TWG 200 Game Thread: Dichotomy

[Charu]

Watch this.

Only when OOTC is turned off is when we can actually see the flips

[Charu]

By the by, I completely skimmed the (S) part.

[fatfuck42]

Originally Posted by roundbox

specifically?

Last phase it felt like he was posting for the sake of posting and just putting SOMETHING out there, but this phase I'm getting more of a sense that his posts have meaning and purpose to them. You can follow his progression and motivation. I also like that he was one of the few people who wanted the other game to insta logman. If I'm right about wolves being in on the haku rush then I don't think wolf ben would want to potentially flip a player whose alignment would help out town with wagonomics.

[Shadow_God_10]

Originally Posted by Charu

Watch this.

Only when OOTC is turned off is when we can actually see the flips

I'm going to say something dumb but here we go

D0 OOTC was turned off yeah?

We didn't see a flip then so... Can we be certain of this?

[DaBackpack]

Originally Posted by reuben_tate

Some thoughts I have on some people:

-fatfuck: town lean. I believe they were the first to propose the insta idea and despite things not working out as intended regarding that, I believe it was a good idea at the time as a means of potentially getting more information (that would primarily be beneficial town).

-DBP: Town. I feel like I've been mindmelding with him for most of the posts this phase. I'm not entirely enthused about his vote on me but his thoughts/analysis on the situation does appear genuine to me.

-gold: town, but only due to the self-vote...I'm having a very hard time imagining a wolf doing that.

-blind/subaru/logman: town lean. I didn't have much of a scum read on these people earlier and assuming gold is town, I'm inclined to believe that everyone else in the 2nd game is town as well.

-charu: ???. I like most of Charu's posts this phase compared to last. I'm not too sure what to make of him being defensive regarding the neighborhood chat with blind. On one hand, that piece of information alone is not enough to want someone out of the game; however, it is a small piece of evidence which is definitely not something that should be ignored/forgotten about and I'm getting the impression that Charu wants people to ignore or forget it. I think Charu's playstyle has changed a bit over the years (according to himself earlier), so maybe someone else has a better idea regarding how Charu normally reacts to evidence presented against him (as town and/or wolf).

This post is useless.

The town reads are easy and safe. The closest thing to critical thought in the post is the Charu read. But it's so goddamn wishy-washy and it doesn't actually SAY anything. I bolded every expression where he qualifies or couches a statement in uncertainty. This is wolf phrasing. He wants to give the appearance of wolf hunting, but is 100% fence-sitting.

[Charu]

Originally Posted by Shadow_God_10

I'm going to say something dumb but here we go

D0 OOTC was turned off yeah?

We didn't see a flip then so... Can we be certain of this?

Just a thought, since the flip was revealed once the phase was changing (to OOTC on).

Just a crackshot theory, lmao.

But imagine.

[Charu]

Err... since the flip was revealed to be a "no-flip" I mean.

Oh, you know what I meant.

[Shadow_God_10]

Originally Posted by Charu

Just a thought, since the flip was revealed once the phase was changing (to OOTC on).

Just a crackshot theory, lmao.

But imagine.

Crack shot indeed...

But somehow I think you might be on to something here

[reuben_tate]

Originally Posted by bugkid666

we should equally value both of those options, i think.

I disagree with this sentiment in general. There are a myriad of possibilities for this game, but some of them are much more "likely" than others. Some combination of Occam's Razor and some kind of weighted-risk-analysis should be used to inform our decisions. As an example, there could be some hidden mechanic where if I vote 4 times in a phase, then I'm instantly killed; however, the "likelihood" of such a mechanic is so small that it's not even worth considering.


At the same time though, everyone should maintain an open-mind and be flexible about having their current pre-conceived notions about the game being challenged.

[the sun fan]

Votecount:
raeko (1)- kappa
xiz (2)- choof, freezin
force (1)- fg
celery (1)- roundbox
storn (4)- bugkid, plop, shadow_god, Haku
cedo- (1)- Celery
ben (1)- DBP
unvote- Xiz

[DaBackpack]

Originally Posted by Charu

Just a thought, since the flip was revealed once the phase was changing (to OOTC on).

Just a crackshot theory, lmao.

