jTWG LXXXIV: 8 New Players and Raeko Game Thread

[MarioNintendo]

Re: jTWG LXXXIV: 8 New Players and Raeko Game Thread

Thought #2 : When a wolf gives up
One set of posts that I couldn't get out of my head after the lynch was this one:

(6 minutes before deadline)

Something about you felt a little off and I was really confused here hold on...I'm gonna go back really fucking quick here

(4 mintues before deadline)

No I'm gonna keep it the way it is. I'm outtie! I'll catch you guys in the Post Game/Deadchat.

We go from
* Hey guys gimme a sec I can prove I'm innocent
to
* bye, I give up, see you next game, (soon you will know I'm a wolf and I'm ok with this)

There has to be a reason between this sudden switch in tone. I'll try to explore some of them

* Wolf chat interaction (aka "STFU, let me take it from here")
To me, this seems very probable. I can picture it in my head:

------------ Wolf Chat ---------------
shadow: Holy shit there's only 4 minutes left
wolf: That's not enough time you'll get lynched
shadow: No I'll come up with something, find some quotes I can use, we can probably move some votes
wolf: I don't think they're going to buy it. If you give additional reads and fail to survive, you'll probably incriminate me in d1. I can't take that risk.
shadow: Alright dammit, good luck
wolf: Thanks, I can manage
------------ /Wolf Chat ---------------

If we want to believe this option, I think it gives a certain character to the other wolf:
* Planning for the next days of the game, worrying that some slips might get out during eod
* Confident that they're better off playing alone than risking being handicapped with a slip

Overall, to me this just screams "Veteran wolf", someone who has rolled wolf before, or has seen enough games to see where that eod was headed. Someone active enough to catch Shadow_God in mid-air and prevent them from spilling some beans.

Looking at our set of players, this would put some light on:
- Gold Stinger (hate to list him, because I like GS very much this game, but if he was wolf this is how I think he would play it)
- Melloncollie
- Sanzath



* Shadow_God_10 just didn't feel like playing anymore?
Maybe no one told Shadow_God to give up.

Maybe he had just had enough.
He told us he had had health problems the day before, so he could have been recovering. Maybe he was getting too stressed out and he started to feel physically ill.

However, I doubt that Shadow_God hara-kiri'd out of lack of interest. His last post says "I'll catch you guys in the Post Game/Deadchat.", meaning he's excited for the game to end so that he can be able to discuss it in more details later on.

Anyway, if this option was the case, it probably invalidates the option above, so it's worth considering if this was Shadow_God's state of mind at eod.

My takeaway:
If we read correctly Shadow_God's quoted posts above, we might be able to understand what kind of wolf partner we're dealing with.

[MarioNintendo]

Re: jTWG LXXXIV: 8 New Players and Raeko Game Thread

Thought #3 : There's only one wolf left
I think this is the first time I'm in a game where there's only one wolf left standing. This got me thinking about how the mechanics change from this point on. The wolf is now unable to communicate with a teammate, both in the thread or in the secret wolf chat. This got me thinking.

We are all town except for one wold
This is a big change in mechanics. Fewer moving parts. The wolf has no possibility to vote or distance themself from their wolf partner from this point on. The only way a wolf can look good right now is by:
* Providing believable town reads (which should be easy, because the wolf knows anyone and everyone around them is town)
* Arguing a townie out of a lynch (which will always happen if they try)

I think "town reading" each other will give us a false sense of security. If I was a wolf on d1, I would try to make as little waves as possible: being invisible. It's easier to do this by "town reading" people than by "wolf reading" them. I think the wolf will still do their best to jump on a mislynch bus, but on d1 it seems risky.

This is why I delayed my posting a bit, I didn't want to overly influence the wolf's strategy.

Conclusion: To find the wolf this phase, I'll look at users who are
* easy going
* making obvious town reads (possibly to get people to agree with them and find them not menacing)

... I'll also be looking at people who seem to change personality after this specific post.

[B]How can a lonely wolf earn town's trust?
The wolf is in a tough position:
* All of their "town reads" will be correct
* ... But all of their "wolf reads" will be wrong

Thus, I believe the wolf will make as little reads as possible, not to leave any traces (especially if, after reading my Thought #2, we think we're dealing with a wolf who cares about slips).

I think that, if pressured, this wolf will give reads, possibly on all current players, but with no pressure, I don't see an incentive for them to give some bs reads (unless they are veteran, planned ahead and did exactly this). I also think that this post will influence the wolf's behavior, so I'll stay on the lookout for this.

[MarioNintendo]

Re: jTWG LXXXIV: 8 New Players and Raeko Game Thread

Errata:
in thought 1:
Before we read into this list, we must determine what was Shadow_God_10's intent as he was posting it.

