TWG XXXV - Knick It In The Bud

[Omeganitros]

Re: TWG XXXV - Knick It In The Bud

OOOH, Afrobean's posts are making me really mad! Afrobean, I really hope were just testing reactions. Anyways,

Tass is pretty much safe all game because the wolves know that he's GARANTEED SOME votes and therefore they wouldn't be willing to take that 30-40% chance of a guard lol.

I'm pretty sure Tasselfoot was only safe for last night, because he asked everyone really really really nicely to not be killed Night 1. Now that his wish has been granted, my guess is that he's on his own the rest of the game.

Wilkin: Wait, so on Night 3, there's a 25% of a guarding if 3 wolves all lotto one person and wolf them? Oh man, that's pretty good odds, and they keep increasing every night. That's like...Woah, dude.

My suspicions: Everyone who has posted that they don't think Tass got the most lotto votes last night. Could easily be a wolf just opposing their own reasoning they used to wolf talisman. Or, maybe, they really did oppose the idea but the other wolves didn't.
Or maybe a human that thinks Tass wasn't a popular choice.
In fact, now that I think about it, that's something a wolf would probably avoid publically disagreeing with, because it puts a lot of attention on them.
Whatever.

Sorry I haven't spoken up much, I've been playing Dawn of War (5 hours, and I still haven't beaten the 4th mission. I am SO OCD when it comes to RTS.)

[Tasselfoot]

Re: TWG XXXV - Knick It In The Bud

Well, assuming there are 3 wolves left going into night 4... there would be 10 players, 3 are wolves, 30% chance. 3/12 for night 3, or 25%. That is all assuming that there are a full load of wolves left.

If they really want to chance killing one of their own on a 25% or 30% shot... go for it. I'm ok with those odds. and I don't see them doing it night 5, since if they had 3 wolves on night 5, they'd win with a human lynch of day 5. No sense risking 5/8 shot of dying and extending the game another day vs 1 wolf being "proven" human for that 1 day.

But, that is the other thing with human revealing their past guards... it might show a trend of multiple humans guarding 1 specific wolf. take 2 human + 3 wolves all guarding 1 person on night 4... 50% shot.


Finally, Omega... yea, I asked really nicely to be guarded last night. But at the same time, I am still a valuable asset and I see no reason why I wouldn't see be picked by at least a few people. I know I'm going to continue picking myself. *shrugs*. Consider that selfish... kinda is, but I also feel I'm the best shot at the human winning... which you could call egotistical. But I'll call it fact.

[FishFishRevolution]

Re: TWG XXXV - Knick It In The Bud

Where are FoJaR, Kefit, and ap?

And Wilkin, Omega, Fish, Guido, flypie, and TPS have all said very little...

lol. calling out 60% of the game. sad.

Tass: lol i'm so great look at me eorieorieorieorieori

Seriously, shut up, I've been doing stuff today becuase i've finally gotten a break. Now that people are gone, I'll gladly take a look at what people have said, which will probably result* in a vote on you 8)

<3

*EDIT: it said resort rofl

[aperson]

Re: TWG XXXV - Knick It In The Bud

I read this thread then when it was still lame and empty then went out and bought clothes and played DDR. I came back and found out that Tass finally got enough flexibility to suck his own dick.

But really Tass, isn't the best operative mode to proclaim what you have as the best strategy while keeping the true best strategy under wraps for yourself? You said that if you were a wolf you would definitely wolf yourself night one to get the guard and rape everything. Since that didn't outcome didn't occur, you must not be a wolf. I call bullshit. You know you wouldn't risk that, and you know that the odds ultimately won't be very heavily in your favor, because logically at most half of the people will be voting for you. You know there will be a lot of people on some other tier of sicilian thinking putting guard votes on me, talisman, or on other people who are on a rung near you. You know that this risky probability is too volatile for you to want to put everything on the line, so please go on trying to blow smoke up our asses and stroking your own ego, because all it does is bring more dumb slipups you make to light.

I don't want to throw a vote on you yet, because ultimately your monolithic ego is slightly justified... but damn dude, you aren't doing well so far.

