View Full Version : TWG VIII (The Matrix Has You) Day 4
Squeek
January 5th, 2005, 02:16 PM
If you like to skip the story, or even if you enjoy it, please be sure to read my rules for this game. There are very important changes.
"Ladies and Gentlemen we...have a problem." Commander Lock says as he approaches a group of 18 Zion citizens.
"Of course we have a problem, Commander. You've locked 18 people in a small building with no explanation. What other possibility is there?" says somebody in the back in a low tone so as to not be heard.
"I'll try to ignore that comment and get right down to business. We have discovered a mole within our own crewmembers. Four moles, to be precise."
"What are you talking about? How could there be a mole with only one city left on Earth?" chardish asks of the Commander.
"It's a very complex situation, so please listen carefully and do not interrupt. As you all may or may not know, Neo successfully destroyed an Agent over a year ago. This agent was none other than Agent Smith. However, it had recently been discovered that Agent Smith was in fact alive and, due to a glitch in the Matrix, now has the ability to replicate himself as many times as he pleases. Since this information has been revealed, it must also be known that he has successfully stolen the bodies of four of the people standing in this room today."
"How can you know all that and not even know who they are?" questions Lupin_the_3rd.
"Our bio-scan systems managed to pick up the signals of the four individuals, but consequently became hacked into and rendered useless before it was able to target the said individuals; most likely to have been caused by the four themselves. We no longer have the time or the resources to manage to remove the virus from the machine. We have decided to leave this up to you.
"Leave it up to us? What, you want us all to kill each other?" Kilgamayan jokingly queries.
"Yes, as a matter of fact. You are all supposed to be the brightest and strongest in the world, so we are leaving this up to you. Nobody knows any of the 18 of you as well as you all do. Your objective is to find the agents among you posing as humans and destroy them before they destroy you. During this time period, absolutely NOBODY is to jack into the Matrix. We cannot have this spread any further."
"So we're basically going to just sit here and hope our comrades trust us enough to know that we're not agents. Is that correct?" CypherToorima asks.
"Yes, that's the basis of the entire procedure."
"How are we going to manage this without any help?" nforcer06164 says, a bit worried of his own safety.
"You are going to be getting help in this endeavor. Thank you for reminding me. We have enlisted the help of the Oracle herself, who will come to one person every night and reveal information about the daytime decision. Seraph has agreed to assist another individual by giving them the ability to protect one person every time an agent might strike. And, the bonds between the crew of the Nebuchadnezzer are so great that the four of them trust one another completely."
"Hearing that the Oracle is going to help us is a huge relief!" exclaims Kefit.
"Through wise decisions and intelligent conversations, I'm sure you'll pull through just fine. You all must understand the complexity of this situation and, as such, it is likely you will not be removed from this location until we have verified the removal of the four agent moles."
"Wait, if the machine is broken, how are you going to tell?" inquiries Alainbryden.
"The machine only broke due to the presence of the agents in the first place. Once the final agent has been eliminated, the virus in the machine will be dissipated and we can let you free. Get working, citizens of Zion. You have four among you who will never be the same and must be destroyed."
The commander leaves and allows the group to converse among themselves. After half an hour of chatter, the conversation is still relatively the same.
"This is the worst possible time for this to happen. We're in the middle of a war for our very survival!" explains blahblah18.
"What else could possibly go wrong?" says JurseyRider734.
Of course, just as she says this, the power in the building is shut off and the room the 18 are in is flooded with darkness.
"What's going on? I can't even see my own hands!" says Tps222 in a flustered tone.
"The agents among us must have somehow cut the power to the building. We're sitting ducks until we can get this fixed. Since nobody can be trusted right now, we need to all get to the circuit breaker and see what we can do," suggests roopert.
--------------
PMs will be distributed with a codename and detailed instructions as to what role you will be playing. The codename MUST NOT EVER be told to ANYONE else UNLESS it is one of the Nebuchadnezzar crew or the agents. Revealing your codename means "YOU LOSE". If someone cheats and you see it happen, please contact me on AIM. I will not tolerate cheating, so ANY person caught cheating, agent or human, is INSTALYNCHED the day of the incident. No questions asked. Every PM is different, so don't even TRY to fake it, OK? I'll know.
The players:
Afrobean
Alainbryden
blahblah18
chardish
CypherToorima
evilbutterfly
flypie743
Kefit
Kilgamayan
lightdarkness
JurseyRider734
Lupin_the_3rd
M-A-C
nforcer06164
roopert
Tps222
Tsuteto
whorlichan
I typed your usernames exactly as they appear. No whining about capitalization. Maybe you should have capitalized it when you signed up.
Also, to reiterate for the slow, the story has nothing to do with the people's own words. Do not take anything in the story at face value.
-----------
RULES:
1) I disallow moderators to moderate this thread in any way until I request their assistance. I will probably rely on the non-playing Tasselfoot to do so ONLY AFTER I tell him to do so. If he is not on, I go to the next best. If any moderator locks the topic without my consent, you are instalynched the next day and face a sentence from the jury. I'm not going to be lenient on this at all.
2) If there is an instalynch, it is verified, and I am not there to pick it up, all votes after the instalynch vote are null / void. All conversation about the game is to come to a complete stop.
3) If you are dead, YOU ARE DEAD. I won't allow a "death" post because YOU ARE DEAD. You no longer exist and, as such, cannot talk amongst the living. AIM conversation about TWG is not tolerated. I encourage those that the dead converse with to talk with me. I have worked out a method of proof, but you have to leave the window open, OK?
4) Instalynch = 50+% of the votes. 4/8 is not an instalynch. 5/9 is. Instalynches occur anytime the person being voted upon receives that one vote that pushes them over the 50% line. If you have one vote under the instalynch line and you have a phantom, you lose. Phantoms are explained in #6.
5) If I find out you are cheating with indisputable evidence (IE: someone else knows the exact content of your PM that isn't on your team (Neb, agents)), you are GONE. I will not tolerate cheating of any sort. Nobody except teammates should know about the contents of a PM because I will not use automation to generate them. In fact, there will be less than a 50% difference to prevent an auto-comparison program to locate the similarities (i.e.: Moss (http://www.cs.berkeley.edu/~aiken/moss.html)).
6) Phantom votes occur when you do not vote in a full day. A full day is a day that does not end in instalynch. Phantom votes carry over from the day of the occurrence to the end of your time in the game. It is HIGHLY recommended that you vote every round to avoid a Phantom.
7) Just out of pure fun, I'd like to remind you all that there are no wolves in Zion. Just thousands of citizens and 4 agents. Calling someone a "wolf" essentially does nothing for you, since there are none.
(Note - I'm not going to be strict on this one. It just bothers me.)
Eight) Random rules - You are not allowed to make fake AIM screennames to impersonate other people. You are not allowed to use special moderator privileges to gain an advantage. I'll add more as I think of them.
These rules are strict because many people enjoy breaking them.
The roles, to reiterate, are:
Psychic - Has the ability to determine the outcome of the previous day's voting. If the lynched person was human, the Psychic is told "human". If the lynched person was an agent, the Psychic is told "agent". It's quite simple and does not require a nightly PM to me.
Guardian - Has the ability to protect one person every night from a killing. The guardian cannot protect himself. If the Guardian successfully protects someone, the following day's story proves that the protected person had tried to have been killed the night before, but will not reveal the Guardian.
Masons - 4 people that know each other from the beginning. They have no special ability other than knowing who all the other masons are right from the start.
Agents (wolves) - The bad guys. The agents choose a target every night to kill without consequence. If your target and the Guardian's target match, the kill is unsuccessful and made public.
Thus ends the pre-game. Initial game post occurs when the roles give me their choices and time passes to fit a proper game schedule (i.e.: we're not going to have it end at 8:00AM on a Saturday morning, LD. Not when people go to BED at 5:00AM Saturday morning. OK?)
Day one will last for 48 hours and each subsequent day lasts 36. I think I will have a time schedule set up for this game. My initial plan is 10AM EST starts the daytime and 10PM EST the following day ends it. This is MORE than enough time to cast your vote and catch up with the thread. Day one might be 10PM to 10PM, unless I can think of something better.
IT IS NOW NIGHT ONE. I will send out PMs shortly, and once I do, I need your choices for tonight, agents and guardian.
Feel free to PM or AIM me with any questions you might have. My AIM screen name is on the bottom of my posts, but I will state it here anyway. Contact me at "Stop Drop And Di". There is no "e" because AIM used to only allow 13 characters.
~Squeek
PS - All of the PMs have different messages in every line even though the format is similar for each one. I made the PS different for EVERY person, but I feel it should restated once again.
DO NOT reveal your role or your secret codename to anybody in the game or you'll essentially lose the game.
Squeek
January 5th, 2005, 09:01 PM
The group of 18 scurried along the unknown territory that lay before them in the abandoned building. Nobody had a clue where anything in the building was, let along the circuit box.
"Just stay together. We'll all be fine if we stick together," reminds Afro of the group.
"Yea, we'll be fine, but we'll never find the circuit box at the rate we're going." says Jursey.
"Should we consider breaking into two groups? I mean, a group of 9 people is still safe, right?" asks Roopert.
"I guess that would be alright. All in favor?" says Alainbryden.
A small shuffling noise can be heard from the group.
"Umm, guys? You do know we can't count hands, right?" Lupin jokingly inquires. Though, it seems he was right on the money with his statement.
"Ok, how about THIS time, you say "AYE" if you are in favor of splitting into two groups. All in favor?"
A resounding chorus of "AYEs" erupts from the room. It seems as though everybody wants to get to that box and get some real artificial light into the building as soon as possible.
"All opposed?" The room is silent.
"Alright, we'll break into two groups. We'll go left, you guys go right."
After searching around for the next half hour, the first group finally manages to return the lights to normal.
"Finally! Hey, wait, why is everyone here?" asks Kilga.
"It seems the two rooms join together again right here." replies Nforcer.
"Well, we can finally figure out the schematics of the place. Let's start exploring." Tsuteto states.
It wasn't even five minutes before somebody stumbles across the body of roopert. His neck had been cleanly sliced and a bloody knife and glove were sitting right on his chest.
"Who did this?! Come forward!" screams out LD, obviously upset over the loss of his closest comrade. Of course nobody steps forward to take the blame.
"If this is the way it's going to be, we'd better get started on taking out the agents in this room right away." says evilbutterfly as the rest of the group enters the room.
Voting begins now. This "day" in the story (which is actually less than an hour) will last for 48 hours, meaning on Friday, at 10:00pm EST FFR time (this was posted at 10:00pm EST FFR time today), voting will end. Instalynch can occur at anytime when there are 9 votes on a single person.
Here are your options.
Afrobean
Alainbryden
blahblah18
chardish
CypherToorima
evilbutterfly
flypie743
Kefit
Kilgamayan
lightdarkness
JurseyRider734
Lupin_the_3rd
M-A-C
nforcer06164
Tps222
Tsuteto
whorlichan
Choose well.
