14th Official Tournament Predictions Thread

**Kawaii025** · 07-14-2021, 06:40 PM

Re: 14th Official Tournament Predictions Thread

Originally posted by WirryWoo

A lot of swaps and changes since start of tournament. Here are the updated predictions (newest people color-coded in green)! Will be posting after each round

That would be amazins.

**sff_writer_dan** · 07-14-2021, 07:08 PM

Re: 14th Official Tournament Predictions Thread

I mean, are the predictions just "The people who AAA'd round 1 are likely to do well"?

**WirryWoo** · 07-14-2021, 07:23 PM

Re: 14th Official Tournament Predictions Thread

Originally posted by sff_writer_dan

Still no aperson in D6, you fool!

Yo aperson, play more FFR

Originally posted by csoup1414

I was shocked to be originally in the top 8 algorithm. Even more shocked when you updated it and it moved me to top 6.

I was in D4 for 13 and 13.5, but I was placed in D3 this time. So I guess we will see.

The update to D3 was mainly caused by the inactivity of two of the projected winners in D3. It moved you up two places

Originally posted by xXOpkillerXx

The fact that I'm considered as top 8 by your algorithm shows that there's missing data in D8 lmao

So true. Limited data is the biggest flaw in the overall approach and unfortunately this is more frequent during OT times haha.

Originally posted by sff_writer_dan

I mean, are the predictions just "The people who AAA'd round 1 are likely to do well"?

Nope, predictions are made based on the user's Top 100 scores. Any significant improvement there will bump the players up in the overall rated projections.

Again, these are only predictions. Don't take these predictions as gospel because anything can happen in the OT. rayword42 can skillboost to his doppelganger ULTIMEGA. choof can hurt himself again and get his cast put back on. Brasegali can skillboost to D8. Anything goes.

Myself, my gaming gear is in my apartment and I have to be in NYC with family to run important errands for a good while. I don't expect myself to get Top 8 this tourney even though my scripts are saying otherwise.

**aperson** · 07-14-2021, 07:59 PM

Re: 14th Official Tournament Predictions Thread

Originally posted by WirryWoo

Yo aperson, play more FFR

The best way to improve at FFR is to play Etterna did your algorithm think about that

**rayword45** · 07-14-2021, 08:08 PM

Re: 14th Official Tournament Predictions Thread

Originally posted by WirryWoo

rayword42 can skillboost to his doppelganger ULTIMEGA.

you are a mean person

**_DJ Vinyl_** · 07-14-2021, 08:44 PM

Re: 14th Official Tournament Predictions Thread

My Predictions for Top 3!!!: (Left 1st middle 2nd right 3rd)

D1: Fireo, The_Popo, sff_writer_dan
D2: TopeDogeWOW, HBar, Demonader
D3: Logman6656, _DJ Vinyl_, anrai
D4: Jonlovesddr, emulord, katanaeyegaming
D5: _Fluttershy_, Brasegali, axith
D6: Dark Saga, aperson, spongebobismysenpai
D7: Devilchilly, Cryolien, Josemba
D8: Matthia, AnMaO, Elah

**FlynnMac** · 07-16-2021, 01:20 AM

Re: 14th Official Tournament Predictions Thread

Decided to see who could get the win based on the highest cumulative total while I was at it, because I tried it out in 13.5 and it was pretty accurate, so this is what I got for round 1 (it gets more accurate I'd say the further in it goes).

Predictions:

**choof** · 07-16-2021, 07:36 AM

Re: 14th Official Tournament Predictions Thread

Originally posted by WirryWoo

choof can hurt himself again and get his cast put back on.

pls do not jinx me lmao being in a cast was depressing

**WirryWoo** · 07-16-2021, 09:10 AM

Re: 14th Official Tournament Predictions Thread

Originally posted by aperson

The best way to improve at FFR is to play Etterna did your algorithm think about that

No. That would assume having a reliable mapping to point usernames on FFR to Etterna and translating the languages between Etterna's MSD and FFR's skill rating. Both are nearly impossible to do automatically.

