TWG CXX: Villains United

[TWG Jafar]

Re: TWG CXX: Villains United

don't edit your posts jafar

Quotes around pretending. Thought I was getting them in before the minute free edit timing window closed.

Won't happen again.

[TWG Hades]

Re: TWG CXX: Villains United

a hero might vote on a villa/villa kitb because they believe one or the other might be blue, or to cast suspicion on someone they want to kill the next day

That is possible in theory, but it does not seem plausible in this case. Any blue on the chopping block is not going to say "vote for me" they are going to say "I am blue, don't vote for me" so that the Heroes at least have to use a night kill on them. At least I would hope that no blues go down without a fight.

As far as suspicion, it seems to me that the person who gets the most suspicion from breaking a KITB would be the person who broke the KITB and the person who they saved. Heroes want to avoid attention, so doing this is pointless and stupid if it is Villain/Villain, and only makes sense if it is Villain/Hero.

there's a much broader range of possibilities than narrow little game theory diamonds of decision-making; the more important questions are about Auto's behaviors in context of what he said in the past and what he says in the future and whether or not that decision fits with what his intentions appear to be elsewhere

There is definitely a broader range of possibilities, but so far none of them are plausible in my opinion. As for narrow little game theory diamonds of decision making, how do you expect to play this game? Based on broad sweeping generalizations and 'feelings' about other players?

Who did you vote for again yesterday? (Don't answer this, it's rhetorical.)

[TWG Jafar]

Re: TWG CXX: Villains United

Blaming Hans for not defending himself - Hans did defend himself, and rather well for D1. He split his time between defense and he did his hero searching research and he added to general conversation. All of that was pro Villian.

Hi I read through your post history and didn't see anything please quote your defenses of hans TIA

Hans has been up there all day, despite making some solid contributions and train of thought logic.

Hook almost wiggled out once already, despite not doing anything about it and I really didn't like that.

Kinda thought I posted a more vocal defense of Hans, so I forgive you for missing that one post. I was focused on trying to get Hook lynched, and in being forcused on that I guess I didn't defend Hans to the thread.

It's still pretty obvious from my fervor in going after Hook that I thought Hook was the better lynch. Hell Hook thought hans was a bad ynch.

[TWG Hades]

Re: TWG CXX: Villains United

Yes, but at the time Hans was looking guilty, so Hook sticking up for him only made Hans look worse.

[TWG Cruella De Vil]

Re: TWG CXX: Villains United

What I'm trying to say is the conclusion you've narrowed in on (that Hook is the best lynch choice) excludes a lot of possibilities

1. If we lynch Auto today and he comes up Hero, Hook is almost certainly Hero
2. If we lynch Auto today and he comes up Villain, Hook could be either
3. If we lynch Hook today and he comes up Hero, Auto could be either
4. If we lynch Hook today and he comes up Villain, Auto is almost certainly Villain

this is what you said (added numbers to your words)

So you chose hook based on this game theory diamond, but Hook being hero is partly indicated (in your opinion) by the possibility that Auto might be hero, but auto being a Hero NECESSARILY indicates that Hook is a hero, yet you chose killing Hook because he might be a hero, and if he isn't we get the benefit of clearing Auto???? If there is a seer in this game auto is likely either cleared or not already, but the bigger thing is why wouldn't you be interested in the choice that would possibly catch you two wolves if your going to think using a methodology like this???

See this is what I'm talking about when I say that your game theory diamond is really narrowing and excluding possibilities and just basically saying "fuck reading people's behaviors, I'm going to arbitraily slice up the playerbase and play some dumb version of checkers."

Plus you haven't really supported why you "believe" either auto or hook must be a hero????

I think the Queen is probably thinking along the right lines looking at people who stayed away from the lynch choices entirely.

But for now I'm going to vote for Hades because he's trying to pretend he has considered a lot of shit that I just honestly don't believe he has. The whole strategy seems like its pulled out of his ass and he's just bushwhacking to get through every point people bring up in contention to it, but the big thing is saying he has considered these possibilities I've brought up when the original post really doesn't indicate that he has considered them (otherwise why wouldn't you just tell people in the case your selling to them those other options and why they aren't viable??)

[TWG Cruella De Vil]

Re: TWG CXX: Villains United

Kinda thought I posted a more vocal defense of Hans, so I forgive you for missing that one post. I was focused on trying to get Hook lynched, and in being forcused on that I guess I didn't defend Hans to the thread.

yeah this is what i'm talking about, not that you fucked up somehow but how your past beliefs and preferences (or in this case, impressions of your own behavior) are really easily revised when you get new information and that it's not entirely intentional

for the record i didn't miss that post i just didn't think it was at all convincing and didn't think it intended to serve the purpose of "keeping hans alive" which to me indicates a degree of uncertainty about hans at the time (just uncertain enough about his alignment to commit to seriously defending him)

[TWG Jafar]

Re: TWG CXX: Villains United

Fair enough.

[TWG Hades]

Re: TWG CXX: Villains United

What I'm trying to say is the conclusion you've narrowed in on (that Hook is the best lynch choice) excludes a lot of possibilities



this is what you said (added numbers to your words)

So you chose hook based on this game theory diamond, but Hook being hero is partly indicated (in your opinion) by the possibility that Auto might be hero, but auto being a Hero NECESSARILY indicates that Hook is a hero, yet you chose killing Hook because he might be a hero, and if he isn't we get the benefit of clearing Auto???? If there is a seer in this game auto is likely either cleared or not already, but the bigger thing is why wouldn't you be interested in the choice that would possibly catch you two wolves if your going to think using a methodology like this???