Also, I had added a rule to the list that I do not think needs to be added, but a certain somebody tipped me off as to this method of potential cheating.
~Squeek
PS - The story probably sounds like all the people in the Matrix are weak, but you have to understand that when these people aren't jacked in, they're just ordinary people. They don't have any superpowers of any kind (this happens before the end of the movie, kthx) and are likely afraid of dying from the Smiths.
lightdarkness
January 5th, 2005, 09:03 PM
Used same method as I did at BMS TWG, randomly highlighted someones name. Kefit
Will change if there is any evidence.
alainbryden
January 5th, 2005, 09:07 PM
Get over it ld, that's not a valid method at all, especially when you announce it's a method. Stop randomly voting. It starts stupid trends and gets humans randomly lynched.
lightdarkness
January 5th, 2005, 09:08 PM
Get over it ld, that's not a valid method at all, especially when you announce it's a method. Stop randomly voting. It starts stupid trends and gets humans randomly lynched.
Um, every day 1 is random. Would you rather me change my vote and not say how I came up with it?
Tps222
January 5th, 2005, 09:09 PM
Yes, but what else do we have to go off of other then who was connected with roopert.
blahblah18
January 5th, 2005, 09:11 PM
ahh this will be fun , i can tell already... random voting in general is stupid... you cna see hwo there was no voting forever in I think it was TWG V or VI... cuz we had learned.. on the toher hand LD always makes the first post and always randomizes it.. i'd be suspicious with anything else... just remember this people a "random" vote may not be as random as you think
JurseyRider734
January 5th, 2005, 09:11 PM
Can't really tell yet, so i'm just picking someone who didn't talk. I vote M-A-C
Squeek
January 5th, 2005, 09:11 PM
For (crazy) people looking for random votes, or people wondering how I picked the roles and speaking parts, consult
www.random.org
for more details. I did not select anything on my own. I just generated 18 numbers in some kind of order and refreshed a bunch of times without looking, then did my thing.
~Squeek
lightdarkness
January 5th, 2005, 09:14 PM
ahh this will be fun , i can tell already... random voting in general is stupid... you cna see hwo there was no voting forever in I think it was TWG V or VI... cuz we had learned.. on the toher hand LD always makes the first post and always randomizes it.. i'd be suspicious with anything else... just remember this people a "random" vote may not be as random as you think
I also change it 80 times :-P
Also, very suspicious of a comment Alain just made to me on AIM, don't know what to think of it yet.
alainbryden
January 5th, 2005, 09:16 PM
Oh yes ld, very suspicious...
lightdarkness42: HEY YOU!
NEIGH006: hey dude
NEIGH006: :P
lightdarkness42: Whats up?
NEIGH006: not much
lightdarkness42: You so mean :'(
lightdarkness42: Wolf boy
NEIGH006: oh I know,
NEIGH006: hah
NEIGH006: about that
NEIGH006: tell squeek thanks for giving me a non-special role for the first game yet
lightdarkness42: That has to be the stupidest comment I've seen you make
NEIGH006: the one I just posted
NEIGH006: not at all
lightdarkness42: Stop Drop and Di: Tell him "roflcopter".
NEIGH006: you're strategy has to be the stupidest strategy in the world
lightdarkness42: I'm not a n00b
lightdarkness42: I know what i'm doing
NEIGH006: I know, but it's still dumb
lightdarkness42: not really
NEIGH006: I think os every time you do it
lightdarkness42: I would tell you my strat
NEIGH006: it's just so pointlesss
lightdarkness42: but, you could be a wolf
NEIGH006: you have no special strategy
lightdarkness42: Um, yes I do
NEIGH006: you think it'll make people cry out about your random voting and say weird things
lightdarkness42: Exactly
NEIGH006: but it's so obvious wolves wouldn't fall for anything weird like that
NEIGH006: unless they're noob
oh my
lightdarkness
January 5th, 2005, 09:17 PM
Uhh, IMO, yes.
alainbryden
January 5th, 2005, 09:18 PM
Well luckily you're only one stupid random vote and the fate of the humans don't rest in your say or we would be doomed.
CypherToorima
January 5th, 2005, 09:18 PM
XD
NEIGH006: you're strategy has to be the stupidest strategy in the world
[...]
NEIGH006: you think it'll make people cry out about your random voting and say weird things
lightdarkness42: Exactly
NEIGH006: but it's so obvious wolves wouldn't fall for anything weird like that
NEIGH006: unless they're noob
way to make yourself look like a noob
The only thing I edited was put in the first sentence.
evilbutterfly
January 5th, 2005, 09:19 PM
YAY! I'M ALIVE! Let's see if I can make it past Night 2 this time, haha. Oh, and thanks for not doing anything to my name and keeping it as I have it: not capitalized.
LD's randavote woud seem suspicious, but he always does that. Anywho, so who knew roopert? I think he's one of those ones that I always forget about because he has no avatar. I may be wrong though, *shrug*
lightdarkness
January 5th, 2005, 09:20 PM
Alain, I have done this all 7 previous games (Maybe with the exception of 1), why are you making such a big deal out of it this time around?
CypherToorima
January 5th, 2005, 09:23 PM
Remember what he said about 'only noobs would make a big deal out of random voting'?
:P
alainbryden
January 5th, 2005, 09:24 PM
stfu :P
and correct "you're strategy is stupid" with "your"
other than that stfu :P
Anyways, it was a test <_<
evilbutterfly
January 5th, 2005, 09:25 PM
7 games and won how many, LD? Randomly voting (especially when saying that's what you're doing) will not ilicit responses.
But enough about LD, who hangs out with roopert!?
Lupin_the_3rd
January 5th, 2005, 09:25 PM
Yes, but what else do we have to go off of other then who was connected with roopert.
I don't even know who roopert is, nevermind know who he was associated with...
Therefore, I think a random vote is valid for now. This is subject to change, however. Kilgamayan, you can be my temporary wolf.
By the way, LD and Alain really just looked like humans from that. No wolf comes out this early and make a scene.
evilbutterfly
January 5th, 2005, 09:27 PM
No wolf comes out this early and make a scene.
Game 5 Alain accused me of being a wolf and went at it hardcore for a while until I "convinced him otherwise." He was the master wolf.
blahblah18
January 5th, 2005, 09:28 PM
EB stole my words
alainbryden
January 5th, 2005, 09:28 PM
I like lupey's logic more :P
CypherToorima
January 5th, 2005, 09:29 PM
Didn't roopert have three pips?
Looks to me like a strong kill with little suspision.
Lupin_the_3rd
January 5th, 2005, 09:29 PM
hmm
well it would seem counter-intuitive that a wolf would go through that much trouble to be noticed...
I've only followed the last 3 TWGs
alainbryden
January 5th, 2005, 09:31 PM
Isn't ld one of those people who like never start AIM conversations for TWG? o_O
Tps222
January 5th, 2005, 09:31 PM
How can you like his logic alain, he random voted just like ld, but your not getting on his case just because he said you look human. I personaly don't think your a wolf, but please make up your mind on a topic.
evilbutterfly
January 5th, 2005, 09:32 PM
Nobody would think a wolf would come forward and try to be noticed, so they do it. Reverse psychology? Something like that. Do what is so expected that it's unexpected.
Also, isn't LD one of those people who "never IMs somebody first, but only responds when IMed"? If so, him IMing Alain and calling him wolf is a bit suspicious. Not enough to vote on yet, though.
CypherToorima
January 5th, 2005, 09:32 PM
@lupin: t's not hard to be noticed, it's hard to fly under the radar
still, I don't count loud people out.
Lupin_the_3rd
January 5th, 2005, 09:32 PM
EDIT: (damn you guys post fast)
Isn't ld one of those people who like never start AIM conversations for TWG? o_O
Anyways, it was a test <_<
alainbryden
January 5th, 2005, 09:36 PM
Isn't ld one of those people who like never start AIM conversations for TWG? o_OAnyways, it was a test <_<
no, that was blah...
mastr414: test
NEIGH006: *pong*
mastr414: why are you blocking me?
NEIGH006: I'm not lol
NEIGH006: oops I'm invisible
mastr414: ... oops ;-)
NEIGH006: thurr
evilbutterfly
January 5th, 2005, 09:38 PM
You can just look at their info. If it shows time online, they aren't really invisible, hehe.
Oh and alain, you have yet you fix the link under your posts to your AIM. Get rid of that damned underscore!!
alainbryden
January 5th, 2005, 09:40 PM
whoops fix'd.
flypie743
January 5th, 2005, 09:41 PM
Nothing to vote on, and I am not going to place a random vote.
I'm off to bed and will read the thread sometime tomorrow. :P
Lupin_the_3rd
January 5th, 2005, 09:43 PM
wow...I am really off today. What I meant to post, Alain:
How can you like his logic alain, he random voted just like ld, but your not getting on his case just because he said you look human. I personaly don't think your a wolf, but please make up your mind on a topic.
Anyways, it was a test <_<
Tsuteto
January 5th, 2005, 09:49 PM
Meh, can't think straight after a night of karate. I'll see what the standings are tomorrow.
alainbryden
January 5th, 2005, 09:53 PM
oo_O he's been honing his agent fighting skills with Karate. WOLF! I'm suspicious Tass hasn't come in yet to say "I'm a human, you can believe me or not but it's true!!!" oh wait... he isn't playing this one -_-
Tsuteto
January 5th, 2005, 09:56 PM
Sure... my real life shows through on the internet for this game...
Lupin_the_3rd
January 5th, 2005, 09:57 PM
By the way, don't vote me for having the latin root lup- in my name. It's agents, not wolves, this time : )
evilbutterfly
January 5th, 2005, 10:09 PM
And just because I'm an evil butterfly doesn't mean I'm an evil agent.
Seriously, where the hell are these comments coming from!?
I still have yet to know who roopert is friends with...
whorlichan
January 5th, 2005, 10:15 PM
Randomized voting thing: Flypie. Also, she's usually a little more vocal in TWGs. Sorry about my own silence; I have been out buying stuff for my new apartment and a car to get home in.
Yay for another TWG, I forgot how excited I get about these :)
alainbryden
January 5th, 2005, 10:19 PM
don't vote for me just because I have Alain in my name. I'm not really an evil frenchman like the dude in the matrix
blahblah18
January 5th, 2005, 10:19 PM
if only I could vote for all of you cuz you're all being idiots and I expect better.. come on now
evilbutterfly
January 5th, 2005, 10:25 PM
It's because Tass is gone and they're all like "omgosh, I don't know who to PM and tell I'm a special role, AH! I'LL JUST ACT LIKE AN IDIOT!!" jk, I hope.
