Revealing what floor you're checking is different. I would still love to have people say what floors they'll check, just so we don't triple up on a floor.
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You know, I was thinking, what are the odds that 2 people wind up in the same room. I've seen the probability discussions in past games, so I know some of you are good at figuring it out, and I think it may have been figured out and said before, but I would like to know what the chances are. If they're really low, then we really don't have to worry about Patriots. We should mainly just focus on finding and completing the objectives.Comment
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Well for the record, I'll be on floor B
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So, who wants to go check on Olive? I think he may already be dead.
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Is that possible, or are you just being sarcastic?
Because I don't think the Reds can attack at all..
EDIT: Ugh...nevermind.
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Our elite special forces, ladies and gentlemen.Originally posted by FOXHOUND-BlueComment
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^ Haha.
Anyway.
"Gray, I agree to your terms and will aid in the completion of this mission."
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Good. I have 2 on my side. The other 12?
And, as far as the odds, 23.4% that 2 people will be in the same room, I think. I did 63/64*62/63*...49/50. That is 15 numbers multiplied. I'm not sure if it is supposed to be 15 or 14. If it is 14, the odds are 21.9%. So, figure every 4th or 5th round, 2 people will be together, assuming everything is unbiased. Clearly, as the game progresses, certain rooms will be left out by everyone, and the odds will increase.
On another note, this is the conversation from the chat tonight. There is little said, but a few very interesting things are said. Any comments about it from the rest of the gang?
You have just entered room "FOXHND Chat."
FOXHND Magenta: Sup, gray.
FOXHND Gray: Watching Tilt. Back later.
FOXHND Gray: Howdy.
FOXHND Magenta: Tilt?
FOXHND Green: Hola Gray
FOXHND Green: Oh wel bye grey
FOXHND Gray: Tilt. TV Show.
FOXHND Green: gray*
FOXHND Yellow: I want Blue to get on so I can make my funny joke
FOXHND Magenta: Grey or gray? I always say Grey :-\
FOXHND Green: Oh, and we make Gray Green
FOXHND Yellow: It cant be spelt both ways
FOXHND Green: m i rite?
FOXHND Yellow: It can*
FOXHND Purple: I recently learned the spelling differs depending on what country you are in.
FOXHND Magenta: I like the e better than the a.
FOXHND Purple: Both are correct, but one is more common in the US, and one is more common in the UK.
FOXHND Gray: Yes Purple. They must spell it Grey in Canada.
FOXHND Gray: Back later.
FOXHND Yellow: lol.
FOXHND Purple: Fine.
FOXHND Purple: No more of my useless trivia knowledge for you.
FOXHND Magenta: I've always liked the e better...
FOXHND Yellow: Hardly useless!
FOXHND Magenta: ...and I'm not Canadian :-\
FOXHND Yellow: ....or are you, PATRIOT!
FOXHND Purple: I'm Southern.
FOXHND Yellow: I'm sorry.
FOXHND Purple: Aw.
FOXHND Magenta: You can't say you're Southern, that might give away your identity.
FOXHND Magenta: I'm soooooooo telling Chardish.
FOXHND Magenta: jk
FOXHND Purple: I thought of that AFTER I said it.
FOXHND Yellow: I think I already know who some colors are, but that doesn't help me much.
FOXHND Purple: Yeah.
FOXHND Magenta: Yeah, I totally know who gray is
FOXHND Purple: Who we are doesn't matter too much, unless we know specifically with whom we would like to ally.
FOXHND Yellow: Anyone found some elaborate loopholes to exploit to their advantage yet?
FOXHND Purple: OMG THAT'S THE BEST PART OF THIS GAME.
FOXHND Yellow: I'm glad Chardish balanced out the game a bit more.
FOXHND Purple: As am I.
FOXHND White: PATRIOTS!
FOXHND Magenta: During the balancing decision I thought of quite a few Patriot strategies, but I shan't share those.
FOXHND Purple: :O
FOXHND Magenta: I'm not particularly happy that Chardish balanced it
FOXHND Magenta: He ruined my idea.
FOXHND White: XD
FOXHND Purple: At the same time, a victory when the odds are unfairly stacked in your advantage is kind of unsatisfying.
FOXHND Magenta: Now to find Patriots we have to do so much
FOXHND Purple: I like a challenge.
FOXHND Magenta: Yeah, but I like getting more pips
FOXHND Magenta: Wait....this isn't TWG.
FOXHND Magenta: We won't get pips!!!!!
FOXHND Magenta:
FOXHND Purple: Or there will be NEW BANNERS.
FOXHND Purple: Osnaps.
FOXHND Magenta: =-O=-O=-O
FOXHND White: Sweet Jesus
FOXHND Green: Are we talking about pips?
FOXHND Yellow: You guys won't be getting one anyone. I plan on winning this game solo. I'll kill all other 14 people and take all the glory.
FOXHND Yellow: anyway*
FOXHND White: Good job, yellow
FOXHND Green: We better get pips >:-0
FOXHND Purple: Good strategy, Yellow.
FOXHND Yellow:
FOXHND Magenta: You bitch. Let's vote him off.
FOXHND Yellow:
FOXHND Purple: I'd like to try that one, too.
FOXHND Purple: OHHH!
FOXHND Green: yeah yellow is gone
FOXHND Yellow: That would be hilarious if someone could pull it off
FOXHND Green: you can no longer mix with green (lol yellow green)
FOXHND Magenta: Yellow, you can't.