[MarioNintendo]

Re: jTWG LXXXIV: 8 New Players and Raeko Game Thread

Errata:
in thought 2
In the wolfchat, I meant "shadow" to say only 6 minutes left

in thought 3
We are all town except for one wolf

[MarioNintendo]

Re: jTWG LXXXIV: 8 New Players and Raeko Game Thread

Yeah I didn't preview my posts, lol

[MarioNintendo]

Re: jTWG LXXXIV: 8 New Players and Raeko Game Thread

GS:

I’ve been busy, alwite? I still don’t see it. I read the pages you told me to read a couple more times, and I don’t see it. You’re trying to trick me by posting pages of long posts of TWG-lingo words. “It’s in there. If you don’t see it, that means you’re not paying attention/you’re inactive/you’re really bad at this game, and it has nothing to do with the fact that I can’t actually summarize my thoughts. Go back and read it a couple more times until you finally understand, it’s in there.”

Sanzath:

Where you said Shadow’s vote came from is the exact reason I can’t find it. It’s just random, lucky votes. Gotcha. But that also means all my previous reads are garbage because they’re based on the random, lucky votes.

Nah, Antori and dragon are no longer my vote. My vote’s for goldenstinger.

I don't think gold stinger is the wolf....
But if my earlier reasoning is correct, I don't think you're wolf either.

Really, one scenario I'm seeing here that ticks all the boxes is melloncollie

* Doesn't post a lot
* Town reads everyone (she did ask Antori to defend themself, but melloncollie never made a flat-out wolf read)
* Is the most likely to tell Shadow_God to STFU in wolf chat as illustrated in my thought #2
* I can see Shadow_God reacting within 2 minutes to melloncollie telling him to STFU


(melloncollie probably didn't use the words STFU, but you get the idea)

[MarioNintendo]

Re: jTWG LXXXIV: 8 New Players and Raeko Game Thread

* Doesn't post a lot

When I say "doesn't post a lot", I was mostly referring to d0. She did post a bit more (as she promised she would) in d1, so the inactivity doesn't factor in at this point in my opinion.

Rather, it has more to do with the fact that every post seems to very much go with the flow. It just stands out even more considering how limited her post count is.

[MarioNintendo]

Re: jTWG LXXXIV: 8 New Players and Raeko Game Thread

Alright, done for now. Excited to hear what you guys think

[ShyYoshiGuy]

Re: jTWG LXXXIV: 8 New Players and Raeko Game Thread

I don't think gold stinger is the wolf....
But if my earlier reasoning is correct, I don't think you're wolf either.

Really, one scenario I'm seeing here that ticks all the boxes is melloncollie

* Doesn't post a lot
* Town reads everyone (she did ask Antori to defend themself, but melloncollie never made a flat-out wolf read)
* Is the most likely to tell Shadow_God to STFU in wolf chat as illustrated in my thought #2
* I can see Shadow_God reacting within 2 minutes to melloncollie telling him to STFU


(melloncollie probably didn't use the words STFU, but you get the idea)

Sounds good enough. melloncollie

[MarioNintendo]

Re: jTWG LXXXIV: 8 New Players and Raeko Game Thread

wait, what happened to your gold stinger vote?

Why do you agree with me?

Remember, I have you on a wolf lean. I don't like driving a wagon with you on board

[MarioNintendo]

Re: jTWG LXXXIV: 8 New Players and Raeko Game Thread

See my thought #1

[dragonmegaXX]

Re: jTWG LXXXIV: 8 New Players and Raeko Game Thread

Alright, done for now. Excited to hear what you guys think

Honestly wow’d with how much thought you put into that. The only thing I thought odd was that you said I seemed in the top two most suspicious people in thought one, but then in thought two you said you found the people who were town reading the hardest were the ones who should auspicious, when I’ve spent today mainly just trying to defend myself. Though that could just be because I don’t have much faith in turning out reads right now, and also I’m just prone to focusing on myself in this kind of scenario anyways.

[dragonmegaXX]

Re: jTWG LXXXIV: 8 New Players and Raeko Game Thread

Who should be suspicious* typing on mobile with have the text box visible is fun.

[ShyYoshiGuy]

Re: jTWG LXXXIV: 8 New Players and Raeko Game Thread

wait, what happened to your gold stinger vote?

Why do you agree with me?

Remember, I have you on a wolf lean. I don't like driving a wagon with you on board

Everyone seems to trust you and your arguments sound good.

[MarioNintendo]

Re: jTWG LXXXIV: 8 New Players and Raeko Game Thread

Honestly wow’d with how much thought you put into that. The only thing I thought odd was that you said I seemed in the top two most suspicious people in thought one, but then in thought two you said you found the people who were town reading the hardest were the ones who should auspicious, when I’ve spent today mainly just trying to defend myself. Though that could just be because I don’t have much faith in turning out reads right now, and also I’m just prone to focusing on myself in this kind of scenario anyways.

Try to explore different scenarios, that's why I separated my thoughts into different posts. They sometimes suggest different explanations to similar phenomenons.

1) I listed you as wolf because of Shadow_God's reads on you.

2) I listed (and eventually voted) for melloncollie because she behaves in a way I think fits a wolf at this point in the game.


1) is based on evidence we're not fully sure how to interpret (maybe it's not even evidence)
2) is based on gut and pattern recognition.

Either one could be right. I'm listing everything I can in case I get killed.