TWG CXXXIII: Gotta Lynch 'em All! GAME THREAD ROUND 2 CAUSE YOU ASSES

[j-rodd123]

Re: TWG 133 Gotta Lynch 'em All! GAME THREAD ROUND 2 CAUSE YOU ASSES

Votes from post 785 to post 1226
Night in 3:27:20
---

• Votes -- Lynch -- Voters
• 5 -- reuben_tate -- Jtehanonymous (14), thesunfan (43), storn42 (39), Funnygurl555 (14), Cold Kitten (15)
• 2 -- Jtehanonymous -- Jub3r7 (11), MrPopadopalis25 (32)
• 1 -- Funnygurl555 -- choof (35)
• 1 -- MrPopadopalis25 -- Vendetta21 (88)
• 2 -- unvote -- Red Blaster (61), roundbox (47)
• 2 -- not voting -- psychoangel691 (31), reuben_tate (3)

[roundbox]

Re: TWG 133 Gotta Lynch 'em All! GAME THREAD ROUND 2 CAUSE YOU ASSES

This tate wagon is very strange to me, and I'm surprised it has 5 votes. Also, big and probably stupid post coming up.

[roundbox]

Re: TWG 133 Gotta Lynch 'em All! GAME THREAD ROUND 2 CAUSE YOU ASSES

I am going to be tracking the WHOLE voting situation for suspicions on both DBP and CK. Huge post incoming.

I think this is my first game with Cold Kitten so I don't have too much to go off of in terms of meta, but my gut is telling me she's scummy. Most of her posts are shooting the shit and are kind of reminiscent of funny's posts last game. Also, and I know that this isn't alignment indicative necessarily because I do it both in and out of TWG too and I'm gonna get flak for saying it, but going back to elaborate on her point about curry strikes me as scum doing impression management, rereading your analysis to make sure that everything checks out and that nothing could be misconstrued.

Storn is also joking around a lot which makes me think he's scummy too. He gave that analysis post which sunfan said wolves probably wouldn't do, but I'm thinking the opposite: goof around, give a few paragraphs of analysis, then go back to the goofs. It's still early, but for now I'm leaning scum.

Dap is...well, let's see if he posts again before EOD. Sucks if he rolled wolf again, lol

This is Plop's first reads post. His best scum reads are CK and Storn, with a lol at DBP possibly being a wolf again since his wolf meta is to let the thread kill him. I should also mention he was the first to townread me. Selfish, I know, but that's nice. This post shows that his strongest scum read is CK, so his expected behavior would be to stick with CK according to this reads list. Let's see how this plays out.

I'd vote for dap but lynching an inactive isn't the best idea this phase, so let's go with CK.

A vote for CK, but mentions DBP. I guess the list wasn't in possible scum order as you skipped storn? Moving on.

first and foremost

dabackpack can probably die today
dabackpack


this was seriously the only wolf read you had? feels like a cop-out

everyone else is pretty null but I'd put slight greens on sunfan and curry, slight red on ck

Choof, townread at this point, places his vote on DBP because of a meta-read, but also shares that CK is scummy as well. The wolf read is in reference to the reads list CK just posted.

i'm cool with a backpack lynch. i believe someone mentioned before this was how he played woof as well. the lynch on jub right now is so much because we dont know him. incase anyone hasn't noticed. jub + C&R are the two we want to lynch. i think its because their outsiders. not that we dont welcome them, but that we dont know them, and they dont know us.

4 minutes after the vote, without his reads list that he was promising, storn was willing to follow choof with his vote on DBP.

voting for someone that has prior votes, with next to no independent reasoning

Also, this would be pretty ironic if storn was sheeping choof based on this context.

I'd rather we hold off on dap until next phase and go for a more information-giving flip this round.

Because as it stands everybody scum and town alike can go "yeah alright dap let's do that" and get away with it, and all of the posts about him thus far have been justified null or scumreads.

Condensed into one quote, but plop brings up a good point that DBP is an easy jump for targets of all alignments because it's wolf as fuck to do. This is a fair call.

it could also come from a wolf trying to save a partner
but hmm I don't think you'd be the kinda wolf to do that

idk

who would you rather see dead today?

