TWG CXXIV: Super Smash Brothers

[TWG Ike]

Re: TWG CXXIV: Super Smash Brothers

I wasn't complaining about the lack of things to discuss, Zelda was.

I felt like Bowser's posts early on felt very natural. I liked them because of that. This is pretty ironic b/c the last time I saw choof play as a wolf I immediately called him out for difference in tone. Yeah it was an early read, and one that I felt less and less comfortable about until his claim. The viscosity in my read on him is apparent. For you to say that I am a partner with Bowser here through this logic is pretty simple to do, and I can do exactly the same thing with what you said about Pikachu (even though you didn't town read them, you still went against the grain of the thread in your opinion of them, which is what you're basically calling me out for.)

And yes, I called them town while they voted me. I don't care if you think I'm a wolf or not, that doesn't really influence my opinion of you. This is what players who can think beyond the first level of meta are capable of doing. Once people voted and unvoted you, you went into clear OMGUS mode. The fact that you have since tunneled on me doesn't change my read on you, and it never really factors into how I read people.

And yes if you care about the third post that you quoted then you are, in fact, making a big deal out of nothing.

Yes, Bowser was voting me "on and off" and I was still reading him town. Big deal.

[TWG Mega Man]

Re: TWG CXXIV: Super Smash Brothers

The viscosity in my read on him is apparent.

Let's talk more about viscosity in reads, shall we?

2. D2

So after claiming on D1 that he felt like Bowser was town, Ike makes a reads post, where he suddenly 180s and agrees with the votes against Bowser. This is his explanation for the change:

Bowser Their activity as well as ok posts made them townie enough for d1 in my opinion. However, they've had weak pushes, especially on me since then. I think I'm starting to see the light on them. Their lynch would also probably provide a fuckton of information. I know I'm accusing them of the high crime of having an odd tone across their great amount of activity, but I think that their reads have been very opportunistic. Would love to see pressure on them.

Bowser

Note how the last thing he said about Bowser was that his posts had a "natural feel", but over one phase decides that it's an "odd tone". In response to this, Bowser backs off of Ike and decides that Ike's not in his sights anymore. This would make sense for two wolves, as distancing is one thing, but cannibilizing is asking to lose.

In that same reads post, he says that reads me green. However, when the votes start rolling up on Bowser...

well
looking at the wagons now, neither one looks that great based on the people in it. Do not be surprised if I end up moving my vote elsewhere

I might just end up voting mega man b/c I feel like it gives the most info here. The lynch on Bowser feels less and less good, slightly because of what Mashi has said, mostly because of the apparent apathy that Bowser seems to have. I don't think he's enough of a bitch to do this as a wolf.

So now he's decided that instead of someone he's reading red, he's going to switch to someone he just finished reading green. I don't know what Mashi said, because I'm not paying attention to identities, but it's clear that a lynch on a wolf for a wolf would feel less and less good as it becomes closer to actuality.

Next, Dedede points out that it could be wolfy for me to be acting sure that I know there's a roleblocker in the game. When I explain that I am almost positive just based on the game design, there being a bunch of blues and all, this is Ike's response:

the existance of roleblocker shouldn't really matter at this point in time.
Mega Man probably raises a good point that I hadn't thought about.

This is odd because he both shoots down what I'm saying and also agrees with it. It's odd for him to shoot it down at all, because as I say in my immediate response, the existence of a roleblocker mattered a lot at that point, since Peach had already claimed Gunsmith to the thread.

Bowser attempts to discredit my incredibly valid point by passing it off as me looking for someone to roleblock. Ike entertains this dumb idea:

that's like
terrible if you're the roleblocker b/c all you're doing is softing to town that you're the roleblocker. Your team already knows you're the roleblocker.

This is not why it's terrible, though. As I pointed, the main reason that the "looking for someone to roleblock" notion is frivilous is that wolves weren't even looking for someone to roleblock. Peach's claim was right there, why the hell would wolves be looking for someone to roleblock? This entire exchange felt shifty and disingenuine.

