TWG CLIX: Form your special exclusive groups now! - Game Thread

[Charu]

Re: TWG CLIX: Form your special exclusive groups now! - Game Thread

Charu I don't necessarily follow but whatever tickles your tendies in such a curious manner go for it I guess

The fact you're fighting back is the thing.

[Charu]

Re: TWG CLIX: Form your special exclusive groups now! - Game Thread

Not just defending but, fighting

You're not that much of a fighter in pushes I've come to learn unless someone asks you nicely. The only times I see you fight is if either.

1: Someone asks

2: You see something really damning for the other person AND you're not anti-town

[AragakiAyase]

Re: TWG CLIX: Form your special exclusive groups now! - Game Thread

thesunfan will be handling phase end.

[Charu]

Re: TWG CLIX: Form your special exclusive groups now! - Game Thread

Never really do it, even if you're being grilled as hard as possible. You just shrug it off, defend with posts, and keep doing that until people are finally happy.

[_Zenith_]

Re: TWG CLIX: Form your special exclusive groups now! - Game Thread

General thoughts on the night:

There are several scenarios accounting for the missing kill. Technically, the wolves could have purposely withheld a kill, in an attempt to frame Shado (fewer than three kills might call into question whether or not he represented an actual third killing power). However, this is unlikely given that Shado announced at EoD that he was targeting Haku (as Haku is now shown to be a wolf, they would have known Haku's death would further cement Shado's claim, meaning any false claimant to Vig/Vengeful would probably be lynched first).

Given the above, it would be imprudent for the wolves not to act. We also know that Shado was killed (which does at last fully confirm him obviously), which was most likely a wolf action (eliminating confirmed town is more valuable to them than to the SK, who doesn't have a team/special knowledge, although two confirmed/pseudo-confirmed town would pose a serious threat to any anti-town faction in the endgame).

It's thus very possible that Shado was doubled, which makes more sense the more I think about it. Although the SK might have bet on the wolves targeting Shado, all remaining scenarios require a failed kill. An attempt on Charu seems unlikely, as such an attempt would be expected to fail ahead of time. The only other block possibility is 1-shot protection of the SK, which both assumes a 1-shot bulletproof SK, and assumes the wolves targeted that player. This seems unlikely as targeting a player other than Shado would be foolhardy for them; since they would have known Shado was not a wolf, they would have likely suspected he was telling the truth (or was possibly the SK). There was no one other than Charu that the SK could have targeted with expectation of failure, so it's unlikely that player was blocked.

And now back to what matters.

First section is literally bullshit. Shadow died, you even state so. Why do you even have the first sentence in this post say what it does and why the hell do you word “Frame Shadow” in such a way that you are basing a hypothetical situation as a truth? How can a frame happen on a dead PR? This screams you aren’t town in more ways than one. Firstly, town is definitely going to keep track of who dies because it is information that can be used to stem into further threads of suspicion; in the case a player suddenly finds himself at all nulls or doesn’t know where to continue off from, knowing exactly what the kills were is one of the best starting points. You clearly demonstrate that this isn’t the case.

You then completely contradict this hypothetical and finally notice that Shadow has died, disproving anything you were trying to make a point of in the first paragraph of this post.

My point is simply this: Town is never going to hypothesize a death in the manner you do here. Your post here shows that you’re digging for tinfoil/trying to show you’ve done work to live when this isn’t the case when you start to dig deeper in your posts (like I am now doing). Speaking further of the “missing nightkill” shouldn’t even be happening after a first realization post like I did because unless you already have the knowledge of what happened (and at that case you can simply stage a reaction based from other player reactions), it’ll always be a hypothetical dead end since there is no fact to it.

Ending this now because I need to be right back, but this is a good point to start off on why I’m voting you right now.

[Charu]

Re: TWG CLIX: Form your special exclusive groups now! - Game Thread

*Waves to thesunfan*

[Charu]

Re: TWG CLIX: Form your special exclusive groups now! - Game Thread

. . . That's it?

[danceflashrevo]

Re: TWG CLIX: Form your special exclusive groups now! - Game Thread

Ending this now because I need to be right back, but this is a good point to start off on why I’m voting you right now.

theoretically no OpieOP

[Charu]

Re: TWG CLIX: Form your special exclusive groups now! - Game Thread

Like, I appreciate this scenario, I do, but erm...

What's the word, what's that word...

