is more likely. And, if j-rodd was town, then that paints a pretty big question mark over you. It also doesn't help that you've been ignoring my posts.
Read and respond to #1850 and #1865, please.

K I'm testing the limits here by not focusing on hw, so I'll be gone til midnight for sure.

[Hakulyte]

Re: TWG CLXIII: Allies and Adversaries 2 - GAME THREAD

Going to sleep and wait for V to come back for this one.

I just feel like the large pool of Chaos Wolf worlds doesn't lead to anything outside of stagnating the game.

Of course, you all 3 like to talk about it so, enjoy yourself.

meno, please unvote for now because insta at 3 is very dumb especially if you forget you had a vote and something happens.

[meno_rocks123]

Re: TWG CLXIII: Allies and Adversaries 2 - GAME THREAD

I'll unvote at your request, but rest assured I'll just put it back on shado when the time comes unless something BIG comes up.

[Hakulyte]

Re: TWG CLXIII: Allies and Adversaries 2 - GAME THREAD

sigh no, it's not fairly likely.
Look, in almost every world I've considered, there is a chaos wolf in this game.

Haku:
"This forest has a lot of bananas."
"Do you think this forest is more likely to have bananas as the highest concentration of fruits?"

Shado:
"Look, in every forests I've considered, there is always oranges in this game."

smh

[ShadoWolfe]

Re: TWG CLXIII: Allies and Adversaries 2 - GAME THREAD

Going to sleep and wait for V to come back for this one.

I just feel like the large pool of Chaos Wolf worlds doesn't lead to anything outside of stagnating the game.

It's only stagnating the game if you refuse to consider it. It's weird that you refuse to consider it after seemingly wanting to talk about everything else, including crazy worlds the definition of magenta, and forests full of bananas.

I'm not going to let this go, so don't think ignoring me will keep attention focused where you want it. Please read and respond to #1850, and the top of #1865! They're directly addressing you, and been ignored since 6 hrs ago despite my prompting you to them.

[Hakulyte]

Re: TWG CLXIII: Allies and Adversaries 2 - GAME THREAD

Refer to #1878 "#4" for questions as to why I priorize you over the others for your #1865.

This is #1850

I really doubt any world where chaos wolf died with Xiz, and I doubt Aryxi would know to turn himself pink (he died thinking Xiz claimed green)

What does that changes?

Uhm.. Why? If who were both wolves? Even by your own reasoning, wouldn't have killing V been impossible before his final shot?

I said it was wrong in another post like 2-3 posts right after it.


^seriously impossible

N0.

From your perspective (assuming you're not lying about AA), the Chaos Wolf has to be exactly jrodd, or jrodd is town.
If chaos wolf was alive, they would have flipped jrodd green (if he's a wolf), or gray (if he was town).
See where I'm coming from?

he could have flipped grey or grey as well, but it would make more sense to swap him to green. (assuming the chaos wolf even knew he could flip someone else green)

Both are possible, but mathematically speaking, I don't see how you would deal with priorizing a lynch order based on this because of the possibility of simply having any other role than Chaos Wolf as the last wolf.

[Hakulyte]

Re: TWG CLXIII: Allies and Adversaries 2 - GAME THREAD

mfw you're all online at 3:30 am.

[meno_rocks123]

Re: TWG CLXIII: Allies and Adversaries 2 - GAME THREAD

You're not alone. His rebuttals are coming from inside the house.

[ShadoWolfe]

Re: TWG CLXIII: Allies and Adversaries 2 - GAME THREAD

Refer to #1878 "#4" for questions as to why I priorize you over the others for your #1865.

...are you even playing anymore?
I've seen you crumble like this before. You a wolf, Haku?

You're ignoring my questions until forced to respond, and when you do, you're referring me back to #1795 (#1878 is just a quote of #1795), telling me to refer to it for questions as to why you prioritize me as wolf, even though I've already answered all those "questions" and was responding to you saying "I just cannot remove tunnel vision from Shado this phase because in every scenarios where he's right, he's still the most interesting vote for me."

Here, I'll do numbers so you don't have a choice but to respond:

1. I addressed your "questions" form #1795 in #1809

2. Your entire basis for deducing me as wolf relied on the absolute non-existence of a Chaos Wolf. You said it was impossible for there to be a Chaos Wolf, and that j-rodd is never CW or VT because his flip is gray, and called it a slip that I thought there could be one in 1813.
When I was proven right here, and in every other factual point we've discussed since (see 1827, 1840, and read my posts addressing you, please), you said you were going afk because you were tired of being potentially wrong about everything.
When you came back, you said "Even with a Chaos Wolf in this game;
1.) He's already dead.
2.) I'm still voting Shado here because of how interactions/actions went overall."
and went right back to the same tinfoil you've had from the beginning, except now with your entire basis for thinking it was me (no CW), refuted.

3. Now that I think about it, it's really shady how you said "he's already dead" about Chaos Wolf, as a statement of fact, before moving onto voting me. It's like you don't care whether your logic is sound or not, you just want me dead.

4. The more I read this, "Hakulyte (yes, we're talking about me here) is the reason why AragakiAyase got killed.

- My Day 3 Adversary happened to be AragakiAyase. It was a terrible choice, but it happened.
- A wolf must have targeted me because they still had 2 wolves alive.
- I thought 2 wolves were dead and I was wrong.
- I believe I got targeted by a wolf. Wolves cannot target other wolves. This should clear me again."
The less I believe it. Aren't you the one who said to never pick AA/Vendetta as our allegiances at EoD? Aren't you the one who used that to confirm that there was only one wolf yesterday? Why did you choose him? I'm not gonna be satisfied with, "it was a terrible choice, but it happened"
Why did you keep silent about it all through last phase, and use it to confirm that there was only one wolf?

