TWG CLXXII - TWGood End!

[DaBackpack]

Re: TWG CLXXII - TWGood End!

To preface this: I am not above "laming" the game. I have no pride, no dignity I need to protect. Only winning.

I think Haku is the best lynch today from a purely mechanical standpoint.

Haku has claimed MVX. I don't doubt this. The only thing I DO doubt is his alignment. I see two possibilities:

1) Haku is self-aligned.
2) Haku is wolf-aligned.

Based on the interactions in this phase so far, I see exactly two worlds:

1) Haku is self-aligned and Raeko is a wolf. Since Haku is self-aligned, there are only two wolves.
2) Haku is wolf-aligned and AA is a wolf. Since Haku is wolf-aligned, there are exactly three wolves.

If we live in World 2 and we mislynch, town instaloses. If we live in World 1 and we mislynch, we get another day to live.

If we lynch Haku in World 2, we get another day to live, and we lynch AA.
If we lynch Haku in World 1, we get another day to live, and we lynch Raeko.

Instead of taking a 50/50 shot at instalosing, I'd rather take the safe road.

Everybody please check my math here. If I made a mistake, it could cost us.

[inDheart]

Re: TWG CLXXII - TWGood End!

so wait, wasn't there a point in here where we *knew* one between raeko and AA was always a wolf?

wouldn't AA have to fakeclaim as a wolf to not die?

[blindreper1179]

Re: TWG CLXXII - TWGood End!

To preface this: I am not above "laming" the game. I have no pride, no dignity I need to protect. Only winning.

I think Haku is the best lynch today from a purely mechanical standpoint.

Haku has claimed MVX. I don't doubt this. The only thing I DO doubt is his alignment. I see two possibilities:

1) Haku is self-aligned.
2) Haku is wolf-aligned.

Based on the interactions in this phase so far, I see exactly two worlds:

1) Haku is self-aligned and Raeko is a wolf. Since Haku is self-aligned, there are only two wolves.
2) Haku is wolf-aligned and AA is a wolf. Since Haku is wolf-aligned, there are exactly three wolves.

If we live in World 2 and we mislynch, town instaloses. If we live in World 1 and we mislynch, we get another day to live.

If we lynch Haku in World 2, we get another day to live, and we lynch AA.
If we lynch Haku in World 1, we get another day to live, and we lynch Raeko.

Instead of taking a 50/50 shot at instalosing, I'd rather take the safe road.

Everybody please check my math here. If I made a mistake, it could cost us.

Your math is right, but why for sure Raeko or AA in each scenario?

[mellonxcollie]

Re: TWG CLXXII - TWGood End!

To preface this: I am not above "laming" the game. I have no pride, no dignity I need to protect. Only winning.

I think Haku is the best lynch today from a purely mechanical standpoint.

Haku has claimed MVX. I don't doubt this. The only thing I DO doubt is his alignment. I see two possibilities:

1) Haku is self-aligned.
2) Haku is wolf-aligned.

Based on the interactions in this phase so far, I see exactly two worlds:

1) Haku is self-aligned and Raeko is a wolf. Since Haku is self-aligned, there are only two wolves.
2) Haku is wolf-aligned and AA is a wolf. Since Haku is wolf-aligned, there are exactly three wolves.

If we live in World 2 and we mislynch, town instaloses. If we live in World 1 and we mislynch, we get another day to live.

If we lynch Haku in World 2, we get another day to live, and we lynch AA.
If we lynch Haku in World 1, we get another day to live, and we lynch Raeko.

Instead of taking a 50/50 shot at instalosing, I'd rather take the safe road.

Everybody please check my math here. If I made a mistake, it could cost us.

This is right as far as I figured

[blindreper1179]

Re: TWG CLXXII - TWGood End!

so wait, wasn't there a point in here where we *knew* one between raeko and AA was always a wolf?

wouldn't AA have to fakeclaim as a wolf to not die?

No.

[inDheart]

Re: TWG CLXXII - TWGood End!

Your math is right, but why for sure Raeko or AA in each scenario?

if haku's self aligned then he's likely telling the truth, if he's wolf aligned then he's likely lying

[Charu]

Re: TWG CLXXII - TWGood End!

you're not paranoid this is exactly what happened, and either way it's the smartest thing to do for town.

charu and AA are trying to push a lynch on me over Haku which is objectively the wrong move. This is anti-town behaviour

Not really... going for the Haku lynch just because you don't want to get lynched yourself is pretty anti-towny though.

But hey, what do I know? I didn't just spend most of my afternoon trying to figure things out.

[AragakiAyase]

Re: TWG CLXXII - TWGood End!

so wait, wasn't there a point in here where we *knew* one between raeko and AA was always a wolf?

wouldn't AA have to fakeclaim as a wolf to not die?

No? The other wolf could have been in the VT pile and I can just claim vt

[AragakiAyase]

Re: TWG CLXXII - TWGood End!

What if haku isn't mvx lmao

[Charu]

Re: TWG CLXXII - TWGood End!

It's the safest thing we have. Lol

So vote for something that could be a dud, a good thing, or a bad thing for town.

I really don't think that's safe, but whatever.

[inDheart]

Re: TWG CLXXII - TWGood End!

because we know there would have to be 3 true VTs, and if a wolf AA claims VT it just says there's more scum in the VT pool

once he decided he wasn't talking about his role, i think he locked himself out of that route, though

[DaBackpack]

Re: TWG CLXXII - TWGood End!

Your math is right, but why for sure Raeko or AA in each scenario?

Haku and Raeko are never on the same team here. If Haku is a wolf, he lied about Raeko.

Haku claims she shot him. Raeko claims she shot Indheart. If Haku is a wolf, Raeko is town, and she is the vigi.

That means AA is not the vigi.

On the other hand, if Haku was telling the truth, then Raeko is a wolf, because she said she shot Indheart, but she lied.

[Charu]

Re: TWG CLXXII - TWGood End!

because it could end the game earlier than that if you think you can get away with it...? it's as simple as that

THIS IS IGNORING EVERYTHING WE JUST DISCUSSED FOR THE PAST 10 OR SO HOURS.

[Charu]

Re: TWG CLXXII - TWGood End!

Jesus christ, I'm about to blow a blood vessel with what I'm seeing.

[mellonxcollie]

Re: TWG CLXXII - TWGood End!

Not really... going for the Haku lynch just because you don't want to get lynched yourself is pretty anti-towny though.

But hey, what do I know? I didn't just spend most of my afternoon trying to figure things out.

I don't want to get lynched myself because then WE LOSE

going for the Haku (or AA) lynch ensures another day for town to figure things out. But there is no way for me to prove myself over AA really at this point, so it's safest for everyone else to go for Haku