TWG CI: Fiction's Birthday Party

[Xiz]

Re: TWG CI: Fiction's Birthday Party

The question is fine, actually doing it would be a problem.

^ This. Don't do it Charu

[dAnceguy117]

Re: TWG CI: Fiction's Birthday Party

hello diary, IM AT IT AGAIN!!!

We need to reassess everything from here. Re-set your thought process and work out confirmed people again from scratch and why you feel they are confirmed. Do the same thing for wolves. Tunnel vision will kill us if we let it.

this is awesome. I don't even care if you're a wolf, I really think I/we needed this.

so I was thinking. j-rodd, it's cool that we were looking for wolves based on tactics we expect all wolves to use. on mafiascum or wherever that's probably pretty effective. but here I think the styles between players clash a lot.

to me, there are too many question marks remaining for us to play super sleuth and flawlessly put every piece correctly into place. instead of playing detective, I think we should play the numbers game, at least for one phase.

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townies, here's my suggestion. come up with two pairings where you believe STRONGLY that the two players in question are NOT both wolves. set aside those 4, and lynch from the remaining pool.

here's why. we have 9 players remaining. j-rodd and I are confirmed town, so that leaves a lynch pool of 7. with each pair as described above, if the link you drew is correct, that pair has either 0 or 1 wolves.

worst case: your links are wrong, one pair has 2 wolves, you're probably done for. if you have that much bad data then it probably would've been gg anyway.

bleh case: your links are correct. each pair has exactly 1 wolf. 33% chance to hit a wolf out of the remaining pool. still, if you correctly clear one of the remaining 3, odds are then 50% if you coinflip for the final 2 haha.

best case: your links are correct, and at least one of the pairs you created has 0 wolves. lynching from the remaining pool gives you 66% or maybe even 100% chance to hit if you lynch randomly from the remaining 3. that's pretty cool.

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play the odds, we're up all night to get lucky, get one red flip, and play from there. we're playing solitaire at this point; there's a lot of shit under the surface that we can't see, but we can still set ourselves up to have the best possible chance of winning.

[dAnceguy117]

Re: TWG CI: Fiction's Birthday Party

if I were to pick two of these "mutually exclusive" pairs right now, I would probably go with

V/Manti are not both wolves
melloncollie/jayde are not both wolves

but you decide that for yourselves.

[dAnceguy117]

Re: TWG CI: Fiction's Birthday Party

also, feel free to not do that if you don't think it's smart. it just sounds p cool to me. PCE

[dAnceguy117]

Re: TWG CI: Fiction's Birthday Party

sorry for the post spew. final thoughts. disregard my big "play the odds" post. work on reads/associations and find a wolf. get a red flip, do more research with the new info, keep going. play the game and win.

[j-rodd123]

Re: TWG CI: Fiction's Birthday Party

crazyjayde pretty much always a wolf here

[j-rodd123]

Re: TWG CI: Fiction's Birthday Party

crazyjayde/V w/w locking it in

[dAnceguy117]

Re: TWG CI: Fiction's Birthday Party

lmao I was gonna make that post in about 7 hours

[j-rodd123]

Re: TWG CI: Fiction's Birthday Party

we shoulda made it 17 hours ago

[j-rodd123]

Re: TWG CI: Fiction's Birthday Party

dont lynch outside of jayde/V tomorrow plz. Third might be melloncollie?? That was my sub theory, but i already went against that when I said yoman was human for subbing out and I murdered tps in cold blood (rip ). Also the whole V using that as a reason to push tps but ignoring melloncollie/netjet who I found wolfier at the time.

Next game im not gonna be such a flake

or just random.org all my decisions, both are for the best

[dAnceguy117]

Re: TWG CI: Fiction's Birthday Party

careful with calling 3 wolves in thread. if you get 2 right and 1 wrong then you're gonna miss the block.

if jayde/V is right then third wolf is tricky imo.

[dAnceguy117]

Re: TWG CI: Fiction's Birthday Party

is clearing James the right move?

[j-rodd123]

Re: TWG CI: Fiction's Birthday Party

yes

[DarkManticoreX2]

Re: TWG CI: Fiction's Birthday Party

Honestly I think lynching from the Charu/James/Melon/Svaz pool should be held as late a possible. I'd be very suprised to find all three wolves in there, and pretty suprised to find two. Frankly I want to clear Charu outright.

I'm really at Jayde/V/(james/Svaz--??Melon??)

[Vendetta21]

Re: TWG CI: Fiction's Birthday Party

jrodd why did you clear james again