The FFR Credit Gambling Thread - Whine & Gloat HERE!

[rauchster]

Re: The FFR Credit Gambling Thread - Whine & Gloat HERE!

rauchster: Ah, I understand what you mean now. Yeah, that strategy is perfectly viable as long as you don't get greedy and aim too high, and if you can afford to lose on a really bad streak (say a streak of 6 in a row being bad) with all bets involved.

Which is why I've done my betting strategy as it is to take advantage of all the 5 or under losing streaks I get.
I've check, and had 35+ 2-3-4-5 losing streaks.
while only having 3 6+ losing streaks.
So I take advantage of all the smaller ones, and do marginal on the bigger (but less often) ones.

E-Mail sent.

[rzr]

Re: The FFR Credit Gambling Thread - Whine & Gloat HERE!

I think I've developed an unhealthy gambling addiction. Thanks, FFR. Really. Thanks.

[rauchster]

Re: The FFR Credit Gambling Thread - Whine & Gloat HERE!

No, I would figure this would require millions, even billions of bets to begin to play out in a predictable fashion. Explain to me why not.

And even then, with the house taking 1%, you're ****ed anyway

Because when you play off streaks, you are only playing off the length of the streaks, not the length of everything.
You're betting against the length of the streak.
You devise a betting strategy that allows you to win off of the most common, smaller, streaks. I.E.: 1-2-3-4-5 long losing streaks.
Since the higher streaks are less common, you make the previous strategy work out so that you break even or marginally win/lose the bigger streaks.

Or you can do this the opposite, and devise a strategy that does marginal on the lower streaks, but wins huge on the longer streaks.

Either way works.

I chose a strategy that wins marginally at 1-2-3-4 loss streaks, loses marginally on 6-9 loss streaks, and wins big on 5-7-8-10 streaks.
And since every win streak is a win regardless, that and the marginal wins after 1-2-3-4 loss streaks helps offset any marginal losses at 6-9 loss streaks.

[Adamaja456]

Re: The FFR Credit Gambling Thread - Whine & Gloat HERE!

ITT: critical thinking

[remedy1502]

Re: The FFR Credit Gambling Thread - Whine & Gloat HERE!

I'm such a ****ing idiot. I don't know when to stop. I was up to like, 300k from 125k, now I'm down to nothing. >_>

[MrRubix]

Re: The FFR Credit Gambling Thread - Whine & Gloat HERE!

No, I would figure this would require millions, even billions of bets to begin to play out in a predictable fashion. Explain to me why not.

And even then, with the house taking 1%, you're ****ed anyway

This simply isn't true. The smallest common increment for worst case scenario is 10 credits, max being 100k (most risky). To cover a hedged bet starting moderately (say 10k), anything I lose I can continue to re-cover with higher hedged bets, and therefore I earn back what I lost plus some, even when the house is taking 1%, since increasing increments can cover as long as such increments exist, and as long as the odds are good enough that you can guarantee an eventual win. This strategy actually has a name to it (I forgot what it was called), and it's empirically effective given that you aren't too risk-seeking/prone to overbetting, although it's generally frowned upon because it's very risky if you overdo it (since bad streaks DO occur. You still need to bail once in a while if you're losing too much). You can virtually guarantee you will never lose more money than you are making unless you have an absolutely crap streak, but even if that does occur, you can always get it back using the same strategy, as the probability of having two extremely bad streaks in close proximity (enough to offset your judgment of utility pertaining to whether or not you can afford to lose whatever you are betting) is even more improbable.

This strategy, again, only works if you have a lot of money relative to the increments. If you don't have a lot of money, you risk driving yourself into extreme debt by risking more than you should (as the increments are a higher percentage of your total credit count). As you earn more credits relative to these increments, the marginal impact of loss is diminished and therefore the cost of hedging decreases, thereby allowing you to recover under the assumption that a long, bad streak is not going to occur during recovery.

This is why his strategy is technically workable even though it's risky below a certain credit count (too lazy to calculate the cutoff for an expected breakeven). You could use the technique with as little as 50k (estimating) as long as you're operating with lower hedged increments. I wouldn't use this strategy if I had less than that, honestly.


EDIT: LOL, how funny. I started out with like 100 here... By re-covering lower variance bets with higher hedges, I am slowly earning money back. Only a matter of time before the numbers can start growing larger.

EDIT2: Yep, the moment I stop hedging, I start losing my higher-variance bets.

I wish I would have done this sooner when I had 100,000+ credits -- I've have millions right now, haha

[Shouka]

Re: The FFR Credit Gambling Thread - Whine & Gloat HERE!

Well my credits just got raped. I had a losing streak of 17 followed by another one of 13 very soon after.

333k -> 20k ;_;

[tofurox]

Re: The FFR Credit Gambling Thread - Whine & Gloat HERE!

I put my 8,000,000 in 50,000 bets!

[hahaujusdied]

Re: The FFR Credit Gambling Thread - Whine & Gloat HERE!

now I can only place 1 bet at a time... wtf..

[lightdarkness]

Re: The FFR Credit Gambling Thread - Whine & Gloat HERE!

now I can only place 1 bet at a time... wtf..

Yup

[Nyctor]

Re: The FFR Credit Gambling Thread - Whine & Gloat HERE!

I work with rauchster, and all I have heard for the past 8ish hours is about this, and I am so sick of hearing him talk about it. For the two of you who disagree with him, just stop for my sake.

Thank you,

Nick

[tofurox]

Re: The FFR Credit Gambling Thread - Whine & Gloat HERE!

no more 8 mill for me xd

[behanjc]

Re: The FFR Credit Gambling Thread - Whine & Gloat HERE!

Weeew!
We're in the money, we're in the money.

Too bad I don't care about credits but don't want to stop gambling either :P

Credits Won: 1242489
Credits Lost: 874240

[hahaujusdied]

Re: The FFR Credit Gambling Thread - Whine & Gloat HERE!

that makes it a lot tougher if you have less credits and want to use a strategy like mine that takes time (after 5000 games i gained about 5000 credits but i only started with 191).. that kinda ruins it.

[cry4eternity]

Re: The FFR Credit Gambling Thread - Whine & Gloat HERE!

woohoo I was down almost 30k credits yesterday, now I'm ahead by 5k. I figured it out