TWG CXXXIII: Gotta Lynch 'em All! GAME THREAD ROUND 2 CAUSE YOU ASSES

[Red Blaster]

Re: TWG 133 Gotta Lynch 'em All! GAME THREAD ROUND 2 CAUSE YOU ASSES


rip me

[Jtehanonymous]

Re: TWG 133 Gotta Lynch 'em All! GAME THREAD ROUND 2 CAUSE YOU ASSES

bye

[Red Blaster]

Re: TWG 133 Gotta Lynch 'em All! GAME THREAD ROUND 2 CAUSE YOU ASSES

bye

rood

[Cold Kitten]

Re: TWG 133 Gotta Lynch 'em All! GAME THREAD ROUND 2 CAUSE YOU ASSES

it's been fun rb, enjoy the other side. also find a boat. (sun)

[Jtehanonymous]

Re: TWG 133 Gotta Lynch 'em All! GAME THREAD ROUND 2 CAUSE YOU ASSES

You conveniently brought up dbp as possibly being the takedown wolf, then backed off and went for another inactive. I understand that others of us were also hesitant regarding what to do with the inactive. Personally, this is the post I have a problem with: (I've posted this one before so bear with me >.<)

I'm getting cold feet on cold kitten a bit thanks to Charu's post about her similar play in a previous game though. In trying to weigh between the two, CK is "might be a wolf, flip will give information," while dap is "likely to be a wolf, flip won't give information."

As I first read this, I initially (and still get) the impression that you are overreaching and trying to substantiate your decision beyond necessary. This post feels contrived to me, whether it actually is or not, so that's where I'm at with you and why I feel the way I do currently. I feel like this is you feigning to *look* even more indecisive than you actually were.

I understand everything you're saying and why you made your decision/etc. This is the werewolf game and right now I don't feel comfortable about your true intentions based on what happened.

[Cold Kitten]

Re: TWG 133 Gotta Lynch 'em All! GAME THREAD ROUND 2 CAUSE YOU ASSES

hey guys, heads up. i won't be around for phase start right away. might be an hour or so until i am sry

[roundbox]

Re: TWG 133 Gotta Lynch 'em All! GAME THREAD ROUND 2 CAUSE YOU ASSES

I have a feeling I'll be hit with one of the wolf night actions tonight, and I'll either be a mute or a dead body. Personally, one would make more sense than the other.

Here's my (hopefully not) last thoughts.

Plop's situation is a trick one to dissect. There are a few scenarios to look at and consider before we instantly crucify him tomorrow. These scenarios are if A) The wolves know who their power roles are, or B) The wolves only know their partners, and not their power roles, C) Plop made a crazy guess.

Let's look at situation A. Assuming plop is a wolf, hinting that DBP might be the takedown is good for the wolves in small ways. One, it can scare off potential voters, and two, it helps in his case of setting up a mislynch (his candidate was CK). While this may sound fine and dandy, what would the purpose be of getting him outed so early to the wolves? If anything, the longer the wolves are alive the better to seek parity. Outing him like this is completely baffling and idiotic from the wolf perspective. Why make town parity that much harder? Yes, they do take out a village, but the percentage of wolf:town drops to 21.4%.
Not only that, but their chances of hitting a town PR is also statistically low. Risky and dumb move.
For these reasons, I feel the cons outweigh the pros for situation A.

Okay, how about situation B. Assuming plop is a wolf and didn't know of other wolf roles, this would be also plainly moronic to try and name it. Why would a wolf try to ping out other wolf PRs on day0? Was he trying to get a reaction from other wolves to see if they would confirm it? Was the initial call about DBP possibly being a takedown the call? DBP was sure as hell not going to with his inactivity, so maybe he was aiming for another wolf to answer? I wonder...

inb4 someone ninja's off dbp to avoid death

Does this quote mean anything? Is storn confirming he's NOT the takedown? This is an interesting thing to consider, but I wouldn't convict storn solely off of this. However, this is something to ponder in the coming phases depending on flips and cop results.
Did plop+other wolves see DBP as getting nuked for sure this phase? It's hard to tell. If I were in wolf shoes, I wouldn't risk losing a wolf in the first phase for reasons listed at the end of situation A. It just seems strange wolves would bus him so fast.
I feel like this is more probable than situation A, but I'm not saying this is what happened.

