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Old 07-16-2021, 10:10 AM   #54
WirryWoo
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Default Re: 14th Official Tournament Predictions Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by aperson View Post
The best way to improve at FFR is to play Etterna did your algorithm think about that
No. That would assume having a reliable mapping to point usernames on FFR to Etterna and translating the languages between Etterna's MSD and FFR's skill rating. Both are nearly impossible to do automatically.

Quote:
Originally Posted by FlynnMac View Post
Decided to see who could get the win based on the highest cumulative total while I was at it, because I tried it out in 13.5 and it was pretty accurate, so this is what I got for round 1 (it gets more accurate I'd say the further in it goes).

Predictions:

Top 8 of Division 1 (Top 4 in no order):
1. Fireo
sff_writer_dan
Telnaior
Zeldagurlfan1
5. diddleysquin
6. The_Popo
7. Frans813
8. SwedishMeatballs


Potential Top 8 of Division 2 (In no order):
1. awesomebox
beamswordsman
chuckman
Deathserpent2
Demonader
HBar
miiklo
NapalmDaDon
popo55
Puzzler64
Rukairi
TopeDogeWOW
x_egeltje_x


Potential Top 8 of Division 3 (In no order):
1. 123kappa3
4key
csoup1414
exchro
Kawaii025
KillerScythe0
Killuala
Logman6656
oOL3G1TxG4M3ROo
reedkmeister
rsr2
ScienceCrafter
SC_coolguy44
sonic10110
TheLegendofPie
themastergrant
tmgCryptX
Toxicity783
_DJ Vinyl_


Potential Top 8 of Division 4 (In no order):
1. Bok-XN
Doughdough
JibsterGamez
JonlovesDDR
stepman5
Twisue
uzzbuzz
Zlyice
_PhoenixFire_


Top 8 of Division 5 (In no order):
1. 3lijah
axith
Defluxit
MarcusHawkins
Phynx
Psycast
Seoulslayer
XJ-9


Top 8 of Division 6 (Top 7 in no order):
1. aperson
choof
MyNameIsNothing
Nikita3006
Novelties
radioamor
remedy1502
8. Snupeh


Top 8 of Division 7:
1. Naheeno
2. CallMeMessyy
3. Thasyka
4. Eryyy
5. mi40
6. BigHayden1
7. _Zenith_
8. Cryolien


Potential Top 8 of Division 8 (In no order):
1. AnMaO
Elah
Eliminate294
Hanatachi
Matthia
SoFast
XtraFestive
XxNewson1234xX
Zoobin4
Thanks for compiling this list. An interesting idea would be to combine the two ratings together. Something like:

Before Tournament Start: 100% Skill Rating, 0% Tournament Performance
After Round 1: 87.5% Skill Rating, 12.5% Tournament Performance
After Round 2: 75% Skill Rating, 25% Tournament Performance
After Round 3: 62.5% Skill Rating, 37.5% Tournament Performance
After Round 4: 50% Skill Rating, 50% Tournament Performance
After Round 5: 37.5% Skill Rating, 62.5% Tournament Performance
After Round 6: 25% Skill Rating, 75% Tournament Performance
After Round 7: 12.5% Skill Rating, 87.5% Tournament Performance
After Tournament End: 0% Skill Rating, 100% Tournament Performance (winners are known at this point)

It's not hard to standardize all the values to a scale between 0 and 1 in both Skill rating and Tournament Performance metrics and for each case, this would measure the "percentile of how you compare against everyone else in your division", so it also makes sense.

I can generate that list too if there's enough interest.
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