TWG CLIX: Form your special exclusive groups now! - Game Thread

[ShadoWolfe]

Re: TWG CLIX: Form your special exclusive groups now! - Game Thread

May I add something else too, Shadow?

You baka, claiming first thing is stupid too. If you were smart, and I do take you as the above average player here, you would've saw the potential to see who would read you wolf without claiming for the first... say... 30+ hours.

You ruined that little edge too.

I thought about that. After Gradi's flip, though, I realized it might just be better to out early and let the chips fall where they may. I wanted as much effort this phase put into digging into the right people, and I felt there would've been a lot of wasted effort digging into me. Plus, people reading me wolfish wouldn't necessarily be alignment-indicative, right? I mean, your own read of me kinda proves that.

Or it should prove it to you, at least...?

[Charu]

Re: TWG CLIX: Form your special exclusive groups now! - Game Thread

No... nonono...

Your sudden jumps in logic. Your sudden change in reads. Your sudden posts to inDheart that he's scum when the reasonings were subpar.

Uuuuugh

[Charu]

Re: TWG CLIX: Form your special exclusive groups now! - Game Thread

Don't you dare play the "dumb tell" card on me, you poopy-cooky

[Charu]

Re: TWG CLIX: Form your special exclusive groups now! - Game Thread

Trying to influence me with your "is this a good strat"? crud

[ShadoWolfe]

Re: TWG CLIX: Form your special exclusive groups now! - Game Thread

Very bad imo. Lawyer/Framer exists bro, do you ev-...

...

. . .

You're actually not a wolf, are you...?

The lawyer/framer is a big drawback to that strat, to be sure, but I liked the odds of things working favorably. This is a large game, so as long as people kept their reports generally varied (except for intentional town doublestacks to draw heat for cop), and generally innocent, then there's enough of us to not reveal too much info to the wolves. Problems I saw were lawyer/framer, and 2NKs per night, +1. Looked good overall though. I'm just curious now to confirm whether my assessment of it was accurate, or absolute shit.

[danceflashrevo]

Re: TWG CLIX: Form your special exclusive groups now! - Game Thread

I wanted to avoid claiming D0 if I could, to narrow down my shot options. I was actually grateful for immense suspicion, because wolves don't generally NK scum-read townies, instead preferring to try to get them mislynched. Claiming for self-preservation would've been counterproductive there was 30 seconds left in the phase (so it wouldn't change votes much), and would've forced me to shoot last night, with a wider pool and worse reads.

Ah, fair enough. I just have a different theory on how that situation should be played out. I like yours better heh.

@charu I townread inD for the record

[Charu]

Re: TWG CLIX: Form your special exclusive groups now! - Game Thread

And even if you the cop didn't die, it would be bad too!

Wolves would probably know right away who the real cop is because of the framer/lawyer role.

[Charu]

Re: TWG CLIX: Form your special exclusive groups now! - Game Thread

Arrgghhhh... shadowOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOLFE

[ShadoWolfe]

Re: TWG CLIX: Form your special exclusive groups now! - Game Thread

And even if you the cop didn't die, it would be bad too!

Wolves would probably know right away who the real cop is because of the framer/lawyer role.

Not really. Optimally, there would be 12 reports. Three would be instantly invalidated to the wolves because they're the ones who made them. The only way any other report would give them any information is if Town/SK gave an innocent read on a wolf (25% chance in this game), or inno on framed (8.3%), or a guilty read on an innocent (75%, which is why we'd need mostly inno reports), or guilty on lawyered (8.3%)

For the most part, town reports would be inno on inno, so it wouldn't narrow the game down tooo much for wolves, and would've allowed cop to out his reports. Problem is, there's 2 NKs per night so cop would likely die N4, but there would only be 5 players alive at D4, and only three without cop at D5, and his reads would be mostly confirmed, except for the tiny chance he hit lawyer/framer target.

Lawyer/framer is certainly annoying here, which is why I'm asking if it would've been good. I had spent a good amount of time thinking about those numbers, so I feel like I should at least ask whether they would've been worth anything.

[ShadoWolfe]

Re: TWG CLIX: Form your special exclusive groups now! - Game Thread

For the most part, town reports would be inno on inno, so it wouldn't narrow the game down tooo much for wolves, and would've allowed cop to out his reports. Problem is, there's 2 NKs per night so cop would likely die N4, but there would only be 5 players alive at D4, and only three without cop at D5, and his reads would be mostly confirmed, except for the tiny chance he hit lawyer/framer target..

Well, four alive at D5 because if the game drags out that long with a wolf and SK still alive, then we'd lose. I'll say 4 assuming that there would only be 1 KP by N4.

[ShadoWolfe]

Re: TWG CLIX: Form your special exclusive groups now! - Game Thread

But, anyways, that's all irrelevant now. Please give feedback, but I'mma switch my focus on articulating what bothered me most about Botchi, DBP, Juckter, and Roundbox, because there's a reason I said there's probably multiple wolves in there. This articulation won't occur for awhile, though, because I need to hit up PG&E and City Hall first to pay some bills and run some errands, but I'll be back in a couple hours.

[Hakulyte]

Re: TWG CLIX: Form your special exclusive groups now! - Game Thread

hi Shadow.

