Re: TWG CLXXV: Survivor Newfoundland - GAME THREAD
some of this is redundant with stuff i've already said but this will help me organize my thoughts as well
sunfan is highest townread I have at the moment, the ben flip reflects well on him, and his retraction of his offer on working together with me on the puzzle after he started reevaluating me looks really good for him
star is the second highest townread I have, and is a general town consensus read. The reason why she's lower than sunfan is that I can't exactly articulate -why- I feel she's towny --- it's just a feeling I've been getting from her in the discord. This is slightly worrisome because it might be a reflection that I've been brainwashed by groupthink, but I really don't think resolving this is a high priority task.
freezin I thought was sketchy in that he was trying to "cause shit" by encouraging others to throw away their reads and start, in order to clinch a final mislynch, but that world implicitly forced him to have the Hidden Immunity Idol, which he apparently had no idea even existed, so that world's out. He could still technically be wolf but I don't think so, I think he's entering hero mode instead --- slight town read
re: haku, I don't really understand the town reads on him. Apparently others can understand his mannerisms better than I can, but I think he's getting too much of a pass in comparison to the actual amount of investment he's put in. On top of that, like I mentioned earlier in the discord, him sharing his hack for the first reward challenge is either indicative of tremendous hubris or trying to garner brownie points with other players by seeming "pro-town" (even though enabling strangers to win a vigi shot is distinctly anti-town if you think about it). Is it like Haku to show off if he knows he's won a challenge? idk. slight wolf lean
jrodd: I initially had him as towny for him being on the tokzic wagon D0 after seeing FFA flip town. However, as we all know now, tokzic flipped town so that lynch didn't even matter. this actually reflects poorly on j-rodd, since I have a hard time believing that the entire wolf team piled on top of flashflash in a T/T lynch. It is very likely the wolf team diversified their votes on D0, and between Freezin and jrodd, jrodd is more likely to be the stinker on the tokzic wagon.
I mentioned this to somebody at some point but his aggression in the discord versus his aggression in the voice chats has been markedly different. In the discord he has been usually aggressive and pushy with his attitude and his reads. In the voice chat he's been more quiet and compliant. I know it is dangerous to make any conclusions from this, because people on average behave very differently over voice versus after text. However, there is still somethign to be learned here --- namely, from looking at the difference between his opinions before and after talking to people.
As an example, before coming into the ITG voicechat, he had tunneled on me viciously. I expect to confront him over voice about it, but nothing like that really happened. He let up on me after I started talking. Which by itself is fine --- but after the call, he changed me to hard town. This reeks of a nonconfrontational and... appeasing?... attitude, which is different from how he's actually projecting himself. His bark is louder than his bite.
Alternatively, consider that at that point i had stopped being an easy target, and his reversal on me reflects an unwillingness to combat with me once he realized I would actually be a force in this game. ----wolf read
celirra: usually emotion reads are dangerous to make, but I believe in making -attitude- reads. This is shitty of me to say but it seems like Celirra has entered tilt-town since last mislynch. lack of recent activity and apparent interest, ironically, reflects well on him in my opinion. Compare this against his early game --- he called himself the Wolf Slayer and actively engaged in one-on-one conversations with other players, as if he was excited to play the game and start solving. That's nearly totally absent now, probably by virtue of the multiple mislynches and just general poor position we are in now. It's possible he might be coasting as wolf because town is cannibalizing itself, but I don't see this as likely. --slight town read
t-force: a hot topic character in this game, I think he's an easy target. This isn't a reflection of his alignment exactly, but I don't see a whole lot of people vocally defending him like you might expect wolf partners to do. maybe the wolf team has given up on him, or has been subtly steering attention away from him, but lynching him just seems like a bad idea. --- raw null
soundwave: the fact that I have no evolution on my read on him reflects poorly on his activity this game. it's not like he's totally absent, either, he's just invisible. he's done nothing of note. Him actually chiming in and doing -stuff- is a worse look than someone who has just disengaged from the game entirely. He's entering and doing shit whenever he's pinged, as if to maintain the minimum amount of engagement that he thinks "looks towny" and keeps him above water.