[blahblah18]

Re: TWG XXXV - Knick It In The Bud

man , Tass will rue the day he didn't have AP wolfed night 1

[flypie743]

Re: TWG XXXV - Knick It In The Bud

You said that if you were a wolf you would definitely wolf yourself night one to get the guard and rape everything. Since that didn't outcome didn't occur, you must not be a wolf. I call bullshit. You know you wouldn't risk that, and you know that the odds ultimately won't be very heavily in your favor, because logically at most half of the people will be voting for you. You know there will be a lot of people on some other tier of sicilian thinking putting guard votes on me, talisman, or on other people who are on a rung near you. You know that this risky probability is too volatile for you to want to put everything on the line, so please go on trying to blow smoke up our asses and stroking your own ego, because all it does is bring more dumb slipups you make to light.

I agree. More times than I can count Tass has voiced his opinion that he would never kill off a himself or fellow wolf because it was too risky. If I recall correctly you voiced this when Tps and Alain pulled their stunt hoping the guardian would guard Alain and the wolves lost Alain and another time when Chardish pulled that fake AIM convo with Tps saying Tps slipped up with him on AIM and was a wolf. There were probably other times, but I know that you have always felt strongly that this would be a huge risk and that you wouldn't take it.

edit for typo.

[Omeganitros]

Re: TWG XXXV - Knick It In The Bud

What an interesting new perspective! So, when did Tass say that, in a convo or something?

[iggymatrixcounter]

Re: TWG XXXV - Knick It In The Bud

No one is 100% safe in this game no matter what. If the wolves are backed into a corner, they WILL take a risky kill over a safe one.

Yes no one is 100% safe. But as I already said, something with a significant risk is, for all practical purposes, almost 100% safe. But I already said that XD.

Which if the wolves are backed in a corner, not only would we be able to see this (because they took a risk.) but also we would know that victory is close or at least we would be on the right track.

*note to iggy: Revealing who you voted to guard doesn't help anyone. All it does is add another layer to the thinking in guessing who to guard. I'd rather keep things like that as simple as possible, thank you very much.

Did I just not post a huge post about what the benefits would be? Seriously revealing that info DOES have its benefits. And just because you want to keep things simple, doesn't make it the best strategy. We are already simple enough, how do you expect to find wolves when there's nothing to talk about? Wouldn't doing things this way be a HUGE help for that? Or do you plan on analyzing obvious kills because that's the only "for sure" thing you could expect this game. Why not make it hard for the wolves. The humans wouldn't HAVE to do anything with the information, but it would be more of a burden on the wolves to figure out what is going on to get the best kill. And the humans can ensure that wolves are at least putting votes on good picks and rule out the "3 wasted guardian picks" every night.

How about if everyone sent thier choice to cypher and he posted them all? Kind of like I did with my first example. This would lower the chances of wolves lying because they would have to pick people that would at least be contending for a wolfing. Which would actually be to our advantage because they would have to factor that into their kills.

You guys says that it's better to keep it secret, but if the wolves are choosing someone like shash every night with NO hope of them ever using their picks then that hurts us. Make the wolves help us, make them try to slip up, make them make a choice!!! Don't keep things simple so they just do whatever is pretty much expected. Make it complex with levels so something can be learned.

I mean some people have said that talisman was an expected kill. AP, tass, blah would be EXPECTED kills. So you would gain nothing and you would essentially be randomly guessing every day on who the wolves would be. You would attach some BS logic, (or maybe it is justifeid, but is it right?) and bank every vote on, "I think he's wolf." I would prefer something else.

Obviously if nothing is done, the wolves will look at every single player in this game as free reign IMO. A LOT of people here are worthy of a guard and the wolves could easily say to themselves, "well everyone has the same chance of being guarded." But if some people are KNOWN to be harder to kill than others, it may make the wolves second guess it. Which, again is more information the wolves would be telling us.

Yes I said doubt is good but it's only good when applied to an alternate choice. If the wolves assume that any good kill they could think of is a risk then they will just go with who they want regardless. But raise the risk on someone and wolf tendency would be to go for the less riskier player.

[Omeganitros]

Re: TWG XXXV - Knick It In The Bud

nm, I'm retarded.

[Tasselfoot]

Re: TWG XXXV - Knick It In The Bud

that actually is true flypie. this is a case where I'd feel the reward outweighs the risk. at least 50% shot of it working, if not more. i honestly felt MOST people would guard me, given that i had died 3 straight night 1s... so logic would say i'd be most likely again. and then if it does work... pretty much insta-win. if it doesn't, then all i've done is died night 1 again, and it is no big loss, since i'm not really into twg at that point, as i didn't get to play for like 4 straight games already. so what would be 1 more?