But seriously, who likes roopert or who has he worked closely with in the past? I'm pretty sure he was pretty quiet in past games, which makes me really wonder why they would kill him. You'd think they'd kill vocal people to silence them, but I'm not really sure on roopert's past behavior (all the avatarless people blend together...sorry!).
alainbryden
January 5th, 2005, 10:29 PM
It'll all pay off. I have a feeling this is the best way to draw out the wolves. Hint, look for the most calm and collected. People who are usually more casual will start acting like blah. Blah's always like that though, so we can't hold it against him :P.
evilbutterfly
January 5th, 2005, 10:32 PM
How exactly is he acting that isn't casual? I don't quite understand, alain.
Tps222
January 5th, 2005, 10:36 PM
Im really confused, so i'm off to bed. Alain is talking in circles, half the people haven't said anything, or anything worth meaning, so hopefully by tommarrow there will be more evidence. Hasta manana mi amigos.
Lupin_the_3rd
January 5th, 2005, 11:01 PM
It'll all pay off. I have a feeling this is the best way to draw out the wolves. Hint, look for the most calm and collected. People who are usually more casual will start acting like blah. Blah's always like that though, so we can't hold it against him :P.
That's pretty much what I told Tps:
Legat0bluesummrs: it's always ****ed up like that
Legat0bluesummrs: humans act like wolves, and wolves act like humans
That's what it always looks like to me.
blahblah18
January 5th, 2005, 11:05 PM
ok so here goes some real opening analysis as opposed to the bullcrap going on so far...
Why Roopert?
A) Wolves are all jTWGers and newbies: they do a little research, look in the siggy sticky and see roopert has 3 pips... they've prob never heard of him and so don't fear a guardianing, and thus make their choice to not alert any suspicion anywheres
B) wolves are all the best players , and after taking out people with a chance to be guardianed, roopert was the highest man left on the totem...
I don't know, that coudl be all crazy, but it shows that you shoudl at least start putting some thoguht into your posts people
evilbutterfly
January 5th, 2005, 11:15 PM
That's what I was thinking. We do have some newbers playing, or may be there was a PMing accident again XD
Lupin_the_3rd
January 5th, 2005, 11:16 PM
well, blah, seeing as there are 4 wolves, option B seems more likely. There is most likely at least one veteran of TWG playing as a wolf. The jTWG/noobs look up to him, he becomes the leader wolf, and does what you explained in option B. However, it is still likely that 4 noobs got placed as wolves.
alainbryden
January 5th, 2005, 11:19 PM
There would probably have to be at least one good player out of the 4 wolves, but that theory probably works either way. In history, though, it doesn't help much to identify why whoever got wolfed first did. It's usually just what you said, the best possible player that wouldn't be considered for guardianing. It doesn't really give away anything as to who the wolves could be. I think the best strategy is to vote for whoever is not talking the first night, which is always a fair enough strategy, because there's always one or two wolves that are hesitant to talk much, and then after that the real information always comes from watching how people react to who is getting lynched and for what reasons.
evilbutterfly
January 5th, 2005, 11:29 PM
Honestly, I'm surprised they didn't wolf me. I'm loud-mouthed but not good enough to be guardianed. I would have killed me to shut me up, because talking more leads to wolf discovery, usually.
chardish
January 6th, 2005, 01:56 AM
Honestly, I'm surprised they didn't wolf me.
This is the second time you've mentioned that. You also started belaboring the obvious in the form of expressing suspicions right off the bat, when there was really nothing to go by. You also mentioned that you always forget about Roopert, while insinuating that the culprit was someone who had ties to him. This method of thinking - killing someone who trusts someone else - has been done twice - it is not the modus operandi for first-night kills. And you've been through enough TWGs to understand that.
Looking through the handy-dandy history I see you've never been a wolf before. When I found out in Game IV I was a wolf one of the hardest things for me was to begin the act - once you start the stream of lies, it's easy to continue, but it's hard to establish an initial character.
I'm somewhat suspicious that you're a wolf and you're having a bit of difficulty with that. I'm not confident, but my Magic 8-Ball™ has just informed me that Signs Point To Yes. Evilbutterfly.
Squeek
January 6th, 2005, 02:42 AM
Random Host moment in the spotlight.
Just about 6 hours in, but hardly anybody has said anything relevant at all. I know it's day one, but what's with the "omg don't take my username for serious I'm not an agent" thing?
Carry on.
~Squeek
flypie743
January 6th, 2005, 06:09 AM
Randomized voting thing: Flypie. Also, she's usually a little more vocal in TWGs. Sorry about my own silence; I have been out buying stuff for my new apartment and a car to get home in.
Yay for another TWG, I forgot how excited I get about these :)
Nothing to vote on, and I am not going to place a random vote.
I'm off to bed and will read the thread sometime tomorrow. :P
Well, I don't think I could've been vocal if I was asleep.
alainbryden
January 6th, 2005, 07:22 AM
omg it's back
Tps222
January 6th, 2005, 08:01 AM
Nforcer06164. My vote goes soley off that I want to see him talk.
Kilgamayan
January 6th, 2005, 08:12 AM
Holy ****, we don't have 13 pages yet. Must be a slow game.
I'm going to vote for alainbryden because I think he's dancing around in the spotlight too much. If he's an agent, then he's doing exactly what he should be doing by calling attention to himself. Every time someone makes a scene really early in the game people think "no agent would come out in the open this much this early in the game" so it's a nice cover.
Afrobean
January 6th, 2005, 08:34 AM
I hate having to go to bed at 10 o' clock on school nights, then not having the school the next day becuase of bad weather. Whatever, though. I'm here now.
Lupin's joke was actually pretty clever. His username "Lupin" comes from the Latin word Lupus, which means wolf. Everyone else ruined it by postwhoring like mad with lame copies of the joke.
That said, I really don't have much to say that hasn't already been said. Roopert was likely killed for not being likely to be guardianed. This is why if I were guardian, I'd guardian like the third most wanted by the wolves, because the wolves always stay away from the first couple of picks for fear of guardian. Also, about the newbs being agents thing, it would be like Alain said: at least one of the agents would be a good player and all the newbs would look up to them.
Also, I figured something out from jTWG; your random votes are truly useless. The only way to make them not useless is DON'T say it's random. Pull some sort of reasoning for it out of your ass. I will be abstaining from voting, though, because I know I can't get any reasoning for a vote on anyone, besides that they haven't posted. That's not fair to vote for them because of that yet though. Maybe they just had to go to bed (like me) then school.
alainbryden
January 6th, 2005, 09:31 AM
Thanks kilga, I was waiting for that. As long as a few of you are still thinking I'm a wolf trying some strange strategy, as long as there's a chance that people are suspicious enough to lynch me, I won't get wolfed. Why waste a wolfing on someone who's under public suspicion.
Tps222
January 6th, 2005, 09:36 AM
Why would you go out and tell everyone your strategy?
lightdarkness
January 6th, 2005, 10:00 AM
Thanks kilga, I was waiting for that. As long as a few of you are still thinking I'm a wolf trying some strange strategy, as long as there's a chance that people are suspicious enough to lynch me, I won't get wolfed. Why waste a wolfing on someone who's under public suspicion.
That kind of says to me... "Don't worry if I don't get wolfed, it's because they think the humans will lynch me"
Dunno, kinda saw that weridly.
blahblah18
January 6th, 2005, 10:03 AM
I gotta agree, thats kinda weird you would post something like that in the thread, be you human or wolf... But it almost sounds you're trying to justify reasons why you won't die at night other then being a wolf. It's just an odd comment to make to the thread and I hope you either write or tell me what the point is of saying something like that.
lightdarkness
January 6th, 2005, 10:17 AM
I mean, I don't know if he acted this way last game, because I was pretty much only talking to the masons and Tass, but please do explain, as blah has said, your reasoning for that comment.
alainbryden
January 6th, 2005, 10:32 AM
Point is simply, hopefully wolves think I'm acting suspicious enough that they wouldn't waste a wolfing on me, because I have the potential to get lynched. Same time hoping that enough humans are bright enough to know that there are better candidates for lynching.
It doesn't matter if I state my strategy, because doing so is in and of itslef suspicious enough to keep people thinking that I'm a wolf, whist assuring the brighter or more trustworthy players that there is method to my madness.
blahblah18
January 6th, 2005, 11:02 AM
so you're saying only stupid or untrustworthy players would vote for you?
Lupin_the_3rd
January 6th, 2005, 11:33 AM
Point is simply, hopefully wolves think I'm acting suspicious enough that they wouldn't waste a wolfing on me, because I have the potential to get lynched. Same time hoping that enough humans are bright enough to know that there are better candidates for lynching.
It doesn't matter if I state my strategy, because doing so is in and of itslef suspicious enough to keep people thinking that I'm a wolf, whist assuring the brighter or more trustworthy players that there is method to my madness.
you seem to be talking about not getting wolfed an awful lot...I wouldn't think that a human's worse fear would be getting wolfed, but then again, maybe you like to insure that you stay alive, at the expense of everyone else's suspicion of you, which draw away from the real wolves.
lightdarkness
January 6th, 2005, 11:38 AM
I'm kinda worried here.
Senario A: Alain is a wolf, trying to make people think it's ok he isn't getting wolfed.
Senario B: Alain is a huamn, and he is just digging himself into a whole, because now he probably WON'T get wolfed.
I'm tempted to change my vote to him, but I won't for a fear of him telling the truth.
Tps222
January 6th, 2005, 01:12 PM
Alain has a good point, but for now i am still stying with my nforcer untill he say something, he may be at school.
alainbryden
January 6th, 2005, 01:59 PM
you're right ld, I'm doing this insuring that I don't get wolfed, because some people will be suspicious of me. You're too lupin, worst fear is getting wolfed, and by having you all suspicious of me, a wolf would be stupid to get rid of me when I'm at suck high risk of misleading humans. Hint, don't be mislead. The best part about this strategy is that by saying it, It doesn't render it obsolete.
blahblah18
January 6th, 2005, 02:10 PM
now yet again he's saying "ok guys if anyone votes for me lets bandwagon him cuz he must be a wolf!" how ridiculous...
Kefit
January 6th, 2005, 02:14 PM
Point is simply, hopefully wolves think I'm acting suspicious enough that they wouldn't waste a wolfing on me, because I have the potential to get lynched. Same time hoping that enough humans are bright enough to know that there are better candidates for lynching.
It doesn't matter if I state my strategy, because doing so is in and of itslef suspicious enough to keep people thinking that I'm a wolf, whist assuring the brighter or more trustworthy players that there is method to my madness.
