TWG CXXXIII: Gotta Lynch 'em All! GAME THREAD ROUND 2 CAUSE YOU ASSES

[Jub3r7]

Re: TWG 133 Gotta Lynch 'em All! GAME THREAD ROUND 2 CAUSE YOU ASSES

I said at least 70%, I'm not actually going to go through 46x20+x posts to see who else had that thought.

on a side note, roundbox is town because a wolf probably wouldn't go through a thought experiment like this about something they already know:

http://www.flashflashrevolution.com/vbz/showpost.php?p=4319372&postcount=781

[roundbox]

Re: TWG 133 Gotta Lynch 'em All! GAME THREAD ROUND 2 CAUSE YOU ASSES

As per sunfan request (and from this being unfulfilled), here's my MAGNIFYING GLASS on yesterday's vote.

Here was my anticipation for the voting pattern. I did not expect any wolf to bus with fear of take down (not knowing wolf roles) and the fact that busing on day 0 is strategically shit.

My expected wolf votes for today would be early on non-wolf targets. Based on the player pool [autocorrect on phone] size and the evidence against more than one player, I easily feel the wolf team could jump on any mislynch without anybody batting an eye.

Let me rephrase, if a wolf were to vote on their partner it would have to be early. We'd see some casual unvotes [autocorrect on phone] at eod if anyone thought they were taking a risk with last vote. Chances are wolves will play safe and aim for a mislynch and probably hop on the most convenient wagon.

Given this, let's look at the vote count total for yesterday.

Votes from post 1 to post 685
It is night
---

• Votes -- Lynch -- Voters
• 4 -- DaBackpack -- Red Blaster (39), storn42 (93), choof (116), Curry and Rice (39)
• 2 -- Red Blaster -- Funnygurl555 (24), Jub3r7 (35)
• 2 -- Cold Kitten -- MrPopadopalis25 (70), psychoangel691 (13)
• 1 -- reuben_tate -- thesunfan (41)
• 1 -- Charu -- Jtehanonymous (9)
• 1 -- psychoangel691 -- roundbox (34)
• 2 -- unvote -- Cold Kitten (33), Charu (91)
• 3 -- not voting -- DaBackpack (3), Lightknight924 (0), reuben_tate (21)

Since DBP was a wolf, according to my logic, a vote for him from a partner would be early. The earliest vote is Red Blaster. I don't think as a wolf he could have foreseen DBP being fully carried out, and I've read him as town (even a PR), so there's zero chance he's one.
Storn MAYBE is a wolf according to this logic, but he's in town territory for many people. I don't think he'd bus his partner.
Choof is pretty much town or the absolute ballin' wolf of the year. No way he's wolf though.
Curry rolled green.
Therefore, I feel like voters on DBP have ++townpoints to their reputation. I don't think any wolf would have foreseen DBP hitting L1.

The next highest vote is on Red Blaster. RB as mentioned before is likely human. His voters were:
Funnygurl - Post 85 in the thread, a reaction to the pancake knifing vid from RB. No unvote? This is suspicious to me how this lasted to the end.
Jubert - This one seems more suspicious. His reason for this vote was because Red Blaster identified a snag he was caught in. Charu called him out for this, and this earned a vote from both Charu and myself.
Scum points awarded to both candidates, as abandoning a vote as well as the classic "no u" from jubert seem shady. Jubert awarded more points.

Tied with RB is the CK wagon. Voters were:
Plop - Given that CK was scumread by choof, storn, and plop, I feel that this vote was ok. At the time it seemed like the decision was DBP or CK. Would CK have been a mislynch? I'm not entirely sure. No reputation change for plop.
Psychoangel - This is the interesting one. Her initial vote was for jubert because "I don't like jubert". Okay, I guess I can take that. But choof said "go vote ck". And what happened? Snap vote onto CK which was a follow-up from choof. She was called out for this, and response was

People throw out all kinds of random shit D0, but hey if it's that suspicious to you by all means go ahead and vote me.

I'm not zero'd in on anyone as of right now. I'm waiting for the usual EOD pickup that happens to see what comes of it.

Problem 1: The premise of people throwing random shit on D0 is wrong and overly generalized. If this was maybe pages 1-4, I would have accepted the "random shit" principle. However, this was deep into D0 and I don't feel like this is a valid excuse at all. Then this badboy comes out:

I kinda don't like Storn anymore

This wasn't quoting anything specifically, but storn was the first person to call her out on the snap vote. I'm surprised nobody has seen this as of yet.
These are the reasons I put my vote on her yesterday and why it's still on her today. I need to hear more information. This vote was convenient for wolf logic (on a hopeful wagon, and setting up a mislynch). If psycho flips red, I would argue that this town-ify's CK and might incriminate her voters.