And situation C, plop just got a lucky guess. Considering the DBP wolf meta, inactivity seems to be the bread and butter. It's a shitty brand of butter, but hell, it was enough to incriminate him this game. There was a 25% chance he got the role right, but why would he select take down in particular? Yes, it comes with a death backlash, but the town objective is just to kill a wolf SOLELY based on wolf activity. Why was take down even a factor? What if DBP was roleblocker, and plop said "What if he was the roleblocker?" This just doesn't have the same effect.
At the same time, would plop really willingly put himself in a situation like this? It's a seriously clairvoyant far cry to peg not only the wolf but the role as well. This is not impossible, so shrugging off this possibility would be senseless.
This is practically on equal footing with situation B.

Due to the circumstances, a cop check honestly would not be the worst thing in the world.

I have another post about why I think red blaster is town coming up before EOD. Shitty town tactic, yes, but it's fair game.

[blindreper1179]

Re: TWG 133 Gotta Lynch 'em All! GAME THREAD ROUND 2 CAUSE YOU ASSES

You guys, ending a few minutes early, Won't be here at exactly 8, so I hope that's ok. writing up right now.

[roundbox]

Re: TWG 133 Gotta Lynch 'em All! GAME THREAD ROUND 2 CAUSE YOU ASSES

Even though this might run risk to the town, I have a few reasons to believe Red Blaster is a town PR, specifically, the Bubbler or the Hyper Beam. Why?

Please die tonight otherwise I'm going to kill you so hard tomorrow.

This post is strange. Yes, it matches aggression Red Blaster is known for, but something about this was just peculiar. I pondered about this for awhile, but this alone was not enough to convince myself that you were a PR. However, looking back at my initial impressions, I found:

UNCERTAIN TIER
Red Blaster - Some town oriented movement, and his evidence on jub helped pushed me into placing my vote along with Charu's lead. It would be great if he didn't skim over the evidence on me as I was conveniently left out of his observations post. LOTS of nulls in his post aside from that, so it's strange that he's playing it safe when he finally reveals his cards. Not a contender for lynching at the moment, IMO.

I noticed your reads seemed to be playing it safe, therefore, not drawing attention to yourself. Assuming choof and I are town, I feel like a decent amount of attention has been drawn about the two of us. This makes it a little easier for you to travel under the radar.

I weighed out the pros and cons of revealing this information, but think of it this way: your role (if it is one of the two) is expendable. Once you've used your power, it's gone. Kaputz.

...looks like Blind is ending early, so I have to cut this short.
gl hf?

[blindreper1179]

Re: TWG 133 Gotta Lynch 'em All! GAME THREAD ROUND 2 CAUSE YOU ASSES

Over the long night, the group was satisfied with the lynch despite one of their own being taken for the nasty ride. While waiting for morning, someone was taken, and murdered! How could this happen!?!?!?!?!?! While that is unknown, the victim was easily identifiable. It was a game to the killers, they wanted everyone to know who was taken! It was MOTHER EFFING CHARU! Unfortunately for him, he was the MIRROR COAT.


Day begins now, and will end on SUNDAY JUNE 1ST 8PM SERVER TIME. WITH ONLY 13 PEOPLE IT WILL TAKE 7 TO INSTA.

[Charu]

Re: TWG 133 Gotta Lynch 'em All! GAME THREAD ROUND 2 CAUSE YOU ASSES

That's precisely the scenario some have accused plop of, and I really don't understand it.

Scenario C sounds a lot more probable and not batshit insane.

Sorry, I just don't see the other two ever happening without the wolf team telling Plop to do that. I don't see Plop doing that whatsoever.

[roundbox]

Re: TWG 133 Gotta Lynch 'em All! GAME THREAD ROUND 2 CAUSE YOU ASSES

That's precisely the scenario some have accused plop of, and I really don't understand it.

Scenario C sounds a lot more probable and not batshit insane.

Sorry, I just don't see the other two ever happening without the wolf team telling Plop to do that. I don't see Plop doing that whatsoever.

ur ded m8, sorry

[blindreper1179]

Re: TWG 133 Gotta Lynch 'em All! GAME THREAD ROUND 2 CAUSE YOU ASSES

^That will be ok since I ended early with no time for everyone to know.

Please don't post another though charu.

[Red Blaster]

Re: TWG 133 Gotta Lynch 'em All! GAME THREAD ROUND 2 CAUSE YOU ASSES

Omg I figured roundbox got me killed.

[Charu]

Re: TWG 133 Gotta Lynch 'em All! GAME THREAD ROUND 2 CAUSE YOU ASSES

Wow, okay, thx.

I see how it is.



I'm out bitches.