Old 04-30-2020, 04:33 PM   #2181
Duskfall
FFR Player
 
Duskfall's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2019
Age: 22
Posts: 5
Default Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread

yeah most like scum rn for me are haku and bolth after dbp
Duskfall is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-30-2020, 04:37 PM   #2182
Hakulyte
FFR & TWG Player
Retired StaffFFR Veteran
 
Hakulyte's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2005
Posts: 4,197
Default Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread

Great, now I have to entertain DBP/ShadoWolfe/leetic.
Hakulyte is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-30-2020, 04:39 PM   #2183
Hakulyte
FFR & TWG Player
Retired StaffFFR Veteran
 
Hakulyte's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2005
Posts: 4,197
Default Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread

Prob not revisiting Duskfall until game is over because the guy seems to actually be upset by my play.

That helps clear FFA a bit too.
Hakulyte is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-30-2020, 04:41 PM   #2184
flashflash account
FFR Player
 
flashflash account's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2017
Location: On a mountain in a desert
Posts: 507
Default Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread

at this point I'm convinced it's just this running gag where leetic keeps voting me because they think I'll eventually be a wolf
__________________
aka mikey

-----

Quote:
Originally Posted by FreezinIce View Post
FFA playing 4D chess in Gemity while us mortals are stuck on this gay earth

Quote:
Originally Posted by QueenAshy View Post
Iíve demonstrated self-awareness
Quote:
Originally Posted by MinaciousGrace View Post
i was pretty close to letting this slide tbh, but honestly your utter lack of understanding of the situation irritates me more than anything else at this point
Quote:
Originally Posted by MinaciousGrace View Post
seriously everything i wrote went way over your head if your reading comprehension is so far below third grade level while people may care about your opinion you should refrain from giving it because it's worthless
flashflash account is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-30-2020, 04:45 PM   #2185
Hakulyte
FFR & TWG Player
Retired StaffFFR Veteran
 
Hakulyte's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2005
Posts: 4,197
Default Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by flashflash account View Post
at this point I'm convinced it's just this running gag where leetic keeps voting me because they think I'll eventually be a wolf
Would you be surprised if MML Godfather or you're pretty sure that's town almost every time ?
Hakulyte is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-30-2020, 04:46 PM   #2186
Duskfall
FFR Player
 
Duskfall's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2019
Age: 22
Posts: 5
Default Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by Hakulyte View Post
Prob not revisiting Duskfall until game is over because the guy seems to actually be upset by my play.

That helps clear FFA a bit too.
i am not upset but i will take the townread ty
Duskfall is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-30-2020, 04:47 PM   #2187
flashflash account
FFR Player
 
flashflash account's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2017
Location: On a mountain in a desert
Posts: 507
Default Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by Hakulyte View Post
Would you be surprised if MML Godfather or you're pretty sure that's town almost every time ?
it would be a more favorable conclusion for MML than them actually being this bullheaded
__________________
aka mikey

-----

Quote:
Originally Posted by FreezinIce View Post
FFA playing 4D chess in Gemity while us mortals are stuck on this gay earth

Quote:
Originally Posted by QueenAshy View Post
Iíve demonstrated self-awareness
Quote:
Originally Posted by MinaciousGrace View Post
i was pretty close to letting this slide tbh, but honestly your utter lack of understanding of the situation irritates me more than anything else at this point
Quote:
Originally Posted by MinaciousGrace View Post
seriously everything i wrote went way over your head if your reading comprehension is so far below third grade level while people may care about your opinion you should refrain from giving it because it's worthless
flashflash account is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-30-2020, 04:50 PM   #2188
Hakulyte
FFR & TWG Player
Retired StaffFFR Veteran
 
Hakulyte's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2005
Posts: 4,197
Default Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by flashflash account View Post
it would be a more favorable conclusion for MML than them actually being this bullheaded
I've seen MML both wolf and town read me at same time earlier in the game as if he didn't want to commit there because it sounded like a minefield.

Considering the Xiz case and how his game unfolded, I wonder if he's just tunnelling stuff on purpose.
Hakulyte is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-30-2020, 04:51 PM   #2189
leetic
FFR Player
 
leetic's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2020
Posts: 5
Default Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by flashflash account View Post
at this point I'm convinced it's just this running gag where leetic keeps voting me because they think I'll eventually be a wolf
I'm willing to take the 0.06% chance I'm wrong
leetic is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-30-2020, 04:51 PM   #2190
Hakulyte
FFR & TWG Player
Retired StaffFFR Veteran
 
Hakulyte's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2005
Posts: 4,197
Default Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by leetic View Post
I'm willing to take the 0.06% chance I'm wrong
I have trouble to take your 0.06% chance thing seriously.
Hakulyte is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-30-2020, 04:52 PM   #2191
flashflash account
FFR Player
 
flashflash account's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2017
Location: On a mountain in a desert
Posts: 507
Default Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by leetic View Post
I'm willing to take the 0.06% chance I'm wrong
want to put something more tangible on these odds?
__________________
aka mikey