Choof questions plop's motives for saying a DBP lynch isn't particularly useful, but instantly shrugs off the possibility of the bus. As V pointed out, a bus wasn't necessarily a bad thing.

well if he is a hit here is what we get:
1) list of people who voted on him: woofs are less likely to vote on a woof, but you can always bus.
2) If if he is a woof PR, we will know his role, 1 less woof PR
3) we know the last vote isn't a woof. not applicable if takedown

let me also point out that the woofs probably dont know eachothers roles yet they have to wait until night to talk and unless their given who eachother's roles are they simpley wont know.

if myslinch
1) there will be a few wolves on the vote list. its obvious, but you know, it may help
2) easy to get people to vote for him so a woof might start the chain
3) not much.

either way
1) no sane PR will be the last vote. accidentally losing a pr is really bad, and if there is the possibility of him being the takedown it would be silly to lose a pr to him.

all in all its better if someone can conceivable say he is a woof. if there is enough doubt or we can find a better lynch it would be a good idea.

storn reasons with plop as to why a DBP lynch wouldn't be so bad. Much like choof, he quickly says busing is probably not going to happen (at least it's implied here). PRs are good to hit, but ALL wolf kills are useful. This is strange to me. However, there is a bit of town-ness in the post in regards to how the takedown wolf would operate, but I think this is the first instance of the takedown being brought up in the current vote. I brought up the takedown beforehand, but it was a "whole game" idea as opposed to "this vote right now" idea. Also peculiar.

Yeah, I bus to the break of dawn, baby.

As of right now, cold kitten or storn. I don't agree with the jub jub or roundbox scumreads but I'd be okay with one of them going too.

Plop still has a commitment to his reads list, and his CK vote. Brings back in storn after being skimmed over earlier. Also, this is an interesting defense. Scum flavored, maybe?

I'd probably be okay with a ck lynch
probably

Choof says he might switch his vote.

Don't gotta be dead set on anything just yet, we've still got more than a day left.

Plop is open to options, which is somewhat interesting since this sounds like he might waver from his CK lynch, and was also saying that choof doesn't need to be hasty in agreeing with plop on the CK lynch so soon. This feels town-sided to me, but I could be wrong. It's safe to doubt your vote on D0, so this could be a null point.

but isn't this the same as backpack. not posting at all... well i guess he's actually posted things, but still.

Storn questions sunfan's vote on ben. REALLY wants to see people voting for DBP. Well, until:

jub

Jub says that he'd shoot Red Blaster. This could easily be construed as opportunistic as it was the most convincing wagon with the most votes at the moment (Charu and myself were the voters, other wagons at the time were on RB, one of them a joke vote from). Scummy.

i think most of those were shit votes. i know mine was and im pretty sure the first was as well. high vote count means almost nothing without something backing it. hell, my last game i was put at L-1 on D0 because of shit voting. red is most likely to be myslynched anywyas :P

Storn talking about the RB wagon. Kind of funny pondering his recent swap.

DBP

Red Blaster jumps on the DBP train. This is the second position vote, with choof being first. This will change later as choof moves to vote. This is important because this remains on DBP until the end.

cold kitten

Choof's move to CK. Later posts evidence why.

we'll lynch dbp tomorrow when he posts three times after day start and promptly goes utr without realizing that he's still logged in

Choof more or less agreeing with what plop said.

btw, i never did that reads list. might as well

Thesunfan - Null - not really got much from him. he hasn't said anything really important other than "this guy is woof" "this guy is town" without explanation. i feel like i should be saying he's a woof but im not sure and he already knows im town so i guess that mean i need to say he's null. (charu does it work like that too or only the other way around)

roundbox - slight slight woof - similar to sun. he hasn't done much besides put in minor inputs and ask for explainations.

Red Blaster - null - he's been around much but hasn't posted anything significant due to IRL stuff. says he'll get serious today. we'll have to wiat.

MrPopadopalis25 - slight town - hey look its the first person on the list to actual have some good imput.