I'm actually happy I didn't move my vote on you yesterday and made a kitb. (I didn't want to vote FreezinIce)

If I didn't mislynch you the last 2 games and knew you better than that, I may have gone for it again.

I would like to quote this post of yours because I think it's a critical one:

I'll likely be around until about 4pm server time tomorrow, and I'll do my best to check my phone if the patrons of my fine establishment give me enough of a pause to do so. If anyone's got any issues with me they'd like to bring up, kindly do so before then to allow me to respond and address your concerns.
Alright, let's gooo! Reads, everyone.

To start, I'd say the list I shared earlier is still fairly up to date, and you can find it here: http://www.flashflashrevolution.com/...&postcount=440

What's changed is that I'm liking DaBackpack a lot less now. Ironically, the cause of the shift in my read of him was inDheart calling me out on basing a read on nothing but a mindmeld. I re-read his posts, and while I still agree with the majority of judgments he shared (freez, Gradi, precarious at the time), I realized he hasn't actually done, either, other than make those judgments and push semi-lazily on Precarious. He also said he wasn't putting effort in, but that he'd provide a reads list in his next post, then proceeded to post about other stuff until now. Even now, he came into thread tonight to remind us that he's got some "hot fresh reads" for us in the morning. I don't like this, and it seems as though the laziness in his posts may be attributed to a wolf DBP posting a bit and half-heartedly a player, in an attempt to differ from his wolf-meta. This is WIFOM, though, so I'm wary of placing too much faith in it. Still, he's on the table for me until those reads are up like he promised.
I'm liking botchi more after coming in and posting, but that's just off memory right now because nothing seemed suspicious to me there. Not much actual contribution still, but he's trolling in a genuine manner, and that seems like normal botchi to me.
Roundbox I'm liking less, because he's had plenty of opportunity to come in and post, and he's posted at various times that showed he was at least semi-up-to-date, but he still hasn't bothered to do any hunting at all. That's either extremely lazy, or.. well, probably just lazy, but I like him less for it. The couple of contributions that stuck out were randomly declaring people town, and then at some point reminding us that the SK is out there. I refuse to read into his SK-reference, because it's just so much WIFOM, but yes he needs to get off his ass because he's on the table for sheer willful inactivity at this point.
I'm liking Freezin even less now that some time has passed and he's posted some more. I can't help but see a dissonance in his posts with stated intentions, tone, and actions throughout this entire phase.
mellon and precarious are both still undecided, but their exchange was so mindnumbingly repetitive that I couldn't help but think them both town for it, because I think wolves would start reaching for dirt to sling after the third post of the same argument.
I also can't wait for Zenith to get in here and start posting, because that slot needs to start generating some content.

If EoD were in 30 minutes, the players on the table for me would be inDheart, Freezin, DBP, and roundbox, but not necessarily in that order. Botchi and XelNya should both be on there in terms of actual contribution alone, but I'm hesitant to lynch either of them D0 just for trolling, because that's consistent with their respective personas.

Have your reads changed overall since that point or it's about the same?

[ShadoWolfe]

Re: TWG CLIX: Form your special exclusive groups now! - Game Thread

hi Shadow.

I'm actually happy I didn't move my vote on you yesterday and made a kitb. (I didn't want to vote FreezinIce)

If I didn't mislynch you the last 2 games and knew you better than that, I may have gone for it again.

I would like to quote this post of yours because I think it's a critical one:



Have your reads changed overall since that point or it's about the same?

Boy am I also happy you didn't KitB me. With my luck, the RNG gods would've pimpslapped me and you guys would be all "wtf he was vigi, fucking idiot, playing suspiciously and shit, he deserved what he got!" and FreezinIce would giggle to himself quietly and say, "Bullies always get what they deserve!" etc etc etc.

Well, I don't have time to give you full reads, but there's a slight update in my claimpost:

"Right now, though, I'm thinking there's multiple wolves in Botchi, DBP, Juckter, and roundbox. Roundbox is likelier to be SK, imo, but we'll see. XelNya is also a definite possiblity here, as even calling his contributions thus far "lackluster" would be giving them too much credit. Charu is also a possibility (albeit a small one because of the inherent risks of shooting a bulletproof claim), considering that he could very easily be a wolf who thought it a fair trade to get rid of bulletproof bodyguard/asceticizer if they had CCed. Mellon also needs to post more asap, or I'll shoot her without hesitance or remorse for whatever her flip might be."

That I think still holds true. Roundbox is definitely trending upwards, but SK possibility is distinct. My reasoning for Botchi, DBP, and Juckter will follow after I get home in a couple hours. That answer your question, Haku?

[ShadoWolfe]

Re: TWG CLIX: Form your special exclusive groups now! - Game Thread

Oh, I might just shoot Zenith to shoot Zenith, so will the real Zenith please speak up?

[ShadoWolfe]

Re: TWG CLIX: Form your special exclusive groups now! - Game Thread

Oh, I might just shoot Zenith to shoot Zenith, so will the real Zenith please speak up?

Just realized you've been invisible to me, hence the callout. I saw some posts earlier, will have to re-read them when I get back.

Alright, that's all for now, folks!