TWG CXX: Villains United

[TWG Gantu]

Re: TWG CXX: Villains United

I voted you like, a day ago, it just didn't count until now, so I made it again. I'm not taking offense or offended.

[TWG Gantu]

Re: TWG CXX: Villains United

I -AM- however going to bed.

[TWG The Queen]

Re: TWG CXX: Villains United

And you've got Muntz as 'why didn't he die with a gun in his hand?' hanging over his head.

thats pretty weak by itself, 1shot day vigi compared to blues that could be out there? doesnt warrant a lynch imo

[TWG Gantu]

Re: TWG CXX: Villains United

Syndrome thought it was suspicious and got Wolfed.

I still think you're a Hero and you're the one who talked him out of using it on Hades/Auto who were both Heros.

You only pushed him to use it the next day on one of the top targets when you continued bringing up Darla as a top target another day in a row, and she's seered Villain too.

You being Master Hero actually doesn't look too far out into left field at this point.

[TWG Gantu]

Re: TWG CXX: Villains United

Just going to bring this back out to the front since I'll probably be posting from phone for most of the day tomorrow and God Help Me if I tried to do this on a touchscreen, it's just my original "Here's why I suspect The Queen" post.

[spoiler]
Alright, so I've gone back with the powers of knowing I nailed one Hero for slipups around them, and I'm going to risk trying again to suggest why I am suspecting TWG The Queen of being a Hero.

So for starters, we have Charles coming out as holding a gun...at this time, the lead two for votecount are Hades and Auto, confirmed now as both heros. At that time, people are advocating for shooting one of the two of them for the info of the flip, and now she is going

charles save ur gun for a day 3 #headshot

talking him OUT of hitting a Hero or a Hero.

Then suggests:

hades wagon sketching me out a tiny tiny bit for the same reason as hans wagon d1 but i like the early voters and someones gotta die. hades time for u to choke!!!! let this be the one plz

Hero team, realising one or both of them was going to die, saw Auto switch to Hades, since Auto had the best other cover, and once that happened, The Queen immidiately goes to "Welp, kill Hades, now!" which hopefully pushed the lynch fast enough that the gun wouldn't drop them both.

People end up talking more about Auto in the wake of the Hades lynch, and a mention gets this:

show ur work

When she starts to push on people, she comes out with this great gem:

Maleficent, i get to make pushes without giving reasons because nobody is pressuring me, which means heroes dont think they can get me lynched. i can show my work if i have to but right now im in a position where i can demand essays from other ppl and its pretty sweet

"Man isn't it great that the Heros don't think I can get lynched? It's so great that the heros, the ones I tried to move us away from possibly killing two at once, aren't going to get rid of me, wonder why not!"

some of the reasons given for suspecting auto make sense i think. hades and auto were the only 2 major wagons in d2 tho, so for auto to be a hero, pretty much all of those before hades/auto turn on each other have to be from villa. not sure how plausible i think that is, sounds unlikely on paper but i havent actually reread to see what i think #LAZY

MAN THERE'S NO WAY THEY'RE BOTH HEROES! oh wait, they both totally were. My logic completely makes sense and is no way an attempt to keep a lynch or gun away from Auto!

i dont think im crazy about having auto or yzma die next

Lets not kill Auto...

i guess auto is the lynch, if ur not making a huge push somewhere else then save ur breath for later

Welp, Auto's dead, better accept it, and start to cover my tracks.


I know this isn't nearly as damning as the logic on Auto, and I'm willing to hear a response from The Queen, but it looks to me like a similar failure of consistancy combined with actions that seemed individually reasonable at the time, but knowing that The Queen would know Hades and Auto were both heros looks a lot more like Hero behavior to me.[/quote]

[TWG Gantu]

Re: TWG CXX: Villains United

Well shit. Xiz, any chance I can appeal to Host powers to fix that lack of closing spoiler tag?

[TWG Gantu]

Re: TWG CXX: Villains United

Did a /quote by mistake like a champ. Goddamn 2am shouldn't feel this late.

