TWG CLIX: Form your special exclusive groups now! - Game Thread

[Charu]

Ugh, I wish I had someone to talk to. Preeeeee... tell me a story about your judgement on botchi agaiiiiin

[roundbox]

Originally Posted by Charu

Siiigh, roundbox, I wanted to keep it low key that lynching shadow is actually bad.

Too bad
Town is at a deficit and this is our sign to be strategic and get our shit together
I will not yield until I'm dead

[Charu]

Sigh, so after calming down about shadow, I did take a look at all three posts that voted for shadow last minute.

Freezin is whatever

Botchi actually had progression to his vote, even if it was last minute. Thank god for his low post count, it was really simple to see his progression to shadow.

Not sure about backpack though

[Charu]

And maybe, JUST MAYBE my rage is blinding me about shadow, but fuck him hard. I will not listen to anything he says this game. I'll turn my head the other way. I'll do the whole "hmph" at him, eyes closed and everything.

[Charu]

Hmm... pressure on backpack doesn't sound too bad either now that I ISO'd him

[Charu]

He didn't so much mention shadow at all in his posts.

He probably got cold feet about me getting cold feet though. That is to say, he was relying solely on me last minute in that phase.

[Charu]

Originally Posted by DaBackpack

help

This sort of confirms what I mean, but eh...

[Precarious]

Here's how the end of day went down.

With 90 seconds remaining, only seven players had voted.

3 -- FreezinIce -- Gradiant (101), XelNya (59), DaBackpack (48)
1 -- juckter1 -- inDheart (83)
1 -- botchi246 -- Precarious (52)
1 -- XelNya -- Hakulyte (91)
1 -- inDheart -- ShadoWolfe (98)
1 -- danceflashrevo -- roundbox (42)

Then, in that last, sudden burst of activity:

Freezin voted Shado
Shado voted Freezin
DBP changed his vote to Shado
Botchi voted Shado
Charu voted Freezin

DFR, juckter, Zenith, and mellon did not vote.

***

Within the last two minutes, there was a sudden push on Shado. Having said that, there was a lot of smoke surrounding Shado on D0.

Freezin's vote is obviously from a town perspective, based on the flip. It's hard to argue that it was purely self-preservation either, as Shado had zero votes at the time (five non-Freezin players had one, see above). Freezin's post was also accompanied by a brief roster run.

Shado immediately voted Freezin. The reasoning for the switch is pretty weak. My only reservation about viewing this as damning is that Freezin still had a substantial vote lead, so flipping wasn't necessary.

DBP switched from Freezin to Shado, changing the count by two. Post was just "shadow," nothing else.

Botchi responded to a post I made, then listed Shado as his strongest scum lead and voted there.

Charu moved to Freezin. Day ends.

***

The non-voters look bad. So do the actual late voters, for doing nothing until there was no time to discuss or react, but Freezin had a substantial lead with two minutes to go, so non-participation was tacit approval of the Freezin lynch. Since Freezin has since flipped town, we know that wolves would have been fine with a Freezin lynch in general terms, since it was a mislynch.

I find it interesting that Shado felt the need to countervote, as it was still 3-1 (or rather 3-1-1-1-1-1-1) at the time. If Shado turns out to be a wolf, I'd wonder if he was forewarned of of DBP causing a two vote swing. This is likely overreading, but still.

Botchi's play actually doesn't bother me that much--I like the willingness to address my concerns about him. I don't care for the shortness of the reasoning for Shado ('strongest scum lead' lacks a why), but the only real problem here is the same as the others--the extreme lateness of the action.

Charu apparently thought the day ended later. It would still have been a good idea to have a vote in place, but the situation with him doesn't (and can't be) changed anyway.

***

Vote data isn't going to be super reliable after one day, particularly since we're all guessing anyway, but I'd really like to hear some explanations for the non-voters. Even setting aside non-participation at EoD, none had active votes previously in place (obviously) and only one of the four had even placed an unvoted vote during D0.

[Precarious]

EBWOP: Actually, one of those points is impossible because no day chat. The rest still fits.

[Charu]

So out of all the people that voted shadow, do you think any of them had wolf-y intentions?

[Charu]

I can see one for backpack, and I know you had beef with him earlier in the last phase. But I'm prepared to defend him if he brings me the detective vibe he usually brings on the second day phase if he's town that is

[_Zenith_]

Just mildly skimmed an isolation of Xel and DBP

Both are real interesting as fuck to me but I have at least one thing to say about both:

Xel had a really bad pocket post towards charu that made me laugh, alongside another with anger that might be arbitrary?? That one felt a tad forced but don't take this statement serious until I actually do isolations.

DBP in a skim of around 10 posts I believe (and unfortunately) can get metaread but I don't necessarily think it defines his alignment yet. Will be honest, his posts about the book and just out-of-game subject matter makes me over read him and the intent of posting and it'll probably lead me to an inaccurate read but aorn I'm not sold on either direction.

[Precarious]

Night kills analysis:

Gradiant and inD were killed.

Gradiant was probably killed by the wolves. He was active and being strongly town read, and accordingly had outsized influence on how the game was proceeding. I'd argue that he was a large part of why Freezin was lynched, but actually looking at the other three Freezin votes there was the chaotic Xel, Shado countervoting, and Charu throwing a Freezin vote at the last second, so I'm not sure that's actually the case. We also know his choice was misplaced. Regardless, his probing seemed generally effective as a discussion tool, and he ability to win arguments made him potentially dangerous to any wolves that might happen to get caught up with him.

