TWG 194 - Game Thread

[DaBackpack]

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread

OKAY HELLO HI I DONT HAVE CONFIDENT READS WHICH IS WHY I WANT TO SHEEP MIKEY BUT I WILL TRY MY BEST

this is mylo dude. none of us have super-confident reads but we don't hide our actual opinions behind other players'. reading the will of the dead is a good idea in general but it looks like ALL YOU HAVE is the reads of dead people. how much have you been following the game? even fucking jessiebessie has been better at this than you and she's barely been here. at least her reads feel like they've come from her own brain.

[DaBackpack]

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread

The one problem is why scum would select Haku to perform the kill, since he was under a good amount of scrutiny at the end of D3. I can see why they'd choose Haku over jessie, but they had to have a third person that was less risky to try and perform the kill...

how many scrutiny was Haku actually under last phase?

[DaBackpack]

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread

-I think haku's wishy washiness is bad, they seemed to sheep the townread on me when i was consensus town in early days but not that it is apparent i could be mislycnhable they are building into lynching me, but still not really committing to a scumread. I get i can be tough to play with, but their progression on me feels super fake

How likely are you to vote outside me now?

Considering you were hard townreading me up to earlier today

"I don't think you're town. But please don't vote me this phase"

[DaBackpack]

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread

That would also explain why DBP was looking for a SK in Xiz at the beginning of the game.

(?)

bro I wasn't looking for a serial killer, I accused XIZ of looking for a serial killer

[Hakulyte]

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread

Well, I was mostly thinking out loud even if like 75% of it was probably nonsense if you take 5 seconds and think about it.

I bet I correct myself in the later posts too.

[DaBackpack]

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread

Well, I was mostly thinking out loud even if like 75% of it was probably nonsense if you take 5 seconds and think about it.

I bet I correct myself in the later posts too.

I'm stream-of-consciousness as I'm catching up it's fine

[DaBackpack]

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread

I highly doubt MML is lying his role, I think leetic is town despite having a lot of "what-if" posts

Haku feels like he's just confused and going tinfoil mode, which is standard for town Haku; in one lens it might look like he's freezing up and doesn't know what to do to defend himself but given the two options I'm inclined to think he's just overthinking and not able to confidently coalesce on any one worldview. It would be good to force him to behave coherently and at least get something committal from him, especially as time passes, so that Haku can be held actually accountable for something

Dusk has been a transient presence this game and his performance this phase has been underwhelming. I hesitate to think too much about "who would the wolves feel most comfortable with to send in the nightkill?", even though Dusk does potentially fit that bill because of a lack of attention. Duskfall comes from a really bad D3 performance, but he also wasn't really on anybody's radars.= The ideal selection for the nightkill if we decide to go down that route. So TL;DR I find it highly plausible that Duskfall WOULD be considered safe, especially if the wolves knew they could roleblock 1/2 roleblockers. It's impossible to prove anything obviously but I want to establish that-- yes, it is highly likely that Duskfall would be trusted to send in the NK if necessary. (That doesn't mean he DID; I'm responding to claims that "he couldn't possibly have.")

All of his main reads come from other players. He justifies his entire general presence in the game-- his "towniness", the "quality of his reads"-- entirely in terms of dead players. He's gaslighting other players about his towniness ("other dead players thought I was town. You all suck if you don't see that too!"). Haku looks better than Dusk when we look at the game as a whole, and Dusk's only real "way out" is to assert the "no kill" theory so that he can wiggle his way out and maybe take advantage of town's uncertainty and chaos to push some bullshit wagon.

So I'm not willing to give him that wiggle room, at least so easily. Instead of relying on the graciousness of everyone's rabid imaginations, you need to unambiguously act of your own accord and ----convince us---- that you are actually town, instead of weaseling out by saying "hmm I think a no kill is what we should be looking at instead of me directly!"

I intend to vote for Duskfall if things don't radically change in the next 12 hours or so.

[DaBackpack]

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread

One other thing. "No kill" and "Duskfall are wolves" are not mutually exclusive worlds. There is this convenient idea permeating the thread that even if we believe that a no kill happened, Duskfall is not worthy of scrutiny and that we should direct our attention to other players.