But imagine.

I hope it's this easy, lol. That means we would actually get a flip today

[DaBackpack]

Originally Posted by reuben_tate

I disagree with this sentiment in general. There are a myriad of possibilities for this game, but some of them are much more "likely" than others. Some combination of Occam's Razor and some kind of weighted-risk-analysis should be used to inform our decisions. As an example, there could be some hidden mechanic where if I vote 4 times in a phase, then I'm instantly killed; however, the "likelihood" of such a mechanic is so small that it's not even worth considering.


At the same time though, everyone should maintain an open-mind and be flexible about having their current pre-conceived notions about the game being challenged.

Thanks for the new evidence Ben.

The first chunk is obvious mechanical knowledge. The second part is him doing a "however" on that first chunk. Wishy-washy flishy-floshy

[FreezinIce]

from discord:

[In regards to backpacks conclusions made based on sunfan stating the game was over which points to a gamestate with wolves achieving parity or being eliminated...]

FreezinIce: ill explain: its predicated on a faulty understanding of the 2nd game

He assumes that because of sunfans post that wolves or town won the game it points to a gamestate where at that time wolves or town were in a position to win when in reality its probably because that was the first available opportunity sunfan had to state the game was over since its going backwards

[FreezinIce]

in short im not going to buy any hard conclusions derived from that point of contention

and i dont think ben is wolfy anymore so ill stick with my plan to launch xiz

[mellon_collie]

Originally Posted by FreezinIce

He assumes that because of sunfans post that wolves or town won the game it points to a gamestate where at that time wolves or town were in a position to win when in reality its probably because that was the first available opportunity sunfan had to state the game was over since its going backwards

Right, this is part of the reason I read him as over confident. Idk if he knows something or is trying to steer the game in a certain direction

[bugkid666]

Originally Posted by FreezinIce

from discord:

[In regards to backpacks conclusions made based on sunfan stating the game was over which points to a gamestate with wolves achieving parity or being eliminated...]

FreezinIce: ill explain: its predicated on a faulty understanding of the 2nd game

He assumes that because of sunfans post that wolves or town won the game it points to a gamestate where at that time wolves or town were in a position to win when in reality its probably because that was the first available opportunity sunfan had to state the game was over since its going backwards

my response to this was (and still is): even if i believe backpack, i'm not going to vote based on his theories today

[DaBackpack]

Originally Posted by FreezinIce

from discord:

[In regards to backpacks conclusions made based on sunfan stating the game was over which points to a gamestate with wolves achieving parity or being eliminated...]

FreezinIce: ill explain: its predicated on a faulty understanding of the 2nd game

He assumes that because of sunfans post that wolves or town won the game it points to a gamestate where at that time wolves or town were in a position to win when in reality its probably because that was the first available opportunity sunfan had to state the game was over since its going backwards

Originally Posted by the sun fan

Town or mafia has lost and the game is over.

This seems pretty specific to me tbh...

[reuben_tate]

Originally Posted by DaBackpack

Thanks for the new evidence Ben.

The first chunk is obvious mechanical knowledge. The second part is him doing a "however" on that first chunk. Wishy-washy flishy-floshy

The purpose of that phrase is to indicate that these two seemingly diametrically-opposed things can be true at the same time. It's analogous to "Hope for the best, plan for the worst" but instead its "take actions based on what's likely, but don't be surprised if unlikely things happen".

[Shadow_God_10]

Originally Posted by FreezinIce

in short im not going to buy any hard conclusions derived from that point of contention

and i dont think ben is wolfy anymore so ill stick with my plan to launch xiz

That reminds me.

I think you missed me asking this

Originally Posted by Shadow_God_10

Freezin if you're around

Are you just granting Xiz's wish of WANTING to die or is there more reasoning behind this?

[bugkid666]

Originally Posted by mellon_collie

Right, this is part of the reason I read him as over confident. Idk if he knows something or is trying to steer the game in a certain direction

i think you were definitely onto something there with that assessment and i think we should explore why later. tonight, i'm pretty adamant on lynching either storn or xiz (aka someone from the haku train)

like i've said a billion times today, twgma is looking better to me overall but he's still on my radar