The other side of the coin is that, just like T-Force, nobody really seems to be defending him. Everybody has acknowledged that he's scummy. It's kind of a miracle(?) that he's still here given everything that's happened. As somebody mentioned earlier, he's a character who can't resolve himself, and it's possible that the wolves are keeping him alive as long as possible in order to get a clutch mislynch at the perfect time. This is largely me being paranoid about him still being alive --- if we judge by his actions and general presence, he's still scummy. ---scum read
I'm tired of typing at the moment but the punchline on the other ppl is knights is a null read (not due to lack of information, but due to conflicting signals) and WV, who probably deserves his own post because he's probably the most important person to speculate about this phase
some of this is redundant with stuff i've already said but this will help me organize my thoughts as well
sunfan is highest townread I have at the moment, the ben flip reflects well on him, and his retraction of his offer on working together with me on the puzzle after he started reevaluating me looks really good for him
star is the second highest townread I have, and is a general town consensus read. The reason why she's lower than sunfan is that I can't exactly articulate -why- I feel she's towny --- it's just a feeling I've been getting from her in the discord. This is slightly worrisome because it might be a reflection that I've been brainwashed by groupthink, but I really don't think resolving this is a high priority task.
freezin I thought was sketchy in that he was trying to "cause shit" by encouraging others to throw away their reads and start, in order to clinch a final mislynch, but that world implicitly forced him to have the Hidden Immunity Idol, which he apparently had no idea even existed, so that world's out. He could still technically be wolf but I don't think so, I think he's entering hero mode instead --- slight town read
re: haku, I don't really understand the town reads on him. Apparently others can understand his mannerisms better than I can, but I think he's getting too much of a pass in comparison to the actual amount of investment he's put in. On top of that, like I mentioned earlier in the discord, him sharing his hack for the first reward challenge is either indicative of tremendous hubris or trying to garner brownie points with other players by seeming "pro-town" (even though enabling strangers to win a vigi shot is distinctly anti-town if you think about it). Is it like Haku to show off if he knows he's won a challenge? idk. slight wolf lean
jrodd: I initially had him as towny for him being on the tokzic wagon D0 after seeing FFA flip town. However, as we all know now, tokzic flipped town so that lynch didn't even matter. this actually reflects poorly on j-rodd, since I have a hard time believing that the entire wolf team piled on top of flashflash in a T/T lynch. It is very likely the wolf team diversified their votes on D0, and between Freezin and jrodd, jrodd is more likely to be the stinker on the tokzic wagon.
I mentioned this to somebody at some point but his aggression in the discord versus his aggression in the voice chats has been markedly different. In the discord he has been usually aggressive and pushy with his attitude and his reads. In the voice chat he's been more quiet and compliant. I know it is dangerous to make any conclusions from this, because people on average behave very differently over voice versus after text. However, there is still somethign to be learned here --- namely, from looking at the difference between his opinions before and after talking to people.
As an example, before coming into the ITG voicechat, he had tunneled on me viciously. I expect to confront him over voice about it, but nothing like that really happened. He let up on me after I started talking. Which by itself is fine --- but after the call, he changed me to hard town. This reeks of a nonconfrontational and... appeasing?... attitude, which is different from how he's actually projecting himself. His bark is louder than his bite.
Alternatively, consider that at that point i had stopped being an easy target, and his reversal on me reflects an unwillingness to combat with me once he realized I would actually be a force in this game. ----wolf read
celirra: usually emotion reads are dangerous to make, but I believe in making -attitude- reads. This is shitty of me to say but it seems like Celirra has entered tilt-town since last mislynch. lack of recent activity and apparent interest, ironically, reflects well on him in my opinion. Compare this against his early game --- he called himself the Wolf Slayer and actively engaged in one-on-one conversations with other players, as if he was excited to play the game and start solving. That's nearly totally absent now, probably by virtue of the multiple mislynches and just general poor position we are in now. It's possible he might be coasting as wolf because town is cannibalizing itself, but I don't see this as likely. --slight town read
t-force: a hot topic character in this game, I think he's an easy target. This isn't a reflection of his alignment exactly, but I don't see a whole lot of people vocally defending him like you might expect wolf partners to do. maybe the wolf team has given up on him, or has been subtly steering attention away from him, but lynching him just seems like a bad idea. --- raw null
soundwave: the fact that I have no evolution on my read on him reflects poorly on his activity this game. it's not like he's totally absent, either, he's just invisible. he's done nothing of note. Him actually chiming in and doing -stuff- is a worse look than someone who has just disengaged from the game entirely. He's entering and doing shit whenever he's pinged, as if to maintain the minimum amount of engagement that he thinks "looks towny" and keeps him above water.
The other side of the coin is that, just like T-Force, nobody really seems to be defending him. Everybody has acknowledged that he's scummy. It's kind of a miracle(?) that he's still here given everything that's happened. As somebody mentioned earlier, he's a character who can't resolve himself, and it's possible that the wolves are keeping him alive as long as possible in order to get a clutch mislynch at the perfect time. This is largely me being paranoid about him still being alive --- if we judge by his actions and general presence, he's still scummy. ---scum read
I'm tired of typing at the moment but the punchline on the other ppl is knights is a null read (not due to lack of information, but due to conflicting signals) and WV, who probably deserves his own post because he's probably the most important person to speculate about this phase
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