TWG CLIX: Form your special exclusive groups now! - Game Thread

[ShadoWolfe]

Originally Posted by DaBackpack

Freezinice and Haku are probably never on the same team here

and honestly I have freezin and gradiant both as town rn

I don't see it either, TWG just doesn't operate like that. This isn't Christmas, and they ain't Santa.

[DaBackpack]

Originally Posted by Precarious

On reading through (in my case, it wasn't in real time, so the time proximity of the posts didn't really register), I saw it less as hard baiting and more as shitposting, since no one (Charu or anyone else) would actually reply to "are you a wolf" with anything other than sarcasm. It's actually more concerning to me that Haku defended those posts as baiting rather than the posts themselves, because they had no chance to actually a catch a wolf. It's like trying to fish with nothing on the hook.

After typing this and seeing what happened in thread before actually posting, I see Haku kind of admitted that it was shitposting, then suggested the questions were legitimate. The point remains; the reaction was overdefensive (and Haku later even overdefended further by trying to play Gradiant's original concern as justified). The finally admitting to the segment just being shitposting, by contrast, is a better look.

***

As to Charu, I'll just reiterate again that it's extremely unlikely that he's anything other than what he's already claimed, because there's no payoff if he's a wolf or a serial killer. As soon as he's counterclaimed, his best case scenario is that the other person is mis/lynched first. If they flip bodyguard/asceticizer, then Charu would be unquestionably lynched the next day. It's not worth it for the wolves to trade a player (it very very rarely is), and it's suicide for the serial killer if he's counterclaimed on day 3 or earlier.

From the perspective of actual having that role, it was the right move for him to actually claim imo. The value of a confirmed townie is limited normally, because they're likely to be killed before end game, and its effect on the player pool is most limited early in the game (when there are the most players). However, Charu wouldn't be a normal confirmed townie; he's also bulletproof, which means that end game value is there so long as he isn't killed while bodyguarding. The loss of Charu as a possible night target is outweighed by his confirmation.

Originally Posted by Precarious

I'm going to state that, for the purposes of how I proceed, I'm considering Charu confirmed. Here's why.

If he is anything, anything, other than what he says he is, it will negatively impact him and/or his team. There is no way around this, barring sheer apathy by his actual counterpart.

Without bothering to separate the scenarios by other town/wolf/serial killer, let's examine what would happen if Charu is lying.

If Charu is lyhing, then there is an actual bodyguard or asceticizer out there. They have two options, to claim or not to claim.

If they claim, then Charu and the counterclaimant are caught in a binary. We know that at least one them is lying, so we'll no doubt immediately lynch one of them. If Charu is actually VT, we at best lose Charu (if he's lynched first), and at worst lose both the B/A and VT Charu. If Charu is actually a wolf, the wolves at best trade one-for-one (which doesn't make sense considering our advantages in numbers; killing a wolf is more valuable than losing a townie, particularly when the townie is non-investigatory) and at worst lose a wolf with literally no gain. If Charu is actually the serial killer, this gambit will lose him the game. According to the link, the SK needs to kill four people to win. At one kill per night, that means the SK needs to survive into night 4. While this claim might protect from chance wolf attacks, if counterclaimed on D3 or earlier, the binary will resolve itself by D4 at the latest, preventing Charu from possibly achieving his win condition.

Now, what if the actual B/A is reluctant to show himself yet, unwilling to risk the ~50% chance of lynch? Well, it's unlikely that they'd be dumb enough not to claim by D3, and really it would be a pro-town move to do so even now, since again a one-for-one tradeoff (and that's the worst case scenario) favors town. But even if they die by mischance (unrelated lynch or night death--how the night death happens would obviously differ depending on B or A), we have full role flips at death. We would be notified that so and so is a B/A, at which point Charu would be fully caught in his lie, and lynched asap.

There are scenarios where it makes sense for an antitown player to fake claim, but doing so where there's an explicit binary situation immediately available is usually not one of them. I'm counting Charu as confirmed town because it would be idiotic for him to do this if he's not actually a bodyguard. After all, if he's not, the real B/A will call him out, either now, or in a day or two.

precarious can you produce actual reads instead of making raw commentary?

[Charu]

So the usual Hakulyte special?

Hee hee hee

[DaBackpack]

reading into Charu's claim is a waste of cognition, and it's analyzing it is an easy to way feign investment in the game imo

[Charu]

Originally Posted by DaBackpack

precarious can you produce actual reads instead of making raw commentary?

Since he defended me, I'll defend him. I don't think a wolf or a SK would defend me right here with mechanical talk. Call it a hunch, but if they choose to leave me be and have me around the the entirety of the game, I don't see how that would benefit them at all.

...Just my 2 cents.

[DaBackpack]

Originally Posted by Charu

Since he defended me, I'll defend him. I don't think a wolf or a SK would defend me right here with mechanical talk. Call it a hunch, but if they choose to leave me be and have me around the the entirety of the game, I don't see how that would benefit them at all.

...Just my 2 cents.

maybe, but there was also no way you were ever going to be lynched, so it would be incredibly easy for him to 'defend' you from a nonexistent outcome

[Charu]

Originally Posted by DaBackpack

reading into Charu's claim is a waste of cognition, and it's analyzing it is an easy to way feign investment in the game imo

However it produces some talk about how the game should be run, but I agree, he hasn't really said anything of the sort. Just defending and believing me, heh.

