TWG XCI: Waned Lichens

[Viccica]

Re: TWG XCI: Waned Lichens

Afro's gameplan: I'll call out everyone at some point so I can say 'I told you so.' in the postgame.





Activity post mingled with I'll actively be on AIM for the next hour and a half or so.

[Afrobean]

Re: TWG XCI: Waned Lichens

Afro's gameplan: I'll call out everyone at some point so I can say 'I told you so.' in the postgame.

I might call everyone a wolf at some point, but I tend to have a hammered out list of real suspects around day 2. I always limit myself to the amount of wolves in the game for my list too. If I didn't limit myself to the amount of wolves there really are, I'd have "nailed" all of the wolves each time.

Activity post

Didn't you do this last game where you were a wolf? Posted just to say "hey look at me, I'm being active" then dropped off completely?

Didn't we talk about the 'right conclusions from wrong premesis' thing a while ago? *grin*

I don't care what leads me to my destination as long as the destination is right. Last game I was attacking Syhto with all kinds of things that were probably complete bunkum (killed Panda because Panda revealed that Syhto had killed Ruritsu when Panda made it appear that Ruritsu was the seer?), but I don't care what ammo I was hitting her with since my aim was true.

And as long as I have a track record that's better than random chance, I don't see why anyone would fault me for attacking for smaller details which might not be right.

[devonin]

Re: TWG XCI: Waned Lichens

Because faulty reasoning means that your track record still is based on random chance, you just happen to be getting some RNG love with the guesses.

I can win ten coin tosses in a row without being able to claim that I'm applying any kind of predictive logic. Sometimes lucky guesses are right, doesn't make them not lucky :P

[devonin]

Re: TWG XCI: Waned Lichens

I always limit myself to the amount of wolves in the game for my list too. If I didn't limit myself to the amount of wolves there really are, I'd have "nailed" all of the wolves each time.

Well yes, if you could accuse every single person of being a wolf, you would correctly identify all the wolves...

[devonin]

Re: TWG XCI: Waned Lichens

ITT: Dev says "Let's actually apply only good and reasonsed logic to our decisions"
ITT Afro says "But random wild accusations sometimes work!"

[Afrobean]

Re: TWG XCI: Waned Lichens

If all we allowed for was HARD evidence, the only wolves lynched would be ones who are seer'd or caught definitively in lies.

And even then, there are cases of faked seerings or non-wolves lying so even that's not conclusive. Look at last game, our seer was guilty of both fake seering AND getting caught in a lie (faked log, no less).

Dev, you act like what I do, I do at random. That's not right. It's more like deduction through gut-infused over-analysis. It's not like I'm getting I'm rolling the die and getting lucky here. I'm picking my targets to attack when I see something that doesn't feel right to me.

Because faulty reasoning means that your track record still is based on random chance

Just because ONE of the pillars my attack is based may be faulty doesn't mean they all are, and just because a person CLAIMS my attack on them is based on faulty reasons doesn't mean it truly is. Often the things I attack a person for are things they don't consciously do. For example, Viccica made a post stating "Activity post" and I pointed out this happened last game where she was a wolf. If she is a wolf this game, she might claim my attacking her for this wasn't a legitimate reason to attack, but I feel that it's something she might be doing subconsciously as a wolf to attempt to make herself stand out a little more (knowing that NOT standing out will make her appear more wolfy). Or how about Syhto last game where she was "too drunk to talk TWG" and I took this to mean she had something to hide. Was I right? Yeah, I was right. Would she admit that her minor inebriation caused this slip-up? No, she'd probably say I was reading too much into what she said. But she didn't consciously think about the implications of what she was saying, so is it really fair for her to say whether or not I did a good job of picking her brain?

[FictionJunction]

Re: TWG XCI: Waned Lichens

hi devonin o/

[devonin]

Re: TWG XCI: Waned Lichens

Good and reasoned logic != "Only hard facts" The only hard facts are "You're a wolf" or "You're a human" etc and especially with no seer, such information -should- never enter the game at all.

But someone posting "activity post" and turning out to be a wolf and then posting "activity post" in the next game, and saying "Well now you're under suspicion of being a wolf!" isn't good -or- reasoned logic IMO. Look back, all KINDS of people make "obligatory human post" posts whether they're red, green or blue.

IE. Whether she's a wolf or not this game, "That's not a valid reason to suspect me" IS a valid objection.

[devonin]

Re: TWG XCI: Waned Lichens

Ohai fic

[FictionJunction]

Re: TWG XCI: Waned Lichens

I'm in love with devonin.

[FictionJunction]

Re: TWG XCI: Waned Lichens

just throwing that out there

[devonin]

Re: TWG XCI: Waned Lichens

<3

[Afrobean]

Re: TWG XCI: Waned Lichens

dev it sounds like you're defending vicc specifically

It sounds less like you're giving an attempt at refuting my methods and are merely mad that I'm attacking vicc.

[devonin]

Re: TWG XCI: Waned Lichens

I was trying to think of how to characterize your information gathering style at this game, and I've basically determined that your technique is to arbitrarily accuse everyone and see who looks flustered.

[devonin]

Re: TWG XCI: Waned Lichens

And if it would make you feel better, I could make a second post, which carried absolutely no new or useful information but referred to your use of Syhto's "Too drunk to talk" to prove that she was a wolf too. But I figured you'd be clever enough to see the point I was making, and not get hung up on the particular case I picked out of the two in the post?