Re: TWG CLIX: Form your special exclusive groups now! - Game Thread
Zenith is a difficult player to evaluate, because many of his posts are content-related, but short, which makes it difficult to evaluate them for pro- or anti-town leanings. This is complicated further by the fact that, especially in the early going, it should be difficult to distinguish a serial killer from town.
Zenith's first two days (he subbed in late-ish on the first day) are fairly standard: reasonable reads and comments, some interactions with various players, and a couple random context posts. He was suspicious of Haku at various times and liked Xel at first, although that would cool over the course of the game. He felt a little overdefensive in responses to Freezin in #688 and #691, but Zenith had been suspicious of Freezin to begin with so the sarcasm is somewhat understandable. He was fairly adamant about not lynching the new subs on the second day. He had some good observations generally toward the end of that day, and voted Juckter. Overall, there's nothing really striking about this period, and it's hard to read it in light of what we know now as obviously town or obviously SK (and if anything is more town).
This changed on the third day. In this post, I addressed my main concerns with his play here, but to reiterate.
Zenith made a series of posts where he discussed his suspicions in light of the end of D1/events of N1. His first post pertaining to me was:
The notable quote here is "after seeing Juckter flip wolf." On D1, I voted for DFR over Juckter; the Juckter wagon ended up with more votes, Juckter was lynched and flipped wolf. Given that I was particularly vocal in this game about lynching DFR, I can understand why someone would look at that and say "Prec is a wolf." After all, if I had been a wolf, it would have made sense for me to protect my teammate by promoting an alternative lynch.
But as we know, I'm not a wolf, and that wasn't what Zenith pinged me for. He twice mentioned me as anti-town or a suspect, than made this post:
Here, his anti-town read on me is clarified as an SK read, as opposed to wolf. The problem is that there's no logical way that he could have arrived at this based on his prior posts. If I'm suspicious for not voting Juckter, it doesn't make sense to paint me an SK. An SK would be as motivated as town to lynch wolves, and would do so with the same information, not knowing any other player's alignment. Had he argued that it was just a gut read, or something in my tone, that could be explained away, but his initial anti-town read was premised explicitly on that vote, and his conclusion does not make logical sense.
Now, while that's a mistake, it's not a particularly huge one. Most people probably said something that doesn't line up logically during the game. But he pushed the suspicion FOUR TIMES in rapid succession, which would suggest that it was a priority for him. It's weird that something that seemingly important would fly apart under closer scrutiny.
At the same time, he began what seems to be a pattern of avoiding answering questions. This case I've made isn't new, although I've stated it with a little extra detail this time. But he also refused to answer question from MML (see #1805), and his answer to my case was basically to dismiss it as OMGUS (#1929) without ever addressing the structural issues it brought up.
After that bizarre third day, his play improved again (which seems to correlate with not being challenged; his ugliest moments have been under duress, although that tends to be true for everyone). He was very committed to lynching Xel on the fourth day, which happened (and Xel obviously flipped wolf). He urged restraint today, which is a good thing for town regardless of his alignment. But he once again disappeared, apparently aggravated with Charu for pestering him. Zenith throughout the game has largely been proactive about making reads and sharing opinions, which is largely a townie trait. This is in fact his best defense, since his behavior could have theoretically made him a night target for the wolves. But whenever he has been challenged, he has been unwilling to address the challenges. He brushed off Freezin, he brushed off MML, he brushed me off, and although he urged restraint today, has been absent on his explanations. Because of a game that bears many town-marks, it's hard to paint him as anti-town if he simply avoids answering pressure. And that's a definitive issue, because other players, when challenged, have at least tried to clarify. Zenith hasn't.
Now, let's look to the nightkills.
N0. Gradiant, inDheart
N1. Shado, Haku
N2. Psycho, Roundbox
N3. MML
We can thus surmise that the SK attacked either Gradiant or inD on N0, Shado on N1, Psycho or Roundbox on N2, and MML on N3.
On D1, Zenith made these two posts.
For a player who had otherwise shown great attention to detail, not knowing who had been nightkilled seems a strange lapse. However, it would distance from the kill--after all, if he wasn't even aware that inD was dead, how could he have killed him? Shado is a superficially understandable choice, but it strikes me as wasteful given that the wolves would likely target Shado. However, there had been some minor suspicion by Shado
and given Zenith's reluctance to address suspicion, that might have made Shado an even more enticing target. Zenith felt roundbox was likely the SK target on N2,
the same roundbox who had said:
which again was ignored by Zenith. Somehow, he always manages to avoid answering to any challenges posed in his direction; even now, he hasn't returned for whatever end of day stuff is coming. That's stringing out the game, and that's why I think the serial killer is Zenith.
