TWG CXX: Villains United

[TWG The Queen]

Re: TWG CXX: Villains United

I think they are equally suspicious. I am more sure about them than I am about anyone else at this point, but when the best lead is not a sure thing, why not make sure that there is an upside no matter what the outcome?

Do you have the expectation that every decision that you make will be right at the very beginning of Day Two? I am overwhelmingly sure of lynch decisions maybe 15% of the time, and even then, sometimes I end up being wrong.

Does acknowledging this make me a bad TWG player?

naw but using "if hook flips villa then we can clear auto" as the focal point behind ur vote is weak as hell and it looks contrived when those are also suddenly ur top 2 hero reads

[TWG The Queen]

Re: TWG CXX: Villains United

hades might be

a good lynch

[TWG Hades]

Re: TWG CXX: Villains United

And why would I be a good lynch? Because I defend my logic?

[Xiz]

Re: TWG CXX: Villains United

Clayton has been replaced with Hopper.


(Come on guys, I can't handle any more replacements ;_; )

[Xiz]

Re: TWG CXX: Villains United

Vote Count: (10 to insta)



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No Vote:

[TWG Cruella De Vil]

Re: TWG CXX: Villains United

I think they are equally suspicious. I am more sure about them than I am about anyone else at this point, but when the best lead is not a sure thing, why not make sure that there is an upside no matter what the outcome?

Do you have the expectation that every decision that you make will be right at the very beginning of Day Two? I am overwhelmingly sure of lynch decisions maybe 15% of the time, and even then, sometimes I end up being wrong.

Does acknowledging this make me a bad TWG player?

So 50% chance at two wolves is worth 1.00 wolves and a 50% chance at one wolf while clearing 1 person otherwise if they are not a wolf (out of what is most likely 16 remaining players) increases our chance of hitting wolf the next day by like 10% at best so it's worth like .66 wolves or something like that. Given your beliefs and your priors auto seems like an almost objectively better choice if you are "hedging your bet." Don't you agree?

[TWG Hopper]

Re: TWG CXX: Villains United

I signed up as a replacement, so I've been trying to keep up with this thread. My Day 1 suspicion was on Auto, because of that vote for Clayton; it felt to me like he was trying too hard to appear active and "contribute". I was going to leave it as just throwing votes around, but after the whole last minute vote on Hans, Auto really doesn't sit well with me.

I'll write more tomorrow. I'm pretty much just letting you guys know that I'm alive. Also, Shere Khan, please post more than just gifs.

[TWG Shere Khan]

Re: TWG CXX: Villains United

[TWG Hades]

Re: TWG CXX: Villains United

So 50% chance at two wolves is worth 1.00 wolves and a 50% chance at one wolf while clearing 1 person otherwise if they are not a wolf (out of what is most likely 16 remaining players) increases our chance of hitting wolf the next day by like 10% at best so it's worth like .66 wolves or something like that. Given your beliefs and your priors auto seems like an almost objectively better choice if you are "hedging your bet." Don't you agree?

I suppose that I was thinking that clearing someone on Day Two would help in the long run, but I am also 100% on board with a vote on Auto, I said so from the beginning. I don't think you know what hedging your bet means. It doesn't mean going all or nothing, it means making sure that you get something no matter what the outcome is.

[TWG Hades]

Re: TWG CXX: Villains United

Because it seems like neither Hook nor Auto will be on the chopping block today, I will change my vote to Shere Khan until he posts something useful or gets replaced.

I stand by my logic, but it is only useful if we are choosing between Hook and Auto, which doesn't seem to be happening.

[TWG Hades]

Re: TWG CXX: Villains United

naw but using "if hook flips villa then we can clear auto" as the focal point behind ur vote is weak as hell and it looks contrived when those are also suddenly ur top 2 hero reads

That is not the focal point behind my vote. The focal point of my vote was that I thought Hook and Auto both looked Heroic, and if we focus Hook we don't lose. Either we get a Hero (most likely) and then can reconsider Auto for Day Three, or if he turns Villa, we can clear Auto.

But again it looks like the vote is going elsewhere (nowhere) so I am only responding to defend myself and my logic.

I am fine with a Gaston lynch, as I already stated, and will switch my vote to him because I am not a Hero and do not want to be in a two vote KITB.

[TWG Auto]

Re: TWG CXX: Villains United

Hades, votes are not Ping-Pong balls. You can stop switching your vote every hour now.

And Shere Khan, do SOMETHING.

[TWG The Queen]

Re: TWG CXX: Villains United

hey guys, this eod will be WOAT i can feel it

[TWG The Queen]

Re: TWG CXX: Villains United

tldr; one of the wolves is probably one of you who is keeping in the discussion heavily.

fair but who do u think it is

[TWG The Queen]

Re: TWG CXX: Villains United

That is not the focal point behind my vote. The focal point of my vote was that I thought Hook and Auto both looked Heroic, and if we focus Hook we don't lose. Either we get a Hero (most likely) and then can reconsider Auto for Day Three, or if he turns Villa, we can clear Auto.

do u really think lynching hook would "most likely" produce a hero flip, do u honestly believe that? the odds on a random lynch arent all that high so if u really thought its at over 50% i dont think u would be hedging ur bet