TWG 210: Vanilla Ice Cream in Sprite [GAME THREAD]

it does matter because no sheep is better than a 7/8 chance at winning the game outright

wolves could literally all claim wolf and just say "win 3 KitB in a row or lose, villagers"

this is fair I guess. I'm not gonna lie I havent even read last phase's EOD, but I think the specific story of "how Zenith got to be the wagon" is extremely important for this reason

It will give us a pretty good characterization of the mindset of the wolf team

I'm feeling more confident in the notion that "the wolves have never been in any real danger", which would then suggest that most of the game has been town just fucking ourselves over and over. A passive wolf team wouldn't necessarily feel compelled to steer AWAY from a Zenith mislynch---- something something Napoleon something never interrupting your opponent making a mistake

the fact that you arent makes me think you and potentially freezin have been pocketing me this entire fucking time and i hate it. i'm now deeply concerned that dbp is not a hit

The Votecount

benguino (5) - DaBackpack, XelNya, ShadoWolfe, Hateandhatred, the sun fan

botchi246 (2) - benguino, FreezinIce
star-crossed (2) - bugkid666, mellon_collie
DaBackpack (1) - Hakulyte
the sun fan (1) - _Zenith_
bugkid666 (1) - star-crossed

Not voting - botchi246

The Votecount
_Zenith_ (3) - XelNya, the sun fan, ShadoWolfe
Hateandhatred (3) - FreezinIce, star-crossed, DaBackpack

botchi246 (2) - Hakulyte, bugkid666

DaBackpack (1) - Hateandhatred
ShadoWolfe (1) - botchi246
Hakulyte (1) - _Zenith_

The Votecount
_Zenith_ (4) - the sun fan, bugkid666, Hakulyte, ShadoWolfe
botchi246 (1) - DaBackpack

Not voting - _Zenith_, XelNya, botchi246, FreezinIce

shado, I'll do my best to explain why we CAN'T kill afford not to kill Zenith
you are right that these are best left tto the mod normally
(I am missing out on something truly grand to be here btw I am experiencing FOMO)

Zenith is not here
he hasn't been here in a while, long enough for me to believe he isn't coming back
normally, this results in a replacement (or modkill)
the OP doesn't have anything about modkills for inactivity in it, I would be spitballing toi suppose something here

I think we have to operate under the assumption that he is not coming back, and that he will not be replaced (this is the most I will comment on the 2nd of these suppositions in this sentence)

Because of this, if he is a villager (which I think he likely isn't but w/e), town enters lylo essentially down a villager
in my estimation, we basically already have lost the game if this occurs

wolves can force a coinflip forever AT MINIMUM and town can only insta if a wolf busses another wolf, or votes for a town alongside town (which maybe they will, honestly, it is kinda based for wolves to just make town win the 12.5% rolls but I bet they'd be cowards instead since that feels like the theme of this game)

DBP (or whoever else) CAN be a wolf, obviously outside of zenith there are 2 or 3

but you cannot possibly tell me that you expect town to benefit immensely from
a) frontloading the flip from DBP (or whoever else) can possibly outweigh the risk of a permanent 12.5% win percentage
b) I actually forgot my 2nd point and checked a discord message and don't remembner, but in the interest of time, I will post this now

we ARE killing zenith, whoever else is wolfy WILL be here tomorrow, and town will either profit immensely by flipping zenith W or we will avoid forever disaster by flipping zenith T

killing Zenith even if he is town has genuinely the highest non-role related upside in a game I have ever seen

this logic doesnt apply exclusively to you; it would apply to anybody who had some level of influence over starting wagons

Alternatively, the Zenith target didn't matter because the wolves already had a sheep lined up for today (probably me)

this is fair I guess. I'm not gonna lie I havent even read last phase's EOD, but I think the specific story of "how Zenith got to be the wagon" is extremely important for this reason

It will give us a pretty good characterization of the mindset of the wolf team

I'm feeling more confident in the notion that "the wolves have never been in any real danger", which would then suggest that most of the game has been town just fucking ourselves over and over. A passive wolf team wouldn't necessarily feel compelled to steer AWAY from a Zenith mislynch---- something something Napoleon something never interrupting your opponent making a mistake

so I said earlier I'd explain the structural case against DBP and I want to do that now before EOD while I have the chance. thus far, his major moves this game have exclusively been anti-town, and near optimal wolf plays if wolf. with that said, town can make mistakes, so I tried to focus in on the moves themselves and figure out if they came from a genuine town perspective.

starting with D0, the progression of his reasoning for steering the wagon onto and mislynching benguino:
post

#439. DBP rescinds his mic drop/wet fart and pivots to "the freezin/ben interaction is wolf theater."