Lightknight924 - WANTED: $100,000 reward for whoever brings him in alive. seriously. where the fuck is he.

storn42 - best woof 2015

Cold Kitten - slight slight woof - CK hasn't really posted much of good information. besides poking things with a stick here and there. im not sure i can say full woof of this, but

DaBackpack - again, another MIA. people say this is his woof game so i'll be more willing to put him as scum than other MIA

Jub3r7 - slight woof - he's said some interesting things so far, such as how his goal is to prove that he's town. he's new to FFR so i wont put him all the way at woof.

reuben_tate - null - WHERE ARE THE POKEMON AVATARS. he's atleast put in his own input

Psychoangel961 - null - MIA

Funnygurl555 - slight woof - FG has avoided putting anything of much use in this thread and is quite busy. this doe seem like normal FG though, so im not sure. haven't played against her woof before.

Jteh - null - MIA

Curry and rice - somewhere between null and slight slight woof - idk where i want to put him, but he's had a few slip ups and he's new to the site so i wont put him far below, but i think he is still scummier than null.

MOTHER EFFING CHARU - slight town - snivies are green, charu is green. i just wanted him as green to say that. he's more of a null since he is a tricky fellow, but he's a snivy. people say his woof game is amazing. so i wont put anything past him

Choof - 100% town - choof is playing the game as quite the town. good job. have a cookie. he's made some good posts and looks like he wants to honestly help the town.

This seems safe as fuck. All of the reads are what the established consensus at the point was, and nothing here stands out as being particularly risky. Nothing here strikes fully independent thought, and this list also comes conveniently on the last day. Not to mention, back to the sheeping point that his evidence on DBP is completely what other people think.

vote for ck

Also, this debacle with psycho. Her vote lasts on CK to the end. Storn quickly activates his wolf detector on psycho for the quick vote.

not liking this quick jump to vote for ck. its like you'll do whatever choof says you will. i mean, i guess choof is really towny so i guess it makes sense. but idk, the quick jump to vote for ck just cus someone told you...

Underlined for storn's hypocrisy as to voting patterns. Psycho's vote was a little more openly following choof.

yea, if this is true i'd be down with a dbp lynch for any inactives.

Immediately goes on to say this as well. Following up on choof saying DBP might be an okay lynch after all.

I wonder if dbp is the Take Down wolf.

This bombshell. I already talked about this, but this is a 50/50 for me.

really good point, what do you think we could gather about wolves based on vote count on the take down wolf?

I posted about this earlier. Not as in detailed as I go into later, but still, come on.

woofs will want to vote early on, if they want to bus. the question is do they know what roles their partners are? we will also need to choose who wants to take the blow if he is the TD

Strategy dropping. Also, what the hell is this last line about choosing the blow? Was this also him reacting to a possible scum ping from plop? Either way, this sounds independently scummy as fuck.

Wolves wouldn't be the insta'ing vote so there'd be more incentive to avoid the wagon or to townread dap the closer that EOD nears. I don't think there'd be more incentive to bus than usual because the tradeoff of a wolf for a random townie, PR or otherwise, doesn't seem to be worth it, especially this early...although maybe if dap is the take down then his partners would assume he's a lost cause and wouldn't care if the tradeoff happens now.

So basically if the wolves are gonna bus then they'd do it when the wagon is gaining momentum and would avoid it near the insta or phase end.

Kind of strange. I don't think anyone that would townread DBP would be accepted as human at this point in the game. Very risky move with the amount of evidence. The "lost cause" bit is also an interesting comment.

Though I'm probably giving too much credit to rationality and foresight in terms of how wagons form and proliferate in my thinking. A lot of times shit just sorta happens. The only certain is that a wolf wouldn't insta.

This is slightly redeeming as it is a good observation. It is something that storn said earlier, just not very clear in his wording.

wrong. if the woofs REALLY want to bus and dpb becomes that lost cause and he ISN'T the takedown. the real TD would know and could insta. IF the TD wants to insta.

Here's the clarity.

dbp im fine with lynching him, unless you guys have someone else in mind. i know i heard Round mentioned by choof and i dont think i have a problem killing him either.

This is the vote that stays until the very end. This would fall within storns "if wolves want to bus, they will vote early" idea.

What about Cold Kitten?

