TWG Turbo 35: A Small Gathering [GAME THREAD]

[_Zenith_]

Re: TWG Turbo 35: A Small Gathering [GAME THREAD]

I'm a bit busy right now. For the love of god, please do not vote or hammer in the next couple hours.

Anyway, the wolf is likely Zenith. Their vote for Raeko was borderline outing.

My hammer outed me? That's a shame, wagonomics puts you there too homie.

I have to parse through you vs Haze conversation that I was glossing over during EoD

My vote on Raeko solidifies my theory that you are actually deepwolfing and I do not see the world which Haze makes this F3 possible. I think I was getting somewhere by not having you as a strong town but rather as a deep wolf. What are the fucking chances that we discussed this yesterday, you didn't think I would even make it to F3 cause people were almost consensus voting me and here I am, stuck with my gut read that I've maintained since the start of this and my last phase suspicion.

[leetic]

Re: TWG Turbo 35: A Small Gathering [GAME THREAD]

My hammer outed me? That's a shame, wagonomics puts you there too homie.

I have to parse through you vs Haze conversation that I was glossing over during EoD

My vote on Raeko solidifies my theory that you are actually deepwolfing and I do not see the world which Haze makes this F3 possible. I think I was getting somewhere by not having you as a strong town but rather as a deep wolf. What are the fucking chances that we discussed this yesterday, you didn't think I would even make it to F3 cause people were almost consensus voting me and here I am, stuck with my gut read that I've maintained since the start of this and my last phase suspicion.

LOL

I'll post a more detailed case on you when I have time but this is just LOL

[_Zenith_]

Re: TWG Turbo 35: A Small Gathering [GAME THREAD]

LMAOOOO this is hilarious and the comic relief I was looking for

[Haze with a Z]

Re: TWG Turbo 35: A Small Gathering [GAME THREAD]

Not locked, but the wolf can hammer if a single townie votes wrong so be prudent.

I was thinking I could do that thing where you vote someone and then unvote when the mafia try to vote but somehow I imagined it in the opposite way so my idea woulda flopped either way. Like somehow I was going to out someone that wouldn’t be online.

[Haze with a Z]

Re: TWG Turbo 35: A Small Gathering [GAME THREAD]

LMAOOOO this is hilarious and the comic relief I was looking for

I wish I had that sense of humour because I just walked away feeling confused

[Haze with a Z]

Re: TWG Turbo 35: A Small Gathering [GAME THREAD]

I will actually read stuff later but I’m doing a Mario kart thing rn

[_Zenith_]

Re: TWG Turbo 35: A Small Gathering [GAME THREAD]

I was thinking I could do that thing where you vote someone and then unvote when the mafia try to vote but somehow I imagined it in the opposite way so my idea woulda flopped either way. Like somehow I was going to out someone that wouldn’t be online.

This is a bad gambit that does not benefit town here

You were gunning for Leetic towards EoD there, do you still have those feelings or have they changed since the flips?

[_Zenith_]

Re: TWG Turbo 35: A Small Gathering [GAME THREAD]

LOL

I'll post a more detailed case on you when I have time but this is just LOL

It's LOL cause I'm probably very right

[leetic]

Re: TWG Turbo 35: A Small Gathering [GAME THREAD]

It's LOL cause I'm probably very right

Go on, keep giving yourself rope to hang yourself

[_Zenith_]

Re: TWG Turbo 35: A Small Gathering [GAME THREAD]

Go on, keep giving yourself rope to hang yourself

Go on, keep procrastinating this "case"

[leetic]

Re: TWG Turbo 35: A Small Gathering [GAME THREAD]

Go on, keep procrastinating this "case"

Volunteering in a food bank right now, I should be able to get home soon

[_Zenith_]

Re: TWG Turbo 35: A Small Gathering [GAME THREAD]

Volunteering in a food bank right now, I should be able to get home soon

Sounds good, if you find the time, please give your reasoning behind being sold on its me and not Haze here. Do you even see a world where Haze is a wolf?

[leetic]

Re: TWG Turbo 35: A Small Gathering [GAME THREAD]

Sounds good, if you find the time, please give your reasoning behind being sold on its me and not Haze here. Do you even see a world where Haze is a wolf?

I'm currently leaning 90% you and 10% Haze. I'll explain more in my detailed case

[leetic]

Re: TWG Turbo 35: A Small Gathering [GAME THREAD]

Alright, here is why I feel that Zenith is the most likely wolf here.