[DaBackpack]

Originally Posted by Charu

However it produces some talk about how the game should be run, but I agree, he hasn't really said anything of the sort. Just defending and believing me, heh.

bringing it up is fine and dandy but I want to make sure it's not a substitute for solving the game

[Gradiant]

hi mellon

[ShadoWolfe]

Originally Posted by Gradiant

what are your thoughts on freezin's sudden attitude change after your unvote?

I'm going to have to reread later, but I gave him towny points for that whole exchange last night. When I pushed on him repeatedly, his responses seemed natural. I didn't like the fact that he refused to acknowledge calling you suspicious at all, but still looked town for the exchange.

His tone/attitude shift wasn't suspicious to me, though, because I was the one who initiated it. I went from, "you're fucking scummy!" to "It's nice to meet you, /unvote" in one post, so it also seemed natural that his tone would shift in responsr to mine.

I think you're pushing on town rn tbh, but there's no harm in that because it lets us all decide where the both of you stand and continues to generate useful info.

[Charu]

I'm more spectating the people at the moment.

I'm inclined to agree that Freeze is, err... I guess acting weird and sudden I suppose? It's the first time we're all playing with him, so I have nothing to base off of him unless I decide to dig into the archives and read a previous game he was in. But it would be sort of moot because playing differently after so long means nothing and it's super weak to use.

Gut is saying to watch him, maybe possible lynch candidate, but I don't think so yet. Phase is still young.

[Charu]

...What am I doing, fuck my sense of responsibility is kicking in.

Here's a random shit post from me to cancel these posts out.

[Charu]

Haku is a x A n n Y pattern < 3 < 3 < 3

[Gradiant]

Originally Posted by Charu

...What am I doing, fuck my sense of responsibility is kicking in.

Here's a random shit post from me to cancel these posts out.

[ShadoWolfe]

Originally Posted by DaBackpack

precarious can you produce actual reads instead of making raw commentary?

Originally Posted by DaBackpack

reading into Charu's claim is a waste of cognition, and it's analyzing it is an easy to way feign investment in the game imo

Originally Posted by DaBackpack

maybe, but there was also no way you were ever going to be lynched, so it would be incredibly easy for him to 'defend' you from a nonexistent outcome

Yeah, I had noted the same. It makes me especially wary because he had done the same thing last game and ended up flipping wolf. Filling long post after long post with nothing but Charu is no way to go about hunting scum.

Precarious, where you at, buckaroo?

[ShadoWolfe]

Kind of mindmelding with DBP, so I'ma force myself to step back for a moment and also acknowledge that there's definitely a world where he could be inactive wolf (as per meta) who then comes in strong with a wolfread and a vote to deter too much analysis on himself.

[mellonxcollie]

I did it I read the posts!!! MY THOUGHTS:

I believe Charu. Because of the reasons everyone has already posted, it would be a very ballsy move and a lot of lies to keep up with if he was a different role. I don't think the potential benefits would outweigh the risks or effort involved in crafting that sort of lie immediately off the bat. Also since it's been a bit and nobody has counter-claimed. I don't see many situations where the real BG wouldn't call Charu out immediately after that post.

I really don't want to say that he is confirmed though. He's not confirmed, and this way of thinking can be dangerous. Keeping an open mind to all possibilities is an essential part of TWG in my opinion. I'm going to keep my eyes open and continue to analyze him because there is still a chance he could be lying. But, I do think it's more likely that he is telling the truth. I don't think there is much point in focusing on this at this time

I've never played with Haku before. But there are a few things about his play style that rub me the wrong way.

I can sometimes be confused by mechanics too but the solution isn't to just ignore the mechanics of the game and hope for the best. Give them some thought, ask questions if you have to and try your best to figure it out. If players don't understand the game properly that leaves a lot of room for wolves to manipulate them. So it's not good for town to have clueless people on the team. Also, The way that you talk about your understanding of the game and "being dumb" seems like it could be an excuse to make slips.

I don't know, I don't think it means anything right now but I just wanted to jump on the Haku advice train lol

I found ShadowWolfe's jump on Freezin to be very strange for a number of reasons. That post kind of came out of nowhere. It seemed like his points were reaching a lot, and he intentionally left out the context of several quotes to suit a narrative that he seemed to already have established. It didn't seem as... inquisitive? as I would expect from a human player.

I am suspicious of anyone who claims that something is 100% confirmed when it isn't. Precarious seems very confident and sure of himself for someone who should be questioning everyone/everything around him

Sorry for wall of text

Originally Posted by ShadoWolfe

Hi there!
I've read a couple of your games from way back. Nice ta meetcha (:

It's nice to meet you too ^_^ I look forward to playing with you!

Hi Gradient!

[Gradiant]

Still trying to figure out what this 'missing context' is

[Gradiant]

stuff left out was my posts, and what i said in my posts was what he was putting in bold inbetween the freezinice quotes. Minus the hopping on haku wagon, because there's no wagon? Just me with a vote on him

[roundbox]

DaBackpack is not mafia aligned
Will this hold up?

ONLY TIME WILL