And I think both Bowser and Ike knew it, because then a series of very strange events happens very quickly:

1) Bowser hints that he has a blue role.
2) Ike unvotes Bowser.
3) Ike pushes him to hardclaim.
4) Bowser fakeclaims Cop.

The most telling thing here is the tone. Ike is panicking!

you already claimed too hard.
My bad for starting this fucking wagon ughhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh

but yeah you should probably hard-claim it after that post

...Bowser?

dude Bowser you can't just drop the mic after that shit

anyways those opposed to a Mega Man lynch need to look at other targets b/c we're sure as hell not lynching Bowser now

This reads plainly to me like a push to get Bowser to take attention off of their strange exchange, and to get the lynch on a different path. Without stating his position on me (which we last heard was a green read), he probes the thread to see what direction it wants of the next two options: Me, or Mario?

Then he probes a little harder, still without making an actual vote:

I'm to the point where I don't think I can justify myself not voting on the Mega Man wagon. Unless I'm just terrible at this game, I don't see wolves on that wagon outside of possibly Kirby and Samus, maybe Link or Zelda. Also Mario is worthless, I agree, but his lynch is worth about as much as he is.

Maybe I'm a donk but I'm throwing my hat into the Mega Man ring probably

What the fuck is this?

Ike takes his vote off of Bowser, who he just finished reading red. He puts his vote on me, who he just finished reading green. And he justifies it with what is possibly the most ambiguous thing I've ever read in TWG: "I don't see any wolves on that wagon outside of maybe Kirby and Samus and Link and Zelda." Maybe 4/6 people in the vote are wolves, but I don't see any wolves on it, guys! Oh, and he just finished reading Zelda and Samus as green. All without making a vote.

This does not resemble a real human thought process at all.

And we're just getting started!

[TWG Mega Man]

Re: TWG CXXIV: Super Smash Brothers

That last point got really convoluted (almost as convoluted as his reasoning), but basically what I'm getting down to there is that what a real human would have done in that situation is immediately vote for Mario, who he just finished reading wolf, but instead he was desperate for a reason to vote me, who he just finished reading green.

Because I was on the scent, and he knew it.

[TWG Mega Man]

Re: TWG CXXIV: Super Smash Brothers

I technically linked to it in a quote, but here's that D2 reads list that is completely inconsistent with his D2 actions.

[TWG Mega Man]

Re: TWG CXXIV: Super Smash Brothers

This is a really lame thing to do after finishing the last post with "we're just getting started", but I'm short on time and dying to go to sleep, so this bit's going to be kind of skimpy.

3. Defending Bowser, and the Surrender

After the claim, I spent a significant amount of time attacking Bowser, and Ike spent an equal amount of time fear-mongering. As every day passed, it became more apparent that what I was saying was true, but in spite of the growing pile of evidence against him, Ike clung desperately to the vaguest hope that Bowser could be telling the truth.

He argued that a Roleblocker could feasibly favour a Gunsmith block over a Cop block. When Kirby came out, he argued that there was any chance in hell that there could be two Cops in the game. When it became clear that we were looking to lynch Bowser, he continued to try to scare humans with talk of how crazy it'd be to kill anyone who claimed Cop, even if it looked unlikely to be true.

He clung to this ridiculous notion long after humanity had accepted it as truth and moved on.

And when we shot Bowser, Ike's posting died with him.

I think that Ike is another Bowser case. I think that he invested into Bowser in an attempt to keep wolves in the game, and when the curtain came off, he knew that he was too implicated to continue playing the game.

None of his votes are in the right place. He didn't vote Pikachu, he voted Kirby over Fox until the reveal, he voted off of Bowser and onto me, and then onto Mario when it was clear that I wasn't going down without a fight.

I am almost sure he is red.

[TWG Ike]

Re: TWG CXXIV: Super Smash Brothers

as for you "being on the scent" I actually wasn't really sure where you stood exactly, if my memory serves. Maybe I just don't remember right, it was a while back. I guess that's not really too important.

