TWG 200 Game Thread: Dichotomy

[bugkid666]

Originally Posted by DaBackpack

infinite reasons to lie if he is a wolf. even in the purgatory thread.

the nightkill is weird though. wolves don't kill blind. 3p MIGHT kill blind. vigi may or may not kill blind. maybe a kill was redirected to him. idk.

but if blind is a wolf in the purgatory game, there is literally no reason for him to NOT fakeclaim there.

then why are you taking his claim at face value?
and on top of all of that voting ben... when you've asserted that you believe he's town... and we've already established that no person is going to give us "more information" than another based on the fact that we are expecting a no-flip? am i missing something?

[XelNya]

Originally Posted by Shadow_God_10

I am thinking of a number between one and seven

[Shadow_God_10]

Originally Posted by XelNya

I am thinking of a number between one and seven

[DaBackpack]

Originally Posted by bugkid666

this was my thought-process too... what if we receive different roles when we enter game 2? (i don't think this is true but you can't deny it's possible)
plus what if he claimed seer and there isn't another seer in the game to counter-claim???

Here's the other thing about claims

We have no idea if wolves in this game can target players in the "other" game. Normally, the only reason real PRs don't massclaim is because the wolves will kill them in the night. Wolves don't fake claim unless they have to normally, because of counterclaims, or if they ended up living through the night

If the other game doesn't actually have any wolves in it, claiming is pretty safe for both alignments I think. brain hurts trying to think about it. idk. blind is most likelybtellijg the truth based on everything else we know

[DaBackpack]

just ignore that last post, it's a disaster

[mellon_collie]

OK I just need to make a post even though I don't have any real thoughts to post about but I need to get into this game

Even though kappa is voting for me I think they are town, they seem genuine in their posts and reactions

Right now I like Haku but this is mostly based on tone/vibes. Just seems like normal Haku thoughts idk

McDaddio, we had a private chat earlier and it seemed to flow naturally so town lean

Roundbox is town for now because of reasons in our personal chat. This is a flimsy read though and subject to change if something happens

DBP seems a bit over confident in his analysis of everything, even for him. I feel like he might know something somehow

storn I have no impression about

I agree with DBP's analysis of the Haku wagon potentially protecting Ben and I still have my same doubts from last phase so I wouldn't hate a Ben vote here

[bugkid666]

Originally Posted by DaBackpack

most likelybtellijg

B)

[bugkid666]

Originally Posted by DaBackpack

Here's the other thing about claims

We have no idea if wolves in this game can target players in the "other" game. Normally, the only reason real PRs don't massclaim is because the wolves will kill them in the night. Wolves don't fake claim unless they have to normally, because of counterclaims, or if they ended up living through the night

If the other game doesn't actually have any wolves in it, claiming is pretty safe for both alignments I think. brain hurts trying to think about it. idk. blind is most likelybtellijg the truth based on everything else we know

jokes aside, i don't necessarily think the context matters in this case... i'm not going to believe a hard claim in a mystery role game, i'm just not.

[TWGma]

I also voted off of Kappa because my initial vote there was pressure to see if they'd just collapse under it, but Kappa stuck to his guns for his vote and didn't do it for a piggybacking reason.
Haku was my primary vote target before that so me going back to it was the logical choice, imo.

[bugkid666]

Originally Posted by TWGma

I also voted off of Kappa because my initial vote there was pressure to see if they'd just collapse under it, but Kappa stuck to his guns for his vote and didn't do it for a piggybacking reason.
Haku was my primary vote target before that so me going back to it was the logical choice, imo.

i did mention this fact already before which is why of the 5 people who voted for haku, i found blind, xiz, and storn the most suspect with suburu being close behind. twgma not as much imo

[fatfuck42]

I'm not too keen on a ben wagon considering how much townier he seems this phase.

[TWGma]

Okay, pixelated Oliver ain't fun. Time to swap to the other TWEWY avatar.

[DaBackpack]

Originally Posted by bugkid666

then why are you taking his claim at face value?

I'm not blindly accepting it, it's just that his claim makes sense with the current evidence we have. He died in the night, and also "the game was over" this phase. that only happens if there were zero wolves over there, or a full TWO wolves over there. we can evaluate him later

and on top of all of that voting ben... when you've asserted that you believe he's town... and we've already established that no person is going to give us "more information" than another based on the fact that we are expecting a no-flip? am i missing something?

I didn't believe he was wolf given the circumstances. Namely, the wagon forming on him came from a reason I didn't agree with. But after looking at the wagons last phase, it makes the most sense if Ben is a wolf and his partners were trying to defend him.

Force is the clearest example of someone defending Ben, and I'm fine lynching him, but atm it makes more sense to lynch Ben right now (imagine if we lynch Force and he ultimately ends up town. we get very little. if we lynch Ben and HE ends up town, we actually learn quite a bit--- even about Force)

There's a faulty argument made about "no-flip = no information." The cardflip from THIS GAME doesn't reveal anything, but I highly suspect that the cardflip from the second game HAS TO reveal their color.

