TWG CLXXIX: The Third FE Mystery Game Game Thread

[Daikyi]

was that 25 shots total or something

[Celirra]

around there i think

[Daikyi]

precarious still though

[Precarious]

Originally Posted by Charu

And Precarious said they got roleblocked too, is this also correct?

Not necessarily. I tried to kill Freezin and it didn't work. There are other possible explanations, although a roleblock is a logical one.

Anyway, Freezin.

Not that it matters at this point, since everyone is dead set on lynching me, but whatever.

[Charu]

Originally Posted by Precarious

Not necessarily. I tried to kill Freezin and it didn't work. There are other possible explanations, although a roleblock is a logical one.

Anyway, Freezin.

Not that it matters at this point, since everyone is dead set on lynching me, but whatever.

Have you ever heard of a wolf JOAT having a vest? I haven't.

[Charu]

What other scenarios do you propose, Mr. Precarious?

[Precarious]

Originally Posted by Charu

What other scenarios do you propose, Mr. Precarious?

Roleblock (town- or wolf-sided), vest, wolf doctor, another town doctor-type role (unlikely that it hasn't been announced at this point, but possible given Freezin's claim is obviously fake), nexus/lightning bolt/reflector, bus driver/switch. There are a lot of scenarios. A vanilla roleblock seems likely to me--from a town perspective, I would have been under suspicion last night after FFA's flip, and from a wolf perspective, they'd have known I'd target Freezin. But it's obviously not the only explanation.

[Celirra]

i wonder if precarious is still even reading what happens while he's gone or if he's given up

[Precarious]

Originally Posted by Celirra

i wonder if precarious is still even reading what happens while he's gone or if he's given up

Mostly given up, to be honest. I think it's obvious I'm going to be lynched, and I've been busier the whole game than I anticipated. You can all kill Freezin tomorrow after my flip I suppose.

Honestly, it was fun (and funny) while it was happening, but I kind of wish one of the ITA shots had hit me, so at least we wouldn't have wasted another day on this nonsense. Even better would have been if my shot hit Freezin--but hey, that seems to be par for the course this game.

[Xiz]

Hi

[FreezinIce]

Originally Posted by Precarious

Mostly given up, to be honest. I think it's obvious I'm going to be lynched, and I've been busier the whole game than I anticipated. You can all kill Freezin tomorrow after my flip I suppose.

Honestly, it was fun (and funny) while it was happening, but I kind of wish one of the ITA shots had hit me, so at least we wouldn't have wasted another day on this nonsense. Even better would have been if my shot hit Freezin--but hey, that seems to be par for the course this game.

[Precarious]

That's a fancy looking restaurant. Wish I had a table there!

[Charu]

I'm just gonna organize what I understand, please correct me.

Freezin stated they were saving funnygurl before night, correct?

Precarious, if he's innocent, should've shot at Freezin (and he said so), correct?

If wolves have a roleblocker, which I would think they would since we haven't hit any yet, then they would've probably blocked Precarious if Precarious is town, correct?

So these two did these actions, correct?

Freezin --PROTECT--> Funnygurl

Precarious --SHOOT--> Freezin

Now we have 2 blocking claims, with Freezin stated they did protect Funnygurl and Precarious from above, correct?

...

And because Funnygurl flipped as her role, her information is 100% correct, which means one of 'em is lying through their teeth.

So, what' the likelier scenario here? Lets make a chain!

---

THE CHAIN

Cel --DISTRACT--> Freezin

Freezin --PROTECT--> FunnyGurl

Precairous --SHOOT--> Freezin

Wolf Roleblocker --BLOCK--> Precarious

Wolf --KILL--> Funnygurl

:::
So in this chain, Cel had put a distract thing in place on Freezin's slot which means any action that wolves would've done (besides shooting) would be nullified. However, this is the point of contingency since the kill did go through on FunnyGurl, and we know Cel is legit with this role considering FunnyGurl answered correctly with the video question.

