TWG CI: Fiction's Birthday Party

[Charu]

Originally Posted by dAnceguy117

I'm gonna drop one read every once in a while to keep bumping this thread.

Charu - slightly wolfy

sadfhuwuawhe if this were any other player I would want to lynch so bad. had a ton of Day 1 posts and all but 1 were noise. 2 minutes from phase end: #380 #381 #382 look rather comfortable for someone who supposedly doesn't know what is going on.

Day 2: I voted him, and then #638 is a guilt trip. he was active at the end of the phase but his vote was frozen on TPS.

Day 3: votes TPS at the very start of the phase. I later ask him for top 3 wolf reads, and #855 shows the reads as 1) Manti 2) Kraut 3) TPS. okay, so TPS is in third place, but vote stays on TPS? explanation for Manti as most wolfy in #857 but the reasoning is based entirely on Kraut being a wolf??? like what is the thought process here? on the other hand, j-rodd posted these reads in exactly the same order near the start of the phase. I have no idea whether Charu is woofin' or just sheepin'. #cantsayeitherway

I really don't know why you're so determined to get at me. I'm not a wolf and will scream it in your face in the form of a random sound clip if I have to.

Here, you want my thought process, here you go. Story time kids, Uncle Charu gonna read the Depths of Charu's Mind. I heard it's a pretty good book.

Day 1: I attempted to not read too much into anything whatsoever (since how can I, I have zero knowledge of any of you fucks unless I did some extensive TWG homework, which I didn't do) and just go to where the flock was going. I made my vote to pnt when the vast majority was already made. I had no idea it was going to be a negative outlook for myself since pretty much even without my vote, pnt was going to get lynched anyways. #Sheepinallthewayyeahbitchyeah

Day 2: V starts chewing me out so now I'm going "Oh, I guess that wasn't a good move" so I just watched events happen as I read post after post. That's when I started to make conclusions that TPS gave a wolf read with his lack of... well... anything. He then posted one defensive post, but made no attempt to calm the town he was no threat, so I just stuck on him the entire day.

Day 3: This was the day we were questioning Kraut's motive and then j-rodd being convinced he was a wolf (Apparently so since he claimed he was the mother which in turn meant he blocked Kraut... from what I've seen). I wasn't convinced though and stuck to TPS still because he still gave me really bad vibes. I didn't know if Kraut was a wolf or not. My senses didn't go to Kraut, even though I thought it was odd he went after Fiction and not Dark after he agreed.

My list I gave you, Mr. Clown, was me saying "This is the list IF Kraut was a wolf. If Kraut was a wolf, Dark would be shot up to number 1. But I'm not leaving TPS alone from this."

Eventually though, Kraut was indeed a wolf, so now my suspicion on TPS kind of went down as Dark went up. However, is Dark a wolf? That seems to be the underlying question this phase. Now everyone is taking his post and going to Crazyjayde.

[Charu]

So... that's my story. Okay? Okay.

[DarkManticoreX2]

So I'm about to leave for the night, and I don't know when I'm going to be back.

That being said I'm sticking with my read on Jayde. I asked V's opinion on Jayde because the two have been rather neutral to each other over the course of the game. V's irritated response was a bit of a suprise seeing as his earlier read on Jayde was just this:

Originally Posted by Vendetta21

Jayne has been inundated in theory (an easy way to appear engaged as a new wolf) and has made plays that I seriously question.

If you question Jayde's plays why haven't you put pressure on him? Jayde has skated by most of this game without coming under any scrutiny at all (except oddly from TPS).

Jayde hasn't made any contriversial posts, has shied away from big votes, and has kept a persona about himself that the raw data (his votes) don't match. I'd expect V to have pressured this more.

If Jayde flips wolf, look at V.

[dAnceguy117]

manti thank you for playing the game, much appreciated. if youre wrong (or a wolf) then the town will policy lynch tmrw hope u know that.

JRODD WHERE ARE YOUUU WE NEED TO CHILLLL

[dAnceguy117]

we WILL need an insta on someone because it looks like Svaz won't be voting.

