Turbo XVI: The Day After Tomorrow - Game Thread

[roundbox]

Re: Turbo XVI: The Day After Tomorrow - Game Thread

We're dealing with a madman if they thought killing ck was better than killing the confirmed town.

Mechanically the odds of victory are extremely high for town but don't get complacent

it was a gamble since it could have been a doc or a backup

[roundbox]

Re: Turbo XVI: The Day After Tomorrow - Game Thread

we're in better shape than you think since we have one confirmed town living into f3, guaranteed

unless we decide to lynch me or celirra today

[FreezinIce]

Re: Turbo XVI: The Day After Tomorrow - Game Thread

Town has 2 lynches out of a pool of 3 possible suspects. A blind 42% chance of victory if the lynch was rng'd both times. While this seems low it's actually MUCH higher than it has any right to be.

If roundbox was killed instead of 2 confirmed towns and 3 suspects, we would have 5 suspects.

Giving us a 23% chance of blind victory.

But enough about raw statistics, time to stratagize.

=====

Every suspect (me, sanz, opkiller) finds themselves in a faux delimma.

We have 2 lynches.

All the human suspects know that if they kill both the other suspects town will auto win. The wolf will pretend to believe this as well.

2 confirmed towns means if we miss today, a confirmed town makes it into f3 guarenteed, where they will decide the course of the game, both suspects being mechanically forced to vote each other.

Don't fuck it up.

===

Elaborating on my thoughts on ck kill.

I used a bit of strong hyperbole in my previous post

The kill wasn't garbage but it wasn't optimal.

The easy explanation for it is the wolf knows that of he takes the roundbox kill instead of ck, she gets promoted and wins the game if she isn't lynched or killed the next night.

The obvious problem with that is it was still mechanically incorrect to kill her before roundbox. Why?
Because if you knew she was the backup there should be no incentive to kill her first.

You'll end up with the same results, except with no confirmed town like you have today (cel)

[roundbox]

Re: Turbo XVI: The Day After Tomorrow - Game Thread

we could have gone for a BALLIN strategy and lynched someone that wasn't xelnya yesterday and instead looked for his most likely partner

yeah I wouldn't get a track result because xel would have just done the kill again to cover for the partner but if we hit the partner with the lynch it's a mechanical GG

I wanted to propose it but it's always in town's interest to go for confirmed wolves

a backup for my death would have been cool though in that situation

[FreezinIce]

Re: Turbo XVI: The Day After Tomorrow - Game Thread

it was a gamble since it could have been a doc or a backup

I'm retarded and keep forgetting the setup has a possible doctor. Lol.

The kill wasnt as bad as I thought

[FreezinIce]

Re: Turbo XVI: The Day After Tomorrow - Game Thread

I think sanz is last wolf atm.

[xXOpkillerXx]

Re: Turbo XVI: The Day After Tomorrow - Game Thread

I think sanz is last wolf atm.

A wolf Freezin would vote me in this situation, right ?

[FreezinIce]

Re: Turbo XVI: The Day After Tomorrow - Game Thread

A wolf Freezin would vote me in this situation, right ?

Wolf me, like regular me, would know you get triggered by anyone being suspicious of you which makes you easy to manipulate.

So uhhh, yeah.

Wolf me totally would have voted you. Yep.

[xXOpkillerXx]

Re: Turbo XVI: The Day After Tomorrow - Game Thread

Unless you think it'd be easier to convince roundbox that I'm wolf and not you, I dont see wht else you'd thinm sanz is wolf.

So yeah I'm satisfied with this

[xXOpkillerXx]

Re: Turbo XVI: The Day After Tomorrow - Game Thread

Yeah makes sense (even though I hate to admit it xD)

[roundbox]

Re: Turbo XVI: The Day After Tomorrow - Game Thread

just don't put them shits in my pizza bruh

[roundbox]

Re: Turbo XVI: The Day After Tomorrow - Game Thread

opkiller if you're town game is 100% solved from your point of view

[xXOpkillerXx]

Re: Turbo XVI: The Day After Tomorrow - Game Thread

opkiller if you're town game is 100% solved from your point of view

Oh is it ? How do I tell between the two ? :c sorry

[Celirra]

Re: Turbo XVI: The Day After Tomorrow - Game Thread

celirra how much do you trust opkiller

I don't think op would kill ck

I think Sanz would tbh cause he likes ballsy plays and is quite the dark horse when it comes to being strategic and knowledgable

[xXOpkillerXx]

Re: Turbo XVI: The Day After Tomorrow - Game Thread

Roundbox help me help us; am I not in the same boat Freezin described ?