Moving on...
reuben had a vote from sunfan. He doesn't seem to have changed from that opinion, and the vote on him today seems to match my conviction of a scumread. It's not a convenient wagon, so that's not in my boundaries. It does not seem like an obvious mislynch either, but it did come about halfway into the phase. In fact, it seems nothing more than a pressure vote for him to say more. No reputation change.

Charu's only voter was Jteh. This really confuses me tbh, but I feel like Jteh had a townslip at today's start when theorizing about the hypnotist. I feel like the wolves would have pondered those options early and Jteh would know about the possibilities. No reputation change based on this vote (even after Charu flipped blue).

Psychoangel's voter is me. Already explained above.

Non-voters with previous votes were CK and Charu. I feel like this is a nice place to lay low for wolves since it shows a sense of indecisiveness.
Charu flipped blue. Uh oh.
CK is an interesting situation. Her initial vote was on me for not saying hi, which kind of matches what was going on with funnygurl. FG left her vote on RB, however, so I feel like this adds some town lean to CK. I'm willing to put CK at null for the time being.

Non voters:
DBP - ded wolf, matched his metagame.
Lightknight - a waste of typing characters. No activity since the 26th, so this has absolutely zero impact on his role.
reuben - Looking back, I am seeing something interesting in his posts. Consider these posts about jubert:

You didn't answer the question which said you had to shoot someone, not that you could shoot someone if you wanted to.

It seems like you're trying to play things off as if you're super neutral which is understandable as a wolf since expressing non-neutral opinions makes it increasingly difficult to remain non-self-contradictory down the road.
Although I see Charu's already gotcha with somewhat of a self-contradiction x:

That phrase gave me a slight vibe as well. A town's overall mindset is not to "prove their townness" but to "hunt the wolves". Having a strong desire to prove one's supposed townliness is more indicative of a wolf (since they would be the most concerned with appearing as town as possible).

One would expect with these posts that he was leaning toward a vote on him, but we find his summative thoughts post:

-As for Jub, I'm not getting any good vibes from him right now as indicative in some of my previous posts. I want to think that I have a biased perspective due to the fact that he's not accustomed to the "style" of ffr twg. Even then however, I don't feel like a townie would respond the way jub did regardless if they were used to ffr twg or not.

After finding and agreeing on two incriminating things, he instantly gives him a pass for being new? Is he covering up a wolf partner? What is going on here? The more I think about it the more likely reuben here could be scum. He's been active on the site, so I would imagine he's viewed the thread at least once. However, he's contributed nothing. This matches my wolf logic as well. Frankly, I wouldn't mind seeing him at the end of a noose today along with psychoangel.


ok bedtime pce all

[roundbox]

Re: TWG 133 Gotta Lynch 'em All! GAME THREAD ROUND 2 CAUSE YOU ASSES

wow that post is huge

[roundbox]

Re: TWG 133 Gotta Lynch 'em All! GAME THREAD ROUND 2 CAUSE YOU ASSES

Forgot to mention Problem 2 about that psychoangel quote: she didn't come back at EOD and "see what comes of it".

[roundbox]

Re: TWG 133 Gotta Lynch 'em All! GAME THREAD ROUND 2 CAUSE YOU ASSES

In fact, it seems nothing more than a pressure vote for him to say more. No reputation change.

Also laughing at myself now for saying this. I mean, it could be masked as something else, but it's definitely a pressure vote in its context. Wouldn't be the first time I messed up today.

[Jub3r7]

Re: TWG 133 Gotta Lynch 'em All! GAME THREAD ROUND 2 CAUSE YOU ASSES

You're alive and I'm not hypnotized either. This is a strange play from the wolf team.

it's one-shot hypnosis, meaning they'll probably save it for a (slightly) more crucial moment if they haven't used it already. Also, wolves could target themselves with hypnosis to make themselves look town (not likely but possible.) Oh, I'm still rereading and I just discovered that you already talked about this.

Wolves can always fake a hypno target. It hasn't been said they can't use it on another wolf, and they can also role block it, more than likely to also ensure that it might be faked.

Hypno wolf could always not use their power and then have either themselves or another teammate fake it.

In the first post I think blind mentioned something about maybe telling the thread if someone was hypnotized but I'm not sure if that was a definite decision.

High enough level to stack the roleblock and the kill though.

you guys are beating me at EVERYTHING

Post #108 (from juber) feels really fake where he's like THIS THREAD IS ABOUT TWG LETS GO FIND SOME WOLVES YEAH GUYS

Post in question: http://www.flashflashrevolution.com/...&postcount=108
I do remember the exact thoughts behind this post, and I think you read me wrong again! The intention behind the all caps part was "I need to stop talking about my feelings and start focusing on the game."

