Old 11-28-2020, 10:53 PM   #1981
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Default Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]

Yeah.
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Old 11-28-2020, 11:04 PM   #1982
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Default Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]



Wolf Matrix, based on self-reporting data
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Old 11-28-2020, 11:07 PM   #1983
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Default Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]

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if it's any consolation I don't think you're on the chopping block today

if I had to guess it looks like it's gonna be Plop vs. T-Force
this might be a lie

YoshL appears on 100% of the scum pool's scumlists, yet is never the #1 pick

This gives YoshL very high wolf PR equity
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Old 11-28-2020, 11:08 PM   #1984
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Default Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]

DBP what on Earth is that?

Can you explain that to me using small words?
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Old 11-28-2020, 11:10 PM   #1985
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Default Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]

sunfan is generally the most suspicious, and T-Force the least, which is kind of interesting, considering how this game has gone
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Old 11-28-2020, 11:13 PM   #1986
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Default Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]

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DBP what on Earth is that?

Can you explain that to me using small words?
Sure

I took each of the "top 3 wolf" lists from the scum pool and organized it into a chart. Each row in the chart represents that person's reads. A "3" is "most wolfy", a "1" is "least wolfy", gray cells are self-reads, green cells are those that didn't appear on that person's list.

So if you look at Row: YoshL and Column: Force, you see a 3, which means that YoshL has Force as top wolf.

The freq row indicates how frequently that column appeared on someone else's wolf list (e.g. YoshL appears on every single list except his own)

The Sum row is a sum of each column's values, to indicate a kind of overall suspicion momentum for each player
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Old 11-28-2020, 11:16 PM   #1987
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Default Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]

Don't worry about that too much, it's just a visual way to display the information each player gave earlier

Next, I'm gonna try to go through the thread and find mutual exclusions (i.e. "who almost certainly cannot be on a team together?")
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Old 11-28-2020, 11:19 PM   #1988
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Default Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]

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Don't worry about that too much, it's just a visual way to display the information each player gave earlier

Next, I'm gonna try to go through the thread and find mutual exclusions (i.e. "who almost certainly cannot be on a team together?")
As far as aggregating and interpreting the data goes----

Like I said, YoshL appears on every other player's list, but never strongly.

Freezin only appears on 50% of the lists, but each time with the strongest suspicion. So, sunfan and Plop both have "Freezin wolf" as a strong conviction.

sunfan is generally the most suspected.

T-Force is generally the least suspected.
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Old 11-28-2020, 11:20 PM   #1989
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Default Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]

Actually, gonna do dead people's reads first.
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Old 11-28-2020, 11:36 PM   #1990
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Default Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]

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this might be a lie
YoshL appears on 100% of the scum pool's scumlists, yet is never the #1 pick
This gives YoshL very high wolf PR equity
or the other world, where (still) the best thing people have is "yoshl PoE"
i think the matrix is cool, but also not examining it from a holistic point of view is literally skewing reasoning wrong from what you're saying here.
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Old 11-28-2020, 11:40 PM   #1991
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Default Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]

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or the other world, where (still) the best thing people have is "yoshl PoE"
i think the matrix is cool, but also not examining it from a holistic point of view is literally skewing reasoning wrong from what you're saying here.
yeah, it's more useful just as raw data, or in conjunction with other info
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Old 11-28-2020, 11:43 PM   #1992
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Default Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]

About Freezinice:

Way earlier in D0 he started a thunderdome between himself and FFA. How characteristic of him is this as either alignment? I can very well interpret this as, "I'm gonna feign machismo/confidence in this read I have so I appear more invested in solving. But I'm never gonna be in danger because I have numbers on my side"

In other words, the thunderdome is a performance of a logical gamble when in reality there's no risk--- but it's free town points
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Old 11-28-2020, 11:44 PM   #1993
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Default Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]

The weird (?) thing is that after that thunderdome didn't pan out, he ended up placing his vote on Ulli, even when FFA was still an option for a lynch
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Old 11-29-2020, 12:21 AM   #1994
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Default Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]

Some compiled reads of the dead:

FFA:

Quote:
active players I don't feel great about:
freezin,plop

less active players I feel mostly okay toward:
yoshl, raeko
That's about it. FFA thinks Freezin's read on Sunfan is bullshit:

Quote:
<to freezin:> it's not something I've ever attributed to sunfan and it's not something I've ever seen you attribute to sunfan

in fact it most closely reminded me of sunfan's vote and dip on WV in that other game- who was a wolf
so ye that's p much it
sunfan however refutes FFA's scumread on Freezin, and that seems to appease FFA a bit.

FFA doesn't vote this phase, and then dies.

Ulli:

She calls one of YoshL's D0 posts towny. When forced to pick between T-Force and FFA, she picks FFA, and then dies.

Xiz:

Quote:
I want to vote Ull simply because sunfan wont vote ull for just posting roles.
DBP will show up 20m before EOD
Funny/Force I see as T/W or T/T
haku off the table, feels towny
raeko super light towny, liked the "yeah i thought the same thing" quote, felt natural
YoshL saying "nah this isnt a mindmeld" to sunfan is really towny, so they are off the table

don't really care about anyone else
Voted for Ulli because he thought about a Ulli/sunfan wolf pairing. We know this isn't true, but might still reflect on sunfan as to how he defended her. Raeko light town, YoshL gets a strong townread based on a single post on D0.