If Freezin is a wolf, then it's pretty simple what happened. Freezin' is either a vanilla wolf, or a wolf that's confident that lynching them would be hard (since Freezin has been adamant about killing and lynching players without hesitation.) Fits with backpack shebang since he immediately took over as commander and reversed the order to shoot Haku instead of letting them live like backpack wished. I think he knew where he was going, he was going in super hot water with a fake claim that has yet to be verified and will very likely never be unless he's lynched or shot in the night.

I say he's got a chance of being a wolf in this scenario.

If Cel is a wolf, then that one's a bit more complicated (and he would have to be bussing right now which is... lol?). They're sort of a roleblocker, but they have to do it to a target and not the person doing it. Even then, they can't block shots no matter what. If the chain is to be believed, then Cel's role should've distract FunnyGurl's slot again then so Freezin's protect didn't go through. However that already throws a wrench seeing as how Freezin did not get anything (or mentioned it anyways), so that's out of the bag. No other claimed person has stated they've seen videos either, but that would out Cel. I suppose they could've just done nothing to not muddle with the waters for his wolf friends. But if that were the case, the chain would look like this

Freezin --PROTECT--> FunnyGurl
Precarious --SHOT--> Freezin
Wolf Roleblocker --BLOCK--> Precarious

Which doesn't change the events at all... I think Cel being the wolf here is very VERY unlikely, like less than 1% likely I think. Cel is not one of my top town's because of this analyzes I made, lmao.

If Precarious is a wolf in this scenario, well... then it just makes no sense with this chain, huh? Of course the chain would have to reflect that change.

Cel --DISTRACT--> Freezin
Freezin --PROTECT--> FunnyGurl
Wolf --KILL--> FunnyGurl

I will say, it is probably better for wolves to get rid of someone that can give info rather than someone who can just protect. HOWEVER, that's only if they know they can get away with it, which... once again, Cel distracted it.

So who's lying here? I think it's pointing more and more to Freezin.

Oh yeah, I also want to mentioned something. This is a 24 player game filled with PR's, right? Then why has there still just been...

ONE DEATH PER NIGHT

...What's to say there actually can't be a town vigi in the mix? No blue has died yet that showcased they have a vigi shot. Unless we're all suggesting with all these night actions being flung around that someone is continuously getting saved or blocked. I think this is not happening, if there's a town vigi (and no one has counterclaimed otherwise), then... it's actually probably Precarious.

...Holy moly, did I just unbias myself from Precarious? I think I did.

I think I'm on board a Freezin lynch now that I collected my thoughts in this post.

[Charu]

Guys, am I going on the wrong path? I'm not going crazy, am I?

[Charu]

Also, gross, I just made another big post, BLEH, GROSS

[Charu]

Not as gross as this though:

[Charu]

Actually, that's pretty cute

[Charu]

Originally Posted by Charu

Cel is not one of my top town's because of this analyzes I made, lmao.

I type very well.

Cel is NOW

[Celirra]

if we include freezin's claim as genuine, there's 2 unclaimed actions right? and 3 if we don't? there's a good chance that there's too much going on that we don't know about to get a straight answer of any action resolution frankly, especially given it's a mystery game (albeit not bastard according to the op, but might have more uniqueness)

[Charu]

Originally Posted by Celirra

if we include freezin's claim as genuine, there's 2 unclaimed actions right? and 3 if we don't? there's a good chance that there's too much going on that we don't know about to get a straight answer of any action resolution frankly, especially given it's a mystery game (albeit not bastard according to the op, but might have more uniqueness)

The only way I can see Precarious being a wolf now... is if wolves are in possession of two roles that can do the exact same thing. Which is roleblocking.

Such as...

Wolf Roleblocker 1 --BLOCK--> Cel
Wolf Roleblocker 2 --BLOCK--> Freezin
Wolf --KILL--> FunnyGurl

It's the only way I can imagine it.