[Charu]

Oi... if we're going after Crazyjayde, I really hope you know then, Mr. Dark, that people will second guess your reads if he's a wolf. There's too much damage done to lift suspicions off of you, least from this dumb Snivy's viewpoint, but just know that: Either he dies and he flips green... and then we kill you the very next day. Or he dies and flips red... and we might still kill you the very next day.

[Svaz]

Whoa, hi, sorry, reading the thread now

[Svaz]

Though if someone could get in a votecount, this would be nice

[dAnceguy117]

-----------------------------------------------------------------
DarkMantiCoreX2 - (3) - James May, Charu, Vendetta21, mellonxcollie
TPS222 - (2) - J-Rodd123, Crazyjayde
Crazyjayde - (3) - TPS222, DarkMantiCoreX2, mellonxcollie
Charu - (1) - Danceguy117
James May - (0) - Crazyjayde
-----------------------------------------------------------------

[j-rodd123]

hey im here sorry, ill be here till end

[j-rodd123]

Vendetta to tide me over

[j-rodd123]

lmao I just noticed in manti's post up there from the quote that V called crazyjayde "Jayne". it's probably nothing but in the last wolf game I played I called a guy whos username started with divided as divine, and we were both wolves, so it was just a subtle distancing thing that no one ever mentioned but yeah it would be funny if that's what V was doing

[Vendetta21]

Originally Posted by DarkManticoreX2

So I'm about to leave for the night, and I don't know when I'm going to be back.

That being said I'm sticking with my read on Jayde. I asked V's opinion on Jayde because the two have been rather neutral to each other over the course of the game. V's irritated response was a bit of a suprise seeing as his earlier read on Jayde was just this:



If you question Jayde's plays why haven't you put pressure on him? Jayde has skated by most of this game without coming under any scrutiny at all (except oddly from TPS).

Jayde hasn't made any contriversial posts, has shied away from big votes, and has kept a persona about himself that the raw data (his votes) don't match. I'd expect V to have pressured this more.

If Jayde flips wolf, look at V.

Look at the post you are quoting. I list wolfy aspects of four players. And I've stated why I'm not as aggressive and obsessed with this game as usual shortly after that.

You sure are one to throw expectations around.

[Vendetta21]

Originally Posted by j-rodd123

lmao I just noticed in manti's post up there from the quote that V called crazyjayde "Jayne". it's probably nothing but in the last wolf game I played I called a guy whos username started with divided as divine, and we were both wolves, so it was just a subtle distancing thing that no one ever mentioned but yeah it would be funny if that's what V was doing

i was playing from my iphone

[Vendetta21]

type jayde on your iphone

[j-rodd123]

I believe u, it was really a farfetched thing to say haha

[Svaz]

Originally Posted by dAnceguy117

disagreed. any one player can become inactive at any time. probably due to other obligations, maybe due to boredom, and I would say rarely on purpose in an attempt to win. most people sign up for a game to actually play the game.

I guess the thing that stood out most to me is this; I am not deliberately aspiring to be inactive, I just started focusing on classes and whatnot and didn't quite have the cognitive energy or composure, I guess, to commit to TWG.

Rae's post made me feel kinda bad in that I guess obligation/drive to post should extend beyond having a key role or being a wolf, like, for that post Kraut highlighted of mine (and I'm a little surprised to not see this come up in accusations against me, though perhaps he was reaching) of me being frustrated about activity and power roles, I'm being progressively less impassioned about playing. It feels bad and I feel like a jerk about it.

I guess I can concede that I'm pretty low content too? I again don't quite aspire to be, I'm a bit weaker in tactical planning in compare to others, I guess. It's kinda hard to contribute anything of meaning with a blank role, honestly. There's no insight as to what goes on behind the scenes.

Eh, anyway, I felt that since it was mentioned, it'd be polite to address it to some extent. Too lazy to dig up references, though.

--------

I still get a pretty human vibe from Charu and from mellonxcollie, if just for their sincere seeming drive to contribute to the campaigns of other, though I suppose I still don't feel sure.