I remember Alain trying to use this same exact strategy in TWG VI (an attempt to establish this strategy was the main purpose of the disasterous chat that I referred to in that game). Turned out he was a human in that game. His plan may have even worked too, had we all not lynched him the day he suggested it >_>
However, even if the strategy is the same this game, I find it odd that he is throwing it out right now. In game VI he had publically announced the fact that he was guardian, and the strategy was a direct attempt to keep the wolves from killing him. This game, however, he hasn't really done anything except for his little scuffle with LD early on. Trying to use this strategy once more strikes me as just a bit prematurely defensive. I don't think that being defensive like this is nearly enough to label someone as a wolf, but I do think that it is a likely indicator that Alian has a special role.
alainbryden
January 6th, 2005, 02:18 PM
in my last strategy I thought I could guard myself :P that was my first game.
evilbutterfly
January 6th, 2005, 02:28 PM
Chardish, I always do that. I ramble on about what I can see, hoping may be I'll say something that gives smarter players ideas on who a wolf may be. I pick up on things sometimes, but I'm not quite intuitive enough to put together the pieces and figure people out. It always gets me a vote on Day 1, too (if I remember correctly).
And I didn't (had to stop writing here this morning because I might have missed the bus otherwise, but I shall continue without reading others' posts first) mean to say that his friends killed him, but that knowing what connections he had may help us figure out some things. We know that roopert doesn't talk a whole lot, but may be he talks a lot (over AIM) to vocal players? I can't remember my train of thought from this morning, but I had perfect reasons and I've forgotten them through the course of schooling and such. If I remember later I will post.
In the end, I mostly just want to have as much info about who died as possible. In the post-game we'll probably see that he was just "the least likely to be guardianed" as that seems to be the new trend, but you never know. May be the wolves put more thought into it this time?
nforcer06164
January 6th, 2005, 02:44 PM
Sorry, I would've posted last night, but I didn't have time last night. Had a lot to do before having to go to school today... but that's not important.
To me it seems that alain is trying to take the issue of being comfortable with being vocal when human and reversing it on other people. I have the feeling that he's using it as a strategy to keep himself from getting lynched, although he's pushing the topic a little too much. Lupin's logic makes me even more suspicious of alain.
I'm also a little suspicious of Kefit. I don't have enough to go on him yet, but why would his first post be just to defend alain's "strategy"? He notes how the early defensive is suspicious, yet denies believing he may be a wolf. That strikes me as being somewhat odd....
evilbutterfly seems pretty genuine to me, but that's just what I think....
Maybe my vote will change if I see something else in the next few hours.
M-A-C
January 6th, 2005, 02:45 PM
Hey guys, school was rough. I'm just going to say alainbryden for now. He seems very suspicious.
evilbutterfly
January 6th, 2005, 02:50 PM
Quit bandwagoning, guys. Not that alain seems completely human, but we shouldn't jump on him and instalynch. Instalynches are BAD FOR HUMANS!! More time to figure people out come if you don't bandwagon, so either switch your votes to someone else or just stop bandwagoning, seriously.
alainbryden
January 6th, 2005, 02:54 PM
I know MAC is new, but even then, no wolf would bandwagon so blatantly. It's such bad advertisement. He's also not experienced enough to try to pull of being a wolf and trying to fake human by being so noobish. So mac, as far as I'm concerned, is human. I'm more suspicious of nforcer for trying to reason it out. :)
nforcer06164
January 6th, 2005, 02:59 PM
Well, my plan really was to not vote early, but alain's posts are making me really uneasy. He may be redoubling his strategy, but it doesn't seem right to me. What really got me was his post on the third page (the last one there). It seems like he's trying to direct attention to other people, like, "Look for these guys!"
Like I said, if I see something else that shocks me as seriously odd, I might change my vote. But otherwise, I'm sticking with alain.
alainbryden
January 6th, 2005, 03:03 PM
yay, everyone has showed themselves
M-A-C
January 6th, 2005, 03:05 PM
Quit bandwagoning, guys. Not that alain seems completely human, but we shouldn't jump on him and instalynch. Instalynches are BAD FOR HUMANS!! More time to figure people out come if you don't bandwagon, so either switch your votes to someone else or just stop bandwagoning, seriously.
I'm sorry if I am bandwagoning, but it's still early in the game. I usually change my vote 1 to 3 times during 1 night. I just think he sounds suspicious. In fact, if it gets 1 vote away from instalynch I'll end up changing my vote cause I'm not sure he's a wolf yet.
alainbryden
January 6th, 2005, 03:07 PM
What 'shocks me as seriously odd' is that you're jumping on people for trying to support their arguments and ignore stupid people who agree with you for the wrong reasons *see below your post*. Maybe you should vote for yourself?
PS kilga, chardish, mac, nforcer, jursey, whorlican, 1 post, 1 vote. Yay
I'm not implying anything. some of you supported it well.lazy unparticipative...
M-A-C
January 6th, 2005, 03:13 PM
What 'shocks me as seriously odd' is that you're jumping on people for trying to support their arguments and ignore stupid people who agree with you for the wrong reasons *see below your post*. Maybe you should vote for yourself?
What would seem even more odd is changing my vote for no reason. I already said there's a good chance I'm going to vote for someone else, but not until I have a good reason.
JurseyRider734
January 6th, 2005, 03:43 PM
I hate having to go to bed at 10 o' clock on school nights, then not having the school the next day becuase of bad weather. Whatever, though. I'm here now.
Lupin's joke was actually pretty clever. His username "Lupin" comes from the Latin word Lupus, which means wolf. Everyone else ruined it by postwhoring like mad with lame copies of the joke.
That said, I really don't have much to say that hasn't already been said. Roopert was likely killed for not being likely to be guardianed. This is why if I were guardian, I'd guardian like the third most wanted by the wolves, because the wolves always stay away from the first couple of picks for fear of guardian. Also, about the newbs being agents thing, it would be like Alain said: at least one of the agents would be a good player and all the newbs would look up to them.
Also, I figured something out from jTWG; your random votes are truly useless. The only way to make them not useless is DON'T say it's random. Pull some sort of reasoning for it out of your ass. I will be abstaining from voting, though, because I know I can't get any reasoning for a vote on anyone, besides that they haven't posted. That's not fair to vote for them because of that yet though. Maybe they just had to go to bed (like me) then school.
I so told him that. I IM'd him and I was like 'You're a wolf/agent because your username starts with Lupin. Like professor R. J. Lupin from Harry Potter. He was a werewolf' or something along those lines.
Props to Lupin for giving me credit for telling him that. Stupid idiot.
Lupin_the_3rd
January 6th, 2005, 03:47 PM
so am I voted for because my name is bolded? :)
nforcer06164
January 6th, 2005, 03:53 PM
How can he be a werewolf? No werewolves are in this game....
Hey wait....
Who is Lupin the 3rd, really? Nobody knows for sure. Is he possibly a secret agent...? Oh noes!
All this bantering is really getting us nowhere, though.... this arguing is starting to make me wonder... I don't think wolves would fight back and forth so agressively. Unless it's being staged.
JurseyRider734
January 6th, 2005, 03:58 PM
so am I voted for because my name is bolded? :)
Uh. no. I was bolding the whole line, that means I wanted it to stand out from the rest....retard.
Lupin_the_3rd
January 6th, 2005, 03:59 PM
All this bantering is really getting us nowhere, though.... this arguing is starting to make me wonder... I don't think wolves would fight back and forth so agressively
I think you're dissecting this a little too much...it was a joke :roll:
blahblah18
January 6th, 2005, 04:05 PM
morons, all of you, jurs feel like posting something useful?
JurseyRider734
January 6th, 2005, 04:28 PM
Useful? Well, probably not.
Lupin says he thinks that wolves(or agents, in this case) wouldn't come out so agressively (see alainbryden), unless he thinks that we will all think that he wouldn't do such a thing using some kind of reverse-reverse psychology. Lupin says he doesn't think alain would pull that on noobs at the game, but he's probably just looking for an easy way to not be thought of as an agent. I'm suspicious of alain, but im not bandwagoning and voting for him because I don't know enough about him yet.
Afrobean
January 6th, 2005, 04:37 PM
jurs feel like posting something useful?
I don't think jurs is the only one guilty of useless posting here. So far everyone has either posted too little for me to guess about them, seem to be human, or are just a little suspicious (Alain). I'm not necessarily saying I think Alain is a wolf, I just think he's acting pretty weird and that everyone should keep an eye on him. Also, I noticed something about Alain while talking with blah: Alain has been a wolf two times before and he never acted like that in those times. Odds are he's a human this time and he's using a poor technique that will likely get him lynch'd.
Tasselfoot
January 6th, 2005, 04:43 PM
Whorli's internet is acting up (which is odd, since we're in the same house and on the same wireless connection....), so she asked me to post this for her:
I'm very sorry that I haven't been around. I'll post more once I am able to access FFR from my computer.
Afrobean
January 6th, 2005, 05:06 PM
Whorli's internet is acting up (which is odd, since we're in the same house and on the same wireless connection....), so she asked me to post this for her:
I'm very sorry that I haven't been around. I'll post more once I am able to access FFR from my computer.
Why didn't she just log in on the computer you're using to post?
blahblah18
January 6th, 2005, 05:07 PM
cuz tass is tass and supposedly refused to get up or off the computer :p
whorlichan
January 6th, 2005, 05:13 PM
Exactly. Because a crowbar and margarine and three hefty guys (none of which I have access to) couldn't get his scrawny butt off the chair :) Either way, a couple of reboots and I'm back.
There's so much talk about alain with his whining and whining that he is SO human and SO not going to be wolfed because all his ramble about being HUMAN is going to get him lynched. I think this is a case of "the lady doth protest too much"--he won't shut up about it and that is very suspicious to me. I need to reread the thread, but I think I may soon change my vote.
chardish
January 6th, 2005, 05:13 PM
ATTENTION IDIOTS.
ALL YOUR POINTLESS BICKERING ABOUT THE LUPIN JOKE IS MAKING ME THINK YOU'RE TRYING TO FLOOD THE TOPIC WITH GARBAGE POSTS TO THROW PEOPLE OFF.
The next person to bring it up (or make a stupid joke) gets my vote. This isn't the best thread to joke around in, we have a game to win.
lightdarkness
January 6th, 2005, 05:42 PM
Ok, this is how I see it.
Kefit said that Alain is acting like he has a special role.
I have yet to see someone come in here, and defend him, so I'm guessing he isn't a mason.
So that means he could be the guardian/psychic, and we should keep him.... OR, he very well could be a wolf.
I think it's not a safe idea to lynch him day one, although he has certainly raised my brow.
EDIT: forgot a word
Tps222
January 6th, 2005, 05:43 PM
Holy ****, we don't have 13 pages yet. Must be a slow game.
I'm going to vote for alainbryden because I think he's dancing around in the spotlight too much. If he's an agent, then he's doing exactly what he should be doing by calling attention to himself. Every time someone makes a scene really early in the game people think "no agent would come out in the open this much this early in the game" so it's a nice cover.
Alain was acting very suspicous and seemed as an easy target. Kilga jumped on it right away. It was kilga's only post, 3 pages ago, and lacked any evidence other then stating the obvious.