Plop trying to sway a vote over to CK now that he has choof on board. I think storns response is more interesting than this question.

i think i'd be down with a CK lynch. choof pointed out something earlier that really makes CK kinda weird. that being his reads list. its very much "this guys is kinda woof for some reason" and i think it might be a very informational lynch.

Still hearkening on choof's plays at the moment. Safe to be nuzzled gently under the wing of a townread player.

In a moment of self-hypocrisy, I realized I posted my reads list late into the phase as I just earlier criticized storn for. Oops.

I'm most likely not going to be around for EOD (still waiting for word as to when I'm leaving) so I'll have to make my vote final soon. Gonna be either CK or dap.

Wagons at this point: CK 3, DBP 2. Confidence about CK vote seems to waver for whatever reason.

I'm getting cold feet on cold kitten a bit thanks to Charu's post about her similar play in a previous game though. In trying to weigh between the two, CK is "might be a wolf, flip will give information," while dap is "likely to be a wolf, flip won't give information."

I don't feel good about the current top three wagons being semi or full inactives.

Defense for wolf partners? Actual disappointment with inactives? It might be too early for plop to see DBP's inactivity as being a full scumtell, and is wondering about the CK lynch also due to a meta-read. Still wants either of them dead, however.

i think plop not wanting to lynch dbp could be him protecting his woof partner. i dont remember who started the dbp wagon orriginally (to lazy to make sure it wasn't plop lol) but i would be they are town. you know.. all assuming dbp turns out woof. i think i'd rather lynch a woof and get some good info than lynch a possible town and get good info

Choof is the answer he's looking for. Plop made mention of dbp being red, but choof was the instigator. Storn is convinced at this point that DBP is FOR SURE A WOLF, and that CK is definitely NOT A WOLF. This is what I'm getting out of this post. Does storn want to avoid getting blown up by the takedown? This is him committing to his vote for sure.

I gotta head out now. My vote is staying on CK, but I'll try to check up on my phone close to EOD in case there's a claim or something and I gotta switch. I endorse a dap lynch too, if that's the way y'all wanna go.

Last post of the phase, leaving his options open. Once again expressing doubts like he did at the beginning of this whole mess, which is strange in my eyes. Although I did mention earlier that D0 doubting might be a null point, this "cold feet" moment is hard for me to put a finger on since it's at the very end.

i still feel that dbp is a better lynch than CK

A cry for help?

inb4 someone ninja's off dbp to avoid death

A second cry for help?

rip dbp and curry

After the reveal. Red Blaster says this was scummy. storn did not move into an analysis of the votes that passed the level of counting numbers.




I'm done with typing now. Where am I at the end of this? Do I find plop more scummy, or do I find storn more scummy? We'll see how either of them react to this for my answer.

I'm not sure if this really goes anywhere, but here, take this look at the voting process from the last day phase.

[roundbox]

Re: TWG 133 Gotta Lynch 'em All! GAME THREAD ROUND 2 CAUSE YOU ASSES

I put too much work into that post that discarding it would be a waste of time, so I posted it anyway. I will say that it's not as dumb as me trying to name Red Blaster as a PR openly, though.

[thesunfan]

Re: TWG 133 Gotta Lynch 'em All! GAME THREAD ROUND 2 CAUSE YOU ASSES

dear lord we like typing this game

[roundbox]

Re: TWG 133 Gotta Lynch 'em All! GAME THREAD ROUND 2 CAUSE YOU ASSES

I forgot to mention at the end of my post that storn also goes on to follow choof's accusation of plop of being mega scummy for the events.

[roundbox]

Re: TWG 133 Gotta Lynch 'em All! GAME THREAD ROUND 2 CAUSE YOU ASSES

dear lord we like typing this game

I think you can just drop this on me.

[roundbox]

Re: TWG 133 Gotta Lynch 'em All! GAME THREAD ROUND 2 CAUSE YOU ASSES

For the record, the more I think about it, the less I like that post.