I tried to do a color coded thing like j-rodd but I kept moving everyone everywhere and it seems like a hopeless, maybe futile endeavour for me at this point, here it is at the most basic level, though:

Good Guy: dAnce, j-rodd123, Pizza
I Think Town Has A Chance With This Guy: Crazyjayde, Charu
"Nice" Guy: mellonxcollie, Vendetta21
I'm Not Too Sure About This Guy: James May, DarkManticoreX2
Say Hello To The Bad Guy?: TPS222

My gut still feels like TPS222 over everyone, but he does seem to be genuinely busy and I can empathise with that. The CJ thing seems sudden and a bit strange, and I think I'm going to have to re-evaluate earlier progressions in the game. I'm going to go with that now based on intuition alone, but at this present moment I feel a bit iffy on everything.

[j-rodd123]

ok im still reading crazyjayde but by 10 we need to have at least 2 votes more on our top suspect obv, make the PP useless

[dAnceguy117]

hi everyone, again, please don't look at what I say and agree with me without thinking. although that hasn't really happened at all anyway haha. but see if you notice something here, or if you don't agree.



V - wolfy

j-rodd said earlier that V is playing very well, and I completely agree, regardless of his role. some of the things he says really make me second guess my read. when I look at the actions, though, I want to stick to my read.

day 1: mostly absent. skipping.

day 2: very interesting stuff. V hard defended Fiction (on the basis that Fiction is an active player) in #693 and tried to move the lynch to either TPS or Manti. if V is town, that's a really good play. if V is a wolf, that's a really good play.

day 3: the basis of my read. #775 is the vote on Krauthammer. he never moved his vote afterward. if he's town, then he thought he had a very strong read, and rightfully so. but check out the logic.

Originally Posted by Vendetta21

agreeing with jrodd's wolf tells, calling him human, and voting manti now after your second phase of lynching green? and with jrodd nonetheless. "oh no i'm going to keep completely agreeing with this guy and following his lead but never consider him wolfy when he fails to catch red."

he's right. j-rodd was on both wagons in Day 1 and Day 2, when we lynched humans. jrodd's red reads were Manti/Kraut/TPS, and Kraut's fake red reads were Manti/TPS.

does this logic work as a basis to immediately catch a wolf as a townie? Kraut agreed with jrodd's reads, yes. so did V in post #808. Kraut's fake read on jrodd was town, yes. V implied that his read on jrodd was town in post #819.

let's say you're a townie. you see something you find suspicious, and you try to articulate why. if you then find that you can apply the exact same reasoning to yourself (a townie), does that logic make sense to very accurately hone in on a wolf?

townies can lynch correctly based on wonky logic, yes. that's called luck, and it happens frequently. but we had basically no mentions of or votes on Kraut in the first 2 days. jrodd blocked Krauthammer's kill during night 2, and the wolves knew it, as essentially shown in Kraut's posts #773 and #786. Kraut (at least supposedly) thought that the no-kill was due to a block rather than a guard based on the host's post. it looks like Kraut tried to bait out fiction's mom (jrodd). there are a couple advantages if they can do that:

1) fiction's mom is outed. they get to kill fiction's mom the following night, or at least me when I guard jrodd.
2) the entire lynch would have been mechanic and there would be no information given.

jrodd didn't claim. after seeing Kraut's name suddenly in the red section of jrodd's reads, though, I bet the wolves knew what was up. V then strikes with the super-accurate read, and we kill Krauthammer. examine these events. do you think it was set up?

[Vendetta21]

i've been working a lot so my current perspective is layered with this thought of process variance because it's what i deal with a lot these days.

i think i've been looking for stable signals in what is a cacophony of noise.

one thing i notice is that both of the people i feel are the wolfiest (TPS, Manti) are trying to lynch jayde. this doesn't sit well with me. this is an indicator of a mislynch to me, and what feels like a stable signal in a process with a lot of variance.

given people's who i feel are human's surfacing reservations about lynching manti i'm also okay with lynching TPS222