[TWG The Queen]

Re: TWG CXX: Villains United

Whoa whoa whoa hang on a sec...Don't I get a say on whether or not I get shot in the face?

Either claim a role or this is probably gonna happen imo

coaching maybe?

[TWG Maleficent]

Re: TWG CXX: Villains United

Seriously, how is it an "Insta vote" when I made my case and basically made my vote the better part of a day ago. Heaven forbid anybody aggressively push on people they suspect.

night posting or not, i'd still technically call it an instakill but if you think my definition of an instakill sucks i'm not really in a position to argue

If anything, you've got Darla as villain, you've got Queen as villain but who has gone super hard on Darla from the outset, and Yzma as a villain. If there's a Master Wolf in there, it could as easily be Queen as anybody.

i was really fucking nervous about the queen railing on darla on days 2-3 but i just didn't want to believe i could be that unlucky
however, i think the godfather could just as easily be charles
i don't think a hero would shoot a villa if there was a significant chance that they could be revealed
therefore, it is possible that he is the godfather and isn't submitting ANY of the kills to avoid getting bombed, so that the only thing that could possibly expose him is the oracle

Out of curiosity, did you Seer Darla or The Queen first?

i checked darla first

[TWG The Queen]

Re: TWG CXX: Villains United

responding to gantus post

So for starters, we have Charles coming out as holding a gun...at this time, the lead two for votecount are Hades and Auto, confirmed now as both heros. At that time, people are advocating for shooting one of the two of them for the info of the flip, and now she is going



talking him OUT of hitting a Hero or a Hero.

this never happened, nobody was talking about shooting a gun day 2. charles said he thought about it but changed his mind

Hero team, realising one or both of them was going to die, saw Auto switch to Hades, since Auto had the best other cover, and once that happened, The Queen immidiately goes to "Welp, kill Hades, now!" which hopefully pushed the lynch fast enough that the gun wouldn't drop them both.

or maybe i thought hades was a good lynch? its a creative theory but its wrong, sorry

MAN THERE'S NO WAY THEY'RE BOTH HEROES! oh wait, they both totally were. My logic completely makes sense and is no way an attempt to keep a lynch or gun away from Auto!

the logic was there. everybody who voted auto/hades before they voted each other are prob villa. its good to know, sure u can say i wasnt making sense now that the auto flip has come out but thats hindsight bias

plz just focus on todays lynch, its not darla and its not me and its not yzma

[TWG The Queen]

Re: TWG CXX: Villains United

im really only looking at Ursula and Charles for the lynch i think. i might have too many villa reads though, i need to sort out whos actually LOCK CLEAR based on the flips and d1-3 voting.

Ursula lets fire this one up now, basically u have only tried to lynch ppl who either flipped villa later or are prob villa. what looks worse is the weak Gaston push d1. i dont think u wanted gaston to get lynched

[TWG Maleficent]

Re: TWG CXX: Villains United

i'm gonna go ahead and math this out:
13 people are still alive, of whom 3 are heroes
my logic obviously depends on me not being a hero so i'll remove myself, leaving 12
10 of these people will turn up villain if i check them, but one of them is the godfather
i checked 3 of them
the probability that the gf is among the people i checked is 9C2/10C3 = 0.3
if the gf IS in that group, the probability that one of them in particular is gf is 1 in 3, meaning that overall there's a 1 in 10 chance that each of those three individually is the gf

of the 9 people i didn't check, 2 of them are definitely heroes and a third might be as well
the odds of a particular one of them being a hero is (3/10)*(2/9)+(7/10)*(3/9) = 3/10

each person i didn't check is 3 times more likely to be a hero than each person i did check, but the downside is there's 3 times as many of them

[TWG Maleficent]

Re: TWG CXX: Villains United

also if xiz actually used all of the power roles he listed, half the living villains are power roles
that's hilarious

[TWG Syndrome]

Re: TWG CXX: Villains United

[SIZE="4"][B]In the night, Syndrome has died.

Gay

[TWG Jafar]

Re: TWG CXX: Villains United

Muntz

With passion and emphasis

Will try to put together a timeline on Vigi shooting later today.