[thesunfan]

Re: TWG 133 Gotta Lynch 'em All! GAME THREAD ROUND 2 CAUSE YOU ASSES

ben wagon looks gross;
plop wagon just has v who I think is town.
plop had an initial read that I made the Charu kill; don't see the progression to where he changed his mind.
his posts have been good and I don't feel great about what I'm gonna do but
plop
<3 you though but I think you're a wolf and you're playing a good game
cya in a few hours guys

[Jtehanonymous]

Re: TWG 133 Gotta Lynch 'em All! GAME THREAD ROUND 2 CAUSE YOU ASSES

If Benguin flips town how would your read on the game change?

Should that happen, I'd immediately have to start scrutinizing those who have hopped abroad the Benguina wagon with me this phase. My reads on Sunfan, Fg, CK, and Storn would be re-evaluated. To be honest, this wagon, with the exception of maybe storn, feels fairly clean to me. I'd need to probably scrap a few of my leans I've had for most of the game.

[roundbox]

Re: TWG 133 Gotta Lynch 'em All! GAME THREAD ROUND 2 CAUSE YOU ASSES

i know this is going to sound like im tunneling on this idea but look at this list of players
cold Kitten, Charu, DaBackpac, Lightknight924 (V), reuben_tate
all of them didn't vote. well 2 of them are dead and that leaves dbp and charu dead. whats left is V, ben, and CK. lets assume CK is a VT for this experiment. that leaves V and ben. ben has been read red (lol read red, damn! why cant this be red blaster. "Red has been read red" anywas...) by a few people so for this experiments lets say thats 1 woof down. if V is a woof that is 2, but V has been pretty town right now so i'll let it slide. 2 woof votes unavailible. that means that only two woofs are around to vote. one could be on dbp and one elsewhere, or they could both be on CK.

i think that means ben is a woof then wouldn't it unless you would like to suggest that choof or red is a woof.

(i know this will sound REALLY strange and out of character from my last 50 posts but....) we dont know that Plop is a woof. i'm trying to think of all the scenarios where the woofs dont kill CK and let a woof die D0. it seems most logical that one of them would be not voting for this to happen (with the past experiment done) i'm willing to bet that ben is that woof that didn't make it happen (he's been lacking in a lot of posts. i would make sense that he's lacking on the woof side of posting as well, which would also mean that he's not helping his partners and isn't there to cast the vote they need) idk.. i feel that if ben flips red, its very likely that plop is also red.

fuck this I'm done analyzing for today
playing like shit this phase
storn

[j-rodd123]

Re: TWG 133 Gotta Lynch 'em All! GAME THREAD ROUND 2 CAUSE YOU ASSES

Votes from post 785 to post 1240
Night in 2:30:03
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• Votes -- Lynch -- Voters
• 4 -- reuben_tate -- Jtehanonymous (15), storn42 (39), Funnygurl555 (14), Cold Kitten (15)
• 2 -- MrPopadopalis25 -- Vendetta21 (88), thesunfan (45)
• 2 -- Jtehanonymous -- Jub3r7 (11), MrPopadopalis25 (35)
• 1 -- Funnygurl555 -- choof (35)
• 1 -- storn42 -- roundbox (54)
• 1 -- unvote -- Red Blaster (61)
• 2 -- not voting -- psychoangel691 (31), reuben_tate (3)

[Vendetta21]

Re: TWG 133 Gotta Lynch 'em All! GAME THREAD ROUND 2 CAUSE YOU ASSES

He was universally scum and neutral read, not just scum. I can't think of a single person who read him town. And it's with multiple experiences, notably the last game we had (132) as well as his statement here:

So how does that make you feel about my statement that it was fucking incredible that we lynched a wolf without significant counter push AND the apparent lack of wolves moving towards CK to save DBP? Doesn't this indicate something that is more significant than any toneread?

[Vendetta21]

Re: TWG 133 Gotta Lynch 'em All! GAME THREAD ROUND 2 CAUSE YOU ASSES

Also inclined to believe plop. DBP did just play his normal wolf game this game so if he were any type of wolf it's more likely he's takedown

This is objectively false.

[Vendetta21]

Re: TWG 133 Gotta Lynch 'em All! GAME THREAD ROUND 2 CAUSE YOU ASSES

Also plop you state dap was universally scumread and a neutral read, which is strange given that your intuition about him being the takedown wolf would require more than neutrally reading him in your thought process.