So basically, to get a cardflip, you have to lynch them twice. We'll find out for sure once we see Gold Stinger's flip I guess.

Furthermore--- like I said earlier, if a wolf is sent to the second game, I suspect that there will be some message about "the game is not over. neither wolves or town have won" or something like that. This is actually tremendously useful to us because it means that (assuming the other game is currently all town...) one of the new players has to be a wolf.

[roundbox]

Originally Posted by fatfuck42

I'm not too keen on a ben wagon considering how much townier he seems this phase.

specifically?

[DaBackpack]

Originally Posted by bugkid666

jokes aside, i don't necessarily think the context matters in this case... i'm not going to believe a hard claim in a mystery role game, i'm just not.

I'm just saying that if you think he's lying, then he is a wolf. And if you believe he is a wolf, there also MUST MECHANICALLY be a second wolf in the second game right now. There mechanically cannot just be "a single wolf" over there right now.

Occam's Razor is currently telling me that the other game is most likely zero wolves, since we would have to be extremely lucky to have already nailed two of them. But it's still possible, and I will keep it in mind as we collect new information.

[bugkid666]

Originally Posted by DaBackpack

There's a faulty argument made about "no-flip = no information." The cardflip from THIS GAME doesn't reveal anything, but I highly suspect that the cardflip from the second game HAS TO reveal their color.

So basically, to get a cardflip, you have to lynch them twice. We'll find out for sure once we see Gold Stinger's flip I guess.

Furthermore--- like I said earlier, if a wolf is sent to the second game, I suspect that there will be some message about "the game is not over. neither wolves or town have won" or something like that. This is actually tremendously useful to us because it means that (assuming the other game is currently all town...) one of the new players has to be a wolf.

sure sure, this makes sense. i'm having trouble with you because on one hand you say "i'm not blindly accepting anything" and on the other hand you keep insinuating that everyone in game 2 is town. we should equally value both of those options, i think.
i understand you about the flip on gold tonight being important coupled with your suspicion of a new game state message.

i know all we have is theories right now but your adamancy on these points are what you came to the conclusion on and are not yet our reality. they very well might be, hell, i honestly think you're probably right. but we can't take your assumptions as truth because they aren't.\

maybe this post is useless idk, i'm just saying it might be better to worry more about hunting wolves here and less about game 2's circumstances especially since roles will be flipped at the same time anyways.

[bugkid666]

Originally Posted by DaBackpack

I'm just saying that if you think he's lying, then he is a wolf. And if you believe he is a wolf, there also MUST MECHANICALLY be a second wolf in the second game right now. There mechanically cannot just be "a single wolf" over there right now.

Occam's Razor is currently telling me that the other game is most likely zero wolves, since we would have to be extremely lucky to have already nailed two of them. But it's still possible, and I will keep it in mind as we collect new information.

:thumbsup:

[reuben_tate]

Some thoughts I have on some people:

-fatfuck: town lean. I believe they were the first to propose the insta idea and despite things not working out as intended regarding that, I believe it was a good idea at the time as a means of potentially getting more information (that would primarily be beneficial town).

-DBP: Town. I feel like I've been mindmelding with him for most of the posts this phase. I'm not entirely enthused about his vote on me but his thoughts/analysis on the situation does appear genuine to me.

-gold: town, but only due to the self-vote...I'm having a very hard time imagining a wolf doing that.

-blind/subaru/logman: town lean. I didn't have much of a scum read on these people earlier and assuming gold is town, I'm inclined to believe that everyone else in the 2nd game is town as well.

-charu: ???. I like most of Charu's posts this phase compared to last. I'm not too sure what to make of him being defensive regarding the neighborhood chat with blind. On one hand, that piece of information alone is not enough to want someone out of the game; however, it is a small piece of evidence which is definitely not something that should be ignored/forgotten about and I'm getting the impression that Charu wants people to ignore or forget it. I think Charu's playstyle has changed a bit over the years (according to himself earlier), so maybe someone else has a better idea regarding how Charu normally reacts to evidence presented against him (as town and/or wolf).

[DaBackpack]

Originally Posted by bugkid666

sure sure, this makes sense. i'm having trouble with you because on one hand you say "i'm not blindly accepting anything" and on the other hand you keep insinuating that everyone in game 2 is town. we should equally value both of those options, i think.
i understand you about the flip on gold tonight being important coupled with your suspicion of a new game state message.

i know all we have is theories right now but your adamancy on these points are what you came to the conclusion on and are not yet our reality. they very well might be, hell, i honestly think you're probably right. but we can't take your assumptions as truth because they aren't.\

maybe this post is useless idk, i'm just saying it might be better to worry more about hunting wolves here and less about game 2's circumstances especially since roles will be flipped at the same time anyways.

I mean I agree, I was just responding because you asked me about blindreper

I do kind of think Game 2 is important because it informs Game 1. If player X enters Game 2 and sunfan says "this game is still running", that is 100% useful information for us to use to build associations.

[DaBackpack]

Also uhhh

Originally Posted by the sun fan

gold stinger has died.
He will be flipped at the same time as the other game's flip(s) for this day phase.

excuse me????????