#448 he finds a specific ben post where ben said his read on someone depends on sunfan's opinion and calls it "very smelly."

#518 he says "I think I'm locking in on benguin."

I posted in #541 that I was worried about a ben lynch because all my reasons for it were associative and there was no wolf flipped to draw actual association from. DBP responded directly to that post in #549 and provided a framework for why the associations didn't matter as much. he said ben was specifically "couching" all his reads, always hedging, always keeping an exit: "I think X might be town, but I want to hear what sunfan has to say." "This person might be a wolf, but maybe X is instead." "If X is town, then Y is a wolf." he argued this was preemptive wiggle room, not genuine uncertainty.

then #555 he escalates it to the "escape hatch" framing, basically arguing ben's entire posting pattern was strategic maneuvering: "If a CFD happens on a bug wagon, then Ben can always 'safely' vote star instead." "If bug is town, then H&H is a wolf." "This is clear as day to me. IDK why no one else is noticing these things."
at this point, he had essentially cleared bug for the day so the failure to follow up with a vote or push on H&H seems weird.

zenith immediately responded in #565: "I didn't until you pointed it out in this way." the two of them validated each other's case on ben in real time

the connection between DBP and zenith in D0 matters for D1. DBP came into D1 with three votes on him between star, bugkid, and sunfan. he posted his will (#1013): "Im dead so here's where im at... ill at least leave a will." then "use your votes, cowards" (#1020). then when sunfan told him his despair seemed fake because zenith was dead if he just voted there, he said "I actually do but I'm beyond that despair" (#1024).

by VC #1044 he had no votes on him at all (haku moved to botchi, bugkid moved to botchi, sunfan moved to zenith), but he kept performing his dying man act til the final hammer
when he finally gave up the NV he had held throughout all of D1, he joined the zenith wagon briefly, probably because sunfan had given him an out that he couldn’t ignore, but as soon as the HnH wagon became viable, he ditched it. I saw the switch happen and moved back to zenith to put it in KitB.
HnH flipped town. zenith survived. and DBP's D2 agenda (#1058) was "revisit botchi, revisit xelnya, resolve freezin and shado." zenith isn't on it.

last thing: reading through EoD, his vibe does not seem to carry the same crazy frenzied EoD rush “WHAT ARE WE DOING” feeling that I think all of town is feeling in those moments

Feels a bit convenient, or I am overreading into shadows post on a quick read of it

I am kind of sad I made that iso on DBP and nobody had anything to say about it

I'm feeling more motivated to do work tonight than I was going into the phase (it was probably refreshing the page for the nightkill and not seeing it that killed my vibe)

direct me to the post I'm feeling like one of those dogs that points with its body when hunting rn

I learned I suck at ISOs (5 posts is kinda pathetic). Also specifically I suck at drawing conclusions from them, probably due to a lack of experience with the process. Sure DBP made a clear contradiction in his case against Ben but does that make him wolfy or just misguided town? I think all I can do is post this info and let it marinate and hope to be inspired by other peoples takes on it.

If ShadoWolfe didn't flip just now, I'd probably be heading into voting DBP here.

Now I'm just spooked because I feel like I'm getting outplayed by someone else.

Im finally on a computer

I was originally going to do a Zapruder film style deep dive on DBPs eod but after reading everything I dont think its warranted (Plus i dont think I'm capable of it). Most of his on d0 posts bang on the same drum. This was the start of his push on Ben



Obviously with the benefit of hindsight Ben was just being careful here, possibly feeling overwhelmed. But hindsight isnt important, what's important is if DBP is consistent. Lets move on



DBP continues to dig through Ben's posts, this was one of the few posts he made against Ben that diverged from his usual attack pattern against him, and reads like a genuine find done after some digging.



This is the second time DBP has hammered this point, at this point I notice and respond to him that logical patterns are very rarely this clear cut, and this is his response.



I accepted it at the time because he seemed locked in on this narrative, but 8 minutes previously when Mello called Ben a paranoid town DBP said this.



The first clear contradiction I've seen. Referring to the same anxiety/paranoia that Ben had, he calls it two completely different things. In one post he says its emotional and not an engineered strategy, in the other he says its engineered and manipulative. His narrative at this point isnt consistent.

Thats pretty much all thats interesting about DBP eod.

So what did I learn?

I learned I suck at ISOs (5 posts is kinda pathetic). Also specifically I suck at drawing conclusions from them, probably due to a lack of experience with the process. Sure DBP made a clear contradiction in his case against Ben but does that make him wolfy or just misguided town? I think all I can do is post this info and let it marinate and hope to be inspired by other peoples takes on it.