FFR poker league -dead-

**Plan_Bsk81127** · 02-4-2011, 10:28 PM

Re: FFR poker league -ongoing-

Originally posted by Reach

I like this hand, personally: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jkmc1lG3N4w

Reasons:

1. It has happened to me before
2. It makes me feel better seeing it happen to Ivey

3. Commentators orgasming @ 2:30 = lmao.

I F'in lol'd at this part. XD

**nois-or-e** · 02-4-2011, 11:24 PM

Re: FFR poker league -ongoing-

Completely unrelated, but I keep reading all of reach's posts in Sheldons voice. . .

**awein999** · 02-4-2011, 11:50 PM

Re: FFR poker league -ongoing-

Originally posted by Reach

I like this hand, personally: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jkmc1lG3N4w

Reasons:

1. It has happened to me before
2. It makes me feel better seeing it happen to Ivey

3. Commentators orgasming @ 2:30 = lmao.

I'm guessing what this is without clicking. Phil Ivey, Patrick Antonious, Tom Dwan playing three handed. Tom dwan has 67 suited phil ivey has A2. flop has 3 and 5. Turn is 4 with no flushes on board. And they get all 1.1 million in the pot. Ivey drawing dead. Biggest pot in televised poker history.

Am I right? lolz.

**rparty89** · 02-5-2011, 08:10 AM

Re: FFR poker league -ongoing-

sweet i'll join (not sure to use as a username)

**ddrmaniacaaa** · 02-5-2011, 08:43 AM

Re: FFR poker league -ongoing-

Best laydown?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8go5NjXqgZc&feature=related

**Reach** · 02-5-2011, 09:37 AM

Re: FFR poker league -ongoing-

That hand is pretty sick. I can't ever recommend laying down there though. Even if I'm suspicious of being beat there, which I would be in that scenario, I'm still calling. It's obvious he isn't bluffing, but he could be raising there with a straight or a 10 for value against hands with say, an ace in them, which might call there.

I mean, do the math with ranges here. Clearly a call is better than a fold unless you have a soul read.

Hands he's raising that have you beat: AA, KK and TT.
Hands he's raising that don't have you beat: AT, KT, JT, AQ, KQ, QQ, QJ, QT, and maybe even T9 if he's a loose player.
I'll exclude bluffs here because only a tard would bluff there when the other guy leads on the river.

Ergo, you're probably right on your call some 75% of the time here, and in terms of pot odds you only need to be right about 30% of the time here for the call to be profitable.

But the fact that he laid it down correctly is pretty damn impressive. Then again, I never would have checked that hand down like that in the first place, so. It's an interesting board to lead with there if you have jacks, and the guy with kings almost had to bet there. Sure, not betting is sneaky, but when you do bet it's hard to get paid off.

**lumphoboextreme** · 02-5-2011, 12:51 PM

Re: FFR poker league -ongoing-

he would've made that same raise to 6k with just a queen for the straight lols

**Reincarnate** · 02-5-2011, 07:31 PM

Re: FFR poker league -ongoing-

That 1 in 2.7 billion statistic seemed too retardedly high for that sort of situation -- I wasted a good part of my day trying to figure out how the hell they got that figure and what I would calculate instead.

One huge thing about multiplayer Poker probabilities I failed to really take into account earlier is that you have to really have to be careful and account for overlaps. Since there is a finite deck and a shared pool of community cards, you can't just calculate an independent probability and overlap it. Sometimes certain play situations have different implications based on the fact that you have a finite deck and only so many ways a particular play can be distributed.

So I *think* this is what they did to get 1 in 2.7 billion, but also why I disagree with it:

P(player holds KJ of a like suit) = (4 choose 1)/(52 choose 2)
P(other player holds AA, but of a different suit from the KJ) = (3 choose 2)/(50 choose 2)

The remaining 5 cards must include remaining 2 aces, the relevant queen, the relevant 10, and a random kicker. We know what those remaining two aces must be, and we also know what the relevant queen and 10 must be, so that means the kicker can take on 52 - 4 hole cards - 4 necessary conditionals = 44 possibilities.