-----

Quote:
Originally Posted by FreezinIce View Post
FFA playing 4D chess in Gemity while us mortals are stuck on this gay earth

Quote:
Originally Posted by QueenAshy View Post
Iíve demonstrated self-awareness
Quote:
Originally Posted by MinaciousGrace View Post
i was pretty close to letting this slide tbh, but honestly your utter lack of understanding of the situation irritates me more than anything else at this point
Quote:
Originally Posted by MinaciousGrace View Post
seriously everything i wrote went way over your head if your reading comprehension is so far below third grade level while people may care about your opinion you should refrain from giving it because it's worthless
flashflash account is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-30-2020, 04:53 PM   #2192
Hakulyte
FFR & TWG Player
Retired StaffFFR Veteran
 
Hakulyte's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2005
Posts: 4,197
Default Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread

0.06% chance is a reasonable amount when it comes to the odds of the setup.

It's not like a setup has 99.4% chance to appear and it's between those two.

It's some big number splitted between a ton of scenarios.
Hakulyte is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-30-2020, 04:58 PM   #2193
Hakulyte
FFR & TWG Player
Retired StaffFFR Veteran
 
Hakulyte's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2005
Posts: 4,197
Default Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread

The activity makes me sad for a game that's 2 hours from EoD.
Hakulyte is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-30-2020, 05:00 PM   #2194
Duskfall
FFR Player
 
Duskfall's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2019
Age: 22
Posts: 5
Default Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread

leetic didnt do maths right btw given the info we know, assuming leetics claim is also correct the odds of there being exactly 3 Cs in the setup is actually

~5.25 percent
Duskfall is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-30-2020, 05:01 PM   #2195
Hakulyte
FFR & TWG Player
Retired StaffFFR Veteran
 
Hakulyte's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2005
Posts: 4,197
Default Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread

The real joke is why you guys keep asking me to do setup things.

If anything, I'm usually the one that somehow get things wrong.
Hakulyte is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-30-2020, 05:02 PM   #2196
Duskfall
FFR Player
 
Duskfall's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2019
Age: 22
Posts: 5
Default Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread

wait i also did my maths wrong i think its like 1 percent
Duskfall is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-30-2020, 05:03 PM   #2197
leetic
FFR Player
 
leetic's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2020
Posts: 5
Default Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by Hakulyte View Post
0.06% chance is a reasonable amount when it comes to the odds of the setup.

It's not like a setup has 99.4% chance to appear and it's between those two.

It's some big number splitted between a ton of scenarios.
First of all, you're doing the math wrong, it's a 99.94% chance Mikey is lying.

Moreover, the only evidence Mikey has really brought up against DBP is his cop check. Mathematically speaking, it is much easier to believe DBP.
leetic is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-30-2020, 05:05 PM   #2198
leetic
FFR Player
 
leetic's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2020
Posts: 5
Default Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by Duskfall View Post
wait i also did my maths wrong i think its like 1 percent
How are you doing it? For me it's (1/10)^3*(9/10)*4=about 0.00065
leetic is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-30-2020, 05:05 PM   #2199
ShadoWolfe
FFR Player
 
ShadoWolfe's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2009
Location: On a life-size Flat Earth model
Posts: 136
Default Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by Duskfall View Post
leetic didnt do maths right btw given the info we know, assuming leetics claim is also correct the odds of there being exactly 3 Cs in the setup is actually



~5.25 percent
You were quicker than me, but you're wrong too.

The binomial probability of rolling 3 Cs out of 7, where the chance of each C is 1/10, is roughly 2.296%

I cheated tho I used a calculator
https://stattrek.com/online-calculator/binomial.aspx
__________________





Quote:
Originally Posted by Hakulyte
I followed the "by the book" play, but I was reading the "not to do" page.
Quote:
Originally Posted by XelNya View Post
" I'd suck a dick in a dark, dark alley."
Quote:
Originally Posted by YoshL View Post
"i gave you 20 ducks, and spent a lot of time making one of them quack, and pointed at the particular one and asked "is that one the worst quacker"" ... "you could still give somewhat of an answer based on the quality of the quacks, and the other random quacks from the ducks surrounding that weren't the center of focus."
Quote:
Originally Posted by mellon_collie
"I love Wolfe's duck avi so much. Shado's Duck Shrine is the best!!
ShadoWolfe is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-30-2020, 05:06 PM   #2200
Duskfall
FFR Player
 
Duskfall's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2019
Age: 22
Posts: 5
Default Re: TWG 194 - Game Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by leetic View Post
How are you doing it? For me it's (1/10)^3*(9/10)*4=about 0.00065
you arent accounting for the fact that

- we already know two of the letters so we are rolling for 2 things in a subset of 5

-we arent selecting in a set number, you are calculating the odds of a setup being rolled in an exact order, not being rolled at all
Duskfall is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump



All times are GMT -5. The time now is 06:38 PM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.1
Copyright ©2000 - 2021, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Copyright FlashFlashRevolution