M-A-C
January 6th, 2005, 06:21 PM
I'm going to lay off Alainbryden for a while. I have another suspicion about someone, but I'm not sure. So I'm changing my vote to....ummm Nothing. I can do that right? If not I'll just make a rondom vote.
alainbryden
January 6th, 2005, 06:24 PM
-_- you can't to that. Just keep your vote for me until you find someone better.
evilbutterfly
January 6th, 2005, 06:26 PM
You can always vote for yourself, though.
Speaking of avoiding phantoms** (whoops, said randoms before), when is time up?
M-A-C
January 6th, 2005, 06:30 PM
-_- you can't to that. Just keep your vote for me until you find someone better.
I would do that, but my computer has been running very slow lately. I'm afraid there might be an instalynch while I'm gone. So I guess I'll just vote for Tsuteto
lightdarkness
January 6th, 2005, 06:33 PM
-_- you can't to that. Just keep your vote for me until you find someone better.
I would do that, but my computer has been running very slow lately. I'm afraid there might be an instalynch while I'm gone. So I guess I'll just vote for Tsuteto
I'm not sure if you meant to say that, or if it was shere stupidity.
Instalynch's are almost impossible on day one, unless someone admits they are a wol... agent :-P
M-A-C
January 6th, 2005, 06:36 PM
I realize that, but you can never be too sure. I'm sort of not taking any chances. Eaither way I was going to change my vote.
evilbutterfly
January 6th, 2005, 07:28 PM
unless someone admits they are a wol... agent
Too bad that never happens. And too bad people don't talk more in general. I don't want to have to random vote for once on Day 1, so let me think for a minute about this. I'll type as I mull it over.
The spat between alain and LD has me a bit suspicious of both of them, but just a tiny bit. Maybe they're just a little too defensive. When Chardish voted against me, I thought maybe he was doing what alain did in TWG5 (accused me on little to no evidence, then pretend that he believed me suddenly and I started to trust him, but he was the master wolf), but Chardish didn't follow along that same pattern at all, so that suspicion is out the window. When M-A-C and (new kid whose name I don't know) both voted alain one right after another, it seemed like something a dumb wolf would do in their first game. Wolves would want an anti-human instalynch, and newb wolves might vote in blocks like that. (new kid) also tried to defend his vote a bunch, but I'm not so sure. However, going on these suspicions and not really having anything else...the new kid *finds his name in earlier post* named nforcer06164 gets my vote.
M-A-C
January 6th, 2005, 07:32 PM
That's exactly who I'm suspicious about. The only reason I'm not voting for him yet is because he's a noob at the game. I have had a little practice in the jTWG so I'm a little expierienced. On the other hand, I don't know what to do. I'm going to wait a little bit longer until I make my vote.
Tps222
January 6th, 2005, 07:35 PM
For my previous stated reasons i am voting KilgaMayan
nforcer06164
January 6th, 2005, 07:48 PM
The spat between alain and LD has me a bit suspicious of both of them, but just a tiny bit. Maybe they're just a little too defensive. When Chardish voted against me, I thought maybe he was doing what alain did in TWG5 (accused me on little to no evidence, then pretend that he believed me suddenly and I started to trust him, but he was the master wolf), but Chardish didn't follow along that same pattern at all, so that suspicion is out the window. When M-A-C and (new kid whose name I don't know) both voted alain one right after another, it seemed like something a dumb wolf would do in their first game. Wolves would want an anti-human instalynch, and newb wolves might vote in blocks like that. (new kid) also tried to defend his vote a bunch, but I'm not so sure. However, going on these suspicions and not really having anything else...the new kid *finds his name in earlier post* named nforcer06164 gets my vote.
I thought maybe I was being a little overanalytical, but M-A-C voted after me, so I don't know how I could be the one going for an instalynch.
I still want to see more, I even might want to change my vote. Certain new posts are making me suspicious of others (such as LD), so now I'm not sure where I want to go from here. I'm still keeping my vote where it is for now, though.
Tsuteto
January 6th, 2005, 07:51 PM
M-A-C, you seem to always go after me whenever you make a random vote. I think you're jealous of me :P
Anyways, looking back, I'm going to vote for alainbryden. All I can tell is that his posts, while all in good intention, just lacked the flesh around the bones. They were seeming to me always too loose.
lightdarkness
January 6th, 2005, 07:52 PM
Just a suggestion nforcer:
New information isn't always in the future. I would recommend trying to read all prevoius 6 games, too see how people have acted, and what roles they turn out to be.
Also, I think I might be ending the day with a random vote. There have definatly been some sparks "today", but I don't think they are significant enough to act upon.
M-A-C
January 6th, 2005, 07:54 PM
M-A-C, you seem to always go after me whenever you make a random vote. I think you're jealous of me :P
Anyways, looking back, I'm going to vote for alainbryden. All I can tell is that his posts, while all in good intention, just lacked the flesh around the bones. They were seeming to me always too loose.
Yes, I have a crush on you avatar. Really I saw you had no votes so I just picked you. Simple as that.
Afrobean
January 6th, 2005, 07:58 PM
Also, I think I might be ending the day with a random vote. There have definatly been some sparks "today", but I don't think they are significant enough to act upon.
That's exactly how I feel. Hopefully, someone *cough*ALAIN*cough* will post an updated voting guide so I can be sure to pick someone with no votes on them yet.
nforcer06164
January 6th, 2005, 08:08 PM
I would like to take this opportunity to randomly point out that Flypie hasn't appeared, save once, wayyyy back in page 3. I thought she would've posted again by now....
lightdarkness
January 6th, 2005, 08:10 PM
I would like to take this opportunity to randomly point out that Flypie hasn't appeared, save once, wayyyy back in page 3. I thought she would've posted again by now....
Flypie has asked me to relay the fact that she has been punished from the computer, and cannot be online tonight, I will find the conversation, and edit in here.
[20:27] Flypie: ok
[20:27] Flypie: I need to tell you
[20:27] Flypie: I am punished computer for the night
[20:27] Flypie: so that's why I wont be active in TWG if anyone asks
[20:27] Flypie: thanks
[20:27] Flypie: later
Squeek
January 6th, 2005, 08:57 PM
Squeek's Totally Not-Stolen Friendly Guide to Bandwagon Voting™
Alainbryden (3) - Kilgamayan, Nforcer, Tsuteto.
Kilgamayan (2) - Lupin_the_3rd, Tps222.
evilbutterfly (1) - Chardish.
Flypie (1) - Whorlichan.
Kefit (1) - Lightdarkness.
M-A-C (1) - JurseyRider.
Nforcer (1) - evilbutterfly.
Tsuteto (1) - M-A-C.
Not voted (6) - Afrobean, Alainbryden, Blahblah18, CypherToorima, Flypie, Kefit.
This is your 24-hour warning. Day ends in 24 hours.
Anybody afraid of an instalynch PLEASE NOTE that an instalynch occurs at NINE votes. This is highly unlikely, so don't worry about it for round one, OK?
Also, let's try to tone down useless posting from now on.
~Squeek
Kilgamayan
January 6th, 2005, 09:01 PM
I've only posted once because I got the day off from work today and I wans't about to waste it sitting here at the computer making a bunch of posts in this topic.
I really don't see why a low post rate matters, since anyone who has watched even only one or two of the games here should know by now that you draw more attention to yourself by not posting than by posting a lot. Everyone is suspicious of the quiet people, which definitely isn't warranted in all cases.
JurseyRider734
January 6th, 2005, 09:12 PM
JurseyRider743: well i hate emo...people.
Alainbryden: hehe
Alainbryden: you and I need to talk my dear
Alainbryden: TWG stuff
Alainbryden: you up for it?
JurseyRider743: Sure
Alainbryden: First, what's your role
JurseyRider743: I'm not telling you.
Alainbryden: just be honest, it's tons easier
JurseyRider743: No thanks.
Alainbryden: okay
Alainbryden: second strategy, do you think I'm a wolf?
JurseyRider743: maybe.
Alainbryden: have you talked to anyone else on aim yet?
JurseyRider743: briefly
Alainbryden: anyone you trust yet?
JurseyRider743: in a game like this, how can you?
Alainbryden: easy
Alainbryden: you talk to someone until they tickle your gut feeling
Alainbryden: sometimes they never do
JurseyRider743: they could be lying
Alainbryden: but it happens once in a while
Alainbryden: there are times when you know
Alainbryden: if you talk long enough
JurseyRider743: Maybe
JurseyRider743: I may be a noob at the game, but im not stupid, my dear.
Alainbryden: people who are too suspicious of you or who are wolves get too tense and you can't get anywhere talking to them
JurseyRider743: So you're sayin you're not suspicious and you're not a wolf because you're getting places talking to me?
JurseyRider743: or you're saying that im suspicious of you or i am a wolf/agent
JurseyRider743: One of the main reasons i have to be suspicious of you is because you just tried to convince me into telling you my role
Alainbryden: You are too suspicious of me to ease up so it's understandable that I can't talk straight with you
Alainbryden: and yeah, that was to see how much you trusted me/ how quick you were to tell me
JurseyRider743: Well i wouldn't be as suspicious of you if you didn't act it
Alainbryden: I have to act it
JurseyRider743: why's that. so people will think you're a wolf?
Alainbryden: yes
JurseyRider743: then you use your reverse psychology and people say "he wouldnt say that that easily' therefore making them go 'he is so not a wolf'
JurseyRider743: therefore you make them think you are in fact human
JurseyRider743: when you could be a wolf
Alainbryden: absolutely
Alainbryden: and that just keeps the suspicion rolling doesn't it
JurseyRider743: it does
JurseyRider743: you like to cause controversy, dont you
Alainbryden: that's the strategy
JurseyRider743: eh, its tough to figure you out
Alainbryden: I know, it needs to be
JurseyRider743: ill do it.
Alainbryden: do what?
JurseyRider743: figure you out
JurseyRider743: of course
Alainbryden: yes you will
Alainbryden: and I'll help you
Alainbryden: because I trust you
JurseyRider743: No you dont.
Alainbryden: I wouldn't have come and tried to let you in on it if I didn't
JurseyRider743: Or you would try to let me in on "it" even though "it" may be a lie, and you are infact some other role
Alainbryden: all 'it' is is the reason I've been doing what I'm doing, the one I can't say on the boards
JurseyRider743: i see.
Alainbryden: it's funny that you talked to me when you did because I was just about to talk to you in aim
JurseyRider743: haha
Alainbryden: this is hard, I'm not sure I want to organise the alliance
Alainbryden: I'll let the masons do it
Alainbryden: but just so you know, I firmly beleive that you, Lupin, Blah and Afrobean are humans
JurseyRider743: organize the alliance? how do you do that?
Alainbryden: with much difficulty
JurseyRider743: what do you have to do?