10 bucks on either ap or fish being a wolf though. both are coming on way too strong at me, with little to no evidence. especially for fish... don't recall him being like this; usually analytical, not "lol... u dun live, boy! nows u die!".

not one thing i've said has not been the best strategy, nor will it at any point this game. me wolfing myself would have been best strat had i been a wolf... and everything relating towards cypher and the vigi has been accurate. i really can't justify things beyond that.

it is practically comical that all of this has spawned out of the fact that i didn't die night 1. 14 other people didn't die night 1 too, y'know. AND, nobody is looking at anyone else... wolves have gotta be laughing their asses off right about now.

[Tasselfoot]

Re: TWG XXXV - Knick It In The Bud

also... i can't remember which game... but i KNOW there was a previous game where i said the same exact thing. something like, "man... if i'm a wolf, i'd attack myself night 1." i would up not being a wolf, and i remember people saying the same thing flypie said then.

wish i could recall which game that was. either way, my whole comments about NEVER sacrificing a wolf... well, maybe my way of being dramatic, as i have a tendency to be. and generally the strats people are using in those instances were i say they are stupid are extremely high risk vs high reward situations. i definately felt this would have been a medium to low risk situation vs high reward.

[Omeganitros]

Re: TWG XXXV - Knick It In The Bud

Wolf1: Heh. Well, looks like Day 1 will be a human lynch without a hitch.
Wolf2: Yeah, srsly. Who would have thought not going for him would create so much crap?
Wolf3: Not us. Never took it into consideration.

true convo guys i haxed teh chat


It's good to have such a nice Day 1, seriously. I'm looking at other people, I just don't want to speak up, because I'm not good at playing the offensive.

iggy: I like the "PM Cypher lottery" idea. Really like it.

[Afrobean]

Re: TWG XXXV - Knick It In The Bud

And the humans can ensure that wolves are at least putting votes on good picks and rule out the "3 wasted guardian picks" every night.

Or lie about it.

Duh.

You can't make the wolves do jack crap. They'll just lie.

So you would gain nothing and you would essentially be randomly guessing every day on who the wolves would be. You would attach some BS logic, (or maybe it is justifeid, but is it right?) and bank every vote on, "I think he's wolf." I would prefer something else.

That's what every game is like. Stabs in the dark with reasoning that may or may not be justified. The "something else" you refer to is blue help (ie seer, psychic, guardian).

There are a few posts I skipped, so I apologize if someone already jumped on iggy for that. Don't really have time to read them. I'll catch up on them later.

[iggymatrixcounter]

Re: TWG XXXV - Knick It In The Bud

Or lie about it.

Duh.

You can't make the wolves do jack crap. They'll just lie.

Yea because when wolves lie about something they did/are they always get away with it.

That's what every game is like. Stabs in the dark with reasoning that may or may not be justified. The "something else" you refer to is blue help (ie seer, psychic, guardian).

So uh what do you expect to be talking about two days from now that wouldn't have been discussed today since you don't have blue help?

Whatever, this is just making me mad. Good luck with this "alliance strategy" that you guys have. I mean it's a good start but three days from now it will be the same and nothing new. Where will the activity come from?

But that's just my opinion I guess.

[Afrobean]

Re: TWG XXXV - Knick It In The Bud

Yea because when wolves lie about something they did/are they always get away with it.

I guarded Talisman last night. My draw just didn't win lol.

See how easy it is to lie? I easily could have said "I voted for Tass last night" BECAUSE IF THE DRAW DOESN'T WIN IT DOESN'T MATTER

So uh what do you expect to be talking about two days from now that wouldn't have been discussed today since you don't have blue help?

Whatever, this is just making me mad. Good luck with this "alliance strategy" that you guys have. I mean it's a good start but three days from now it will be the same and nothing new. Where will the activity come from?

But that's just my opinion I guess.

posting who everyone voted for during the night != activity

In the end, it comes down to the people. The people alive will either be active or not. The only thing we can do is hope that activity doesn't faulter in the later days. Saying "dur let's post who we voted for because that means we're active" is bogus. I'm sure you know as well as I do that if people hear "post who you voted for to guard" they will post who they voted for to guard AND NOTHING ELSE.