The FFR Credit Gambling Thread - Whine & Gloat HERE!

[TheRapingDragon]

Re: The FFR Credit Gambling Thread - Whine & Gloat HERE!

Rubix - Try quitting.

[MrRubix]

Re: The FFR Credit Gambling Thread - Whine & Gloat HERE!

I want my freaking 3.5 mil back. There's no reason why I should have lost so much -- even with a 2% cut, that's just a godawful streak.

If I don't get my 3.5 mil back, I am leaving this site for good. This pisses me off more than you think.

[TheRapingDragon]

Re: The FFR Credit Gambling Thread - Whine & Gloat HERE!

I already said that this may make people leave FFR.

Hell, the gambling system on KoL was why I ended up leaving after I lost all my meat.

So ya, bye.

[devonin]

Re: The FFR Credit Gambling Thread - Whine & Gloat HERE!

Probability is a bitch. Just because it is absurdly unlikely that you lose 100 times in a row doesn't mean it won't happen anyway. "Streaks" are an illusion that we apply to a sequence after it has happened. The odds of every one of those losses happening was 50/50, and given a 50/50 chance, it isn't unlikely at all that you'd lose.

And Rubix...a win rate of only 41% is needed to get onto the toplist for losing. You aren't on it. You aren't on the longest losing streak list either. In fact, you're on the longest -winning- streak list. So I'm not getting where you feel justified in complaining where you are winning at least 42% of all your bets, never losing more than 14 in a row, despite having won 15 in a row.

[MrRubix]

Re: The FFR Credit Gambling Thread - Whine & Gloat HERE!

Streaks are not an illusion -- basing future probabilities off past streaks is an illusion. This streak of bad luck is absurdly improbable.

I have two 100k's sitting out there right now and nobody is taking them.

[TheRapingDragon]

Re: The FFR Credit Gambling Thread - Whine & Gloat HERE!

Improbable but not impossible.

Which is still what devonin is saying.

[MrRubix]

Re: The FFR Credit Gambling Thread - Whine & Gloat HERE!

Not impossible, but improbable enough to royally piss me off.

[devonin]

Re: The FFR Credit Gambling Thread - Whine & Gloat HERE!

It sounds to me like you've hatched some system whereby when you think you're going to lose, you bet small and when you think you're going to win you bet big. Given that you've wagered over 50 million credits, the fact that you're only down 1M is well within the bounds of probability, all it takes is a few wins on small values and losses on big values, and you can even be overall down credits while still maintaining one of the longest winning streaks, and never having a matching streak of losses.

[MrRubix]

Re: The FFR Credit Gambling Thread - Whine & Gloat HERE!

Not at all -- that's Gambler's ****ing Fallacy. I'm not trying to gauge when I am winning or losing -- if you bet the same thing over and over, you should expect to break even when the probability is 50/50 (try spamming a bunch of 10's and see what happens. You normally don't have too much of a net change). The house takes 2%, granted, but that leaves 98k or so, which is still a lot -- and therefore the 2% isn't really enough to matter in this case. Going from 3.5 mil to 1 mil is nuts.

Ok, four were up. I just accepted them. Lost three, won one.

Just lost a 1000 and then a 5000.

[devonin]

Re: The FFR Credit Gambling Thread - Whine & Gloat HERE!

I'm curious, and the stat has been requested but isn't visible as near as I can tell, what your actual won/loss record is numerically. Since you're placing bets of varying values, you can't really tell short of manually adding it up unless or until your win percentage gets high enough or low enough for the toplist.

That said, you're necessarily somewhere between 58.27%:41.73% and 41.37%:58.63% neither of which as extremes of the range are anywhere -near- so stunningly outside probability that someone as logical as you should be getting so emotionally upset.

[MrRubix]

Re: The FFR Credit Gambling Thread - Whine & Gloat HERE!

Well ok, look at that stream of 6 bets just then. One out of six = 16.6% win, 83.3% loss in subprobability.

[lumphoboextreme]

Re: The FFR Credit Gambling Thread - Whine & Gloat HERE!

lol those were mine. =D

[devonin]

Re: The FFR Credit Gambling Thread - Whine & Gloat HERE!

You're seriously going to tell me that you think over -6- bets, you should -have- to be showing close to a 50/50 result? Even if you -only- made 100k bets (which you've clearly not done) you've still made 500 bets as a minimum, for which your rate of winning is somewhere between 41-58% How is that somehow outside the bounds of reasonable probability?

[MrRubix]

Re: The FFR Credit Gambling Thread - Whine & Gloat HERE!

Dev: No, but over and over again across subsets, it shouldn't be such a ****storm.

Won a 1k, lost a 5k.

Lost twice again on top of that.

Do you see how absurd this is? Even when I revert back to hedging, I lose.

[devonin]

Re: The FFR Credit Gambling Thread - Whine & Gloat HERE!

See, "won a 1k, lost a 5k" is still a nice perfect and reasonable 50/50. Just because you keep varying the amount you bet and getting unlucky with when you pick big doesn't mean that you're even having improbably poor odds of winning. I think it would be really interesting if you counted it up and discovered that you are actually winning more than 50% of bets, and just being really unlucky with when you decide to bet a larger amount.