Alainbryden: find three people who agree that eachother are okay, and start with a tri
Alainbryden: then add in people one at a time that has won over all three of your trust individually
JurseyRider743: ohhh
Alainbryden: I don't think you're ready for it yet though
JurseyRider743: if you're a wolf, and you think im a human, thats probably a bad thing right
Alainbryden: actually other members aren't too sure about you at all
Alainbryden: and I have a bias opinion what with liking you already
Alainbryden: so it'll have to wait
JurseyRider743: haha
JurseyRider743: i see
Weird, eh?
lightdarkness
January 6th, 2005, 09:17 PM
Jurs, that is EXTREMELY hard to read, can you re-format it, so the names are shorter, and on the same line as the text.
EDIT: I did it for her, at her request.
evilbutterfly
January 6th, 2005, 09:20 PM
Alain has a crush on Jursey? Interesting...
And he's suspiciously tried to get me in on "it" also. I think either he's a crazy wolf or a bad human. Either way, I'd say hold off on lynching him at least for today, but it looks like that can't be helped...
lightdarkness
January 6th, 2005, 09:30 PM
WOAH
Ok, this is what I got from reading that convo.
Alainbryden: but just so you know, I firmly beleive that you, Lupin, Blah and Afrobean are humans
So he is saying Jursey, Lupin, Blah, and Afrobean are humans. This can only mean 2 things.
Alain is a mason, with Lupin, Blah, and Afro as his buddies.
OR
Alain is an agent, and obviously knows the status of everyone (agent/human)
alain keeps scaring me more and more. He hasn't acted like other human games, and he isn't acting like he did when he was a wolf, so I don't know what to believe! I'm just saying that conversation was very revealing.
JurseyRider734
January 6th, 2005, 09:49 PM
You're welcome
<333333333333
alainbryden
January 6th, 2005, 11:47 PM
Hi Jursey. I trust you so lets talk.
*stab*
thankyou
alainbryden
January 6th, 2005, 11:54 PM
Way to play for yourself, not for the humans. go back to jTWG.
alainbryden
January 7th, 2005, 12:15 AM
here vultures - alainbryden-
blahblah18
January 7th, 2005, 02:54 AM
Ok wow, semi ridiculous.. Jursey, I'm impressed how you handled yourself in that convo, I'm kinda shocked how you actually posted it... Alain I'm kinda shocked that you're sinking to such odd tactyics against would-be newbies.. definately not like you...
LD, him bringing our hnames up is probably in the exact way that if you remember in TWG II day 1 Tass made that post where he said without a doubt that myself bandit and whorli were human. I don't know what he's getting at or what's going on... but stuff's going down that I need to think on, and considering I just got home from the city 45 minutes ago.. I"m beat and will give this lotsa thought.
chardish
January 7th, 2005, 03:15 AM
Someone definitely underestimated someone else.
Alainbryden is one of the two. And the other one shouldn't get voted for.
LD, I'm kind of confused as to where you stand.
alain keeps scaring me more and more.
But I thought you were defending Alain in previous posts?
lightdarkness
January 7th, 2005, 05:29 AM
But I thought you were defending Alain in previous posts?
I don't think so, just posting the possibilities.
I got to talk to Jursey for a few minutes last night, and after hearing what she thought of the explination, it shined some light, and I might just have to change my vote (Even thought bandwagoning sucks), alain is just acting to suspicious day 1.
alainbryden
January 7th, 2005, 06:31 AM
So he is saying Jursey, Lupin, Blah, and Afrobean are humans. This can only mean 2 things.
Alain is a mason, with Lupin, Blah, and Afro as his buddies.
OR
Alain is an agent, and obviously knows the status of everyone (agent/human)
That is the absolute stupidest **** in the world. You're full of bull****. I would actually have to say that those are the only conclusions that are absolutely wrong. I went out and I made allies. I have no clue from whose ass you pulled those theories.
Someone definitely underestimated someone else.
Alainbryden is one of the two. And the other one shouldn't get voted for.
yes Chardish, you underestimated the fact that I haven't given up yet. And this bull**** vote there leads me to be certain you're a wolf. I don't know about LD, but that declaration of an attempted bandwagon formation on be had better get you killed today. If anyone of these players have half a brain left in them, They'll use their own damn heads and realise that I am a got damn human, the Jurs backstabbed me in my attempt to talk to her about a strategy of not getting me wolfed, and is probably a wolf because of it, and that you are the biggest wolf to take a shi t on TWG yet. If anyone falls for your crap, I'll be damn dissapointed Chardish
alain keeps scaring me more and more. He hasn't acted like other human games,
got damnit ld, I haven't been a plain human in any other games so you have no **** to go off of.
And if anyone had any ****ing confusion, the whole reason I pulled that off thus far, other than to locate people I can trust to tell them what's going on, was an attempt at not getting myself wolfed this game. Quote: "I'm pretty sure I'm at high risk of being wolfed if people aren't suspicious of me throughout the whole game. I'm trying not to force this next point too obviously on the boards, but to let this work, you have to act like you're suspicious of me without actually being suspicious of me. I figure that's my best way to survive the game." This is what I was baisically telling my allies. Since it has now been turned around to try and get me killed, all I can hope is that I can set **** straight, and get at the wolves that manipulated this to get my lynched instead of having to wolf me.
If I fail to set this straight, you will make the mistake of lynching me. If and once I have set it straight, I will be wolved, so if there's any situation leftover where I can not die, please let me know, otherwise, just use your heads.
JurseyRider734
January 7th, 2005, 08:13 AM
Yeah the thing is once you thought that people were suspicious of you, they wouldn't vote for you. I think you're using some kind of double reverse psychology to mess with our heads. You're making us want to vote for you, but the thought of you doing that makes us not want to vote for you, even though you're probably a wolf. Im not going to change my vote yet until I'm more sure of things, but it's a little bit sketchy the way you're acting.
flypie743
January 7th, 2005, 08:15 AM
Quote: "I'm pretty sure I'm at high risk of being wolfed if people aren't suspicious of me throughout the whole game. I'm trying not to force this next point too obviously on the boards, but to let this work, you have to act like you're suspicious of me without actually being suspicious of me. I figure that's my best way to survive the game.
You want people to pretend to be suspicious of you?
whorlichan
January 7th, 2005, 08:41 AM
I really don't want to deal with alain's "double reverse psychology" anymore (thanks for the great name, Jursey). If he's a human, he's awful at it. And if he's a wolf, he's awful at it. We're all suspicious and annoyed at him, and I for one think it's a liability for the humans to have him on our side.
That said, Alain now has my vote. Flypie, you're off the randomosity hook :)
lightdarkness
January 7th, 2005, 08:52 AM
Alain, you are stupid.
It is almost impossible for there to be any allies in this game (this variant) because there is no seer. All you have are the 4 masons, and you have to try and rule out people as being wolves (as we did last game, and ruled out an actual wolf :-P)
You have to realize you can't just talk to someone, and know their humanocity (OMG I INVENTED A WORD). I mean, you can have some trust in someone, but you can't be 100% sure of anyone (Unless they are a mason).
I have no clue what I just said, just ranting :-P
JurseyRider734
January 7th, 2005, 09:00 AM
here vultures - alainbryden-
"here vultures -alainbryden-"?
Is he calling himself a vulture?
Or maybe, an agent?
Tsuteto
January 7th, 2005, 09:08 AM
here vultures - alainbryden-
<insert giant voting guide picture here>
I did vote for you earlier you know alain, back on page 8. Don't be trying to keep your votes low.
alainbryden
January 7th, 2005, 09:15 AM
It was bold you _, and I used it do make the -_- dissapointed smiley because you are all being _s. I was putting in a temporary vote for myself, but my need to vote chardish as a wolf was greater.
It was also nice of whoorlican to come out like a wolf. "let's vote off a human because I don't like him." Way to take one for the team.
Lightdarkness, you are the _. Just because you automatically trust the wrong people, and find yourself used easily, meanwhile overcompensating by being a relentless hardass about anyone else that tries to talk to you shows that you obviously don't have what it takes to determine whether someone is trustworthy. So yes, it is impossible for you to make an alliance, but not for other people.
Flypie, that's what I told people I trusted, but obviously, now that Jursey has attempted to unleash all hell on me, that strategy is completely useless, so I was posting what my intention was before all this **** started being thrown around.
And Jursey, your double reverse psychology theory is bull. There's not even single reverse psychology involved here. Infact it's called a Type I error. I am attempting to claim that you are making a big ****ing mistake, and you think I'm lying. You fail here, not me. I just think you guys are all such _s for misinterpreting what I've been saying the way you have, meanwhile wolves like chardish and whorlican are popping in turning stupid ramblings into votes and pretending they are substantiated.
And I don't blame the people who trust me for not jumping in, because you _s would just claim they are my wolf allies you ignorant _s. If you play for yourselves only you will just lose. I try to bring some people I trust together and you vote me off like I'm plotting to wolf you all. You clearly don't understand how to play this game as a team and that's why the wolves will keep winning with the same strategy as the past two games.
Anyone got anything else to say? because you're wrong.
edited out insults
alainbryden
January 7th, 2005, 09:23 AM
oh sorry Tsueto, here you are.
Tsuteto
January 7th, 2005, 09:25 AM
Actually, I do have something to say.
First off, you whine too much. You're acting like everyone else is far beneath you, and that you're the only savior. I mean, what's the exact point of it all? You, trying to defend yourself as if it is the important thing is just screaming wolf towards me. I know, you're thinking bull. Guess what? My mind, not yours.
Second, it was your fault to begin with that made us pull towards you as being a wolf. You tried to do a double whatever thingy that I'm not even going to try and explain, which made us take towards you as a wolf more than anything else. What reason DON'T we have to think like that? Sure, some of us may be following, but in where you tried to gain allies, you only turned out to have them brought forth as friends. That's that.
Third... you curse far too much. Cut it down a little bit, please?
lightdarkness
January 7th, 2005, 09:50 AM
Alain is turning into a mini Tass.
Overconfidant of his skills, and thinks everyone else is wrong.
No offence to Tass that is (<3 <3 see you in TWG X)
whorlichan
January 7th, 2005, 09:55 AM
Alain, I didn't vote for you because I don't like you. I just think that you are protesting too much, trying to con us all into NOT voting for you for the odd fact that you are making us suspect you. I thought the point of the game (besides winning for the TEAM, not yourself) is to find the people who are more suspicious and get rid of them.
I don't see anyone else quite as obviously suspicious as you yet. If I do, I will change my vote. Meanwhile, I am glad to have gotten off the random vote and found a (currently) useful one.
alainbryden
January 7th, 2005, 10:29 AM
Well I have said everything I can say and have pointed out everything you need to know the truth. If you still come to the conclusion that I am a wolf then you have failed at reasoning, and you have made your first mistaken lynching. I am done for the day.
lightdarkness
January 7th, 2005, 10:29 AM
Lightdarkness, you are the idiot. Just because you automatically trust the wrong people, and find yourself used easily, meanwhile overcompensating by being a relentless hardass about anyone else that tries to talk to you shows that you obviously don't have what it takes to determine whether someone is trustworthy. So yes, it is impossible for you to make an alliance, but not for other people.