Originally posted by FlynnMac

Decided to see who could get the win based on the highest cumulative total while I was at it, because I tried it out in 13.5 and it was pretty accurate, so this is what I got for round 1 (it gets more accurate I'd say the further in it goes).

Predictions:

Thanks for compiling this list. An interesting idea would be to combine the two ratings together. Something like:

Before Tournament Start: 100% Skill Rating, 0% Tournament Performance
After Round 1: 87.5% Skill Rating, 12.5% Tournament Performance
After Round 2: 75% Skill Rating, 25% Tournament Performance
After Round 3: 62.5% Skill Rating, 37.5% Tournament Performance
After Round 4: 50% Skill Rating, 50% Tournament Performance
After Round 5: 37.5% Skill Rating, 62.5% Tournament Performance
After Round 6: 25% Skill Rating, 75% Tournament Performance
After Round 7: 12.5% Skill Rating, 87.5% Tournament Performance
After Tournament End: 0% Skill Rating, 100% Tournament Performance (winners are known at this point)

It's not hard to standardize all the values to a scale between 0 and 1 in both Skill rating and Tournament Performance metrics and for each case, this would measure the "percentile of how you compare against everyone else in your division", so it also makes sense.

I can generate that list too if there's enough interest.

**Moria** · 07-16-2021, 09:42 AM

Re: 14th Official Tournament Predictions Thread

idk wtf is going on but keep hitting buttons on those keybaords, ugot this

**sff_writer_dan** · 07-16-2021, 12:23 PM

Re: 14th Official Tournament Predictions Thread

Originally posted by WirryWoo

No. That would assume having a reliable mapping to point usernames on FFR to Etterna and translating the languages between Etterna's MSD and FFR's skill rating. Both are nearly impossible to do automatically.

Thanks for compiling this list. An interesting idea would be to combine the two ratings together. Something like:

Before Tournament Start: 100% Skill Rating, 0% Tournament Performance
After Round 1: 87.5% Skill Rating, 12.5% Tournament Performance
After Round 2: 75% Skill Rating, 25% Tournament Performance
After Round 3: 62.5% Skill Rating, 37.5% Tournament Performance
After Round 4: 50% Skill Rating, 50% Tournament Performance
After Round 5: 37.5% Skill Rating, 62.5% Tournament Performance
After Round 6: 25% Skill Rating, 75% Tournament Performance
After Round 7: 12.5% Skill Rating, 87.5% Tournament Performance
After Tournament End: 0% Skill Rating, 100% Tournament Performance (winners are known at this point)

It's not hard to standardize all the values to a scale between 0 and 1 in both Skill rating and Tournament Performance metrics and for each case, this would measure the "percentile of how you compare against everyone else in your division", so it also makes sense.

I can generate that list too if there's enough interest.

You guys know you can see who is winning by looking at the names on the dashboard right?

**mi40** · 07-16-2021, 02:08 PM

Re: 14th Official Tournament Predictions Thread

Originally posted by sff_writer_dan

You guys know you can see who is winning by looking at the names on the dashboard right?

the thread title is predictions, not current placements

**sff_writer_dan** · 07-16-2021, 03:12 PM

Re: 14th Official Tournament Predictions Thread

Originally posted by mi40

the thread title is predictions, not current placements

Well yes I know that, thank you.

**mi40** · 07-16-2021, 03:27 PM

Re: 14th Official Tournament Predictions Thread

Originally posted by sff_writer_dan

You guys know you can see who is winning by looking at the names on the dashboard right?

Well yes I know that, thank you.

**sff_writer_dan** · 07-16-2021, 03:29 PM

Re: 14th Official Tournament Predictions Thread

Originally posted by mi40

Well yes I know that, thank you.

14th Official Tournament Predictions Thread

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