*Ahem*



Unnecessary...

Yeah, that's the word!

The scenario you presented just sounds way too convoluted to even be a possibility. What you're suggesting is he read how all the actions were going to be performed, withheld the kill and is calling a stack on shadowolfe.

That IS what you're saying, are you not?

[Precarious]

Re: TWG CLIX: Form your special exclusive groups now! - Game Thread

Continuing reads. The last few people will be up next, followed by vote analysis of the first two days (no one's actually looked at both days together yet, afaik, so it'll be interesting to see what turns up).

***

Charu: Un-CCed Bodyguard claim. Town.

I'll elaborate on this one last time. Put simply, if there is an actual bodyguard/asceticizer out there who hasn't claimed, now's the time. Having said that, it's not going to happen. If it did, either anti-town Charu or anti-town CCer would lose. There's no way around that at this point. No one can CC falsely without losing the game either today or tomorrow. And a real CC would doom Charu either today or tomorrow, which is why he never would have made this as an anti-town gambit in the first place. He's town.

psychoangel691: Replaced DBP, which led to some consternation all around, since DBP was being looked at suspiciously at the time. On iso, I mostly like the reads I'm seeing: they align pretty well with both what we know now and what I'm feeling, and it seems to be done through a mix of instinct and reasoning. The posts are pretty straightforward, so there's not a lot to parse, but the pushes on both Juckter and Haku yesterday would be pretty daring from a wolf. Irritated tone when pushed by MML and Xel today; that reads neutral to me.

If psycho isn't town, then she's more likely to be SK than a wolf. A lot of the suspicion of psycho goes back to DBP, but it's hard to definitively read psycho because her posts are to the point: they say what they mean to say and nothing else. But I read more town than SK here for now.

Precarious: Town. The people's champion.

roundbox: Before I even iso, I'll say I'm left a little leery by how much his game has changed from Day 0 EoD. Roundbox won me to his side with his excellent end of D0, where he was very active, was making reads, and kind of saw the game the way I do in a philosophical sense. The problem is, he's been much more inactive since. People kind of busted on his "follow the vote" approach, but while I don't really have a problem with following the vote, he never really did anything with it. He looks better on iso than I expected, though, because even though his posts have become somewhat clipped, they're at least making assertions (well, the game-related ones are). I'm not sure if they're good assertions, but the activity isn't quite as bad as I had expected. I'd still like to see actual reads here, because I feel like he's been sort of coasting. I still read town, but I'm drifting in the direction of null.

***

Bonus observation: #1575 looks hilarious in hindsight.

[Precarious]

Re: TWG CLIX: Form your special exclusive groups now! - Game Thread

For now I'll say I think it was Precarious who went full-on OMGUS with the whole "Zenith is my best SK read" when I had said at the start of the phase that he was a very good one for me.

This doesn't help his case in any way, it'd help solidify mine. Take that as you will Precarious.

I take it as you not refuting my case. Feel free to do so anytime.

[_Zenith_]

Re: TWG CLIX: Form your special exclusive groups now! - Game Thread

Like, I appreciate this scenario, I do, but erm...

What's the word, what's that word...

*Ahem*



Unnecessary...

Yeah, that's the word!

The scenario you presented just sounds way too convoluted to even be a possibility. What you're suggesting is he read how all the actions were going to be performed, withheld the kill and is calling a stack on shadowolfe.

That IS what you're saying, are you not?

Look closer. The first section of his post is entirely unnecessary. It almost feels forced because in the way I'm thinking he's the SK, he would know who died and wouldn't have to either force this situation in that post or he'd try to make it look like he did something to avoid flak from others.

Even so, the fact his suspicion started with OMGUS is terrible. His case almost becomes filler and assumption at that point.

[Charu]

Re: TWG CLIX: Form your special exclusive groups now! - Game Thread

But he said in that very same post that it's a possibility shadow was stacked.

...I have idea where you're getting that he didn't know he died.

He was suggesting scenarios that the WOLVES were plotting.

[Charu]

Re: TWG CLIX: Form your special exclusive groups now! - Game Thread

So, tell me Zenith, if he was the SK, why would he say that... and then kill shadowolfe himself, because that's what you're saying with...

...I'm thinking he's the SK...

...This statement

[Charu]

Re: TWG CLIX: Form your special exclusive groups now! - Game Thread

...Or maybe I'm reading your post wrong, let me read it a fourth time, lol