Yeah my read on Bowser changed. It was not a result of not wanting to bus (meta, I don't soft or hard bus basically ever unless I'm busing Xiz b/c that's fun) or anything, it was because I had been rereading the thread trying to figure out why so many people were reading him scummy. I realized not only that my read wasn't as strong as I thought it was, it also was pretty bad. For probably the only time this game, this turned out to be a correct read of mine. You're talking as if a changing read is inherently wolfy. You should know better. Humans should reread the thread and keep an open mind. I kept mine open and I corrected a false read. It was mainly his behavior. I felt like it was getting odder and odder as the game went on, especially his weird votes on me. Once he claimed cop it all made sense to me; he was just nervous b/c he was a role, that was my thought. I've seen it happen all the time.

And yes, while you did bring up a point that there almost certainly is a roleblocker, and that point is rather sound and also almost certainly true, that shouldn't have mattered at that point since we were getting close to lynching people. Mechanics shouldn't have been the topic of discussion, the hangman's noose should've been, that was my point with that post. So what if I acknowledged you made a point I hadn't considered. That's not even contradictory. I don't even say your point is wrong or bad, I just didn't think it was relevant. Get over yourself if you think that's me slipping on a banana peel when wording a post.

And no I never entertained the idea Bowser brought up. I simply acknowledged it as terrible wolf play. That's because it is. And yes Peach's claim was right there but that wasn't relevant to my point against Bowser. It was at this point in responding to your post that I almost said that "No roleblocker would ever soft to town that they're the roleblocker" but then I remembered I've seen a game where someone was dumb enough to do that. So I guess that's not the dumbest thing I've ever heard. Still, its a terrible play, and that's all I meant by that post. The fact that you call "softing roleblocker" not a terrible play actually made me laugh, btw.

And yeah, no one should ever just softclaim a role like that because of several reasons which I might look dumb for pointing out in hindsight. The main one being that all you're letting mafia know is that you're a role, and they might vote you and attempt to play it off as not noticing the post or saying they don't believe the claim, etc. It doesn't work like that in forum TWG. In some mediums it does, but not text TWG. Also, you're just robbing town of the info of your check if you're a cop or a doctor because if you die the following night, this is ToS where there's wills; the info is just lost. And yes, you don't vote a claim there. Ever. There's a reason you were the only one voting for Bowser; its because voting a cop claim there is such a bad play that it wishes it could be a shit tier play someday.

And yes I was upset that I had gotten dAnceguy germs or something where I out roles. I had led a lynch on a claimed cop. This is different from the Falcon lynch because this is something *I* did wrong, not someone else. I felt bad. I thought I had screwed up. If anything, you should thank me b/c we probably wouldn't be in this position if I hadn't of led the lynch on him.

And we didn't get much info from the Captain Falcon lynch, so I wanted info. I incorporated wagonomics and attempted to see how was voting who and whether or not it was coming from a townie mindset. I looked at the people on both wagons and felt like Mario was getting pushed by the wolves whereas there were a lot of people I was reading at least town leaning that were voting you. No one was lock clear, and there were 4 possibles that I named in my post. I didn't think they were all together, almost certainly, which is what I meant when I called them out. I still think that there's at most 1 wolf in those names. Obviously, this makes more sense now but w/e.

Also I unvoted you in the end because of the emotion in your posts which I felt was genuine. I had no reason to do that as a wolf. Maybe if the other wagon was a wolf I get some townreads for going hero mode or something, but as a wolf I would have no reason to hop between the bandwagons there.

But yeah, bring up more things that are this easy to shoot down. I'm waiting for you to bring up a point I can't respond to. Surely there's at least one or two if I'm as confirmed of a wolf as you say I am?

[TWG Mega Man]

Re: TWG CXXIV: Super Smash Brothers

If I'm wrong about Zelda or Ike, this is how I'd sort the remaining players that I have non-zero suspicion over at this point in the game, in descending likelihood:

1. Yoshi
2. Dedede
3. Pit
4. Meta Knight
5. Link
6. Sonic
7. Mac
8. Marth

Alright, Xiz, I'm ready to die.