5. You "responded" to 1850:

I really doubt any world where chaos wolf died with Xiz, and I doubt Aryxi would know to turn himself pink (he died thinking Xiz claimed green)

What does that changes?

What does Aryxi dying while thinking he's pink change? If he were Chaos Wolf, he'd have to choose his color after dying, and Aryxi COULD NOT HAVE CHOSEN PINK.

From your perspective (assuming you're not lying about AA), the Chaos Wolf has to be exactly jrodd, or jrodd is town.
If chaos wolf was alive, they would have flipped jrodd green (if he's a wolf), or gray (if he was town).
See where I'm coming from?

he could have flipped grey or grey as well, but it would make more sense to swap him to green. (assuming the chaos wolf even knew he could flip someone else green)

Both are possible, but mathematically speaking, I don't see how you would deal with priorizing a lynch order based on this because of the possibility of simply having any other role than Chaos Wolf as the last wolf.

What are you even saying here? I said, "From your perspective (assuming you're not lying about AA), the Chaos Wolf has to be exactly jrodd, or jrodd is town.
If chaos wolf was alive, they would have flipped jrodd green (if he's a wolf), or gray (if he was town).", how does your response change that?

Also, what mathematics are you speaking about, because it sure doesn't look like you're using any. It seriously feels like you're just throwing shit at me just to throw shit at me, and that doesn't look very good for you tbh.

[ShadoWolfe]

Re: TWG CLXIII: Allies and Adversaries 2 - GAME THREAD

After re-reading this phase to bring up why I've been frustrated with Haku, I've come to the conclusion that
a) if j-rodd is town, Haku is almost certainly the wolf. The only reason I add "almost" is because he legitimately seemed to not know the role.
b) the above point is likelier than I initially gave it credit for because of how dubious Haku's allegiance claim is, and how he's spent the entirety of this phase stuck on one point, even contradicting himself along the way just to remain fixated on it.
c) Haku's response to j-rodds flip was an immediate attempt to clear himself, which, in retrospect, is not nearly as good of a look as I thought it was.
d) j-rodd is probably town, because Xiz/j-rodd/? does not make nearly as much as much sense Xel/j-rodd/?, considering Xel's red flip and the unlikelyness of a vigi in the lack of a N0 nightkill

d) If j-rodd is wolf, he was almost certainly the Chaos Wolf.
e) the reasoning for the above lies in Xel's flip. If Xel was vigi, then the chances of no N0 nightkill are incredibly low. Therefore, he must either have chaos wolfed (unlikely considering he was lynched), or a wolf himself.


I'm now nearly 100% that the last wolf is in Haku/meno.
I would still like to see more from Raeko (her brief return earlier did little to assuage my concern of her being UTR), but I'm pretty confident it isn't her.

[meno_rocks123]

Re: TWG CLXIII: Allies and Adversaries 2 - GAME THREAD

Playing rocket league, will refute soontm.

[meno_rocks123]

Re: TWG CLXIII: Allies and Adversaries 2 - GAME THREAD

I made a bunch of tuna pinwheels and I ate them all and I feel like puking right now so I'm going to quickly cherry pick on you. Rest assured that you haven't convinced me.

What does Aryxi dying while thinking he's pink change? If he were Chaos Wolf, he'd have to choose his color after dying, and Aryxi COULD NOT HAVE CHOSEN PINK.

Chaos wolf doesn't choose death colour at death time. It's chosen earlier. That would be such a sequence break, waiting for the chaos wolf to choose their flip colour at eod/eon.

e) the reasoning for the above lies in Xel's flip. If Xel was vigi, then the chances of no N0 nightkill are incredibly low. Therefore, he must either have chaos wolfed (unlikely considering he was lynched), or a wolf himself.

A N1 vigi would be a stupid move. You have triple the odds of nailing a human over a wolf. Better to wait at least until N2 and then take N3 off to recharge.

[mellonxcollie]

Re: TWG CLXIII: Allies and Adversaries 2 - GAME THREAD

I'm now nearly 100% that the last wolf is in Haku/meno.
I would still like to see more from Raeko (her brief return earlier did little to assuage my concern of her being UTR), but I'm pretty confident it isn't her.

What do you want from me dude? People need to stop being scared of me being "UTR" and need to focus on what has actually been posted. I'm not the most active poster in the thread and that is never going to be me, ever, but it doesn't automatically mean I have been UTR.

I know it's impossible for me to prove to you but I do think it's important that you focus your attention elsewhere. Despite the other player's eagerness to just lynch two people and be done I'd still rather avoid a mislynch so the wolf has less control over the next phase if the game does continue

Anyways I've been waiting to reread this phase in a quiet and undistracted environment so I'll be doing that this afternoon and I'll share any thoughts I have.

I wish V would show up more. He's our confirmed human and his input would be really valuable. I really liked a few of the points he made about Jrodd. V come on don't let us down now in the home stretch ;_;

[Vendetta21]

Re: TWG CLXIII: Allies and Adversaries 2 - GAME THREAD

it's between hakulyte and shado imo that's what i think

[Vendetta21]

Re: TWG CLXIII: Allies and Adversaries 2 - GAME THREAD

i'd kill hakulyte here