TWG CXLIV - The Freeze Wars (Sex Live)

[Vendetta21]

Re: TWG CXLIV - The Freeze Wars (Sex Live)

At this point, yeah. There are two effects which corroborate this, one is my confidence on xiz (I wouldn't be pushing to kill one of the three claims without a lot of confidence) and knowing that in order for xiz to claim he had to be prepared to stay outside the AC Room last night, which means DBP being seered in the Dino room clears him.

I doubt tokzic would use the first seering if he were a wolf to give another wolf cover, as in this position if he were a wolf he needs to garner favor from additional humans, so if tokzic is a wolf i still think DBP is human because if tokzic is a wolf he needs support and seering a human and clearing them gives that support at this phase. So in multiple contingencies I see the seering as clearing DBP.

The only one where it doesn't is if botchi is a wolf. But still I feel extremely confident that xiz is a wolf.

read the second two paragraphs

[Vendetta21]

Re: TWG CXLIV - The Freeze Wars (Sex Live)

Also DBP seems to be frustrated off the cuff at xiz and focusing on it a lot, which corroborates the fact that he feels a humanness towards tokzic from being seered and cleared and explains his motivations to push xiz hard. Too many things casually lining up to spell out a fabrication, wolves never do anything this sophisticated as its too risky.

this one is important too

[dLGN]

Re: TWG CXLIV - The Freeze Wars (Sex Live)

it clears DBP in the situation where xiz is a wolf, yes
but if toxzic is a wolf then it says nothing about dbp

yes so this is why I've taken some time to speak with him and you know, actually get a read, rather than relying on mechanics (as when I suggested a play to maximize information gain that way nobody took too kindly to it)

that read is town.

[Vendetta21]

Re: TWG CXLIV - The Freeze Wars (Sex Live)

its the next post i made 2 posts later

[AragakiAyase]

Re: TWG CXLIV - The Freeze Wars (Sex Live)

I doubt tokzic would use the first seering if he were a wolf to give another wolf cover, as in this position if he were a wolf he needs to garner favor from additional humans, so if tokzic is a wolf i still think DBP is human because if tokzic is a wolf he needs support and seering a human and clearing them gives that support at this phase. So in multiple contingencies I see the seering as clearing DBP.

this is a valid point, but if dbp and toxzic are scum then "clearing a human" isn't actually clearing a human and we have no way to verify this. All we have is dbp's word confirming toxzic's hypothetical seering with no way of knowing if one or the other is withholding information

[Vendetta21]

Re: TWG CXLIV - The Freeze Wars (Sex Live)

please don't question and quote my logic for clearing DBP out-of-context without fully understanding it

[Vendetta21]

Re: TWG CXLIV - The Freeze Wars (Sex Live)

fucking feels like you didn't even care to read the goddamn post when you ignore the first fucking sentence

[Vendetta21]

Re: TWG CXLIV - The Freeze Wars (Sex Live)

yeah we aren't talking about my DBP logic anymore we are talking about how it appears you're pushing an agenda

[AragakiAyase]

Re: TWG CXLIV - The Freeze Wars (Sex Live)

Also DBP seems to be frustrated off the cuff at xiz and focusing on it a lot, which corroborates the fact that he feels a humanness towards tokzic from being seered and cleared and explains his motivations to push xiz hard. Too many things casually lining up to spell out a fabrication, wolves never do anything this sophisticated as its too risky.

why is it too risky? If a player has the capability to perform analysis like this they could plausibly engineer this. If they screw something up it looks very forced and is a red flag but completely ruling it out idk. I didn't look at dbp as closely as you seem to have though

[Vendetta21]

Re: TWG CXLIV - The Freeze Wars (Sex Live)

roundbox wants to lynch tokzic and said so yesterday i would really like roundbox to come in and explain himself there

[AragakiAyase]

Re: TWG CXLIV - The Freeze Wars (Sex Live)

fucking feels like you didn't even care to read the goddamn post when you ignore the first fucking sentence

yeah we aren't talking about my DBP logic anymore we are talking about how it appears you're pushing an agenda

I skimmed over the first part of your post too fast because I was remembering the middle part sticking out to me. I'm not pushing an agenda, I'm exploring all possibilities and I'll bring this up again if it is still relevant after the necessary flips

[roundbox]

Re: TWG CXLIV - The Freeze Wars (Sex Live)

roundbox wants to lynch tokzic and said so yesterday i would really like roundbox to come in and explain himself there

when did I say this

[Vendetta21]

Re: TWG CXLIV - The Freeze Wars (Sex Live)

why is it too risky? If a player has the capability to perform analysis like this they could plausibly engineer this. If they screw something up it looks very forced and is a red flag but completely ruling it out idk. I didn't look at dbp as closely as you seem to have though

it's too risky to try to think that many contingencies ahead during the night phase because when you start thinking that many steps ahead you have these problems
1.) youve expended a bunch of effort thinking up something people wont notice
2.) wolves are never quite as coordinated as people expect and so you come up with a plan and your wolf partners just fail to follow it because wolves are somewhat lazy in TWG because wolfing is uncomfortable

it is such a bar-none safer option to seer a human (if tokzic is a wolf) because you will tell that human their location last night and thus gain support from them for your cause (lynching xiz) and not put yourself into a dangerous position of giving too much up about your team by associating with them.

and then how dbp reacts to that situation seems pretty geniune, and not acted. last game as SK DBP wasn't able to act human very well, a couple people spotted it in day 1. the narrative supports dbp as human either with xiz or tokzic as a wolf.

[AragakiAyase]

Re: TWG CXLIV - The Freeze Wars (Sex Live)

At this point, yeah. There are two effects which corroborate this, one is my confidence on xiz (I wouldn't be pushing to kill one of the three claims without a lot of confidence) and knowing that in order for xiz to claim he had to be prepared to stay outside the AC Room last night, which means DBP being seered in the Dino room clears him.

I don't share your confidence on xiz which is why I was pushing this as a possibility

[Vendetta21]

Re: TWG CXLIV - The Freeze Wars (Sex Live)

when did I say this

okay gimme a sec

roundbox [11:18 PM] feeling pretty confident about rzr/tokzic/dabackpack

you said this