No, Duskfall CAN be a wolf AND not have sent in the wolfkill. For all we know Dusk/Haku are both wolves and neither of them sent in a kill. But the point to hammer home is

Dusk's alignment should not depend exclusively on any of these worlds

The only mechanical information we have about his alignment is that he was blocked and no kills happened. This adds scum equity to him.

If wolves truly did no-kill that should not make you slingshot your read and give him town cred. Please please please look at his slot and properly evaluate him.

When I was catching up it felt like somebody had laid a trap down. The narrative of a no-kill is still possible but Duskfall himself took advantage of that possibility to create the false dichotomy above. I want to stop this trap from firing before we all enter confirmation bias mode.

@Haku, what do you ACTUALLY THINK is happening right now? Put the bullshit aside, take off your tinfoil hat. You are not on the spot. Give us your honest-to-god thoughts

[Hakulyte]

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread

I don't really think it's that anti town at all
me getting lynched a day before lylo is not a big deal especially when it forces wolves to claim to survive

I'm not quite sure exactly what was FFA's plan in details here, but it seems like he had a strong interest in making claims roll and that it would lead to a wolf.

I'm VT. I didn't check anyone, I don't know if I got roleblocked.
DBP knows I was roleblocked, but I'm still claiming a red check. The only way that's mechanically possible is if dbp got roleblocked as well. They need to account for that possibility by having MML claim roleblocker as well

This turn of event feels like FFA might have caught a wolf MML here because of how specific and convenient was the roleblock on FFA. (or very unlucky coincidence #IForgot)

I did make a case against dbp

what happened? MML threw a tantrum

I had zero influence or inertia into pushing a dbp lynch, just like I had no influence or inertia trying to keep xiz alive till massclaim

I feel like FFA was barking at the wrong tree, but had the right idea.

Duskfall/MML are probably the most confident wolf reads I would give here.

The thing is that I could be wrong about MML in the world where we know that the entire wolf team is in the "VT pool".

I had a lot of talking about a potential MML/DBP team, but that world leads to the game having a SK which seems to be strangely incompatible with what's going on overall.

Honestly, I have a hard time town reading MML over DBP based on game progression and how things unfolded.

MML doesn't even look that bad either. It's just the claim that felt very out of place.

[Hakulyte]

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread

I think the highest % successful play here is to trust the roleblock on Duskfall (even if it's a no kill scenario).

Also, revisit MML if the game is not over.

I'm a bit worried about Jessie.
I have to say that I don't like how her posts are mostly about objective stuff.
Don't like X because didn't do enough or not enough by the book etc. and then kind of back away.
She was here, but it feels dodge-y kind of like Duskfall to me.

Bolth had a very similar game to me so, I tend to believe he feels organic enough for what the game gave him. I tend to town read him even if I'm not completely sure why. It's more like we keep reacting the same way to the same things.

ShadoWolfe is being ShadoWolfe I guess. I have no reason to scum read here, but paranoia.

Pretty much praying game is as simple as Duskfall/MML/Jessie.

[Hakulyte]

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread

That being said, I wanted to priorize a VT pool player.

Duskfall has mechanic baggage supporting the block. (well, at least from my perspective)
Jessie is mostly the UTR card being played a little too much.

MML feels too convenient for what the FFA vs DBP gave me and I think the point of him claiming here was to fit under the 1 PR/2 VTs pool to make solving more difficult.

[Hakulyte]

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread

Basically, MML would be a reverse pocket and the real person being pocketed here was DBP.

I'm going to look stupid in postgame aren't I ?

[Hakulyte]

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread

If wolves truly did no-kill that should not make you slingshot your read and give him town cred. Please please please look at his slot and properly evaluate him. [/B]

I went there, but I got to the conclusion that the only way a no-kill world would make sense is if both you and MML are wolves.

That world would lead to VCTTTTT and there's no sign of a SK.

That dimension kinds of become bogus because of it.

[Hakulyte]

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread

It's either that of MML took a gamble that your roleblock would fail.

The thing is that if MML and you are W/T then why in the world he doesn't just RB + NK you ?

It's sub optimal and nonsensical to me. I understand it can happen, but I don't want to believe it.

[Hakulyte]

Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread

If 2 roleblockers roleblock each others, but the wolf roleblocker is also doing a NK on that town player, does the town block succeed or they die ?

It leads me back to this question ^