For the mistrial EoD, he votes Ulli.

By the end of the phase he felt extremely strong that FG/T-Force aren't W/W. He said they might be T/W, but is leaning more towards T/T.

Then T-Force wagon started (FG had her vote there first. FG convinced YoshL to vote for T-Force, but FG eventually swapped off. YoshL and Haku stayed.). Xiz was suspicious of the growing momentum on T-Force all of a sudden. But we know that the only person left alive on the T-Force wagon is YoshL. Then Xiz dies.

FG:

She initially notes raeko town, and sunfan as "ok." This later grows into sunfan becoming a town read. She makes a remark about being unimpressed by Freezin, and that his reads list was "a bunch of nothing."

Towards EoD:

She votes T-Force, probably for the meme at first. As mentioned above, she sells YoshL on voting for T-Force, making him the second vote on a T-Force wagon.

Quote:
i think we're seeing the same thing

but alas t-force, we're basically never on the same team so you know i've gotta do this

surprised this is more of a one way thing though. where's the rivalry?
FG develops a real scumread on T-Force, worried that T-Force isn't playing along with the game. T-Force responds with something like, "that shitposting only applies for the first 24 hours" (is this even true?) and then things turn serious. This hurts FG's feelings and she moves her vote to Plopadop.

The next day, she gets shit over her swap to Plop. Response:

Quote:
plop is always shady to me, but what was really shady here was his insistence on an ffa lynch over the alternatives. i feel like he should've known that wasn't be the best move here

the ulli flip gives me more confidence in going after the people who decided to shade both of them early on
^I don't think she ever delivered on this promise, but it's a good idea. We know now that the KitB was T/T and this is useful in the context of a reread.

Shadow asks how the fuck to read Plopadop. FG response:

Quote:
wait really? i feel like he's rolled wolf quite a bit in the recent games i've played with him. the biggest thing i've observed from him is he's able to see through some of the bs misreads that people put out, which i guess shows some tmi
I'm guessing that a wolf Plop is more likely to make astute defenses of town players because... he knows they're town. This is worth checking out this phase.

Then she gets replaced.

Subaru:

Unfortunately Subaru really doesn't give us a lot, because he decided to ISO his own slot (???). This is the closest thing we have from him (a bit jumbled, from my notes):

Quote:
Top three town so far is

1. DBP
2. Freezin
3. somewhat Haku


Top three wolf is

1. Plop
2. ???
3. SOMEWHAT TF.

I'm not 100% certain TF could be one, but based on DBP's wall regarding the worlds between FG/TF and TF/Plop, I'm more convinced on the side that Plop could be one. I put "somewhat" for TF because the biggest reason outside of DBP's wall is because I've seen him in very many scumreads on top of that.

I left #2 blank because in all honesty I haven't been able to think of three candidates.

Haku I'm willing to put townlean for now because although he's had a few kerfuffles, I feel he's trustworthy to me, at least. I'm still keepin that redflip shenanigans you were tryna pull with Shadow a while back in mind, though.

I'm trusting DBP because he's one of the few people I saw that proposed stuff outside of the TF/FG combo, despite one of the other combos still including TF.

Freezin in all honesty is just a gutread. I don't have very much reasoning behind it. I'm still not

Other than that, I'm gonna take Shadow's advice and just chill in the present for now cuz I need to get actual present info.
Later on, I think Plop responded with a big wallpost. This wallpost brings Subaru's read on Plop back to null, and he starts to grow more suspicious of YoshL. Then he dies.

---------------------------------

Haku's ISO is... gonna have to be its own thing. But you will notice a very consistent trend amongst the dead people: Plop is consistently scum.
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Old 11-29-2020, 12:27 AM   #1995
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Default Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]

FWIW, every single person in this game (besides sunfan) has expressed suspicion of Plopadop and never really changed their minds on him.

(I'll have to go back and make sure I'm not wrong about sunfan. But regardless.)

Plop is like, 90% wolf here, imo.
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Old 11-29-2020, 12:28 AM   #1996
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Default Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]

I have to say...

Fatfuck the Death Bringer isn't exactly the name that strikes fear in the hearts of men

I'll be incredibly sad if it's just a string of unfortunate events and he just happens to be town

But I doubt it.
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Old 11-29-2020, 12:29 AM   #1997
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Default Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]

Worth noting that everybody has just been hilariously wrong about most of the game so far. I had to splice out so many scumreads on Ulli, Haku, Xiz, FG...

Not gonna let that affect how I view their reads though. Even a broken clock is right twice a day.
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Old 11-29-2020, 12:32 AM   #1998
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Default Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]

If you ISO Haku it gets even funnier

He has thrown almost every dead townie into wolf worlds
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Old 11-29-2020, 12:32 AM   #1999
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Default Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]

Quote:
Originally Posted by Hakulyte View Post
Oh I think I see why I have this disconnect with you Plop in this game.

Basically, you're asking players questions, but I haven't seen you translate that into concerns or something to bring on the table.

So, fmpov it looks like you're solving, but we can't see what or why.

So, the first reflex here is to question if you're even solving something.

I think the big post should help with that.
A thing from Haku
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Old 11-29-2020, 12:33 AM   #2000
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Default Re: TWG 198 - TWGabout Succession [GAME THREAD]

I guess I should read that giant Plop post again... There could be some insight and solving tools in there if he's revealed as a wolf
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