Uhh, i'm the smart one and am not trusting anyone in this game.
You go up to Jursey, without talking to her for more than 2 minutes, and put an enormous amount of trust in her.
The only way to do that, is to be a seer, or a wolf. So that is why I choose you, Alainbryden
chardish
January 7th, 2005, 11:27 AM
First of all, your blame for me being a wolf is senseless. You accuse me of bandwagon formation, despite the fact that a large piece of evidence had been recently levied against you. Voting after something like that isn't bandwagoning - it's making a rational decision based on facts and evidence.
The principle evidence against you was your claim to Jursey that you trusted her. The concept of an alliance would be alluring to most players, and when someone offers their trust, it's hard to turn it down. In other words, your whole campaign with Jursey seems like "fishing" for a newbie who will be your pawn and stay off your back.
You've offered no reason for your simultaneous absolute trust of Jursey with your absolute distrust of others (namely, me.) You've offered no explanation for your erratic, unpredictable actions, other than the bizzare pretense that somehow this is all an elaborate scheme to draw out wolves. You've offered no defense of your behavior other than a stream of incomprehensible profanties touched by fire-and-brimstone warnings of what's to come if we proceed. You've offered no apology for trying to confuse and manipulate your fellow players to no end, randomly pegging others as wolves and forming concrete conclusions from insubstantial evidence.
Therefore you've offered no recourse but to vote for you.
lightdarkness
January 7th, 2005, 11:32 AM
I would just like to say, that Chardish is the best writter i've ever seen, and he should write books for a living, because that post was soooooooooo intelligent.
And I would just like to remind people that there is no Seer in this game, I didn't want any confusion from this message of mine:
The only way to do that, is to be a seer, or a wolf. So that is why I choose you, Alainbryden
EDIT: Alain, I just saw the comments you have on your little "voting guide", and I find it quite hillarious that after 36 hours, you are sure of 2 wolves, and one other, and calling many people idiots.
Even if there is a small chance you are a human, you aren't a team player.
EDIT V2: He can't even spell idiot, what an idiot.
Squeek
January 7th, 2005, 12:54 PM
About 8 hours to go.
No name-calling, OK? This is the most intelligent forum section we have and, as such, should contain the most intelligent posts on the site.
I'm reconsidering the 36-hour days, but I don't know what to do otherwise. I still want 10:00 - 10:00, but if I do that, I have to wait 24 hours during the Night shift before I update the thread. I know as for this weekend, I could make an exception and hopefully have it updated at midnight, since the 48 hours would end Sunday night at 12.
I apologize for the inconvenience, but there's no way you'll be waking me up before noon. It just will not happen. Seeing as this is the case, I would LIKE to have the thread updated right after most of the users get home from school, but I have to incorporate the west coast as well, which makes this all the more challenging. If anybody has a viable solution for me, please AIM me with it. My AIM, as always, is "Stop Drop And Di" with no "e".
~Squeek
blahblah18
January 7th, 2005, 02:35 PM
Ok I"m just gonna make this little post and then go back to thinking.
Of all the people so far in day 1, Alain looks the most suspicious, but I don't know if I see anything that means he's a wolf.
I do agree with Chardish that it seems pretty bad about his trusting Jurs, but that's about it. What LD said was completely ludicrous and basicalyl a flat-out lie... worst reasoning for a vote I've ever seen.
LD paraphrased:
Only a wolf would try making alliances in a game with no seer
LD Last Game:
Hi Tass, I'm LD. How about we start the beginning of an alliance to try and spread it to other humans?
eh?
Now knowing from past experience what possibly offering an alternative can bring, I'm going to preface this by saying that to convict someone for merely defending them is as stupid as when Alain said anyone that votes him is a wolf. I'm not saying he is or isn't, I'm just trying to offer other possible scenarios so we have an idea of maybe the reasons behind these actions.
Either
A) Alain's an idiotic wolf and thought he could get the n00bs on his team by being like "i trust you lets start an alliance" .. if this was the case, I would expect MAC or nForcer to step forwards and say "yes someone contacated me too! and it was really similar to that!"
that hasn't happened... makes me think no wolf plot is going to be done as a solo..
B) Alain's an idiotic / new human who for some reason got it into his head that he would be a prime wolf target and then the only way to stay alive was through the hope that the wolves would think we'd do their job for them. While personally I think its a rather dumb strategy, it seems slightly more logical then choice A.
Possible explanations for Alain's convo with Jurs:
A) Alain's a wolf and wanted to build an "alliance" in the same way Tass and Q did with Cenright and TnyHwk back in TWG III (for you people that wern't there, tass and q were wolves and convinced the humans cen and tny to join an alliance with them). Again, if this is the case
1. I would expect other pople to come forward with seemingly similar situations or suspicions
2. Alain wouldn't have gotten as righteous with anger as he has, because there would normally be his teammates then to say "STFU"
B) Alain's a human and somewhat stupidly goes about trying to start the beginnings of an alliance. He chooses someone that he has talked to a lot outside of TWG and thus figures he'd be able to tell if she's acting off or anything. He feels betrayed when she posts the convo and he becomes indignant.
Sidenote to B: remember that no one ever questioned Tasselfoot when he woudl go to someone and say for some reason that he trusts them based merely on the posts made so far , as I"ve said before, refer to TWG II when he immediatelyt came out saying he knew myself whorli and banditcom were humans.
C) Alain wants to see if Jursey is a wolf and thus wants to see if she'll blindly / readily enter into an alliance with him with little to no basis for it. It woudl be a test to see if the wovles wanted to extend their power the other way.
Personally I don't believe this is the most logical option but its feasible so I listed it.
My guess here is that it very well could be choice B because Alain knows that Tass isn't in the game and feels that he should somehow take his place and gather people together.. whether he did a horrible job of that or not is irrelevant, but this is definately a possibility for some of his actions.
In conclusion, no one's really said anything that damning yet besides Alain and LD's reason for voting Alain, but I just wanted to show everyone how the way LD / Chardish / the others are painting the facts completely glosses over the other side of the coin.
lightdarkness
January 7th, 2005, 02:38 PM
Wow, you paraphrased(sp) too much.
I said it's impossible to completely trust someone in a game with no seer, not to make alliances.
Also, us bringing in tass was different circumstances, which can't be applied here. I feel my reasoning is completely justified.
blahblah18
January 7th, 2005, 02:46 PM
All I know is, wolves would like information suppressed human's would like information shared.. I believe, and as Tass has always siad, to win, the humans have to at least try to form some alliance.. whether or not Alain was moronic in his attempt, I refuse to believe that the attempt alone is damning evidence
blahblah18
January 7th, 2005, 02:48 PM
Because I don't want to put an edit in my main post, I"l lsay here that the tass Q connection was in TWG FOUR, not TWG three..
Lupin_the_3rd
January 7th, 2005, 03:04 PM
A) Alain's an idiotic wolf and thought he could get the n00bs on his team by being like "i trust you lets start an alliance" .. if this was the case, I would expect MAC or nForcer to step forwards and say "yes someone contacated me too! and it was really similar to that!"
I'm not sure who first stated the idea of getting Alain getting all the 'noobs', but Jursey and I are the only noobs that I am aware of that he has decided to trust. Whereas he contacted a good friend of his, Jursey, I, being somewhat unfamiliar, came to him. The way he was acting in the beginning of the game made me suspect that he was a human. Basically, my greeting for him was, 'what the hell are you doing, and why?' Ever since he explained it to me, I figured that an alliance could work, but only if we had some level of trust for each other. Admittedly, I have been intimidated by people contacting me (very similar to jursey), but I decided that I would give trust a shot, for even if he was a wolf, his promotion of sharing of information and lack of encouragement for who to vote for would not be detrimental to the humans as a whole, and would help me to get a better perspective on the game.
Afrobean
January 7th, 2005, 03:08 PM
It seems to me that Alain has yet to be a normal human. I'd say that odds are against him being a wolf again. If I were to guess based on probability of things, I'd say that Alain is most likely a normal human this game. Yes, his actions are suspicious, but I wouldn't define them as wolfy. In other words, we should keep an eye on him, but not lynch him right away.
Either way, if Alain is human or agent, I'd think that the people he lists as human can be trusted as human. My reasoning is this:
If Alain is human:
He would be worthy of trust. Anyone he belives is human, is probably accurate.
If he's a wolf:
He's handing us a decent alliance. A wolf most likely isn't going to put his other wolves in the alliance, just in case they get figured out. Because of this, I'd say it's safe to say that most, if not all, of those Alain trusts as human really are human.
lightdarkness
January 7th, 2005, 03:14 PM
I'll fill in for Chardish here:
THE ROLES OF A PLAYER IN PREVIOUS GAMES IS NOT AN INDICATION OF THEIR ROLE IN PRESENT AND FUTURE ONES.
Too add on to your thoughts, I was thinking also about his thoughts on people and if he is a wolf or human, but we need the psychic to come out and tell 1 or 2 people the results of tomorrow.
Lupin_the_3rd
January 7th, 2005, 03:17 PM
but we need the psychic to come out and tell 1 or 2 people the results of tomorrow.
you seem awful sure of yourself with that whole 'lynching alain' thing...
lightdarkness
January 7th, 2005, 03:19 PM
but we need the psychic to come out and tell 1 or 2 people the results of tomorrow.
you seem awful sure of yourself with that whole 'lynching alain' thing...
During today, I did think he was going to be lynched, but someone has brought to my attention that it can be reversed.
In any case, the psychic is currently important as to validizing alains claims.
Afrobean
January 7th, 2005, 03:25 PM
THE ROLES OF A PLAYER IN PREVIOUS GAMES IS NOT AN INDICATION OF THEIR ROLE IN PRESENT AND FUTURE ONES.
Of course it does't affect future probability. For example of what I mean:
Say you're rolling a dice. Even numbers represent human, and odd numbers represent wolf. Number 1 could be a special human role.
The case of alain would be like this: He rolls a 6. Then a 1. Then a 4. (I don't know the order that he got his roles in, so don't be pissed at me if this is innacurate)
What is the odds of getting those 3 numbers and not getting other numbers in their place? According to what LD said, it's 1/6. It is most definitely NOT 1/6. If I remember my math for probability correctly, it would be a 1/216 that he would get those rolls.
I'm sure this isn't a very good example, but hopefully you got what I meant.
blahblah18
January 7th, 2005, 03:40 PM
no Afro, you're wrong.. considering he already rolled a 6 and then a 1, his chance of getting a 4 now is still 1/6
its like if i flip a coin a million times and they all come heads... even though the probability of flippipng a coin 1 million and 1 times is
1 / 2^1,000,001
its still just a 1 / 2 that the million and first one will be heads.