See this is what I'm talking about when I say that your game theory diamond is really narrowing and excluding possibilities and just basically saying "fuck reading people's behaviors, I'm going to arbitraily slice up the playerbase and play some dumb version of checkers."

Plus you haven't really supported why you "believe" either auto or hook must be a hero????

I think the Queen is probably thinking along the right lines looking at people who stayed away from the lynch choices entirely.

But for now I'm going to vote for Hades because he's trying to pretend he has considered a lot of shit that I just honestly don't believe he has. The whole strategy seems like its pulled out of his ass and he's just bushwhacking to get through every point people bring up in contention to it, but the big thing is saying he has considered these possibilities I've brought up when the original post really doesn't indicate that he has considered them (otherwise why wouldn't you just tell people in the case your selling to them those other options and why they aren't viable??)

Interesting, because to me it seems like you are dismissing valid logic by calling it a game theory diamond, and ignoring the fact that none of the counterpoints that you brought up make any logical sense. If i can't base theory on motivation for actions, what can I base it on? Do you come into a game of TWG and assume that everyone will act in the most random manner possible and that the only way to catch Heroes is to catch them lying? If that is the case, I can point you to a number of games where Wolves use Human lies to push bad lynches through.

I chose Hook based on logic, not a 'game theory diamond'.

You said:

a hero might vote on a villa/villa kitb because they believe one or the other might be blue, or to cast suspicion on someone they want to kill the next day

And I refuted both of these points. Neither is valid. How can you say that I have not considered them? Did you not read my reply? Apparently you need to stop skimming.

As for why I would not be for a case that gets us two Heroes: with that method we either lynch a Hero and get two, or lynch a Villain and have no extra information to work with. With the other approach we can either lynch a Hero and have some information to work with on top of it, or we can lynch a Villain and clear another Villain in the process.

I would rather go with the approach where we get some upside regardless of outcome. I would rather hedge my bets, and make sure that even if I am wrong, I get some information anyways.

[TWG Hades]

Re: TWG CXX: Villains United

And it's not ignoring peoples' behaviors. Behavior is the reason that I focused on Hook and Auto, maybe I didn't make that clear. The only reason I thought this through was because both Hook and Auto are looking more than a little Heroic to me at this point.

[TWG Hades]

Re: TWG CXX: Villains United

I was just trying to come up with a logical basis for getting as much information out of the situation as possible.

[Xiz]

Re: TWG CXX: Villains United

You should probably go back to the end of the day and re-read my stance and play. You know, during that time you sat in the back and did nothing.

I explained several times why I thought Hans was human, and I was heavily trying to get Hook lynched over Hans. There was no "pretending" that my motives or beliefs were different.

By taking such a stance you make it pretty clear you haven't done anything more then skim over the end of Day 1.

Do not edit posts. This is your first and final warning.

[TWG Hades]

Re: TWG CXX: Villains United

Hook's attitude bothered me all day. He refused to try to contribute at the beginning of the day and put off any attempts to get information from him, which to me seemed like an attempt to get back off the radar without providing anything that could be used against him later. When that didn't work, he went inactive for a while (possibly trying to wait for everything to blow over). During this time, if I remember correctly, Auto came to his defense (just another piece of data linking them).

Gaston had a similar attitude that also bothered me, and I would consider voting for him if there isn't a push in the Hook/Auto direction.

Shere Khan either needs to start posting or be replaced.

[TWG Jafar]

Re: TWG CXX: Villains United

Cat crew falling apart.

[TWG Cruella De Vil]

Re: TWG CXX: Villains United

And it's not ignoring peoples' behaviors. Behavior is the reason that I focused on Hook and Auto, maybe I didn't make that clear. The only reason I thought this through was because both Hook and Auto are looking more than a little Heroic to me at this point.

Do you believe hook is more suspicious than auto?

If you believe they are equally suspicious, then wouldn't picking the one that, if you were actually right, necessarily tells you two kills (in your opinion) be the better option? Why would you prioritize the one that would give you information tomorrow if you happened to be wrong? Do you have a latent expectation that you are going to make the wrong decision and that is influencing your decision making?

If it is the case that you believe one is actually more suspicious than the other and that influences your preferences, then why did you feel the need to arbitrarily divide things up in that fashion?

[TWG Darla]

Re: TWG CXX: Villains United

Hello friends

my power has returned; there was a nasty storm last night and on top of the shit my computer was already pulling on me, the power dropped for quite a while. I've been trying to keep up with the thread on my phone while conserving charge on it, and so far from the looks of it, my computer is done being an ass, so I can resume play as normal.


NOW


It seems like we've started the day looking at ~2 people out of 18. While I guess it's whatever if one person does it, why does no one else look elsewhere?

Personally, from their interaction this phase, i'm getting villain/villain leans out of Syndrome/Hades. Both seem to be putting in earnest efforts for leads.

I'm with Yzma, though, I would like to hear from and look at Gaston at the moment. What basis did you have for yesterday's random voting patterns? Would you like to follow up on this post at all? I imagine you're caught up by now; who are your current suspicions? Why didn't you vote at EoD at all?

Also I am back and am in dire need of reading the past day's worth of material. Though I gather from the quick skim of the vote counts it looks like Hans is pretty much the lynch.