Given that there are 44 possibilities for this situation out of (48 choose 5) cards left for the flop, turn, and river, and multiplying this entire thing by 2 (since there are 2 ways for all of this to occur -- to either player 1 or player 2), that means the probability is:

2*((4 choose 1)/(52 choose 2)*(3 choose 2)/(50 choose 2)*44/(48 choose 5)) = 3.7966751 * 10^(-10) or 1 in 2,633,883,525 which I think they rounded up to 2.7 billion.

But really this just assumes you start out with something like KJ when really you can start out with KQ, KT, QK, QT, or JT, too (therefore bringing it up from (4 choose 1) to 6*(4 choose 1), rendering the rest of the calculations to be the same due to the necessary conditions of the remaining 5 cards, changing the probability to 2*(6*(4 choose 1)/(52 choose 2)*(3 choose 2)/(50 choose 2)*44/(48 choose 5)) = 2.27800506 * 10^(-9) or 1 in 438,980,588, which seems a lot more reasonable to me.

**Reach** · 02-5-2011, 08:17 PM

Re: FFR poker league -ongoing-

I'm not actually sure how to calculate that probability, but it's not really that important. The more important point is most people can expect to never have that happen to them in their entire poker career. Even players that have played millions of hands never run into a scenario like that.

I have encountered, thus far, quads over quads (Twice. Won one, lost the other ), but never straight flush over straight flush, or straight flush over quads.

Edit: After pondering it, I'm pretty sure you're right Rubix. About both the actual value and where the original came from.

**awein999** · 02-6-2011, 01:07 AM

Re: FFR poker league -ongoing-

At a casino I had pocket nines and flop was 4 9 A rainbow and guy had pocket A's.

A week ago one of my friends had quad 8's while his opponent had a straight flush. Opponent flopped straight flush. And he ran into three of a kind on the turn, and then the quads on the river. Pretty sick.

**Reincarnate** · 02-6-2011, 10:14 AM

Re: FFR poker league -ongoing-

this is hilarious

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BIo-2_vRCBA&feature=related

**awein999** · 02-6-2011, 10:24 AM

Re: FFR poker league -ongoing-

Why Phil Laak is my favorite personality in poker: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pD-63PHMGbo

**Reach** · 02-6-2011, 10:33 AM

Re: FFR poker league -ongoing-

Originally posted by Reincarnate

this is hilarious
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BIo-2...eature=related

God, that was a stupid call. You're never ahead. You're pretty much always a significant underdog to win, and Bellande isn't giving him good odds (you shouldn't be calling this unless you're ahead more than 40% of the time)

This is the reason I prefer cash games over tournaments. If someone does this to me I'll laugh and re-buy. I can feel Bellande's pain here, as I've ran into a lot of these thus far in tourneys.

Why Phil Laak is my favorite personality in poker: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pD-63PHMGbo

Dwan and Blom are really, really notorious for doing this type of super-range merging type bets.

e.g. here he does the exact same thing and gets phil to pay him off: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kg0kd...eature=related

This is why I would never, ever want to play Dwan heads up in NLHE lmao. Nor Viktor Blom, or Daniel Cates. All of those guys are just retardedly good.

**Reincarnate** · 02-6-2011, 10:43 AM

Re: FFR poker league -ongoing-

Wow WTF is up with this Hellmuth guy

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=99-jcla0MHc

**awein999** · 02-6-2011, 10:51 AM

Re: FFR poker league -ongoing-

Originally posted by Reincarnate

Wow WTF is up with this Hellmuth guy

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=99-jcla0MHc

Emotional when things don't go his way. HUGE ego. Tight aggressive. Good at manipulating lesser skilled players, good at reading lesser skilled players. Doesn't compete very well against former professionals in general.

edit: Known for his success in tournaments.