[TWG Ike]

Re: TWG CXXIV: Super Smash Brothers

Yes, I was wrong on Bowser. It got to the point where I just hoped that I was right because I wanted you to be wrong. Obviously, this didn't happen. Its a terrible play to lynch either cop there because we just win if there are 2 cops and if we're wrong we seriously handicap ourselves. Even knowing Bowser was a wolf I'm still going to argue that mechanically what I said is correct. I'm not going to change my opinion on this.

As for fear mongering, town should've been afraid. Lets say you're as convinced Kirby is a wolf and that Bowser is the real claim. Where would we be now, Mega Man? That's why lynching there is terrible. Honestly, we're in a good position since the shot happened so I can't say it was the worst thing that ever happened, but I still think we got lucky more than anything.

And yes, my posting "died with him." I was wrong. I argued for a mechanical play, and I was wrong. I looked like an idiot in a game which I love. I'm not gonna play the harpstrings too hard here, but yeah, I was upset with myself after it. Over it now.
Also, I was basing a lot of my stance in the game that Bowser was town. Oops.

I was in full support of a Pikachu lynch, which I stated several times throughout the day. I wanted to get more info out. Maybe we don't need it or w/e, but you can never be too sure. And yes I voted Kirby before the reveal. So did you. You didn't even unvote. And I still think you're town. Weird. As for the ridiculous notion that "You weren't going down without a fight," get over yourself. Doesn't matter how hard you fight if people still vote for you. I couldn't give a flying fuck if you planned to haunt my dreams for the rest of my life if I vote for you. Once you're dead, you're one less player I have to worry about as a wolf. But I did what I thought was right. I even tried to save you by asking Link to move his vote off of you. If Mario was a wolf, then yeah, I get cred by doing that, but he wasn't. As a wolf, I have no reason to do that.
Even for me, who hates busing, I'd LOVE LOVE LOVE to throw a vote on a dying Godfather there as a wolf. W/e, meta.

Also your case ignores the part where you actually think I made the Shulk kill. That was terrible, and basically a wasted opportunity by the wolves. While I don't think if I was a wolf I would've hit a role (A lot of my rolereads are likely just as wrong as my wolfreads have been this game), I'd sure as hell never kill Shulk there.

Look, I'm not saying I've been the most correct this game. I am saying I am town and your case on me is both a waste of time and breath. You're probably town here. You don't even need to find wolves at this point, you just need to build an auto-win circle to ride the game out on (although this part can probably be read the wrong way... you should still wolfhunt, you just need to find the number of people you think are strongly town.)

But yeah I've been really wrong but I am town here. Get off me.

[TWG Mega Man]

Re: TWG CXXIV: Super Smash Brothers

I don't know about you guys, but I read all those words, start to end, and didn't get any less confident about Ike being a red.

[TWG Ike]

Re: TWG CXXIV: Super Smash Brothers

Another point I forgot to mention:
Xiz straight up told me that there can be two cops when I was talking to him about the setup. If you think that's ridiculous, take it up with him, not me.

[TWG Ike]

Re: TWG CXXIV: Super Smash Brothers

I don't know about you guys, but I read all those words, start to end, and didn't get any less confident about Ike being a red.

*insert tunnel pic here*

[TWG Ike]

Re: TWG CXXIV: Super Smash Brothers

you really think I killed Shulk there, Mega Man?
You honestly truthfully believe I would make that kill? After my activity that night as well as my reaction to it, you think I did that?

[TWG Mega Man]

Re: TWG CXXIV: Super Smash Brothers

you really think I killed Shulk there, Mega Man?
You honestly truthfully believe I would make that kill? After my activity that night as well as my reaction to it, you think I did that?

I love that this has been your go-to counterargument for being a wolf because, the fact that I don't believe it aside, it doesn't even exclude the possibility that you're red.

You could be a red and still not been the one to send the kill.

[TWG Villager]

Re: TWG CXXIV: Super Smash Brothers

hey guys

[TWG Ike]

Re: TWG CXXIV: Super Smash Brothers

ok that's true I forgot about that you win this one.

I'd fight tooth and nail against it, but I guess your point makes sense there.