Contention 1: The Raeko vote

At EoD, wagons were 2-2, with me and MML on Raeko and Raeko and Haze on me. Zenith had the deciding vote here, and went for Raeko. Why? Zenith had me as a paranoia suspicion while having Raeko as solid town and no posts in their progression suggesting that they were reconsidering their read of that slot. As town, they should have voted me, but why not? Consider that Raeko had Zenith as a top wolfread for quite a while, being interested in pushing a Zenith lynch as late as 20 minutes before EoD. Any F3 where Raeko is still alive would be a very difficult position for Zenith to be in, whereas they could expect me and Haze to crossvote based on EoD. There's also the fact that they waited until the last minute to vote, which can be interpreted in a few ways. It could be inertia from sites that don't have hammers, not wanting to get any shit for hammering early, or carefully weighing which vote was better strategically. Still, the fact that they didn't post any reasons why they ultimately were leaning towards or went with a Raeko vote over a vote on me suggests against this being someone trying to solve who's the more likely wolf.

Contention 2: Every dead villager is pointing in Zenith's direction
XelNya - Expressed interest in voting Zenith because "consensus", and tried to switch to voting Zenith at the end but failed because of the hammer
roundbox - Zenith was the target they were pursuing most fervently
Raeko - As mentioned before, was pushing Zenith for a large percentage of D2 and D1 as well
MML - Explicitly townread both me and Haze, Raeko/Zenith was his exact PoE at EoD

Compare to the people who are still alive:
Myself - Did push Zenith for a good portion of D2, but also played devil's advocate to them in many ways
Haze - Pushed Zenith a bit D1, but retracted that push and never really saw them as a priority since

It's ultimately a pretty comfortable position for Zenith at F3, all things considered. While this isn't fully condemning on its own, when combined with the other evidence it does make you question why they're still alive.

Contention 3: Performativity
When they went into D2, they made a huge stink about how the D1 lynch was terrible and that roundbox was a bad kill. This alone is a red flag, as town isn't typically this performative and Zenith wasn't trying to channel it anywhere productive. When I actually pressed them on their thoughts on the roundbox kill, it's clear that they haven't actually put any thought into it. The only arguments about what they would hope to accomplish as wolf by leaving roundbox alive that made sense were the ones they blatantly lifted from me. It's clear that this wasn't a genuine towny thought and was likely more to deflect from making the kill and also cover up that roundbox had suspected them. Their response to me today is more of the same, acting very certain about why I was suspecting them (and being wrong) and also whinging about me being deepwolf, when the very reason I am still alive is becuase they voted their "townread" over me (the "deepwolf" terminology over "SK" was also lifted from me btw). It all feels very fake and deflective.

Bonus: SBPC

Not actually a part of my argument, but it would be funny if this was the case for basically the entire game.

Let's take a look at a couple of potential counterarguments to this case:

Counterargument 1: They're bold
There are a few problems with this argument at this stage in the game. Yes, some of their pushes like on me D1 and Haze D2 were a little bit bold. However, Haze made some bold moves to, like the tunnel on me D2. Some wolves do win by tunneling and forcing 1v1s with townies, but it is a move that requires risk, so it's not clear that Zenith even wins out on the "boldness" argument. Secondly, the Raeko vote shows when push comes to shove, their convictions don't seem to be super important. Thirdly, one area where Zenith wasn't bold was when voting: they voted someone who hadn't posted yet on D1 then quickly unvoted and never voted that day again, while being the last to vote D2 and waiting until the very last minute to do so. This isn't the behavior of someone too bold to be a wolf.

Counterargument 2: Noob town
Firstly, the Raeko vote was not a noob town move, noob town couldn't resist the temptation to get rid of one of their paranoia suspicions in that scenario. Secondly, this excuse increasingly ceases to be meaningful as the game goes on, a lot of wolfy plays can look "noob town" on the surface so that can't be a meaningful reason to townread this late in the game. Ultimately, it fails to outweigh all the other evidence.

Here's the point in the post where I would vote Zenith if there wasn't a hammer. Still, probably best to wait for Zenith's rebuttal and look at Haze a little bit. Haze hasn't been the best at towntelling, but the game just makes much more sense if Zenith is the wolf.

[Haze with a Z]

Re: TWG Turbo 35: A Small Gathering [GAME THREAD]

This is a bad gambit that does not benefit town here

You were gunning for Leetic towards EoD there, do you still have those feelings or have they changed since the flips?

It’s prob good I didn’t do it then.

Yes I still feel it is leetic but also I did kinda think that you were tunneling me and that if you weren’t the wolf we just lose here regardless so I had to hope you were wolf tbh.