That leaves inD to have been killed by the SK (the reverse is obviously possible, but is less likely). It's highly unlikely that a vig would have shot on the first night, plus there were only two kills, so we know there was no bodyguard block. An asceticizer hypothetically could have resulted in a two kill night with three attacks, but things breaking that way are profoundly unlikely. There has also been no vig claim.

If inD was targeted by the SK, there are several possible reasons. The serial killer needs to survive to win, so the wolves and the cop present an existential threat to the SK. Depending on which flavor of SK we got, one or the other might prove more threatening immediately, but there's a chance the SK believed inD was a wolf or the cop. I'd say a wolf-read was more likely, so revisiting who suspected inD may be relevant. The reverse is also true; lynching is equally a threat to the SK, so anyone inD suspected may have been inclined to target him (n.b. inD was voting juckter). I find this less likely as one vote is hardly enough to cause a lynch and there's the risk of the kill being connected (as it is here), but it's still possible.

It seems unlikely to me that the SK would have killed randomly; they have a narrower path to victory. The wolves also are unlikely to have killed randomly; while there's deceptive value in a group RNG-killing, it's wasteful in a game with power roles, and Gradiant seems a very unlikely chance target.

***

It warrants revisiting who was suspicious of inD, although an SK might also have hidden that to avoid being linked. Juckter-inD interactions also should be looked at.

[_Zenith_]

Oh I'm a fucking idiot I forgot inDheart is dead and I included him in my fucking reads lmfao

[Charu]

Originally Posted by Precarious

It warrants revisiting who was suspicious of inD, although an SK might also have hidden that to avoid being linked. Juckter-inD interactions also should be looked at.

Off the top of my head.

Shadowolfe, dfr, juckter... and that's about it that I remember.

Might be confusing dfr with someone else though.

[Precarious]

I see Shado has hard claimed vig. That's interesting.

[Charu]

I feel a shadowolfe post coming any second now.

[ShadoWolfe]

haha yeah just getting one more quote first, totally right though

[ShadoWolfe]

Originally Posted by danceflashrevo

also i find it interesting how wolfe voted freezin for self preservation knowing that would hinder town but like... didn't claim. I may be looking at this from a noob POV but i would've voted who i actually thought was a wolf and claimed instead

I wanted to avoid claiming D0 if I could, to narrow down my shot options. I was actually grateful for immense suspicion, because wolves don't generally NK scum-read townies, instead preferring to try to get them mislynched. Claiming for self-preservation would've been counterproductive there was 30 seconds left in the phase (so it wouldn't change votes much), and would've forced me to shoot last night, with a wider pool and worse reads.

Originally Posted by Charu

Be as it were that you were at work, I give no fucks. You clearly saw what was going on (because you mentioned inDheart not getting lynched). You saw what was happening, you should've claimed here.

But you fucking didn't dude, you didn't even do it.

Originally Posted by Charu

He saw it coming, I must reiterate he was highly aware of what was happening because he came in last minute to mentioned "inDheart is getting lynched, huh?"

In response to those two posts, I didn't have time to read at work. I got totally fucked all day by non-stop patrons. They've heard the restaurant is transitioning to a sports bar, so they're all coming to get their favorite dishes for the last time. My second post when coming back was to request a votecount, because I didn't have time to read everything but I saw several people having me as one of their top options. Not wanting to be mislynched, and disappointed that inDheart only had my vote on him still, I switched to Freez (who still seemed wolfish enough for me to be comfortable lynching him). Didn't claim for the reasons I told DFR earlier in this post.

Originally Posted by Charu

And maybe, JUST MAYBE my rage is blinding me about shadow, but fuck him hard. I will not listen to anything he says this game. I'll turn my head the other way. I'll do the whole "hmph" at him, eyes closed and everything.

Cool. I'm done with the insults too, but felt like I had to respond to your earlier offenses with some of my own.

[Precarious]

Originally Posted by danceflashrevo

Question bc i was thinking about this earlier. What's the merit of separating wolves and SK in your mind? I feel like I should just be able to play like there are 3 wolves but just 2 killing power and be okay like that. Are there any tendencies that differentiate wolves and the SK?

Wolves are a team; they know each other, and therefore know that everyone else is either town or the SK. As a result, although they'll obvious try to hide it, they know whether a lynch will kill a wolf or a non-wolf beforehand. They'll also be motivated to protect each other (although may bus depending on a gambit or pressure/momentum from town). They'll likely try to avoid being linked to each other. They may be able to coordinate their actions to some degree, based on any conversations they may have had.

SK is a one-man team, which means he'll act more like a town player. He doesn't know who is town and who is wolf, and will probably mimic town genuinely, both so as to avoid being characterized as a wolf, and because wolves present a special threat (he can be nightkilled, possible 1-shot bulletproof notwithstanding). The difference between town and SK is that the SK might (might) be slightly more reserved, as they're not part of a team and if they get nightkilled they lose, and the obvious fact that in the end they'll want to see everyone else in game eventually die.

A wolf is more likely to seem "off" than a serial killer, although that kind of analysis can be dangerous, since if there was someone whose meta was truly completely different based on alignment, they'd probably have stopped playing TWG long ago.