Afrobean
January 7th, 2005, 03:45 PM
Yes, you're right that his previous roles has nothing to do with his role this game, but listen to this. Imagine that we're having this argument before Alain has even joined one TWG. What would you say would be the probability of him being a wolf two times and a human special job? The chances of that are not that good. Now, all I'm saying that the probability of him being a wolf three times is even more unlikely.
nforcer06164
January 7th, 2005, 03:49 PM
THE ROLES OF A PLAYER IN PREVIOUS GAMES IS NOT AN INDICATION OF THEIR ROLE IN PRESENT AND FUTURE ONES.
Of course it does't affect future probability. For example of what I mean:
Say you're rolling a dice. Even numbers represent human, and odd numbers represent wolf. Number 1 could be a special human role.
The case of alain would be like this: He rolls a 6. Then a 1. Then a 4. (I don't know the order that he got his roles in, so don't be pissed at me if this is innacurate)
What is the odds of getting those 3 numbers and not getting other numbers in their place? According to what LD said, it's 1/6. It is most definitely NOT 1/6. If I remember my math for probability correctly, it would be a 1/216 that he would get those rolls.
I'm sure this isn't a very good example, but hopefully you got what I meant.
I believe that the probability of getting the numbers in that order is 1/216, and getting those three numbers alone is 1/18. Each one individually, though, has a probability of 1/6.
But let me justify the other side a little: say you could flip a coin 50 times, and get heads each time. On your 51st, the chance of getting tails would still be 50%. That means that anyone could be a wolf everytime they play. Although the chances of that happening are astronomical, the odds of its frequency will never change as long as the amounts of what roles people can get, and number of players, does not.
Alain is being more unjustified that any of us. He changed his stance from coming up with strategies to "lure out wolves" to defending himself. What I saw as really setting him off, though, was Jursey's post of the conversation. Now, I'm having this thought in the back of my head that if it was anyone besides Jursey, he wouldn't have gotten so defensive and/or ticked off.
blahblah (12 posts back) may be getting at something about alain and his possible role, but I'm not sure whether to be suspicious, or to heed his thoughts.
Squeek
January 7th, 2005, 03:50 PM
Here's the odds of any person being a role they were before:
Agent - 4/18. = 22%
Psychic - 1/18. = 5%
Guardian - 1/18. = 5%
Mason - 4/18. = 22%
Probability and statistics go out the window when it doesn't matter what the previous numbers gave. It's only good for when you remove something from the equation. Such as, when there are 3 red marbles and three blue marbles and you take one out.
Random.org is the best random number generator in the world. They have formulated an algorithm that nobody else has topped. It is UNREFUTABLY the greatest random generator to date.
Carry on.
~Squeek
PS - No information should be taken seriously in anything I post. I post as a neutral party favoring no role.
Kilgamayan
January 7th, 2005, 04:22 PM
LOL MATH SIDE TRACK ok folks here we go
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The probability of getting one given number three times in a row while rolling one standard die is 1/216.
Break it down easily:
We'll use 3 as an example. The probability of rolling a 3 in one roll of a six-sided die is 1/6, as there are, obivously, 6 total possibilities and only one correct one.
Now, you roll the die a second time. Again, the odds of getting a 3 on that roll are 1/6.
However, combine the first two rolls' possibilities. For each one individual result for the first roll, there are six possible results after the second roll. In 3's case, that would be (3,1), (3,2), (3,3), (3,4), (3,5), and (3,6). Each of the first six possibilities has six additional possibilities attached to it. 6 times 6 is 36.
For the third roll, the same concept applies. Each of the 36 initial possibilities (produced by the first two rolls) has 6 new possibilities attached to it from the third roll. In the end, you have a number of different possible outcomes equal to 36x6, which is 216.
If anyone wants, I can write every single one out, but I doubt we want to see that.
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On a TWG-related note, CStarFlare was a wolf in three consecutive games over at BMS. Never have the mentality of "oh he was a wolf last game he has to be human this game".
chardish
January 7th, 2005, 04:27 PM
The odds of someone rolling a certain number 3 times in a row may be 1/216, but we're not looking at 3 times in a row. We're looking at only one roll. And previous rolls don't influence future roles. Period.
blahblah18
January 7th, 2005, 04:28 PM
Thanks for stopping that, now a post on the game? :)
Kilgamayan
January 7th, 2005, 04:31 PM
The odds of someone rolling a certain number 3 times in a row may be 1/216, but we're not looking at 3 times in a row. We're looking at only one roll. And previous rolls don't influence future roles. Period.
Sorry I saw math and I was like OMG POUNCE :(
Afrobean
January 7th, 2005, 04:33 PM
Thanks for stopping that, now a post on the game? :)
Yea, sorry about bringing that up. We really need to get more posting (relevent posting anyway) here so I can decide who to vote for.
blahblah18
January 7th, 2005, 04:43 PM
yeah, come on Chardish / Kilga, post something relative, eh? .....
Kefit
January 7th, 2005, 06:43 PM
Alright, it looks like I will be placing a vote for Alainbryden.
I know from past games that Alain has been trusting of others. This is important - not trusting others and being paranoid ultimately leads to the demise of the humans. The thing is, trust in this game can't be blind. To do so may as well be to walk into the clutches of the wolves.
However, in past games, I can see reasons for Alain to have held the trust that he did - it was further into the game, and substantial activity, both on aim and in the thread, had occured. But this game he has started trusting people right out of the gate, and I don't see anything that could have substantiated it. I suppose that he could just be a stupid human, but I know that Alain is rather intelligent, so I don't think this is the case.
JurseyRider734
January 7th, 2005, 06:47 PM
HELLO KEFIT. ITS NICE TO SEE YOU AROUND. COME BACK AGAIN SOME TIME =)
Afrobean
January 7th, 2005, 07:27 PM
I need to put a vote on someone to avoid instalynch. I'd totally forgotten Kefit was in this game. His punishment for not posting: a vote from me.
flypie743
January 7th, 2005, 07:37 PM
Rofl, I was going to do the same thing Afro. I don't feel that Alain deserves my vote. Kefit has my attention because I thought he would actually be glad he didn't die on night 1 again :P like he did for two games before. I would have thought Kefit would have been more active. So, my vote goes to Kefit for day 1.
EDIT: Also, I am just going with my gut feeling on this one.
Tsuteto
January 7th, 2005, 07:57 PM
Alright, I'm changing my vote to JurseyRider734. The main reasoning for this is I was following everyone elses' opinion, and going very little on my own. How do we know that she posted that just so we would vote for alain straight out, and not for her? I personally think that Jurs was just trying to get us aiming for alain so we wouldn't make suspicions of her.
Afrobean
January 7th, 2005, 08:03 PM
Tsuteto, that's a good idea, but think of this. Jurs is still a newb to TWG. My belief is that she's a human who just didn't realize that Alain, being human or agent, is helping the humans. She thought that what Alain said was strange (which I gotta admit, it really is) and so she decided to post it so that others would know of Alain's weird technique. My current standing on both of these individuals: most likely humans who made some dumb mistakes.
JurseyRider734
January 7th, 2005, 08:09 PM
Yeah, I didn't realize that my post could be taken two ways. I was just trying to help you guys out because I was suspicious of him.
evilbutterfly
January 7th, 2005, 08:12 PM
If anybody has noticed my inactivity: sorry. I was at school, and after school I hung out with a friend for a loooong time. We played a ton of DDR (about 50 songs worth) and then I finally came home and I showed him/let him play HL2/CSS. I didn't wanna waste his time reading the TWG thread and all that, so I'm just now getting around to posting (after eating dinner and whatnot).
Anywho, I feel that at least one person who voted for alain is a wolf. Also, the people who have posted yet not voted...one of them is probably a wolf, too. That narrows it down to a few and a whole lot with some possibility therein. Not good, but it's day 1, so I can't really expect much. Now you may call me wolfy for defending a suspected person, but I really don't think alain is a wolf. Well, more like I think he should stay alive for a day or two more, just to see how things go.
One thing I just thought of: everybody keeps saying how alain has been a wolf so many times. Let's look back at his previous games. As a wolf, he fooled Tass his first try, almost duped me, and did pretty well. He and stretchy also owned the humans last game. He did both these things in crafty ways, not crazy "double reverse psychology" and wild forum posts. This pretty much rules out his being a stupid wolf. Also, look at alain's human games. He failed terribly. He sucks at being a human. He does stupid things. Look at what he's doing now. Stupid stuff. He'd know better if he was a wolf, or so I would think.
And now, on to who I suspect. Earlier today (game day) Chardish voted for me with bad reasoning. I pointed out that Alain did the same thing in TWG5 (one of his tricky wolf tactics that nobody suspected) and that I was suspicious of Chardish for it. I said I wouldn't vote for him, but see how he reacted to my post and if he had any further reasoning. A quick look back at the thread shows that he DIDN'T react to my post, not even a little bit. He completely ignored it. To me, this was because may be I caught him in the act. Maybe I called him on what he was doing and he figured "crap, I should pick on somebody else!"
Also, Chardish is a smart guy. He reads into things and posts intelligently. His vote for me was without a whole lot of reasoning. I'm acting how I always do (which raises some people's suspicions, because I talk so much and don't care if I say things others are afraid to) and he voted for me because of it. I would have passed this off as a stupid Day 1 vote, but the lack of any kind of response concerning my post about his vote bothers me. I would think that he would at least say that it was just a Day 1 vote, or that he was changing his vote off of me because alain is more suspcious or something, but he didn't mention me at all after his post.
A bit odd? I dunno, you tell me, Chardish.
evilbutterfly
January 7th, 2005, 08:24 PM
Btw, Alain also contacted me yesterday. He said that whole "act suspicious of me so I don't get wolfed" story to me and I thought it was dumb, not wolfy. It was selfish; it was something I would do if I was desperate. He went about it badly (going to so many so quick), however, so I figured he was just being dumb and didn't say anything.
I also talked with Jurs, and she thinks I'm sketchy. It was practically the only serious convo I've had with her EVER, so I have no idea if she's acting sketchy or not.
Talked to blah, too. He's friendly...a bit too friendly, I think. However, I had never talked with him before during TWG, so I have no idea.
Talk to afro as usual. He seems pretty normal this time around. Can't be too sure, though.
If there's anybody else I've talked to, I forget. Couldn't have been much nor was it important if this is the case. If anybody wants to talk to me, I'm usually on AIM. If not, it's because I've been kicked a whole bunch (wireless network acting dumb + house has bad, jamming wiring = I get kicked a whole bunch) and I'm on an alternate sn. My main sn is evilbutterfly87. My alternate is IHateDLink (D-Link is the brand of wireless we have. I made the sn just because I got kicked so much).
blahblah18
January 7th, 2005, 08:28 PM
Ok I don't like how Chardish and Kilga were both following the thread and then completely silent when I asked them to say something useful... I"m suspicious of bot