FOXHND Magenta: Game would end when less than 4 people.
FOXHND Purple: He could use guards.
FOXHND Magenta: UNLESS YOU'RE A PATRIOT! =O
FOXHND Purple: I saw that somewhere.
FOXHND Yellow: Unless I take out all 3 other people at once!!!
FOXHND Magenta: And then you'd lose...
FOXHND Purple: It's true.
FOXHND Yellow: erm, I'd use gaurds!
FOXHND Magenta: Unless you're a Patriot.
FOXHND Purple: The wolves did all end up dead last time.
FOXHND Purple: After winning.
FOXHND Yellow: No, wouldn't it only be possible as a human?
FOXHND Magenta: A wolf can win solo.
FOXHND Magenta: A human cannot.
FOXHND Yellow: Oh right, we need 4 to complete our mission.
FOXHND Purple: The Patriots win when there are not enough Foxhound members to complete the mission.
FOXHND Yellow: Bogus
FOXHND Magenta: As soon as the number of humans drops to 3, it's game over.
FOXHND White: We need, at the very very least 2 players with npcs
FOXHND White: oh
FOXHND White: Three, then
FOXHND Magenta: Oh, NPCs, so 2 could work.
FOXHND Yellow: Yawn, I want the movement phase to be over with already.
FOXHND Magenta: Well guys, I need to get going. I have homework to do.
FOXHND Yellow: Is there someone holding us back?
FOXHND Magenta has left the room.
FOXHND Yellow: Good, we will plot against you while you are gone.
FOXHND Green: Ha
FOXHND Purple: 11:59 EST.
FOXHND Yellow: SO HOW ABOUT THAT WOLF? I MEAN MAGENTA?
FOXHND Green: I say we kill magenta
FOXHND Purple: Or Purple.
FOXHND Purple: He's looking shifty.
FOXHND White: I agree
FOXHND Purple: Because I've got homework, too!
FOXHND Yellow: Yeah, but he is purple. What do you expect?
FOXHND Green: No GREEN
FOXHND White: =O
FOXHND Purple: Anyway.
FOXHND Green: Green is a trickster
FOXHND Yellow: aaaaaaanyway
FOXHND Purple: Homework = pass school and/or sleep.
FOXHND Purple: Good night.
FOXHND Green: Night
FOXHND Yellow: I have some too.
FOXHND Purple has left the room.
FOXHND Yellow: I just don't want to do it...
FOXHND Green: Haha
FOXHND White: I finished mine ^.^
FOXHND Yellow: RUB IT IN THEN
FOXHND Yellow: GO AHEAD
FOXHND White: ok
FOXHND White: Yeah, I finished ALL my homework
FOXHND Yellow: Well, I dropped out of school to concentrate on this game.
FOXHND White: =O
FOXHND White: That's dedication
FOXHND Yellow: Who said they failed one of their finals because of this game? I found that really funny.
FOXHND Yellow: Cynically delicious.
FOXHND Maroon has entered the room.
FOXHND Maroon has left the room.
FOXHND Yellow: ....
FOXHND Yellow: I'll see you cool cats tomorrow.
FOXHND Yellow has left the room.
FOXHND Indigo: god I hate capa
FOXHND Indigo: allright, that homework is done
FOXHND Indigo: wow, I can see we accomplished nothing
FOXHND Green: Ha
FOXHND Indigo: hey, this bodies still alive
FOXHND Indigo: I thought you had talked yourselves into your graves
FOXHND Indigo: oh he's gone again
FOXHND Green: Who, what, where?
FOXHND Indigo: oh, he's alive again
FOXHND Green: Me?
FOXHND Indigo: no, the other person that's talking
FOXHND White: Me
FOXHND Indigo: ...yes
FOXHND Green: oh
FOXHND Indigo: gj
FOXHND White: I know
FOXHND Indigo: sry, I'm out of cookies
FOXHND White: Darn it
Gray out.
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Oh yes, I forgot to mention. Another note about the odds, which I mentioned to a few people privately. The reason I have not given out which floor I am going to today is this: If the Patriots wish to target 1 specific person (or randomly go for 2), they can all go to the same floor, giving them 3/8 or 37.5% of the rooms on that floor covered. Now, that is 37.5% of landing in the room with THE SPECIFIC PERSON THEY WANT, vs randomly doing it at 21.9% or 23.4% for anyone. Throw in the mix that they could go for 2 specific people who have said that they will be on the same floor. The odds that they will get at least 1 of the 2 is 1-((6/8)*(5/7)*(4/6)) = 1-30/84 = 54/84 = 9/14 = 64.3%. (I think all my calculations are correct. My apologies if they aren't.)
So, my point of posting this is to tell everyone to NOT post what floor they will be going to.
Gray out.Comment
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One incorrect calculation. The 21 % is the chance of you specifically being in a room with someone else, not the odds of any 2 people being in a room together, right?
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I thought it was the odds of any 2 being together. Again, I may be wrong, but I'll stand by my math until proven otherwise.
Gray out.Comment
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:OOriginally posted by alainbryden
Who is this alainbryden?
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Colonel! I think we've been compromised!! Do you know of any authorization on one AlainBryden? How does he have access to this frequency?!?!Comment
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So, where is the error in my calculation, to go to 57.8 from my 64.3?
Gray out.Comment
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Do the exact mathematical odds of this really matter that much that you're worried about a change of less than 7?Comment
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