Zenith is a difficult player to evaluate, because many of his posts are content-related, but short, which makes it difficult to evaluate them for pro- or anti-town leanings. This is complicated further by the fact that, especially in the early going, it should be difficult to distinguish a serial killer from town.
Zenith's first two days (he subbed in late-ish on the first day) are fairly standard: reasonable reads and comments, some interactions with various players, and a couple random context posts. He was suspicious of Haku at various times and liked Xel at first, although that would cool over the course of the game. He felt a little overdefensive in responses to Freezin in #688 and #691, but Zenith had been suspicious of Freezin to begin with so the sarcasm is somewhat understandable. He was fairly adamant about not lynching the new subs on the second day. He had some good observations generally toward the end of that day, and voted Juckter. Overall, there's nothing really striking about this period, and it's hard to read it in light of what we know now as obviously town or obviously SK (and if anything is more town).
This changed on the third day. In this post, I addressed my main concerns with his play here, but to reiterate.
Zenith made a series of posts where he discussed his suspicions in light of the end of D1/events of N1. His first post pertaining to me was:
The notable quote here is "after seeing Juckter flip wolf." On D1, I voted for DFR over Juckter; the Juckter wagon ended up with more votes, Juckter was lynched and flipped wolf. Given that I was particularly vocal in this game about lynching DFR, I can understand why someone would look at that and say "Prec is a wolf." After all, if I had been a wolf, it would have made sense for me to protect my teammate by promoting an alternative lynch.
But as we know, I'm not a wolf, and that wasn't what Zenith pinged me for. He twice mentioned me as anti-town or a suspect, than made this post:
Here, his anti-town read on me is clarified as an SK read, as opposed to wolf. The problem is that there's no logical way that he could have arrived at this based on his prior posts. If I'm suspicious for not voting Juckter, it doesn't make sense to paint me an SK. An SK would be as motivated as town to lynch wolves, and would do so with the same information, not knowing any other player's alignment. Had he argued that it was just a gut read, or something in my tone, that could be explained away, but his initial anti-town read was premised explicitly on that vote, and his conclusion does not make logical sense.
Now, while that's a mistake, it's not a particularly huge one. Most people probably said something that doesn't line up logically during the game. But he pushed the suspicion FOUR TIMES in rapid succession, which would suggest that it was a priority for him. It's weird that something that seemingly important would fly apart under closer scrutiny.
At the same time, he began what seems to be a pattern of avoiding answering questions. This case I've made isn't new, although I've stated it with a little extra detail this time. But he also refused to answer question from MML (see #1805), and his answer to my case was basically to dismiss it as OMGUS (#1929) without ever addressing the structural issues it brought up.
After that bizarre third day, his play improved again (which seems to correlate with not being challenged; his ugliest moments have been under duress, although that tends to be true for everyone). He was very committed to lynching Xel on the fourth day, which happened (and Xel obviously flipped wolf). He urged restraint today, which is a good thing for town regardless of his alignment. But he once again disappeared, apparently aggravated with Charu for pestering him. Zenith throughout the game has largely been proactive about making reads and sharing opinions, which is largely a townie trait. This is in fact his best defense, since his behavior could have theoretically made him a night target for the wolves. But whenever he has been challenged, he has been unwilling to address the challenges. He brushed off Freezin, he brushed off MML, he brushed me off, and although he urged restraint today, has been absent on his explanations. Because of a game that bears many town-marks, it's hard to paint him as anti-town if he simply avoids answering pressure. And that's a definitive issue, because other players, when challenged, have at least tried to clarify. Zenith hasn't.
Now, let's look to the nightkills.
N0. Gradiant, inDheart
N1. Shado, Haku
N2. Psycho, Roundbox
N3. MML
We can thus surmise that the SK attacked either Gradiant or inD on N0, Shado on N1, Psycho or Roundbox on N2, and MML on N3.
On D1, Zenith made these two posts.
For a player who had otherwise shown great attention to detail, not knowing who had been nightkilled seems a strange lapse. However, it would distance from the kill--after all, if he wasn't even aware that inD was dead, how could he have killed him? Shado is a superficially understandable choice, but it strikes me as wasteful given that the wolves would likely target Shado. However, there had been some minor suspicion by Shado
and given Zenith's reluctance to address suspicion, that might have made Shado an even more enticing target. Zenith felt roundbox was likely the SK target on N2,
the same roundbox who had said:
which again was ignored by Zenith. Somehow, he always manages to avoid answering to any challenges posed in his direction; even now, he hasn't returned for whatever end of day stuff is coming. That's stringing out the game, and that's why I think the serial killer is Zenith.
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