TWG CLXIII: Allies and Adversaries 2 - GAME THREAD

[Vendetta21]

Re: TWG CLXIII: Allies and Adversaries 2 - GAME THREAD

the only problem with lynching xiz first is isnt his claim actually verifiable

thought about this and there's a corner case where it isnt and also turns my role off for the last use of it

[j-rodd123]

Re: TWG CLXIII: Allies and Adversaries 2 - GAME THREAD

Sarcasm or not, let's run some probable outcomes here. Nothing is guaranteed, but I'll try and theorycraft a solution that fits current data.

Quick role elimination: vigi
I'm going to go ahead and assume competent enough play that the wolves sent in a kill PM both nights. 0 deaths and 1 death during the night really don't point to a vigi being in the game, but it does point to some form of guardian.

Quick role elimination: seer
I'm going to wager that we don't have a seer, since we have a greenmaster and having both would both be awkward, and give the humans a huge advantage (dependent on rng).

Based on last game's roll, we'll have equal Human PRs as wolf PRs. Last game had an interesting turnout where colour PRs were basically mirrored between teams. I don't think that's a pattern to look for so much as a basis for balancing teams.

seer/freeze - grey
vigi/sabo - red
guard/mw - green
Pink ranger/chaos - pink/(choose)

I'll take a moment here to say that, if you're a human PR and you claimed VT, fix that shit right now. We can theorycraft the hell out of this game and every piece of meaningful data closes more holes.

What bothers me a lot right now is that greenmaster, pink ranger, adept guardian is a valid human PR team, and that it fits our current situation. However, including the pink ranger and greenmaster on the same team is a bit of a dick move as it fucks the greenmaster. Why? The greenmaster has two abilities:
-set up a green alliance by proxy where any green indirectly targeted is made aware of a confirmed human
-is notified if said green is no longer green.

Now let's quickly check the pink ranger's abilities:
-paints someone's adversary pink each night (3-shot)
-is informed if they stop flipping pink
-finds out how many wolves flip pink once they've three-shot

Pink ranger + greenmaster is literally a giant clusterfuck for the humans to try and decipher if they were ever put on a team together. Each role is somewhat designed to weed out whether a chaos wolf exists, although moreso with the greenmaster. I'll just hope that tokzic isn't that cruel.

It does seem like roles have been swapped around a bit, though.

So, what are our probable wolves? Doublecross(Xel), chaos, janitor(Xiz).
What are our probably PR humans? greenmaster, adept guardian(inD)

Why? Because I'm pretty sure Tokzic did some basic checks to make sure that there weren't any clearly broken strats, and this is a fairly balanced PR split. In addition, this setup allows for a lot of colour shenanigans that the wolves can use to help them without breaking anything. This setup doesn't have MW in it, but MW would be a dick move for humans in this setup in lieu of chaos.

The one other setup I'd consider right now would be doublecross, chaos, mw, greenmaster, ag, pink ranger. That would be colour hell, though. If that were so, I'd rather take a feel good shot in the dark every day than actually try analyzing colour for any value.

So it's almost 4am, and I think what I've said makes sense. Maybe it doesn't, but I have job fair round 2 at 10am tomorrow, so I'll deal with any fallout tomorrow when I get home. I will be present for EoD.

fuck i forgot about janitor, pink ranger is a useless role then

[j-rodd123]

Re: TWG CLXIII: Allies and Adversaries 2 - GAME THREAD

oh and that too, that's way too convenient , someone was saying at the time he claimed that pink ranger was "a role wolf is least likely to claim" or something like that and i was thinking the opposite

[Vendetta21]

Re: TWG CLXIII: Allies and Adversaries 2 - GAME THREAD

or alternatively i just die, but yeah nonetheless i want pressure on him so he comes in and starts talking about his reads on sunfan and raeko more in depth

[j-rodd123]

Re: TWG CLXIII: Allies and Adversaries 2 - GAME THREAD

but i like that meno post and will switch to xiz

[j-rodd123]

Re: TWG CLXIII: Allies and Adversaries 2 - GAME THREAD

unvote

[j-rodd123]

Re: TWG CLXIII: Allies and Adversaries 2 - GAME THREAD

dunno how close to insta that is so ill just hop off but thats where my vote is in spirit

[j-rodd123]

Re: TWG CLXIII: Allies and Adversaries 2 - GAME THREAD

at least we are pretty likely to know if we lynch a wolf today because if the wolf kill is someone like V/AA then they have to be down to just one

[AragakiAyase]

Re: TWG CLXIII: Allies and Adversaries 2 - GAME THREAD

unless a town is gamethrowing lolol

[Hakulyte]

Re: TWG CLXIII: Allies and Adversaries 2 - GAME THREAD

AA, can you do a votecount? (lol)

[Hakulyte]

Re: TWG CLXIII: Allies and Adversaries 2 - GAME THREAD

I'm thinking Xiz > raeko > meno right now.

I just wonder if we're not already really close of insta.

[Hakulyte]

Re: TWG CLXIII: Allies and Adversaries 2 - GAME THREAD

Day 2 will end at 10pm EST (9pm server) on Friday, February 3rd, or when majority lynch is reached.

Oh, slightly different time for EoD.

[AragakiAyase]

Re: TWG CLXIII: Allies and Adversaries 2 - GAME THREAD

Votes from post 1014 to post 1362
Night in 8:17:40
---

• Votes -- Lynch -- Voters
• 2 -- Xiz -- Vendetta21 (26), meno_rocks123 (15)
• 1 -- mellonxcollie -- Xiz (5)
• 1 -- meno_rocks123 -- AragakiAyase (87)
• 1 -- unvote -- j-rodd123 (58)
• 3 -- not voting -- mellonxcollie (6), ShadoWolfe (60), thesunfan (59)
• 1 -- Error -- Hakulyte (29)

[AragakiAyase]

Re: TWG CLXIII: Allies and Adversaries 2 - GAME THREAD

oh I didn't fix haku's vote properly, w/e

I intend to vote xiz over meno today

[thesunfan]

Re: TWG CLXIII: Allies and Adversaries 2 - GAME THREAD

AA ally, V adv still.
Also I didn't pink anyone last night, I took sunfan's advice.

I said that I didn't really feel that it was a good idea anymore but
now that we have a greenmaster it works out so ok