TWG Turbo 37: Der Freischütz [GAME THREAD]

Re: TWG Turbo 37: Der Freischütz [GAME THREAD]

Sorry, I completely forgot to factor in the extra Freikugel kills for this!!!!!!!!!

With those in mind, we could easily just get to F3 by day 3!!!

Which means that unfortunately, I think Soul Stealer very likely just should never activate at all... bit of a pity, it seems like a fun role!!!!

It's also really likely the Vengeful Spirit never activates, too!!

Re: TWG Turbo 37: Der Freischütz [GAME THREAD]

So my post sort of got eaten; before I forget, just noting down that I forgot to factor in the Fruikugel kills themselves and we could just hit F3 on day 3, meaning Soul Stealer unfortunately probably shouldn't activate at all!!!

Unless they reach F3... probably some way to arrange that, to optimize it!!

Re: TWG Turbo 37: Der Freischütz [GAME THREAD]

There are four equally likely outcomes of the first shot. If the first shot is a one or two, the second is guaranteed to go through. If it's a three, then it's a 3/4 chance and a 1/2 chance if it's a four. 1/4 + 1/4 + (3/4)1/4+(1/2)(1/4)=13/16=.8125 times 100 is 81.25.

The thing we may want to discuss is whether it would be beneficial for the Freikugel to announce their result. On the one hand, a one or a two would give us much more freedom in how we can use the Soul Stealer. On the other, town has no protective roles so it would mean that wolves get a free shot on them, but on the other other hand Freikugel isn't going to get a third shot and the chances of the game even getting to that point are not super high to begin with. The main advantage of keeping them hidden would be hopefully having them alive at -yLo to hopefully make it easier

Re: TWG Turbo 37: Der Freischütz [GAME THREAD]

They still would have to be careful at F3, as if a Devil shot goes off at that point it's a 2/3 shot of wolves winning then and there. We should only use it if we're certain what number the counter is at.

Re: TWG Turbo 37: Der Freischütz [GAME THREAD]

Hello y'all,

I'm having a debate with myself right now about if you guys are my best allies or just rolled wolf to stir conversation about blue roles. (I'm talking about either leetic or arapocalypse, but it's never too late to be more sus.)

I can see the enthusiast about looking into how much the game can brute force itself, but it's also one of the easier things to say.

2 wagons is probably the ideal world for whoever has to revisit posts during the night and take decisions.
I surprisingly don't like everyone self-voting here even with the role because wolves don't have to take risks with the votes and it's a lot more difficult to read into.
Not to mention, you have like 66,66% chance to vote someone town (not counting yourself) on the first day.

I usually vote based on behavior or if you're too difficult to read.
So yeah, if you guys can be as transparent as possible with intentions behind plays that'd be great.
That's more important to me than the math being done right.

This phase, I'd be looking at like-minded thoughts and try to vote into a pool that is making the least sense to me.
The good news is that we're the weekend and I should be around a lot. I'm sure I will run into misunderstandings soon enough because I don't have the best reading comprehension. \o

That being said, I understand that it's difficult to talk about behavior when almost no one else posted so, yeah.

Re: TWG Turbo 37: Der Freischütz [GAME THREAD]

Yeah okay, that's pretty close to how I did it anyways!!!


Hmm... Freikugel announcing their result is certainly an interesting concept!! That being said, the other advantage of keeping them hidden is that mafia can't just straight up roleblock them; getting the shot off would also be important, even if they die that night!!!


It seems like the issue is ideally the Soul Stealer would not want to be activated at all? They don't want to activate day 2 because the Freikugel would want to get a non-Devil night 2 shot off, and then day 3 it's even more likely they hit the Devil's Shot, unless the Freikugel has claimed!! Both Soul Stealer/Freikugel being alive on day 3 would probably change the situation significantly enough that it would be difficult to anticipate anyway, though!!!



I think if the Freikugel were to claim it would have to be on day 3, if they manage to live that long; you're right in that they likely just holster starting night 3 anyway!!

Re: TWG Turbo 37: Der Freischütz [GAME THREAD]

Yeah, not going to lie I'm just getting into this because only 1 other person around/it's fun to speculate; the specifics aren't that immediately relevant anyway, too many possibilities!!!!



Also yeah just completely discard the self-voting stuff I mentioned earlier, that's just something that completely wouldn't work well!!



But anyways... any thoughts on alignments of myself or leetic so far? Who's winning the debates so far, you or you?

Re: TWG Turbo 37: Der Freischütz [GAME THREAD]

(Personally I have basically zero alignment thoughts on leetic so far, this mechanics stuff doesn't really mean much either way!!!)

Re: TWG Turbo 37: Der Freischütz [GAME THREAD]

The Freikugel has the option to make their kill immune to roleblocks, the only disadvantage being that they can't use the strongman (as tracker doesn't matter if you're revealing anyway). It would limit our options somewhat (as wolves wouldn't have to deal with the WIFOM of whether using the vest or the roleblock is optimal) but not cripplingly so.

Re: TWG Turbo 37: Der Freischütz [GAME THREAD]

I disagree that you can't read people based on mechanical talk. You can learn a lot about the mindset of how someone is approaching the game based on their suggestions. It's basically a skill you have to learn in NSM.

May I ask where you're getting the 66% from? Assuming someone is town, from their perspective a random vote on someone other than themselves would have a 75% chance of hitting town, though that changes depending on whether PRs claim. We should probably assume that a PR should claim if they're in danger of going down at EoD, though it gets more complicated for the non-Freikugel PRs as realistically the counterwagons have a high chance of getting shot by the Freikugel. That's another thing we should probably pin down, coming to a consensus on not only who gets lynched but who the Freikugel should shoot.

Re: TWG Turbo 37: Der Freischütz [GAME THREAD]

And of course, the math on whether claiming is the better option or not changes depending on the game state, for instance if the first roll is a one that's good information for town to know as it means the Soul Stealer gets one free role use regardless of the second shot's results. But again, that changes if the Soul Stealer dies early on

Re: TWG Turbo 37: Der Freischütz [GAME THREAD]

nvm, I'm tired. I went 6/9 instead of 6/8.

Re: TWG Turbo 37: Der Freischütz [GAME THREAD]

OMG I DIDNT REALIZE THIS WAS ACTUALLY STARTING WOOOO HI

I was about to go to bed but I guess *cracks beer*

Definitely not going to like get into all this shit y'all are talking about tho like straight up

Re: TWG Turbo 37: Der Freischütz [GAME THREAD]

Voting over principles is kinda not the way to go 'cause I'm not you.

It will depend on if you guys avoid talking about alignment or not.
I feel like I'm in an episode of Good Cop Bad Cop. Hopefully, I'm wearing 3 vests in it.

Re: TWG Turbo 37: Der Freischütz [GAME THREAD]

I find this post really lame. It's up to you to engage people, you can't just expect people to suddenly have the content you feel okay with.