The exact thoughts behind this post were, well...

But it's normal for you guys to not like how I post. I introduced myself on these forums a few months ago immediately after someone else, and everybody responded to the person before me and I don't exist.

I was still butt-hurt about this, and I was making myself feel bad for no reason so I decided to stop.

You guys can call me Jub rather than Jubert, if typing out number letter combinations isn't your thing.

[roundbox]

Re: TWG 133 Gotta Lynch 'em All! GAME THREAD ROUND 2 CAUSE YOU ASSES

Based on the wording, only the One Shot Hyper Beam says its ability does not recharge. It seems like the hypnosis can be used more than once based on the language. I could stand corrected, however.

[storn42]

Re: TWG 133 Gotta Lynch 'em All! GAME THREAD ROUND 2 CAUSE YOU ASSES

jub, why the fuck would wolves use hypno on themselves. its like night killing another woof. even if the woof will die later you waste the ability. they would literally just fake it. why waste an ability when you can fake it?

[storn42]

Re: TWG 133 Gotta Lynch 'em All! GAME THREAD ROUND 2 CAUSE YOU ASSES

Based on the wording, only the One Shot Hyper Beam says its ability does not recharge. It seems like the hypnosis can be used more than once based on the language. I could stand corrected, however.

"one shot hypnosis" one shot means one use.
i also feel like i was overly aggressive with the last post. im tired. anyways, off to bed.

[Jub3r7]

Re: TWG 133 Gotta Lynch 'em All! GAME THREAD ROUND 2 CAUSE YOU ASSES

"- Can we assume that One Shot Hypnosis uses their power via PM to the host?
Yes. I will notify the chosen person by pm and in thread, before every phase change CHECK PM'S FOR ROLE USES, or some crap like that."

Oh whoops, the specification comes shortly after:
"- Is the identity of the targeter or targeted of the Hypnosis revealed to any party when the power is used?
No, only the hypnosis will know who they targeted, and the target will know, that's it. They can say they were targeted the next phase. If they post while under hypnosis, it's a self kill basically."

@storn I thought that we might be notified in the thread that somebody was targeted by hypnosis, and then wolves wouldn't be able to fake it while not using it. And faking it while using it on someone else would lead to an obvious cc and give town a 50% chance to lynch correctly and possibly clear a town.

[choof]

Re: TWG 133 Gotta Lynch 'em All! GAME THREAD ROUND 2 CAUSE YOU ASSES

*farts*

[choof]

Re: TWG 133 Gotta Lynch 'em All! GAME THREAD ROUND 2 CAUSE YOU ASSES

okay that sunfan post is good
not entireky convinced that youre town but its good
unvote

k back to beddo

[psychoangel691]

Re: TWG 133 Gotta Lynch 'em All! GAME THREAD ROUND 2 CAUSE YOU ASSES

damn ck, you that mad that I put a vote on you? lol. We had company over all day yesterday and he didn't leave till like 1:30am. The night phases never used to be all that active before. Excuse me for not worrying to jump on during that time.

This wasn't quoting anything specifically, but storn was the first person to call her out on the snap vote. I'm surprised nobody has seen this as of yet.
These are the reasons I put my vote on her yesterday and why it's still on her today. I need to hear more information. This vote was convenient for wolf logic (on a hopeful wagon, and setting up a mislynch). If psycho flips red, I would argue that this town-ify's CK and might incriminate her voters.

lol really? You really think it had anything to do with being called out on the snap vote? I actually don't even remember seeing that. I remember seeing storn saying things that made it look like he knew a lot about the wolves.


I have not gone back through the interactions before the flip yet. I will say though that I'm pretty sure there's a wolf somewhere between ck and roundbox. This has happened too many times in past games where someone jumped on me as the easy target for not being active enough and they ended up being a wolf. Why be so focused on the less active right away when there's so much to go off now with the flips? It just makes no sense. Plus the only two on ck's wolfy tier are myself and benguin. Easy targets because of the lack of activity. I guess I could see it a little more had I been online all day posting around the forums yesterday, but I barely touched my computer at all.

Everyone that's played with me has seen I get more active after the initial phases, yet neither of you even wanted to wait to see what I'd do during this day phase.

[Red Blaster]

Re: TWG 133 Gotta Lynch 'em All! GAME THREAD ROUND 2 CAUSE YOU ASSES

Gotta go to work

reallysadexpandingface.gif

Psychoangel

[Red Blaster]

Re: TWG 133 Gotta Lynch 'em All! GAME THREAD ROUND 2 CAUSE YOU ASSES

o
well then.

unvote